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Tag Archives: Foreclosures

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    The Forces That Will Reverse Housing’s Recent Gains

    Get ready for the "poverty effect"
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, February 25, 2013, 9:56 PM

    29

    Executive Summary

    • Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
    • The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
    • The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
    • Why demographics do not support rising prices

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.

    In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.

    Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns

    As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.

    Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.

    But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 1/9 – Risks from U.S. Debt, Banks Slow Foreclosure Pace, BP to Cut Alaska Oil Production

    by DailyDigest

    Sunday, January 9, 2011, 4:00 PM

    0
    • Greenspan Warns of Risks From U.S. Debt
    • U.S. Stock Investors Ready For Earnings Start
    • Yellen Says Fed Asset Purchases Avert Deflation, to Create 3 Million Jobs
    • A Tale of 2 Employment Surveys, at a Glance
    • Facing Scrutiny, Banks Slow Pace of Foreclosures
    • BP to Cut Alaskan Oil Production
    • Duke Is Said to Be Near Deal to Buy Progress Energy

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 10/23 – Drowning or Waiving, Laurence Kotlikoff on the Fed, Foreclosure Fairy Dust

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, October 23, 2010, 2:38 PM

    0
    • Fannie and Freddie May Need Infusion
    • Drowning Or Waiving
    • Problem For Banks: Due Process
    • Foreclosure Fairy Dust
    • Lawrence Kotlikoff – The Fed And Treasury’s Actions Are Equivalent To Child Abuse
    • Thank G20 It’s Friday!
    • Screwflation Nation
    • Oil Sands Effort Turns on a Fight Over a Road

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  • Blog

    Housing and Wealth

    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, September 22, 2009, 3:22 PM

    0

    A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

    LinkHousing and Wealth

    There are several economic issues and data sets that we are tracking closely here on a daily and weekly basis because they have the best opportunity to help us illuminate the path for a few more feet.

    One has been the flow of money into and out of the US.  There we’ll continue to track and explain the mechanisms while keeping a firm eye on the dollar and interest rate (via Treasuries) pair.

    Another has been the various government and Federal Reserve programs to inject money into the economy and financial institutions, respectively, as these maneuvers have distortive effects on the rest of the data. 

    But the main driver from a consumer standpoint has been housing.  Every so often we dive into that area pretty deeply and this week we head into housing and where we currently stand with respect to prices, inventory, liquidity, and demand.  

    This is part one of a two part report.

    (Comments turned off here, leave them in the posting further down the main page…)

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  • Blog

    It’s Not Over – The Collapse in Household Credit Says So

    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 11, 2009, 2:22 AM

    0

    A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

    Link:  It’s Not Over – The Collapse in Household Credit Says So

    A snippet:

    Total credit market debt has more than doubled since the start of 2000 and it is this growth that is required to keep everything roughly on track. Quite perversely, and somewhat contrary to all the noise about "malfunctioning credit markets," total credit market debt is up $371 billion over the prior quarter and $958 billion over the past two quarters.

    Interestingly, you will notice that in the chart above that total credit market debt seems largely unfazed by the credit market troubles that began in 2007 and blossomed in 2008. So what does it mean when the NYT offers the wisdom of experts who say that the credit markets are much healthier than they were?  From a macro-perspective, nothing appears wrong at all.

    But there’s a very interesting story lurking beneath the waves…

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – August 7

    by Davos

    Friday, August 7, 2009, 2:53 PM

    0
    • Deutsche Bank: Construction Loan Defaults Coming
    • 16 Million Homeowners Underwater
    • Foreclosures: One Giant Wave, Still Building
    • On how many different levels is this statement idiotic?
    • $75 Billion In New Treasuries On Deck
    • 2nd U.S. Bank-For-Businesses Facing Bankruptcy
    • Shadow Inventory
    • 2 Trillion in Deficits and House Orders Up Three Elite Jets
    • ICN, Audit the Fed and 18 Million Vacant Homes (Video, H/T iDoctor)
    • Jim Sinclair (Sudio H/T HuckleJohn)
    • Recessions Over: 34,000,000 Use Food Stamps First for the U.S.
    • Please ‘Google’ Fannie Mae seeks $10.7B in US aid after 2Q loss (Due to AP restrictions)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – July 17

