Tag Archives: earnings

  • Blog

    Time to Choose

    A fundamentals-driven breakout seems imminent. But which dir
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 8, 2013, 11:44 AM


    Whether you’re aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around us.

    It is a war of two opposing narratives: the future of our economy and our standard of living.

    The dominant story, championed by flotillas of press releases and parading talking heads, tells an inspiring tale of recovery and return to growth. 

    The other side, less visible but with a full armament of high-caliber data, tells a very different story. One of growing instability, downside risk, and inequality.

    As different as they are in substance, they both share one fundamental prediction and this is why you should care: This battle is about to break. And when it does, one side will turn out to be much more ‘right’ than the other. The time for action has arrived. To position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen.

    It’s time to choose a side.

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  • Insider

    Where Stock Prices Are Headed Over the Next Year

    The battle between the real economy and asset prices
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, October 16, 2012, 3:12 PM


    Executive Summary

    • Why household balance sheets are worse off than advertised
    • Why the recent rosy BLS jobs numbers actually mean bad news
    • How the Fed is squeezing investor capital out of other traditional asset pools and into the stock market
    • Expect to see the stock market moving higher in 2013; that is, until QE3 fails
    • What to expect if QE3 fails sooner than anticipated

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Future of Gold, Oil & the Dollar, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Market historians have recently started to point out that the current advance in the S&P500 is now 40 months old and has made gains of over 115% since the March 2009 lows. In other words, the doubling from the lows in price and the duration of the advance now late in its third year together suggest that a cyclical top is near. Furthermore, despite some noise in U.S. macro data – which has been briefly more hopeful, yet remains well within the phase of stagnation – earnings estimates have been coming down as the world economy continues to shift into lower gear.

    Perhaps for the first time in a while, we can actually say that the Fed's decision to start QE3 was moderately anticipatory, in contrast to its ad-hoc and reactive policymaking over the past five years. It is not merely that the Fed soberly accepted that the economy was not getting better. The stagnant, tractionless macro data over the past year has spoken quite loudly to that fact. Indeed, the U.S. economy is merely treading water, and the Fed's move to QE3 serves as a sharp retort to those who would relentlessly attempt to portray stagnation as recovery.

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  • Blog

    Time For An Audit…Or Some Competition

    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, January 13, 2010, 3:55 PM


    At first I thought a recent Washington Post article regarding ‘earnings’ at the Federal Reserve was a joke.  But it appeared in the business section, and there weren’t any “gotcha!” retractions the next day, so I assume it was meant to be serious.

    For those who understand the very simple idea that the Federal Reserve prints Federal Reserve Notes (or their electronic equivalent) out of thin air, the concept of ‘earnings’ on those same thin-air money units is intellectually challenging.

    Here’s the article:

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  • Blog

    Three Reasons This Stock Market Rally Is False

    by Chris Martenson

    Sunday, July 26, 2009, 11:37 PM


    There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. 

    In this one I separate and comb through the various sources of economic data, look at stock market volume, and engage in some original research to explore the issue of corporate earnings quality to make my case for where the stock market might be headed.

    Link:  Three Reasons This Stock Market Rally Is False

    A snippet:

    The recent stock market advance is lacking a solid fundamental story to base itself on, at least if we choose to rely on good data. Further, volume is down considerably, the most in decades, and this is another missing component that might make us view the stock market advance more favorably. Finally, earnings suggest that the stock market, even after its run, is not cheap, by any historical measure.

    There is growing evidence that the price movements we see in the stock market are best explained by activities that are essentially hidden from public view. High Frequency Trading (HFT) is one example, and it’s not a grand stretch to suspect other forms as well. 

    Remember, one of the most famous traders of all time said, "The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," which I am tempted, for anyone considering shorting the market, to paraphrase as, "The stock market can remain manipulated longer than you can remain sane."

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – July 20

    by Davos

    Monday, July 20, 2009, 3:07 PM

    • BIS, The Central Bank of all Central Bankers: The Central Bank WAS Warned in 2003 (Repost)
    • What Should a Central Bank Do When (Chart)
    • Happiness Isn’t …
    • Holders of Treasuries (Chart)
    • Philly Fed Index Dissapoints (Chart)
    • Whalen on Banking (Video)
    • U.S. bank “earnings”: revenues falling, losses rising
    • California closes state offices to save cash
    • The Usual Suspects (Humor)
    • State Tax (Chart on page)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – May 11

    by Davos

    Monday, May 11, 2009, 3:01 PM

    • Struggling Americans Forced To Work Extra-Dimensional 4th Shift (H/T PineCarr)
    • Broke Movie Posters, with super quotes. One, two and three
    • Broke, Movie Trailer
    • Smart Grid City (Video)
    • What If It Doesn’t Work?
    • Average Hourly Earnings Growth (Chart)
    • Obama begging Saudia Arabia for help! In Secret meeting
    • ABC News, Elderly (Video)
    • A Case Of Gangster Government? (Video)
    • Office of Management and Budget (Link found on Peter Peterson’s blog)
    •  Enormous Settlement Failures In The ETF Market (H/T PineCarr)
    • "Rats Outperform Humans in Interpreting Data"
    •  A few A(H1N1) Links Dr. Henry Niman’s Map 3,204 U.S. Cases as of this wrtitng, A(H1N1) Current Timeline, CDC Cases

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