Tag Archives: financial crisis

  • Blog
    Getty images

    Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

    Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, January 7, 2019, 9:50 AM

    16

    Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

    And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

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  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: A World Of Rising Interest Rates

    Means a future of falling prices -- in nearly everything
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:55 PM

    3

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

    • The Crashing Treasury Curve
      • Interest rates are on the move
    • Get Ready For Interest Rates To Start Rising
      • The end of a 30-year downtrend
    • When Rates Rise, Prices Will Fall
      • Bonds, stocks, housing — nearly everything
    • What's Next For Bitcoin?
      • We're witnessing a historical moment

    Charles and Chris discuss the implications to anticipate should interest rates indeed start rising. The quick summary? It will change everything…

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  • Blog

    Upon The Next Crisis, The Rules Will Suddenly Change

    For the benefit of the elites; not the rest of us
    by charleshughsmith

    Saturday, September 30, 2017, 12:02 AM

    17

    We can add a third certainty to the two standard ones (death and taxes): The rules will suddenly change when a financial crisis strikes.

    Why is this a certainty? Human nature, politics and the structure of societies/economies ruled by centralized states (governments).

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  • Podcast

    Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

    Creating the buying opportunity of a lifetime
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, January 30, 2017, 5:02 PM

    56

    Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks.

    Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent sees punishing losses ahead for investors who do not position themselves for safety beforehand. On the positive side, he predicts those that do will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at incredible bargain prices once the carnage ends (and yes, for those of you wondering, he also addresses his outlook for gold).

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  • Blog
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    The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

    And it sure looks angry
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, January 16, 2016, 12:53 AM

    46

    As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

    Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

    If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?

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  • Blog
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    Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges

    The context underlying the growing crisis
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, June 16, 2014, 4:58 PM

    34

    The situation in Iraq is serious, and is probably going to get worse before it gets better. The potential for this recent action to morph into a regional conflict is very high. That that means that oil could go a lot higher, and if it does, we can expect the odds of a global economic recession and an attendant financial crisis to go up considerably from here.

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  • Insider
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    Oil at Risk

    Get ready for $150 per barrel oil?
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, June 16, 2014, 4:57 PM

    35

    Executive Summary

    • Why this Iraq crisis comes at a very vulnerable time for world oil markets
    • The three mostly likely outcomes to the current crisis, and the resulting oil price of each
      1. ISIS remains contained from here
      2. ISIS takes Bagdad and points south
      3. A more widespread Middle East conflict erupts
    • The growing risk to the global economy & financial markets
    • What concerned individuals should do now

    If you have not yet read Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The biggest risk to the world economy from the developing Iraq situation is that the price of oil could spike higher, killing the sputtering economic 'recovery' and triggering both a new global Recession and financial crisis.

    Now, here's the truly interesting part of where we are in this story.

    The IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently called for OPEC to deliver more oil by year end, which I wrote about here, and especially called upon Saudi Arabia to do so because world oil supplies are incredibly tight right now.  OPEC is the only entity in the world with any identifiable 'swing production', as all of the non-OPEC nations are alrady producing at maximum capacity. At least, the hope is that OPEC has additional production capacity.

    In the prior piece mentioned, I wrote that of the 12 OPEC members, 8 are in a sustained decline trend for a variety of geological or political reasons. Only 4 are not. Only 1 actually has shown a significant increase in oil production over the past few years — and that was Iraqwhich had added 1.5 mbd recently:

    Here's what's at risk if the ISIS rebels push further south:

    (Source)

    The IEA is already calling on OPEC to deliver 1.2 mbd more by year end 2014. If Iraq's production is lost, then we can just add that amount to the 'needed total' that the IEA has requested be brought on line by Saudi Arabia, an amount that I already sincerely doubt they can meet. If even a portion of Iraq's production is lost, then we can just kiss $110 barrel good-bye and say hello to $150 per barrel oil. War is messy and it's never easy to predict what might happen, but we'd be foolish to not consider what might happen here.

    The true game-changer for the world will come when…

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  • Blog
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    When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?

    The world is trapped in a quest for 'Demand'
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 5:14 PM

    25

    Understandably for the US, which sustained a consumption supercycle for several decades, the post-financial crisis period has kicked off a new trend: Americans want to consume less, and make more.

    Americans want to own less stuff, use less energy, and produce their own goods. In short, Americans want to sell

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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: Trouble Brewing Everywhere

    Signs of weakness are appearing on a number of fronts
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 30, 2013, 12:00 AM

    14

    <p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:</p>
    <ul>
        <li>Currency Chaos
            <ul>
                <li>Weaker currency markets are suddenly imploding</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>From the Outside in
            <ul>
                <li>Economic distress is moving closer to the core</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>Is a Financial Collapse Nigh?
            <ul>
                <li>Does Chris still expect declines of 40% or more?</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>The Syria Curve Ball
            <ul>
                <li>How would an open conflict change the game?</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
    </ul>

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