Tag Archives: Fuzzy Numbers

  • Blog

    New Martenson Report Ready – Tackling the Deficit

    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, March 21, 2009, 4:23 PM

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    This report for subscribers goes hand-in-hand with the Rolling Stone article linked and discussed below. Together, they point out the urgency of our current situation and that the continuation of the status quo behaviors of protecting the banking profits of well-connected insiders and continuing to be less than forthright with ourselves (Fuzzy Numbers) are rapidly diminishing the prospects for a gentle and favorable outcome.

    Here’s the opening:

    Executive Summary

    • US federal deficits reported to be $9.3 trillion over the next decade
    • Fuzzy Accounting means these deficits are actually vastly under reported
    • Actual deficits closer to $6 trillion per year, or $60 trillion over the next decade
    • Deficits defined and explained
    • Risk of a dollar collapse only increasing
    • You need to step up your personal efforts at mitigating the potential impacts of a US currency crisis

    The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the fiscal deficits of the federal government are going to be a lot larger than previously estimated. This news was taken in stride by the financial markets, especially the FOREX markets where the dollar is traded, but it will only be a matter of time before these massive deficits are recognized for what they are – signs of terminal illness for the financial prospects of the US, and, by extension, the dollar itself.

    It is vital that you understand the true extent of the illness, and the ways in which we systematically sugar-coat and under report the true magnitude of the situation by the use of Fuzzy Numbers – in this case, more accurately described as Fuzzy Accounting.

    In this report I will explain how to interpret the reported deficit, demonstrate the actual size of the true deficit, and then make the case that you should seriously consider stepping up your personal efforts at preparing for an uncertain future.

    Read More »

  • Blog

    Daily Digest – Feb 15

    by Davos

    Saturday, February 14, 2009, 9:12 PM

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    • SEC?! Took 5 Minutes to figure it out
    • Markopolos Letter, 2005 (Repost)
    • Big Numbers (Hat Tip Patrick Brown)
    • Official Unemployment Rate, BLS Broadest and SGS Alternate (Shadow Stats)
    • Geithner Reassures G-7 on Bank Plan, Is Urged to Act (Update1) 
    • Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Dubai Spirals Down
    • GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid
    • Financial Sense News Hour February 14, 2009
    • Obama Presidential Address – 2/14/2009 (Video)
    • Recovery.gov 

    Read More »

  • Blog

    Daily Digest – Feb 1

    by Davos

    Sunday, February 1, 2009, 12:28 AM

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    • Roubini Sees Global Gloom After Davos Vindication
    • Obama pushes economic plan; cloud over health pick 
    • Violent clashes in Russia as angry protesters call for Putin to resign over economy
    • FSN
      News Hour Part II Warren Brussee, "The Great Depression of Debt,
      Survival Techniques for Every Investor"
    • Despite layoffs, federal work force is growing
    • Macy’s (M) Workers May Face More Large Layoffs 
    • WSJ Video, GDP 3.8% Skewed by Inventory
    • General Mills says more people eating at home  

    Read More »

  • Blog

    New Podcast Ready for Subscribers

    by Chris Martenson

    Sunday, January 11, 2009, 1:12 PM

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    The next podcast is up and ready for subscribers.  This second podcast went better than the first from a production standpoint, although I already have a raft of ideas for how to improve the third.

    In this one, Becca Martenson joins me as the co-host.

    As always, keep your questions coming!  They are the best part.

    Description:

    In this podcast entitled The Last Great Bubble, Chris discusses market activity for the past week,  employment and unemployment data, and the possibility of another great bubble in bonds hiding in plain sight before addressing subscriber questions.

    If a last great bubble lurks in our near future,  then an enormous advantage exists for those that can either step aside or take temporary advantage of its bursting.

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  • Blog

    Federal Debt beginning to “go vertical”

    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, January 10, 2009, 12:42 AM

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    In the magazine The Economist, they recently reported this interesting bit of news:

    Federal Debt could go to 400% of GDP

    On January 7th the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan outfit, released projections that show the financial crash and the resulting recession are already wreaking havoc with America’s finances. It reckons that the budget deficit will soar from $455 billion in fiscal 2008 (which ended last September 30th) to an astonishing $1.2 trillion in the current year. At 8.3% that would be the most as a share of gross domestic product since the second world war.

    But the underlying picture is worse for several reasons. First, it does not include any estimate of the cost of Mr Obama’s planned fiscal stimulus, which he will seek from Congress soon after being inaugurated. Second, the CBO assumes all of George Bush’s tax cuts will expire as scheduled at the end of next year and that the Alternative Minimum Tax, a parallel levy aimed at the wealthy, is allowed to ensnare a growing share of the middle class each year.

    One thing to understand about even the horrendous sounding “8.3% of GDP deficit” is that it is vastly understated. First, as they note in the article, not everything is being counted, such as the cost of the stimulus plan.

    But second, even if such excluded costs were counted, it’s important to note that the way the government reports its fiscal condition would be illegal for any public company.

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