Tag Archives: Lumber

  • News

    More Inflation Signals, Plus Democracy 2.0.

    Weekly Market Commentary 15 January 2022
    by davefairtex

    Saturday, January 15, 2022, 4:48 PM

    17

    Economic numbers this week: First, consumer sentiment (UMCSENT).  It looks pretty awful – lowest sentiment levels since 2012. Moves like this don’t happen very often, and they precede market “corrections.” Unlike retail sales, consumer sentiment has not recovered back to pre-pandemic levels. Second, retail sales (RSXFS); in December, it fell -2.03% m/m, which is a…

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  • News
    inflation

    Inflation – and Galileo

    Weekly Market Commentary 12 December 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, December 12, 2021, 1:59 PM

    32

    So, the markets were mostly waiting for the (Friday) CPI this week: the print was +0.78% m/m, which is a 9.3%/year annualized rate. It was slightly higher than expected, and overall, the worst since 1982 – even with the manipulated-in-1992 CPI, which has been carefully crafted to remove signs of inflation from the inflation-indicator. Even…

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  • News

    OMG, Omicron!

    Weekly Market Commentary 26 November 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, November 28, 2021, 7:03 PM

    29

    The price movements this week were entirely dominated by what happened on Friday. OMICRON! Let’s start with crude oil. Check out the $10 drop in the price of the master resource on the half-day of trading on Friday. It was a remarkable move. Crude is now in a reasonably strong downtrend. On Tuesday, there was…

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  • News

    Recession-flation, Anti-War Ballads

    Weekly Market Commentary 29 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 31, 2021, 4:00 PM

    21

    We saw some negative economic data this week: Auto/light truck sales: -6.8% m/m, -33.9% y/y. Auto sales continue to plunge. “Shortages”. The drop in auto sales is nothing short of spectacular: peak of 18m in early 2021, currently at 12m. GDP: +1.87% q/q, +8.78% y/y. That sounds good, but the expectation was for a vastly…

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  • News

    Bad Payrolls, Destroy the Village

    Weekly Market Update 3 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Monday, September 6, 2021, 9:56 AM

    28

    Market Commentary Payrolls was the market mover this week – they came in a lot lower than expected [headline +235k], still perhaps 5M below pre-pandemic levels. Wolf Richter has a good article breaking down why things haven’t gone so well for payrolls. No, it’s not “delta”. As I’ve said before, if you pay people not…

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