Tag Archives: ECB

  • Podcast

    Steen Jakobsen: Expect A 30% Stock Market Correction in 2014

    Presaging economic lows in Q1/Q2 2015
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, June 1, 2014, 9:25 PM

    11

    This week, Chris talks with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank. We wanted to see through the eyes of a professional economist, which Steen kindly allowed us to do.

    Steen agrees that central banks have largely failed in their misguided attempts to boost growth via trickle-down programs. Pretty much all the benefits of the recent years of money printing have gone to the upper echelons, with the true engines of growth and jobs — small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) — getting very little.

    As a result, financial asset prices have been driven up too high, which Steen anticipates will correct at some point in 2014; likely by 30% or so.

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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: Europe Is A “Train Crash In The Making”

    The risks have only grown much worse since 2008
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 23, 2014, 4:57 PM

    10

    In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Alasdair discuss:

    • The Insane UK Housing Bubble
      • Courtesy of central bank-driven low rates & hot money
    • EU Banks Are As Vulnerable As Ever
      • None of the issues from 2008 have been resolved
    • The Coming EU Energy Drought
      • Worsened by Russia's new gas deal with China
    • The Lack of Churchills
      • Strong leaders are needed, but nowhere in sight
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  • Blog
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    When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?

    The world is trapped in a quest for 'Demand'
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 5:14 PM

    25

    Understandably for the US, which sustained a consumption supercycle for several decades, the post-financial crisis period has kicked off a new trend: Americans want to consume less, and make more.

    Americans want to own less stuff, use less energy, and produce their own goods. In short, Americans want to sell

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  • Insider
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    Market Jitters

    Is caution returning after a 3-year hiatus?
    by Chris Martenson

    Sunday, April 13, 2014, 5:21 PM

    13

    The global stock markets have been trading as if risk has been entirely removed the equation. Fundamentals have had zero impact on the prices of equities as they have gone up on good news (hey, the economy is improving!) as well as bad (hey, there's more stimulus on the way!).

    We saw this same level of rationalization in play in 2006 and 2007. It was as frustrating to those with an eye towards rational thinking then as it is today.

    Only today is worse. A lot worse.

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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: The Anxiety Gap

    If things are so great, why are we so unhappy?
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, November 7, 2013, 5:42 PM

    30

    In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles discuss: The anxiety gap Stress is building even though we're being told "everything is getting better" The difference between money & capital We have too much of one and not enough of the other Rudderless leadership Poor decisions abound everywhere Freshly back from Europe, Charles Hugh Smith…

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  • Insider
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    Blast Shields Up! Prepare for Incoming!

    Get busy with defensive maneuvers – now
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 8:05 PM

    74

    Executive Summary

    • Central bank policies to prop up the global economic system are failing
    • Developing countries and the PIIGS are the periphery where we can see the crumbling now accelerate
    • The emerging Syria crisis could hardly come at a worse time & could have an explosive effect
    • The steps every concerned individual should be taking now

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Periphery is Failing, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    When Help Turns to Harm

    The story, so far, goes like this:  A global credit crisis so worried the powers that be that they promised to do ‘whatever it takes,’ (Draghi) even if that means lying from time to time (Junker).  This has only resulted in larger and larger interventions in the form of more aggressive QE programs (U.S. Fed), doubling of the monetary base (Japan), and repeated ‘Final Bailout Ever’ goal lines that keep getting moved back (ECB re: Greece).

    Each of these interventions, in combination with ultra-low and highly distortive interest rates, has only served to make markets more speculative, more risk-tolerant, and therefore more prone to some future accident.

    Puzzlingly, and certainly off-script, has been the steady rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, which we’ve been tracking as the most interesting development in an otherwise boringly placid set of global equity markets.

    That began in early June.  Now at August's end, we have a better picture to illuminate why that happened and where it’s probably headed next.

    The initial data came to us via the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report that tracks the net buying and selling of financial securities in both directions across the U.S. border.  The June numbers were a real eye-opener, as they marked the first time in history that virtually every category of U.S. financial assets was net sold by foreigners.  It also showed the total amount of selling was even greater than the prior record set in October of 2008:

    (Source)

    Of course, this data is from June, and the TIC report, as good as it is, always comes out a month and a half after the fact.  So we can only guess at what has happened since.  (The July data will be released Sept 15).

    The summary of the TIC data is this:  Countries across the globe are now selling more U.S. paper than they are buying, and that is very much a game-changer.  To understand why the game has changed, all we have to do is understand that the interventionist policies of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan could never last forever and that eventually things would go into reverse.

    This will prove to be quite surprising to many, but especially those who hold the belief that central banks actually have everything under control.  Certainly we cannot disagree with the idea that central banks have a tremendous amount of power and that they can distort things for far longer than we might think possible, but eventually they cannot prevent reality from being what it is.

    It is our view that the tide has now turned.

