Tag Archives: market correction

Sentiment is finally breaking. Once it breaks fully, the ride downward will likely be very sharp, quick and brutal for everyone caught unprepared.

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So, did the nauseating last few months of 2018 signal the end of the secular bull market? Or is the rebound that kicked-off 2019 a sign that the uptrend is still intact? Or it is just a dead-cat bounce?

Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist and chief editor of Real Investment Advice, returns to the podcast with fresh data that suggests the bear market that emerged late last year is still in play.

Of greater concern to him, though, is where things are headed from here.

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The stock market is now 70% higher than it was as the previous bubble peak immediately preceding the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

Reflect for a moment how painful the crash from Sept 2008-March 2009 was. How much more painful will a crash from today's much dizzier heights be?

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When it comes, change happens swiftly. And life after — for better or worse — is forever different.

I've witnessed this time and time again since co-founding Peak Prosperity. And pretty much every time, I notice that the vast majority of people — including many of the the watchful and preparation-minded folks who read this site — are caught by surprise.

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Running PeakProsperity.com requires me to read and process a lot of data on a daily basis. As it's hard to digest it all in real-time, I keep a running list of charts, tables and articles that catch my attention, to return to when I have the time to give them my full attention.

Lately, that list has been getting quite long. And it's largely full of indicators that concern me, signals that the long era of "extend and pretend" in today's markets may finally be at its terminus.

Like crows circling overhead, everyday brings with it new worrisome statistics that portend an ill change ahead. Indeed, these signs are increasing so quickly now that it's hard not to feel like Tippi Hedren in Hitchcock's classic The Birds.

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Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far — evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward.

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This week, Chris talks with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank. We wanted to see through the eyes of a professional economist, which Steen kindly allowed us to do.

Steen agrees that central banks have largely failed in their misguided attempts to boost growth via trickle-down programs. Pretty much all the benefits of the recent years of money printing have gone to the upper echelons, with the true engines of growth and jobs — small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) — getting very little.

As a result, financial asset prices have been driven up too high, which Steen anticipates will correct at some point in 2014; likely by 30% or so.

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