Tag Archives: Fed

  • Blog
    Peak Prosperity

    VIDEO: The Fed Stooges

    Laughing (and crying) at the recent '60 Minutes' interview
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 6:39 PM

    2

    On Sunday night, 60 Minutes treated the American public to a sit-down interview with the current Federal Reserve chairman and his two immediate predecessors.

    Hilarity ensued.

    Not really…unless you enjoy gallows humor.

    In the below video, Chris explains why this relatively gentle puff-piece assisting the Fed's hawking of its “All is well!” message is an intentional soporific, designed to keep the populace slumbering in ignorance of the extreme danger reckless central bank monetary policy has placed society in.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Bad Assumptions = Bad Outcomes

    Both the market & the Fed are making dangerous assumptions
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, February 28, 2019, 8:20 AM

    11

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

    • The Market Is Making Some Dangerous Assumptions
      • Right now it’s confident the Fed won’t hike this year. But will that be the case?
    • A Rate Surprise Would Shock The Markets
      • But the massive rebound seen since Jan supports hiking
    • Higher Rates Would Help The Fed Address The Coming Recession
      • Yet another reason rates can still go up
    • But There’s No Guarantee The Fed Can Ride To The Rescue
      • One day its stimulus will stop working, no matter how large

    There’s been a lot of releases from the Federal Reserve lately which Chris and Wolf deconstruct here. Wolf is of the mind that the markets are interpreting the Fed’s recent dovish moves as complete capitulation. He’s not so sure about that — he thinks the Fed will raise rates if given the opportunity. And the massive market recovery since the start of the year is giving it more and more validation for further hikes. So Wolf warns that the market could be in for a nasty surprise should the Fed hike later this year.

    But he also warns that the Fed is guilty of making some shaky assumptions of its own. Here he explains why its stimulus playbook may not work as expected when the next recession arrives:

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  • Blog

    We're Living In 'The Groundhog Show'

    In which our leaders make the same mistakes over & over
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 22, 2019, 3:48 PM

    45

    It's said that truth mirrors fiction. I'm finding this to be the case more and more these days.

    Take the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day. Bill Murray wakes up each day to relieve the exact same daily circumstances and interpersonal interactions. He relives the same day, February 2, over and over again.No matter what he does, the repetitive cycle won't break.  He goes to sleep, wakes up to his alarm, and it's the morning of Feb 2 again.

    Likewise, in The Truman Show, Jim Carrey lives in a simulated environment where everybody's an actor in a popular TV show except him.  For him, it’s his real life.  But although he doesn't realise it, everything around him is completely scripted and fake.

    If merge these two movies together, they perfectly describe the world in which we live today.  Welcome to Groundhog Day meets The Truman Show.   Let’s call this mash-up The Groundhog Show.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: When Does The System Break?

    Where's the line where inflation will become hyperinflation?
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, February 20, 2019, 10:13 AM

    19

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

    • When Does The System Break?
      • When will (hyper)inflation become the greater risk?
    • When Will The Central Banks Lose Control?
      • Their intervention is becoming increasingly desperate
    • Recession & Debt Exhaustion
      • These are limits that can't be 'printed away' forever
    • The Rise Of Authoritarianism
      • More countries are giving the State more power

    One of the most frequent questions we're asked here at Peak Prosperity is: When does all this blow up? When do the sins of the past — rampant debt/deificit spending, monetary meddling, cronyism, lies & propaganda, resource despoilage — catch up with us and force a day of reckoning?

    Well, in this week's podcast, Chris and John Rubino bravely attempt to answer. Their conclusions aren't pretty; it's better we be forewarned of the risks than slam into them blindly.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Insider

    You vs The Recession

    To fail to plan is to plan to fail
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:23 PM

    2

    Executive Summary

    • The limits to central bank money printing
    • The key indicators signalling recession
    • The growing fractures in the US economy & housing market, Europe, China & global trade
    • Stepping out of the recession's path

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Next Stop: Recession!, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Here in early 2019 the central banks have already caved to the market’s December 2018 weakness by printing more money, softening their plans for reducing their balance sheets and delaying the already timid schedule for introducing new interest rate hikes.  They are panicking early and often and seem inordinately afraid of any sort of downturn in stock prices, which is a concerning matter in itself.

    So our asterisk on this claim of ours that a recession has arrived is contained in the phrase “until and unless.”  Until and unless the central banks reignite their QE booster rockets, and do so in larger-than-ever quantities, and do so by giving money to the common people (not the banks), we think that the die is cast.  The recession has arrived. 

    Perhaps we should introduce a second idea which is contained in the phrase “they can until they can’t.”  The central banks managed to get a bounce in the equity markets through a combination of easing financial conditions, as they say (i.e. throw more money to the markets), and jawboning. 

    This was sufficient to get a relief bounce in equity and bond markets, but it did nothing to alter the many recession indicators we’ll track for you below.  The central banks can still move the markets with their words and deed.  Someday, perhaps soon, it will be shown they can’t.  They can move markets until they can’t.  Other such times of the central banks being overwhelmed by the movement of the market tides were in 2000 and 2008.

    What sorts of things could or will swamp the levitating effects of money printing?  One is a full-blown recession that ends up crushing the various crevices that central banks cannot directly control via printing such as real estate, consumer sentiment, and zombie companies’ ability to meet debt payments.