    by Davos

    Friday, July 17, 2009, 3:00 PM

    0
    • Ratigan and Riholtz Discuss Goldman (Video)
    • The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst
    • Social Security spends $700,000 on Phoenix conference
    • NYC: 57% Tax for Top Earners
    • California tax officials: Legal pot would rake in $1.4B
    • Foreclosures rise 15 percent in first half of 2009
    • Poor in Colorado may get free phones
    • Cash-poor Connecticut may sell land, buildings
    • Hedge Fund Buys 5 Billion in Gold Bullion
    • What’s the Real CPI?

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  • Blog

    Free Podcast

    by Chris Martenson

    Sunday, June 21, 2009, 9:06 PM

    0

    Here is another gem from the archives – a podcast called Subscriber Questions. This early podcast contains a lot of information that is still relevant months later, and it is well worth a listen.  I am making this podcast available free to all registered users.  In this podcast from February 2009, reader questions are addressed, including the following topics and more:

    • Investing in foreign currencies
    • A potential dollar collapse and what that would mean
    • Inflation vs deflation
    • What to do in your community about foreclosures
    • Investing in gold (why and when to get out)
    • The risk of having loved ones far away in these times

    Consider it my Midsummer’s gift to you.  I am enjoying my summer vacation tremendously and hope you will have a similar opportunity for rest and rejuvenation in your own life.  Take some time out soon to visit with and value your relationships with friends and loved ones.  Near or far, they are an important part of our individual support systems and far-reaching personal communities. 

    Summer gatherings are a great time to talk about the Crash Course with friends, neighbors, relatives, and other people you care about.   The easiest way I know to do that is to use the latest DVD version of the Crash Course, which breaks the material down into more bite-sized units, with additional framing at the beginning and end of each disc and an accompanying booklet which can help guide you in hosting a viewing.

    If you don’t think people will be receptive to the whole message, go gently in conversation with them.  Encourage them to take personal actions toward increased self-sufficiency.  Encourage them to trust themselves and follow their inner compass, even when the experts would have us do otherwise.   Encourage them to reconsider their financial choices and investigate the truth behind the fuzzy numbers they might have encountered.  Encourage them to share their own expertise and skills with each other.  Encourage them to change their expectations to accommodate a changing world.  And most of all, build those relationships now, so that you can rely on them in future times of need.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – June 14

    by Davos

    Sunday, June 14, 2009, 2:54 PM

    0
    • Financial Sense News hour 3, June 6 (Repost, Audio)
    • Predictions of $250 a barrel on fears for oil reserves, hopes of economic recovery and hedging against weak dollar
    • The Economic Recovery Decoy: Bank Refuge and Auto and Home Sales Plummet. Two Largest Purchases for Americans still Treading Water. Number of Renters Increases by 748,000 in one Quarter.
    • A housing recovery? Not even close.
    • An urgent Message from Jim Sinclair. Re: GOLD and SILVER
    • Keep in mind that whenever we’re talking “bonds” or “Treasuries,” what we’re really talking about, of course, is DEBT
    •  California [World’s 8th Largest Economy] Controller Releases May Cash Flow Figures…“Fifty days from a meltdown of State government.”
    • Z.1 Flow of Funds: Total Debt Still Growing
    • Foreclosures Up 18% (Chart)
    • I/O Mortgages Hit Commercial Real Estate
    • * * * * ABBY NORMAL (Repost)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – June 10

    by Davos

    Wednesday, June 10, 2009, 2:39 PM

    0
    • Uh oh, Year over Year GDP (Chart)
    • Foreclosures and the Home ATM
    • From Michael Covel’s Blog, Fed Inflation Video
    • Michigan closing eight prison facilities by year’s end (H/TMesaBoogieMan)
    • The Psychology of Short Sales by Tanta, April 2008
    • Parent Resources for Growing Green Children
    • Shiller: Home Prices May Keep Falling
    • Rainwater Harvesting Poised To Grow In US West
    • On American sustainability: anatomy of societal collapse (Crash Course Cited)
    • Banks Try to Stiff-Arm New Rule (H/T Fujisan)

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