Tag Archives: hedging

  • Insider

    Positioning For A Downturn

    Our guide to wealth preservation
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, January 28, 2020, 11:11 AM

    9

    Executive Summary

    • The outlook from Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor
    • 6 strategies for positioning your portfolio for the next market downturn
    • Deciding which strategies are most appropriate for you

    If you have not yet read Part 1: How Will The Coronavirus Impact The Markets?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    This is an updated version of Peak Prosperity’s guide to protecting your portfolio from downside risk.

    If you currently own stocks and/or mutual funds (privately, in a retirement account, or via a promised pension), this report is particularly relevant to you.

    Whether you’re looking for good places to park cash safely, or you have limited (or no) experience dealing with  such solutions as stops, limit orders, puts, calls, futures and inverse funds, this guide explains each in layman’s terms, along with context as to when each may be relevant given your goals.

    We feel that safety of your assets is paramount at this time. We highly advise prioritize focusing on “return OF capital” vs pursuing “return ON capital” given today’s dangerously vulnerable market conditions.

    So, when getting started, it’s critical to focus first on… (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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  • Insider

    Resuming The Crash Position

    Actions to take before the market breaks
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, September 27, 2019, 2:30 PM

    12

    Executive Summary

    • My recent portfolio changes & the rationale behind each
    • 6 strategies for positioning your portfolio for the next market downturn
    • Deciding which strategies are most appropriate for you

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Realistically, What’s Left To Power Asset Prices Higher?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    This is an update to the premium report Assume The Crash Position issued in March of this year. It details the changes I’m now making in my portfolio, which  build off of the logic used in the two earlier short positions I notified Peak Prosperity insiders about.

    The first was back in fall of 2018, which yielded a 50%+ return when the market fell between October and September.

    The second yielded similar 50%+ gains when stocks fell in May of this year.

    But before continuing further, let me make a few things absolutely clear. This is NOT personal financial advice. This material is for educational purposes only, and as an aid for you to discuss these options more intelligently with your professional financial adviser(s) before taking any action.

    (If you do not have a financial advisor or do not feel comfortable with your current adviser’s expertise with the investment vehicles discussed in this Part 2, then consider scheduling a free portfolio review/consultation with our endorsed advisor)

    Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

    Ok, with that said, here are the specific new positions I have taken in my portfolio… (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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  • Insider
    Traveller.com.au

    Assume The Crash Position

    Actions to take before the market breaks
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, March 15, 2019, 4:17 PM

    10

    Executive Summary

    • My recent portfolio changes & the rationale behind each
    • 6 strategies for positioning your portfolio for the next market downturn
    • Deciding which strategies are most appropriate for you

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Realistically, What’s Left To Power Asset Prices Higher?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    This is an update to the premium report Assume The Crash Position issued in March of this year. It details the changes I’m now making in my portfolio, which  build off of the logic used in the two earlier short positions I notified Peak Prosperity insiders about.

    The first was back in fall of 2018, which yielded a 50%+ return when the market fell between October and September.

    The second yielded similar 50%+ gains when stocks fell in May of this year.

    But before continuing further, let me make a few things absolutely clear. This is NOT personal financial advice. This material is for educational purposes only, and as an aid for you to discuss these options more intelligently with your professional financial adviser(s) before taking any action.

    (If you do not have a financial advisor or do not feel comfortable with your current adviser’s expertise with the investment vehicles discussed in this Part 2, then consider scheduling a free portfolio review/consultation with our endorsed advisor)

    Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

    Ok, with that said, here are the specific new positions I have taken in my portfolio… (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

    Enroll Now
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    Read More »

  • Blog
    livelifehappy.com

    Better A Year Early Than A Day Too Late

    Preparation only has value if it's done in advance
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, August 22, 2017, 5:42 AM

    7

    When it comes, change happens swiftly. And life after — for better or worse — is forever different.

    I've witnessed this time and time again since co-founding Peak Prosperity. And pretty much every time, I notice that the vast majority of people — including many of the the watchful and preparation-minded folks who read this site — are caught by surprise.

    Read More »

  • Blog
    Dreamstime

    The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble

    So it's important to watch him very closely
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 19, 2016, 6:01 AM

    14

    Those of you who took an Economics class in college may remember the saying that prices are set "at the margin". That's a fancy way to say that prices are set by the person (or people) willing to pay the most.

    This person willing to pay top dollar is called the "marginal buyer". Most of us don't really think about him, but he (or she) is very, very important.

    Why? Because the marginal buyer not only determines price levels, but also their stability and degree of volatility. The behavior of the marginal buyer, as well as the degree of competition for his/her "top dog" spot, sets the prices of nearly every asset class held by today's investors.