    Another is a deflationary event that sweeps across overleveraged debt markets and causes the very worst sort of damage to a debt-based money system built on leverage; a decline in the amount of credit outstanding from one period to the next.  In other words, another 2008-2009 type of event.

    The central banks can control things until they can’t.  That’s what history says.  Perhaps something more fundamental has changed since that allows them more complete control than ever, and perhaps we should always have a few of our chips placed on that possibility, but otherwise it’s not different this time and the central banks will once again discover that credit bubbles are really fun on the way up and utterly destructive on the way down.

    We think the next recession has arrived and that it’s going to be a real doozy in terms of creating financial market panic and losses.

    Specifically, you need to watch out for…

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  • Insider
    iForexBlog.com

    Off The Cuff: A Brightening Future For Gold?

    It's finally breaking out of its consolidation phase
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 1, 2019, 3:23 PM

    4

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mike “Mish” Shedlock discuss:

    • The Complete Sham of Corporate “Earnings”
      • Now an art of putting lipstick on a pig
    • The Growing Revolt
      • Everywhere you look, the Establishement is being increasingly questioned
    • The Empire Digs In
      • More, and more secretive, measures are being past to protect its advantage
    • A Brightening Future For Gold?
      • It is finally breaking out of its consolidation phase?

    The price of gold has long been in a consolidation phase, and it now seems to breaking out to the upside. There are both fundamental and market-driven reasons for this.

    On the fundamental end, supply is becoming a real issue. And with the Powell Fed completely caving to the markets, expectations of a more 'dovish' Fed policy going forward is also adding wind to gold's sails.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: The Flip-Flop Fed

    Powell suddenly starts singing a dovish tune
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, January 17, 2019, 6:01 PM

    11

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

    • The Fed's Flip-Flop
      • Powell suddenly starts signing a dovish tune
    • Which Risks Are The Ones Most Worth Watching
      • Not all risks are created equal
    • Corp Profits vs Wage Inflation
      • Why does the Fed value one and hate the other?
    • Outlook For Gold
      • Looking better and better

    Our resident Fed expert, Axel Merk, does his best to interpret the abrupt capitulation Jerome Powell has recently demonstrated.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Blog

    2019: The Beginning Of The End (Free Premium Report)

    What will happen next & what to do now
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, January 17, 2019, 9:07 AM

    21

    Now that it is 2019, we’re going to start the new year here at Peak Prosperity by responding to our community and making our most recent report for our premium subscribers free to everyone.

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  • Insider

    The 8 Systemic Failure Points Of The Global Economy

    The macroeconomic fault lines to monitor closely
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, January 4, 2019, 7:06 PM

    22

    Executive Summary

    • The 8 Systemic Failure Points Of The Global Economy
    • Why The US May Weather The Next Collapse Better Than The Rest Of The World
    • The Fed’s Long Game
    • Why Allowing Recession Now May Be A Policy Goal

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Is This Downturn a Repeat of 2008?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we concluded the current global downturn isn’t a repeat of the 2008 global crisis; rather, it has characteristics of three types of recession: liquidity/currency mismatches, the popping of credit-asset bubbles and a business-cycle exhaustion of credit impulse, what I call a credit-demand exhaustion.

    Let’s add a potential fourth recessionary impulse: energy. Right now the world’s oil importers are feasting on a 40% decline in the cost of oil, but as Chris and other analysts (Gail Tverberg, Richard Heinberg, and Nate Hagens) have explained, we’re approaching a point where the cost of extracting, processing and distributing oil is rising as the cheap oil has been consumed.  Producers need high prices or they will stop producing. But consumers, the vast majority of whom have stagnant incomes, can’t afford high energy costs.  Beyond a rather low price point, higher energy costs trigger a recession.

    This may not be driving the current downturn, but it looms large in the background.  I see the current collapse in oil prices as a head-fake: the sharp drop makes it appear oil is abundant, but this abundance is temporary, not permanent.

    Moreover, we aren’t privy to the opinions and machinations within the world’s major central banks, but it’s clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve is diverging from other central banks, which remain accommodative while the Fed raises rates and reduces its balance sheet by $30 billion a month.

    Of the four primary central banks—the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China and the Fed—why is the Fed the one bank diverging from the other three, despite the appeals of the ECB to remain accommodative?

    I see several reasons, and the first is…

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by swampt01, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 12/18 – Venezuela Inflation Rate Passes 1,000,000%, Would Human Extinction Be A Tragedy?

    by DailyDigest

    Tuesday, December 18, 2018, 2:20 PM

    14
    • Trump and China: Towards a Cold or Hot War?
    • UK's May says rescheduling Brexit vote in parliament for mid-Jan
    • Venezuela Inflation Rate Passes 1 Million Percent, and It’s Costing Lives Every Day: This Is What Devastating Hyperinflation Looks Like 
    • Iraq’s Post-ISIS Campaign of Revenge
    • Reports show Russia mounted sweeping effort to sow divisions, support Trump
    • China’s Bizarre Program to Keep Activists in Check
    • Homelessness Rises Slightly Despite Strong Economy, Federal Report Finds
    • The Curbside Chat: Charles Marohn of Strong Towns on Building Better Places
    • The World's Most Controversial Coal Mine Is Set to Break Ground
    • Opinion: Would Human Extinction Be A Tragedy?
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