Tag Archives: exports

  • Podcast

    Jeffrey Brown: To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports

    Peak Oil is very much alive
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, September 13, 2015, 9:31 PM


    Despite the attention-grabbing economic volatility that is grabbing headlines, it's important to keep our eye on the energy story firmly in focus. This is especially true as the headlines we regularly read about Peak Oil being dead " are "manifestly false" according to this week's podcast guest, petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown. 

    As concerning as the fact that global oil production has plateaued over the past decade, despite trillions invested in trying to goose it higher, are Brown's forecasting model for oil exports. His Export Land Model shows how rising internal consumption can swing (and has swung) countries from major exporters to permanent importers within a dizzyingly short period of time.

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  • Insider
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    Japan’s Economy Is Shattering

    Abenomics is fast proving to be a costly failure
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, April 28, 2014, 3:09 PM


    When you are a fully-industrialized island nation that makes its living in the world by importing raw materials, fashioning them into useful exports, and collecting the difference as your profits, then you simply have to run a trade surplus for the model to work.

    Which means Japan is in big trouble:

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  • Blog
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    When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?

    The world is trapped in a quest for 'Demand'
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 5:14 PM


    Understandably for the US, which sustained a consumption supercycle for several decades, the post-financial crisis period has kicked off a new trend: Americans want to consume less, and make more.

    Americans want to own less stuff, use less energy, and produce their own goods. In short, Americans want to sell

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  • Blog
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    Abenomics’ Dismal Anniversary

    Why we need to care about Japan's continued decline
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, September 10, 2013, 5:39 PM


    Abenomics, the radical set of reflationary policies designed to (air)lift Japan out of its multi-decade slump, is approaching its first anniversary. Don't expect a joyful celebration.

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  • Insider
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    The 10 Next Predictable Steps to Japan’s Unfolding Disaster

    As Japan goes, so will the rest of the world soon after
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Monday, February 18, 2013, 10:05 PM


    Executive Summary

    • Japan is intentionally devaluing its currency through money printing. The recent boost in the Nikkei is simply the result of this flood of new money.
    • Japan industry is now experiencing cost increases on two fronts: inflation of the money supply, and rising prices on the global market for commodities.
    • Rising bond rates are all but guaranteed.
    • Gold vs. the yen is surging and will pick up momentum from here
    • The ten predictable events that will happen next, as the unavoidable Japan disaster unfolds

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Arrival of Japan's Sunset available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part II we explain why Japan has unequivocally entered the terminal phase of its 20-year reflationary experiment.

    Further “abundance” harvesting from this point forward will be difficult if not impossible.

    Is the devaluation of the yen really the successful technology that will fool nature? We think not. The outcome will have spectacular implications for many global assets, ranging from real estate, to stock markets, to oil and gold.

    Observers of Japan from this point forward should be sober about the threshold the country has now crossed. Japan has effectively said to the world: Go ahead, make my day. Sell our currency, give us inflation, and get out of our bonds.

    Japan has indeed taken to heart the Krugman dictum, and committed to irresponsibility.

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  • Blog

    The Arrival of Japan’s Sunset

    The repercussions will be tremendous
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Monday, February 18, 2013, 10:05 PM


    For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled. ~ Richard Feynman

    Waiting for Japan's economy to make a strong recovery has been an ongoing game since 1990. Shall we play that game one more time?

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  • Blog

    The Price of Growth

    by Gregor Macdonald

    Monday, January 30, 2012, 5:38 PM


    Growth. It’s what every economist and politician wants. If we get ‘back to growth,’ servicing debts both private and sovereign becomes much easier. And life will return to normal (for a few more years).

    There is growing evidence that a major US policy shift is underway to boost growth. Growth that will create millions of new jobs and raise real GDP.

    While that’s welcome news to just about everyone, the story is much less appealing when one understands the cost that come with such growth. Are we better off if a near-term recovery comes at the expense of our future security? The prudent among us would disagree.

    Resurrecting American Export Strength

    It’s easy to be skeptical that America could once again be a titan of global exports.

    For a very long time, that role has mostly been relegated to countries in the developing world. America as an export economy? Somewhere along the 50-year transition from industrial manufacturer to voracious consumer, Americans have lost touch with such a remote possibility. Indeed, this phase of America’s economic history is now quite settled.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – Apr 28

    by Davos

    Tuesday, April 28, 2009, 3:23 PM

    • Are the Knives are Coming Out for Geithner?
    • Charlie Rose – Stiglitz, Ackerman:  stress test has any real meaning is simply living in Wonderland (Video)
    • Max Kaiser Latest Appearances…(Video)
    • Eric Rosenfeld on LTCM…(Video)
    • Summers: Expect "sharp declines in employment"
    • No More Dodgeball! (Video)
    • Planet Money – Live (Video, WTF Just Happened to our Economy)
    • Will The Fed Finally Move Interest Rates Below Zero
    • YoY Change in European Exports
    • MERS (Chart)
    • So far behind Flu (Video # 3 WSJ)
    • 2,000 people hospitalized with serious cases of pneumonia 

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – Feb 25

    by Davos

    Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 12:23 PM

    • The "Trashout" Squad
    • Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit
    • When Giants Fail, Bloomberg Video
    • Credit contracts as government dissembles
    • White backs off ‘credit enhancement’ with tax dollars
    • Stimulus Watch (Hat Tip DJHester1940)
    • Do Not Resuscitate (Hat Tip Ernie)
    • U.S. to Get Bank Ownership Stakes Only as Losses Rise
    • Consumer Confidence
    • S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    • Shiller: Stocks not yet cheap enough for me 
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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – Feb 12

    by Davos

    Wednesday, February 11, 2009, 10:26 PM

    • Economy How We Can Restore Confidence, By Charles T. Munger
    • Jim Rogers (Video, Bloomberg, Hat Tip JoeManC)
    • Congressman Capuano to Banks, "I don’t have one penny in a bank." (Video)
    • Chinese exports (-17.5%); imports (-43%)
    • European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis
    • Fed Looking Unlikely to Buy Treasurys
    • Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
    • Real Treasury Yields Moving Lower (Chart)
    • More…

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