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Tag Archives: Europe

  • Insider
    Wikimedia

    Why This Better Work

    Because if it doesn't, the aftermath looks terrifying
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, April 19, 2019, 4:20 PM

    15

    Executive Summary

    • China's critical role in keeping the party going (and why China is in a weaker position this time)
    • Despite current stock prices, the economic data is awful and fast getting worse
    • A recession is near-unavoidable at this point
    • What to do if you're not in the top 0.1%

    If you have not yet read Part 1: It's 2016 All Over Again. Or Is It?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    I know that it seems as if the US equity markets cannot ever go down and, truthfully, those indexes receive a ton of help from the Fed, the media, and from corporate buybacks. 

    The trouble, as always, when it begins will not be detected in the large, successful companies first.  Amazon and APPL will be among the last to go down.

    The trouble will start at the outside and work its way inwards.  This “outside in” phenomenon is pretty robust and it has not yet been repealed by the interventionistas at the Fed.

    In the US we might look to the small cap stocks to give way first, and I think they have.  It's in that universe where we will find an outsized majority of the zombie companies. 

    From a fundamental standpoint the small caps are a certified balance sheet mess.  Their net debt has been on a 40-degree, ruler-straight rise since 2010 even as their EBIDTA has risen at only a 10-degree trajectory.  The current gap is eye popping.

    This is a huge increase in debt, and it makes these companies especially vulnerable to any economic downturn or rise in interest rates.

    Accordingly, while all eyes are on the Nasdaq powering to a brand new all time high, the small caps in the Russell 2000 are definitely not making new highs and seem to be sneaking out the back door.

    If you are looking for a place to short US equities at the index level, the small caps are the …

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  • Insider

    You vs The Recession

    To fail to plan is to plan to fail
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:23 PM

    2

    Executive Summary

    • The limits to central bank money printing
    • The key indicators signalling recession
    • The growing fractures in the US economy & housing market, Europe, China & global trade
    • Stepping out of the recession's path

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Next Stop: Recession!, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Here in early 2019 the central banks have already caved to the market’s December 2018 weakness by printing more money, softening their plans for reducing their balance sheets and delaying the already timid schedule for introducing new interest rate hikes.  They are panicking early and often and seem inordinately afraid of any sort of downturn in stock prices, which is a concerning matter in itself.

    So our asterisk on this claim of ours that a recession has arrived is contained in the phrase “until and unless.”  Until and unless the central banks reignite their QE booster rockets, and do so in larger-than-ever quantities, and do so by giving money to the common people (not the banks), we think that the die is cast.  The recession has arrived. 

    Perhaps we should introduce a second idea which is contained in the phrase “they can until they can’t.”  The central banks managed to get a bounce in the equity markets through a combination of easing financial conditions, as they say (i.e. throw more money to the markets), and jawboning. 

    This was sufficient to get a relief bounce in equity and bond markets, but it did nothing to alter the many recession indicators we’ll track for you below.  The central banks can still move the markets with their words and deed.  Someday, perhaps soon, it will be shown they can’t.  They can move markets until they can’t.  Other such times of the central banks being overwhelmed by the movement of the market tides were in 2000 and 2008.

    What sorts of things could or will swamp the levitating effects of money printing?  One is a full-blown recession that ends up crushing the various crevices that central banks cannot directly control via printing such as real estate, consumer sentiment, and zombie companies’ ability to meet debt payments.

    Another is a deflationary event that sweeps across overleveraged debt markets and causes the very worst sort of damage to a debt-based money system built on leverage; a decline in the amount of credit outstanding from one period to the next.  In other words, another 2008-2009 type of event.

    The central banks can control things until they can’t.  That’s what history says.  Perhaps something more fundamental has changed since that allows them more complete control than ever, and perhaps we should always have a few of our chips placed on that possibility, but otherwise it’s not different this time and the central banks will once again discover that credit bubbles are really fun on the way up and utterly destructive on the way down.

    We think the next recession has arrived and that it’s going to be a real doozy in terms of creating financial market panic and losses.