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  • Insider

    How To Beat Inflation

    Protecting the purchasing power of your wealth
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, July 29, 2016, 7:31 PM

    29

    Executive Summary

    • Taking Advantage of Subsidies
    • The Importance of Adding New Income Streams
    • Income-Producing Assets
    • Hedges, Cost-Controls & Other Strategies

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we compared official rates of inflation with hard data from the real world, and found that it’s not just the cost of burritos that has soared over 100% while inflation has supposedly been trundling along at 1% or 2% per year. The real killer is the soaring cost of big-ticket essentials such as rent, higher education and healthcare.

    So what can we do about it? There are only a few strategies that can make a real difference: either qualify for subsidies (i.e. lower household income), own assets and income streams that keep up with real-world inflation, or radically reduce the cost structure of big-ticket household expenses.

    Qualify for Subsidies

    Though it runs counter to our philosophy of self-reliance, we have to address incentives offered by the system we inhabit. One powerful set of incentives is entitlement subsidies for lower income households: rent subsidies (Section 8), healthcare subsidies (Medicaid and ACA/Obamacare), college tuition waivers, food subsidies (food stamps), free school lunches, and so on.

    These programs were designed to aid households that cannot earn more income, but for households on the borderline between paying full freight (no subsidies) and receiving some subsidies, it makes sense to work less, earn less and qualify for substantial subsidies.

    I am not recommending gaming the system, I am simply noting that subsidies exist and those who earn just above qualifying incomes are in effect punished for earning a bit too much.

    In many cases, we assume subsidies are reserved for “poor people” and we don’t qualify. For entitlements such as food stamps (SNAP), this is generally the case. But other programs offer some subsidies to households with incomes that are substantial…

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  • Insider

    How My Personal Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now

    You've asked. I answer.
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, June 24, 2016, 8:46 PM

    37

    Executive Summary

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Fortunes Will Be Made & Lost When Capital Flees To Safety available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    So, given the conclusions in Part 1 — as well as the larger risks to the economy and financial markets that we analyze daily here at Peak Prosperity — how am I positioning my own personal investments?

    I get asked this question often. Often enough that I'm deciding to open the kimono here and let it drop to the ground. Everyone interested to look will get the full frontal.

    Before I do though, let me make a few things absolutely clear. This is NOT personal financial advice. The investment choices I've made are based on my own unique situation, financial goals and risk tolerance. And I may change these choices at any moment given new market developments. What's appropriate for me may not be for you, so DO NOT blindly duplicate what I'm doing.

    As always, we recommend working with a professional financial adviser to build an investment plan customized to your own needs and objectives. (If you do not have a financial adviser or do not feel comfortable with your current adviser's expertise in the market risks we discuss here at PeakProsperity.com, consider scheduling a free consultation with our endorsed adviser)

    Suffice it to say, any investment ideas sparked by this report should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

    OK, with that out of the way, let's get started. I'll walk through the asset classes I own and my rationale for holding each.

    The strategy behind my portfolio allocation is of my own devise, though it has been influenced in no small part by the good folks at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity's aforementioned endorsed financial adviser.

    At a high level, it has been constructed to address my strongly-held conclusions that:

    • Prices of most asset classes are dangerously overvalued
    • The risk of another economic contraction on par with (or greater than) the Great Recession within the next 2-4 years is uncomfortably high
    • The most likely path is we will experience a short period of coming deflation, followed soon after by one of high inflation as central banks starting printing currency without restraint (the Ka-POOM theory)
    • Capital will increasingly want to flow from paper assets (tertiary wealth) into tangible ones (primary and secondary wealth)
    • This is a time to prioritize protecting capital (defense) over speculating on how to grow it (offense)
    • Diversification is wise: just be emotionally prepared that some of your bets, by definition, will not pay off
    • In today's world of financial repression, no asset class is truly "safe". As such, asset performance is all relative.

    This is not a swing-for-the-fences portfolio. It's much more of a prepare-for-the-storm approach…

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  • Podcast

    New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

    Preserving your financial capital
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, January 24, 2016, 5:16 PM

    9

    Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

    So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far — evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

    We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward.

    Read More »

  • Insider
    Oksana Shufrych/Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: A Financial Adviser’s View Of The Recent Market Turbulence

    New Harbor weighs in
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 28, 2015, 6:26 AM

    14

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and New Harbor Financial discuss the recent gyrations of the market.

    • Are we witnessing a secular trend reversal?
    • What's likely to happen next?
    • How can prudent investors position themselves now?
    • Where can shelter best be taken?
    • Is it time for risk-seekers to place bets?

    All these questions and more are addressed in this podcast. Needless to say, this is one of the most challenging times to protect capital in living memory. 

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