Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

Read More »

We desperately need to have new national and global conversations about everything from how we’ll feed everyone in 2050, to developing a coherent sustainable energy policy, to the fact that each year is hotter than the year before, to the idea that we’re living with a soul crushing sense of scarcity in a world of abundance.

There’s lots that needs addressing, and the process should begin with letting go of the old narrative so that we can make space for assembling the new one.

Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

Read More »

In the interests of full disclosure and of keeping you abreast of my personal investment actions, I entered a short position on Friday for the first time since 2009. Yes, it’s been seven years.

The equity markets have been all but bulletproof for 6 years, but I think that phase has ended and we’re in for a rough ride from here on out.  At least until stocks fall far enough for the central banks to have another go at attempting to print up prosperity.

First, I think that the stock rally of late is overdone and there’s more downside to come.  I have a whole host of supporting reasons based on credit markets and global trade, but we’ll get…

Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

Read More »

As we've written on and warned about before, deflation is winning.  We're starting to see very serious cracks in the façade, beginning with oil, then various peripheral currencies — especially from emerging market oil exporters — and now equities.

Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

Read More »

Executive Summary

• Why stocks may average 0% return (!) for the next decade
• The depressing data in
  • Retail sales
  • Housing
  • Manufacturing
  • Consumer confidence
• Why the time to short the market is looking near

If you have not yet read The Stock Market's Shaky Foundation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

To be sure, there is one piece of fundamental information that has supported equity prices; and that’s corporate earnings.

Those have vaulted to new highs, despite the weak economic recovery, on the back of ultra-cheap borrowing (which reduces interest costs which are deducted from earnings), government deficit spending, and low household savings:

While the parabolic rise in corporate earnings is quite impressive, they are also historically unprecedented and certainly unsustainable. 

When we look at the same chart seen above but on a percent change yr/yr basis we see that they have been slowing down remarkably and aren't that far above the zero mark…

Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

Read More »