    From the Outside In

    So if the story was one of Western central banks flooding the world with liquidity (including Japan as an honorary ‘Westerner’ in this story), and of that “money” rushing into various foreign markets, driving bond and equity prices up in those same markets, while the respective central banks fought the coincident strengthening of their local currencies by recycling that money back into U.S. paper assets (principally Treasury paper) well, that story eventually had to flip.

    We’ve already seen…

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  • Insider
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    Iceland – The Model the Bankers Would Like to Forget

    The one successful victor over the banks
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 28, 2013, 6:27 AM

    9

    As the 2008 banking crisis unfolded, a lot of secret decisions were made that essentially boiled down to this: The bankers did not want to absorb the losses that resulted from their decisions.  The name of the game was who is going to eat the losses? And the early target, as always, was taxpayers.

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  • Blog
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    Europe’s Precarious Banks Will Determine the Future

    Ticking time bombs
    by Alasdair Macleod

    Tuesday, June 25, 2013, 9:09 PM

    6

    Crying Wolf?

    It is easy to get the impression that the naysayers are wrong about Europe. After all of the predictions of Armageddon, ten-year government bond yields for Spain and Italy fell to the 4% level, France (which is retreating into old-fashioned socialism) was able to borrow at about 2%, and one of the best-performing bond investments has been until recently – wait for it – Greek government bonds! Admittedly, bond yields have risen from those lows, but so have they everywhere. It is clear, when one stands back from all the usual euro-rhetoric, that, as a threat to the global financial system, it is a case of "panic over."

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  • Insider
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    Protecting Your Wealth from Deflation

    And from a broken system run for the benefit of the banks
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, April 15, 2013, 9:18 PM

    35

    Executive Summary

    • The current gold slam has *nothing* to do with the fundamentals for precious metals, which are very favorable right now
    • How bad would deflation be?
    • Evidence that deflation is arriving
    • Why our current monetary system has become so compromised by the banks
    • How to best protect your wealth from both deflation and the banks

    If you have not yet read Part I: This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    About Those Wealth Transfers

    The biggest news of the recent past is the flow of gold from West to East. 

    (Source)

    With China importing 835 tonnes of gold in 2012 that we know about (and they may well be doing more under the table for official purposes) and also standing as the number one producer of gold, with ~360 tonnes of domestic production, none of which is exported, China is consuming at least 44% of total yearly world gold production.

    Connect that with India importing between 200 and 300 tons per quarter (2011 imports were 967 tonnes, and 2012 was 864 tonnes), and this represents another 33% of total world mine output.  Add in Russia buying more official gold, and you suddenly find that a commanding proportion of the newly mined gold in the world is headed East, where it used to stay largely in the West.

    To be clear, I view gold as money and therefore wealth itself.  Everything else that can be manufactured out of thin air is merely a claim on wealth.  In these terms, the West is slowly but steadily bleeding control of wealth to the East, something I thought our leaders were both aware of and focused on.

    Knowing the lower prices will only exacerbate this West-to-East flow, I therefore thought that the bullion banks and central banks would not have dared push that dynamic any further.   But apparently no, obviously I was wrong, which pains me on several levels.

    Add to this the various things going on in the world today, and I honestly thought we were in the most gold-favorable landscape of my life.

    Consider:

    • Negative real interest rates (powerfully gold- and commodity-friendly throughout history)
    • North Korea threatening nuclear and conventional war
    • Open confiscation of wealth in Europe from bank accounts
    • Japan doubling their monetary base in a brazenly desperate bid to stoke inflation by attacking Japanese trust in their own currency
    • Extremely unfavorable bond yields up and down the yield ladder
    • Continued European stress and discord with the possibility of a Eurozone disintegration

    Taken together, this level of system, sovereign, and institutional uncertainty is about as gold-friendly a situation one could concoct…

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by j.o.h.n. walker, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 3/6 – Wall St Selling Junk Bonds At Record Pace, College Could Cost $300k In 10 Years

    by saxplayer00o1

    Wednesday, March 6, 2013, 3:47 PM

    2
    • The Greek Catastrophe: Three Generations of Greek Workers
    • Public authorities rack up nearly $250 billion in debt
    • European Shares at Multi-Year Highs on Stimulus Hopes
    • Analysis – Older French face slow squeeze in pension reform
    • U.S. Tells G-7 to Avoid Currency Intervention Except Rare Cases
    • China's Ghost Towns: Deserted Cities Raise Fears of Debt Crisis
    • Food banks are thriving, much to the government's embarrassment
    • Egypt’s fuel shortages demonstrate perfect storm of economic pressures
    • Revealed: The shocking true scale of food poverty 
    • Report: Record 50,000 homeless now in NYC
    • Images of Japan's barren tsunami coast 2 years on
    • College could cost over $300k in 10 years
    • Wall Street selling junk bonds at record pace
    • Why America's middle class is losing ground
    • Gross Says Yen to Weaken to 100 Per Dollar on QE Concern

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