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Tag Archives: GDP

  • Insider
    Wikimedia

    Why This Better Work

    Because if it doesn't, the aftermath looks terrifying
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, April 19, 2019, 4:20 PM

    15

    Executive Summary

    • China's critical role in keeping the party going (and why China is in a weaker position this time)
    • Despite current stock prices, the economic data is awful and fast getting worse
    • A recession is near-unavoidable at this point
    • What to do if you're not in the top 0.1%

    If you have not yet read Part 1: It's 2016 All Over Again. Or Is It?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    I know that it seems as if the US equity markets cannot ever go down and, truthfully, those indexes receive a ton of help from the Fed, the media, and from corporate buybacks. 

    The trouble, as always, when it begins will not be detected in the large, successful companies first.  Amazon and APPL will be among the last to go down.

    The trouble will start at the outside and work its way inwards.  This “outside in” phenomenon is pretty robust and it has not yet been repealed by the interventionistas at the Fed.

    In the US we might look to the small cap stocks to give way first, and I think they have.  It's in that universe where we will find an outsized majority of the zombie companies. 

    From a fundamental standpoint the small caps are a certified balance sheet mess.  Their net debt has been on a 40-degree, ruler-straight rise since 2010 even as their EBIDTA has risen at only a 10-degree trajectory.  The current gap is eye popping.

    This is a huge increase in debt, and it makes these companies especially vulnerable to any economic downturn or rise in interest rates.

    Accordingly, while all eyes are on the Nasdaq powering to a brand new all time high, the small caps in the Russell 2000 are definitely not making new highs and seem to be sneaking out the back door.

    If you are looking for a place to short US equities at the index level, the small caps are the …

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  • Blog
    EHSToday

    The Bull(y) Rally

    Something unnatural is going on
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, April 14, 2019, 3:00 PM

    17

    “A bully is always a coward.”

    ~ Thomas Chandler Haliburton

    The current market rally is like a playground bully; shoving to the ground anyone in its path.

    But like all bullies, the braggadocio belies an underlying cowardice.

    Those in charge of the status quo must be absolutely terrified to resort to the unnatural lengths they are going to right now to keep the current rally intact.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Further Exploring Our Collapse Trajectory

    Chris builds on the insights of his recent report
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, February 7, 2019, 3:31 PM

    5

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris speaks on:

    • The Immorality Of Central Planning
      • The banks are stealing our future
    • The Poor 99.9%
      • The system is now geared solely for the 0.1%'s interests
    • Our Money Or Our Lives
      • The real damage is happening across our critical ecosystems
    • This Will End
      • Remember that collapse is a process. And local mileage may vary.

    Chris recorded this podcast shortly after completing his recent report on the in-process collapse occurring in the key systems around us. Economically, envrionmentally, socially — it's happening everywhere. Chris spend an hour exploring the collapse dynamic further, ending with this succinct prediction…

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Blog

    A Survival Guide For 2019

    How to safely navigate the 'Year Of Instability'
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 1, 2019, 3:24 PM

    40

    With the bursting of the Everything Bubble, we declared last year as the 'Year Everything Changed'. This will be the 'Year of Instability', possibly preceding an upcoming 'Year Of Woe' in 2020.

    But look, we're not saying the world is the process of ending imminently. It's just that we've entered the part of the timeline when things are going to start to get really rocky.

    And we think it's much more useful to think of 2019 as the 'Year Resilience Matters'. It shifts the focus away from fear and instead towards the many things you can do to protect yourself and those you care about – and even to position yourself to prosper through the coming challenges.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Hall Of Mirrors

    Our media is so distorted, where can you find truth?
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 4, 2018, 2:39 PM

    3

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and James Howard Kunstler discuss a whole slew of topics I don't have time to summarize, as our 2018 seminar starts in an hour.

    Enjoy!

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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  • Daily Digest
    Image by Travis Isaacs, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 1/18 – What Volatility Looks Like, Measuring What Makes A Country Great

    by DailyDigest

    Thursday, January 18, 2018, 3:36 PM

    2
    • Why governments are broken – and how to fix them
    • So That’s What Volatility Looks Like
    • Here’s What Historically Happens to Stocks When Bull Markets End
    • Forecasting Intelligence: My Predictions For 2018
    • How can you measure what makes a country great?
    • Big Brother on wheels: Why your car company may know more about you than your spouse.
    • Ahead Of The Pack: What Sets Energy Innovators Apart?
    • China is planting 6.6 million hectares of new forest — almost the size of Ireland
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  • Blog
    Victor Moussa/Shutterstock

    The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital

    How to avoid making it
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, September 16, 2017, 12:47 AM

    2

    Permanent impairment of capital is the cardinal sin of investing.

    Well, today's markets present a clear and present danger of coming capital impairment for those who don't take prudent action in advance of a market downturn. Don't be guilty of inaction.

     

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  • Blog
    studiovin/Shutterstock

    Who’s Going To Eat The Losses?

    The only question that matters regarding today's markets
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, September 9, 2017, 3:25 AM

    44

    Younger generations that are being asked (goaded?) to step into an increasingly flawed future begin to resist. Which is completely understandable. They have nothing to gain if the status quo continues.

    At the same time, the older generations mostly just settle into a stubborn insistence that everything will be fine if everyone will just do more of precisely what got us into the mess in the first place. Younger people should step up to make sure Medicare/Social Security/pensions remain fully funded, and buy the financial assets and homes of downsizing seniors at top dollar. The boomers have everything to lose if the status quo changes.

    What happens when a culture’s dominant narratives are not just unsatisfactory, but entirely unworkable? 

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  • Podcast

    Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

    Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, August 7, 2017, 6:42 PM

    23

    "The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

    So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

    We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

    Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time.

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  • Blog
    Wikimedia.org

    Bad Models Result In Terrible Outcomes

    Things are worsening because we pursue the wrong policies
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, July 15, 2017, 3:38 AM

    18

    Recently I spent a month in Buenos Aries.  I went there to study the people, the culture and the economy of a prosperous land, filled with kind, well educated people.

    One key lesson was this; bad policies can ruin every advantage you might have had.

    While not as bad off as it was in 2002 when people filled the streets banging pots and pans in protest of their economically ruined lives, the place is still clearly depressed as are most of its people. 

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