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Tag Archives: GDP

  • Blog
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    Who’s Going To Eat The Losses?

    The only question that matters regarding today's markets
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, September 9, 2017, 3:25 AM

    44

    Younger generations that are being asked (goaded?) to step into an increasingly flawed future begin to resist. Which is completely understandable. They have nothing to gain if the status quo continues.

    At the same time, the older generations mostly just settle into a stubborn insistence that everything will be fine if everyone will just do more of precisely what got us into the mess in the first place. Younger people should step up to make sure Medicare/Social Security/pensions remain fully funded, and buy the financial assets and homes of downsizing seniors at top dollar. The boomers have everything to lose if the status quo changes.

    What happens when a culture’s dominant narratives are not just unsatisfactory, but entirely unworkable? 

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  • Podcast

    Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

    Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, August 7, 2017, 6:42 PM

    23

    "The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

    So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

    We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

    Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time.

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  • Blog
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    Bad Models Result In Terrible Outcomes

    Things are worsening because we pursue the wrong policies
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, July 15, 2017, 3:38 AM

    18

    Recently I spent a month in Buenos Aries.  I went there to study the people, the culture and the economy of a prosperous land, filled with kind, well educated people.

    One key lesson was this; bad policies can ruin every advantage you might have had.

    While not as bad off as it was in 2002 when people filled the streets banging pots and pans in protest of their economically ruined lives, the place is still clearly depressed as are most of its people. 

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  • Blog
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    The Looming Energy Shock

    The next oil crisis will arrive in 3 years or less
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, July 1, 2017, 2:10 AM

    37

    There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.

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  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: The Approaching Minsky Moment

    The world is unprepared for the reset heading our way
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, June 22, 2017, 1:00 AM

    19

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • A Study In Failure Of The State
      • Chris shares his on-the-ground observations from So. America
    • It Can Happen Here
      • Mish shares his on-the-ground observations from Illinois
    • Virtually All The Macroeconomic Data Is Miserable
      • Yet the Fed & the markets are acting like everything's great
    • The Approaching Minsky Moment
      • It's a matter of if, not when

    This week's Off The Cuff discussion is an interesting one. Both Chris and Mish have front-row seats to two failing governments — Chris in Argentina, and Mish in Illinois. It feels to them like they are getting a preview of the economic pain soon to come to the rest of the world.

    Both are *very* concerned that citizens and investors across the globe are being duped by the (lack of) signals and messages today's ""markets"" are providing. Looking at the steady drumbeat of bad & worsening macroeconomic data, as well as the immense gap between fundamentals and asset prices, Chris and Mish are as confident as they have ever been that a massive painful reset is nigh. But too many of our leaders, and too much of the public, remain complacent/ignorant (willfully or not) regarding this risk. 

    Their conclusion? The world is woefully unprepared for the Minsky moment headed its way.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

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  • Insider

    Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse

    And why it's signalling a coming recession, likely this year
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 16, 2017, 11:23 PM

    22

    Executive Summary

    • The case of the missing credit impulse
    • The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
    • How the situation is deteriorating fast
    • Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse

    An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth. 

    It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017.  The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.

    My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt. 

    Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.

    Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…

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  • Blog
    entrepreneur.com

    The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles?

    A worsening shortfall in new credit creation
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 16, 2017, 11:23 PM

    27

    Global macro economic data has been weak for many years, but there’s now a very real chance of a world-wide recession happening in 2017.

    Why? A dramatic and worsening shortfall in new credit creation.

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  • Podcast

    Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

    The world economic engine is slowing to a standstill
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, June 11, 2017, 10:46 PM

    1

    Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, returns to the podcast this week to share with us the warning signs of slowing economic growth he's seeing in major markets all over the world.

    In his view, the world economy is sputtering badly. So badly, that he's confident predicting a global recession by 2018 — or sooner.

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  • Insider
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    Get Ready For The Coming Massive Correction

    One we may never fully recover from
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 9, 2017, 11:46 PM

    34

    Executive Summary

    • The economic data is getting darker fast
    • The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
    • Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
    • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us

    Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.

    In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.

    For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion.  The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.

    But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.

    And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…

     

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  • Blog
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    Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust

    It's just not possible to print our way to prosperity
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 9, 2017, 11:38 PM

    13

    As much as I try, I simply cannot jump on the bandwagon that says that printing up money out of thin air has any long-term utility for an economy.

    It's just too clear to me that doing so presents plenty of dangers, due what we might call 'economic gravity': What goes up, must also come down.

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