Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Insider

Off The Cuff: The Fed’s ‘Complicated Mess’

Dwindling options and a sickening repo market

by Adam Taggart

Friday, December 13, 2019, 8:50 AM

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This week Chris sat down with Peak Prosperity’s favorite expert on the Federal Reserve, Axel Merk, to try to make sense of what’s going on with Fed policy.

We’re rushing this podcast to you before the transcript is ready as the situation is so fluid this week. In the 48 hours since the recording of this interview, the Fed has announced it will keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, but will begin a massive increase to its rescue efforts in the repo market, committing to injecting $425 billion over the near future.

That is a truly staggering sum and a clear sign of trouble in the banking system. Most likely, one or more big players are failing and, as a result, banks are becoming increasingly reluctant to lend to one another, even for very short durations.

What does this all portend? Listen on…

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Insider

Epic Fail

Ignore the stock melt-up. The data is screaming we're in trouble.

by Chris Martenson

Monday, November 25, 2019, 1:46 PM

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The US Federal Reserve currently believes they are doing “good” by preventing downturns and sending asset prices higher.

But in reality, they’re setting the stage for a very disappointing future. Perhaps even a violent one.

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central banks

The Phantom Mania

There's nothing of substance underlying the current market melt-up

by Adam Taggart

Friday, November 22, 2019, 5:00 PM

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Well, stocks are back at all-time highs. Ignited by the Fed’s “Not-QE” program and endless Trump administration teases of an “imminent” China deal, the S&P 500 has been propelled above its upward Bollinger band — a hyperextension only seen one other time since 2007.

Every week since Not-QE was announced has seen the S&P close green (this week finally ending the streak, barely). We’re officially in a melt-up, where both good news and bad news are accepted as valid reasons to push stocks even higher.

But what’s notable about this melt-up is that it’s missing a compelling narrative. Every past asset price mania required a feel-good mantra that convinced the masses “This time is different!”.

But today? What’s the radically better future being promised? Where’s the party train headed to?

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Insider

Why The Risk Of A Correction Is So High Right Now

Prices have already vastly front-run the new wave of liquidity

by Chris Martenson

Friday, November 15, 2019, 3:31 PM

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Executive Summary

How our driven pursuit of “growth” is putting the entire system at risk

Why those running the system do NOT have our interests in mind

Why a correction risk is so high right now

Why our odds keep getting worse

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Federal Reserve Is Directly Monetizing US Debt , available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

My main message here in Part 2 is to show you why, from my vantage point of following the economy and financial markets daily, things are serious right now.

I trust actions over words; and the Fed’s actions are consistent with a big problem happening somewhere deep in the shadow banking system.

Further, all of the global macro data I track closely is screaming that a slowdown is here.

On top of that, investor confidence in the Fed’s ability to push market prices ever higher is dangerously overextended.

Stock gains have zoomed way ahead of the Fed’s recent excess liquidity, as this chart shows… (Enroll now to continue reading)

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Blog

The Federal Reserve Is Directly Monetizing US Debt

In a very real way, MMT is already here

by Chris Martenson

Friday, November 15, 2019, 3:30 PM

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The Federal Reserve is now directly monetizing US federal debt.

Sure, it’s not admitting to this. And it’s using several technical jinks and jives to offer a pretense that things are otherwise.

But it’s not terribly difficult to predict what’s going to happen next: the Federal Reserve will drop the secrecy and start buying US debt openly.

At a time, mind you, when US fiscal deficits are exploding and foreign buyers are heading for the exits.

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Blog

The End Of Money

Prepare for the coming wealth transfer

by Chris Martenson

Friday, November 1, 2019, 11:03 PM

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Today we live in a bifurcated economy: it is boom times for some and bust times for others.

Your personal situation depends largely on how close you fall on the socioeconomic spectrum to the protected elite class, towards which the central banks are directing their money-printing firehoses.

Why should we care about this bifurcation? History.

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Blog

Could Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Actually Save Us?

Spoiler alert: no. But that doesn't mean we won't try it.

by charleshughsmith

Friday, October 25, 2019, 5:19 PM

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The problem is we’re misallocating capital, resources and labor on a vast scale. That’s the problem.

Adding more currency and capacity/”growth” via programs like MMT doesn’t fix this problem; it actually makes it worse.

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Insider

Why The Fed Will Fail

Here's the reality it can't print its way out of

by Chris Martenson

Friday, October 18, 2019, 4:24 PM

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Executive Summary

Why we know that something really BIG has the Fed freaking out

Why the risk of systemic breakdown is uncomfortably high

The key charts that tell the tale: recession ahead!

Why, this time, the Fed will fail

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Fed Is Lying To Us , available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Touring through the global and domestic US macro economic data, it’s easy to determine that mounting recessionary forces are in play.

Everything from sentiment, import/export data, (the lack of) credit growth, shipping rates — all are in alignment; the economy is weakening.

The responses of the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump are in alignment on one facet of the story; both desperately want the US stock markets to go higher. Trump applies strategic Tweets each day to that effect, and the Fed is printing $2 billion a day in their effort to cause stocks to go higher.

I think they fail this time. Adding up all the data and risks and I clearly see that…(Enroll now to continue reading)

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Blog

The Fed Is Lying To Us

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

by Chris Martenson

Friday, October 18, 2019, 4:23 PM

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The recent statements from the Federal Reserve and the other major world central banks (the ECB, BoJ, BoE and PBoC) are alarming because their actions are completely out of alignment with what they’re telling us.

Their words seek to soothe us that “everything’s fine” and the global economy is doing quite well. But their behavior reflects a desperate anxiety.

Put more frankly; we’re being lied to.

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Insider

Off The Cuff: Not-QE & Negative Interest Rates

(Attempting) to make sense of the bizarro new normal

by Adam Taggart

Tuesday, October 15, 2019, 11:30 PM

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In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

Deconstructing the Fed’s new Not-QE program

What would life under negative US interest rates look like?

How the rich are using hard assets to protect their wealth

Life strategies for a low-energy future

So much ground to cover… John Rubino returns this week to discuss the recent Not-QE program announced by the Fed. What exactly will it be? And why is the Fed implementing it now?

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