    Specifically, you need to watch out for…

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  • Insider
    AFP

    France Yellow Vests Protests: Act IX

    Violence between the State and the People is escalating
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, January 15, 2019, 5:26 AM

    52

    This past Saturday (1/12/19) more Yellow Vest protests in France broke out.  The protests always happen on Saturday, and because this was the ninth one it's being called “Act IX.”

    More violence occurred, and the police are becoming more and more draconian and brutal in their responses.  Many injuries have happened among the protestors, a lot of them quite serious. Tempers are fraying all around.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by @gletham GIS, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 12/28 – Good News Friday: Ozone Hole ‘Nearly Healed,’ 50 Years Since Earthrise

    by DailyDigest

    Friday, December 28, 2018, 4:34 PM

    0
    • Green Power Becomes Gold Dust for Europe's Utility Investors
    • Christmas Around the World 2018
    • NASA's New Horizons Probe Prepares To Make History—Again
    • All the Incredible Stuff Happening in Space in 2019
    • Photos: 50 Years Since Apollo 8 Showed Us Earthrise
    • Using molten salt to store electricity isn’t just for solar thermal plants 
    • Breathe easy, because the hole in the ozone is nearly fully healed.
    • Urban farms could be incredibly efficient—but aren’t yet
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  • Insider
    barkingdogma.com

    Off The Cuff: The Trouble With Trade Wars

    The uncertainty whipsaws markets, media & investors alike
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, June 28, 2018, 10:37 PM

    0

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

    • The Trouble With Trade Wars
      • The uncertainty is whipsawing the markets
    • Actions Have Repercussions
      • China's investment in the US plummets
    • The Rules Of Brinksmanship
      • Chris & Axel give book recommendations
    • Oil & Gold
      • Where to from here?

    It's hard to keep one's head in today's world. Developments are changing at a pace the world just can't handle. As a result, the uncertainty and confusion makes it very difficult to 'surf' events as they unfold.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Too Many Balls In The Air

    Why the central banks will ultimately crash the markets
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 12, 2017, 7:26 PM

    5

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • Too Many Balls In The Air
      • The central banks are losing control of them all
    • Growing Risk In Europe
      • Macron's victory masks huge looming problems
    • Without Continued Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion…
      • …The markets will crash
    • Things Don't Matter Until They Do
      • Why the crash will happen unbelievably quickly

    This week Chris and Mish enumerate how completely dependent today's financial market prices are on the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets around the world.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

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  • Insider
    555769471/Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: Trouble Returns To Europe

    The end of the Eurozone experiment may be nigh
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, February 4, 2017, 4:51 AM

    5

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • Trouble In Europe
      • The end of the Eurozone experiment may be nigh
    • Our Justice System
      • Where to the Supreme Court?
    • Trump's Shake Up
      • Will he make it 4 full years?
    • Gold Strength
      • The metal and the miners are looking better

    Mish returns this week to discuss the brewing stormclouds in Europe. As nationalist candidates gain popularity, growth slows, refugee challenges persist, and friction with the US builds, the binds between the countries in the Eurozone are weakening quickly.

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  • Insider
    astudio/Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: The World’s Banking System Is On The Precipice

    It's as vulnerable (or more) as during 2008
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, August 11, 2016, 11:02 PM

    24

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • The World's Baking System Is On The Precipice
      • It's as vulnerable (or more) as during 2008
    • Stocks & Bonds Hit All-Time Highs
      • We're in a chimera market right now
    • Central Control Is Tightening
      • Dissent is being squashed wherever possible
    • Real Wages Are Declining
      • Good luck squashing that dissent when folks can't feed their families…

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

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  • Blog
    Zacarias Pereira da Mata/Shutterstock

    The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

    A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, July 8, 2016, 7:03 PM

    5

    In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

    But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

    Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

    What the heck is going on?

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  • Insider
    Esteban De Armas/Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: Look Out Below!

    We're on the cusp of major asset deflation
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, September 24, 2015, 9:15 PM

    23

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • The Periphery Is Collapsing Fast
      • Emerging market currencies are falling hard vs the US dollar
    • China Is Running Off The Rails
      • We're witnessing a bust in progress
    • Europe's Black Swan Has Landed
      • A migrant crisis no one saw coming this quickly
    • The US Is Sliding Back Into Recession
      • The data is bad and getting worse

     

     

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