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Tag Archives: financial crisis

  • Blog
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    The Periphery is Failing

    The next big economic dislocation might be only weeks away
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 8:04 PM

    26

    For years we've preached the From the Outside In principle of markets: When trouble starts, it nearly always does so out in the weaker periphery before creeping towards the core.

    We saw this in the run-up to the housing bubble collapse, as sub-prime mortgages gave way before prime loans, and in Europe, as smaller economies like Greece, Ireland, and Cyprus have fallen first and hardest (so far).  We see this today in accelerating food stamp use among poorer U.S. households.  In each case, the weaker economic parties give way first before being followed, over time, by the stronger ones.

    Using this framework, we can often get several weeks to several months of advance notice before trouble erupts in the next ring closer to the center.

    Which makes today notable, as we're receiving a number of new warning signs.  The periphery is giving way.

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  • Blog

    The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think

    It can't control the real economy
    by charleshughsmith

    Thursday, August 1, 2013, 5:18 AM

    8

    This lemming-like belief in the power of the Federal Reserve generates its own psychological force field, of course; the actual power of the Fed is superseded by the belief in its power. We can thus anticipate widespread disbelief at the discovery that the Fed is either irrelevant or an impediment to the non-asset-bubble parts of the economy.

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  • Podcast

    Eric Sprott: Is the West Dishoarding Its Sovereign Treasure?

    And if so, what will happen once it's done?
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, February 23, 2013, 2:10 PM

    54

    We are well into the financial crisis. Everyone’s trying to keep it together, even though it would appear from the reading of the economy things are not going well at all here. And everyone's ignoring things.

    But I think, in their hearts, the Central Bankers must know what they’re doing is totally irresponsible. And the tell of that irresponsibility which is the debasing of the currencies is the fact that real things will go up in value. This should be reflected in the price of gold and silver.

    So expresses Eric Sprott, CEO and founder of Sprott Asset Management, and one of the most experienced and vocal advocates for owning precious metals.

    The past decade has validated Eric's thesis, as gold has risen considerably against all world fiat currencies. But what vexes him is that in recent years, when currency debasement has accelerated to extreme levels, precious metals prices have been clearly suppressed, particularly versus the U.S. dollar.

    As the topic of price manipulation is nothing new, Eric finds his focus increasingly drawn to where the precious metals are going at these bargain prices – who is accumulating and who is dishoarding:

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  • Insider

    How Energy Woes Will Trigger Financial Crisis

    The mortal pin that will pop our unsustainable system
    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, January 16, 2013, 1:56 AM

    18

    Executive Summary

    • Petroleum is bumping along its global maximum plateau
    • Global demand (led by Asia) will soon far outstrip supply
    • Why oil is getting scarcer, but cheap oil is already non-existent
    • How insufficient net energy will be the mortal pin that pops our unsustainable financial system

    If you have not yet read The Really, Really Big Picture, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Global Supply

    Where the U.S. shale plays have been getting an undue allotment of press compared to their current and projected flow rates, the major story remains that oil companies are spending more and more as oil becomes more difficult to find and challenging to produce.

    What's interesting is that so many people hold the opposite view, perhaps shaped by the breathless manner in which new finds are announced, but rarely with an appropriate level of context or caution so that we can judge how significant or likely these finds actually are.

    Here's a relatively recent example that captures this dynamic rather well.  Back in 2010, a very exciting discovery was splashed all across the news with some very heady claims:

    McMoRan Exploration announced a potentially major natural gas discovery in its operated Davy Jones ultra-deep prospect drilled in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (commonly referred to as the "shelf"), just 10 miles off the Louisiana coast. 

    Positive drilling results could be a huge boom for the company. McMoRan Exploration had proved oil and gas reserves at year-end 2009 totaling 271.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents), compared with 344.8 Bcfe in 2008.

    Estimates of the size of the discovery range from 2 trillion to 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rivaling the largest gas finds ever made in the Gulf. 

    (Source)

    This is the nature of such press releases, as I now think of them.  Yes, it's exciting that billions of barrels could be discovered and that these finds might produce as much as 15 billion barrels of oil.  Unfortunately, a short euphoric sound bite like that is all of the story that every really gets transmitted to the casual reader.  I combat these perceptions constantly in my live Q&A sessions after speeches.

    The full reality is contained within the context-free but vitally important statement that tapping this field requires drilling down to more than 28,000 feet (!).

    Fast forward to 2012 and here's the reality of that find…

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  • Blog

    The Really, Really Big Picture

    There isn't going to be enough net energy
    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, January 16, 2013, 1:54 AM

    54

    [Many longtime followers of the Crash Course have asked Chris to update his forecasts for Peak Oil in light of the production increases in shale oil and gas over recent years. What started out as a modest effort at clarification morphed into a much more massive 3-report treatise as Chris sifted through mountains of new data that ultimately left him more convinced than ever we are facing a global net energy crisis despite misguided media efforts intended to convince us otherwise. His reports are being released in series over the next several weeks; the first installment is below.]

    There has been a very strong and concerted public-relations effort to spin the recent shale energy plays of the U.S. as complete game-changers for the world energy outlook.  These efforts do not square up well with the data and are creating a vast misperception about the current risks and future opportunities among the general populace and energy organizations alike.  The world remains quite hopelessly addicted to petroleum, and the future will be shaped by scarcity – not abundance, as some have claimed.

    This series of reports will assemble the relevant data into a simple and easy-to-understand story that has the appropriate context to provide a meaningful place to begin a conversation and make decisions.

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  • Blog

    Straight Talk with Jesse: Concentration of Wealth & Power Is the Root Problem

    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, March 28, 2011, 10:30 PM

    0

    “Straight Talk” features thinking from notable minds that the ChrisMartenson.com audience has indicated it wants to learn more about. Readers submit the questions they want addressed and our guests take their best crack at answering. The comments and opinions expressed by our guests are their own.

    This week’s Straight Talk contributor is ‘Jesse’, founder and proprieter of Jesse’s Café Américain (jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com), one of the more esteemed and veteran econoblogs. Jesse publishes regular observations on the macroeconomic factors impacting the financial markets, as well as exceptionally rich technical analysis – his price forecast charts of gold and silver are ‘must reads’ for anyone who seriously invests or trades precious metals. Recently, his site was rated as the fourth-most-influential blog in financial media by Mindful Money.


    1. Jesse’s Café Américain has emerged as a well-regarded source for insight into the key indicators driving the markets. Can you summarize your overall outlook for the economy and what macro trends investors and traders should be following most closely?

    Stagflation has been my forecast for quite some time as the most likely outcome, with a real protracted deflation or hyperinflation as lesser probabilities.  

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 1/28 – Americans View Global Economy as Negative, Unemployment Benefits, Foreclosure Rates Slow

    by DailyDigest

    Friday, January 28, 2011, 4:00 PM

    0
    • The Big Squeeze: Predicting the Effects of Savings Extortion and Abuse of the Middle Class
    • The Blind Men & The Elephant—The Totally Bullshit FCIC Commission Report and Dissents
    • Americans Increasingly View Global Economy As A Negative
    • Crisis May Seem Criminal, but Try Making a Case
    • Ahead of the Bell: Unemployment Benefits
    • Foreclosure Rates Slow In Hardest-Hit Areas
    • An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 1

    Get started building resilience into your life with our ‘What Should I Do?’ guide

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