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Tag Archives: debt

  • Blog

    We’ve Arrived At The End Of The Road

    Decades of central bank intervention have left us with an unavoidable insolvency crisis
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, July 19, 2019, 6:33 PM

    15

    When Richard Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, fully severing the US dollar from its gold standard, the Federal Reserve and other world central banks found themselves liberated. No longer was their ability to provide liquidity constrained by the physical limitations of the gold supply. The Fed started intervening more and more during…

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  • Blog
    Black Swan Event

    Waiting For The Black Swan

    War with Iran would be the beginning of the end
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 14, 2019, 2:38 PM

    31

    Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning  (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.

    A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp.   Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Into The Abyss

    The Fed's actions are quickly becoming the trigger that will blow up the system
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, June 13, 2019, 6:56 PM

    8

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

    • The Fed’s Desperation
      • It’s just playing for time at this point
    • Why Lower Rates Will Blow Up The System
      • ZIRP/Negative rates create all sort of perversities
    • Italy Threatens To Revert To The Lira
      • Is the Eurozone about to break up?
    • Bad Corporate Debt Is The Ticking Time Bomb
      • There’s simply way too much of it now

    In this excellent analysis, John does an exceptional job clarifying the unique point in economic history in which we live. The Federal Reserve is truly out of ideas at this point; it is simply playing for time until the system breaks:

    The point in the cycle where we are now is a really unusual time to talk about lowering interest rates. Normally when the labor markets are this tight, and wage inflation is running around 3% which it is right now, the Fed is usually tightening. Wage inflation is a kind of inflation they understand. This is as opposed to stock prices going up, bond prices, or house prices going up. That is inflation, but they do not count it as inflation. When wages go up, they usually start raising interest rates. It is really telling that they are seeing things that lead them to maybe start easing again even with the economy, in theory at least, still growing ten years into the beginning of an expansion.

    I think they are recognizing the fact that the world – not just the US, but the whole global financial system – is so highly leveraged that any kind of downturn becomes systemically risky. In other words, a 20% drop in stock prices which is the definition of a bear market is something that happens all the time at least historically. This time around, it might knock down other dominos in a way that is uncontrollable. This is just because there is so much bad debt out there.

    When you take on huge amounts of debt, by definition a lot of it has to be bad debt. Usually the good credits have already done their borrowing. If you are going to expand that beyond that point, you are going to have to work your way down into the barrel to the bottom of the barrel. That is where we are now. A lot of people who have borrowed money cannot pay it back. They are only hanging on because the economy is growing and because their paychecks are there. If you take that away, then Boom!. The system starts to fall apart.

    These guys know that at the Fed. They are trying to delay the inevitable easing because they know that interest rates are already so low. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan never did get to raise interest rates. The Fed only got to raise interest rates a little bit, which means they have no ammo going into the next recession. Normally the Fed will cut interest rates by about 5 percentage points from peak to trough. This is as a way of reinvigorating the economy during a recession. If they were going to do that now, we would be at negative 2 or 3% on the Fed funds rate. It would be more deeply negative for Europe and Japan. That is uncharted territory.

    What the Fed is doing now is using words. They are trying to talk the market up. It works (for now). Whenever they announce the possibility of easing or the cessation of tightening, you get a nice pop in the stock market. They are hoping that they can elevate asset prices until the China trade deal gets signed and until the turmoil in the Middle East has settled. That will also give the markets a pop, and that will keep the economy growing for a while. It will allow them to raise interest rates another couple of percentage points at the short end of the spectrum to give them ammo for the next recession.

    They really do not want to start cutting right now. From here, they really do not have much room to cut. I think it is highly unlikely that they are going to get what they want. In other words, it is an economy that grows for the next three years and allows them to raise the Fed funds rate to 5 or 6%. That is really, really unlikely in the scheme of things. They are going to be forced in the recession that is probably imminent just because the expansion has been going on for way longer than a normal expansion. It is going to run out of steam pretty soon. They are going to be forced to cut interest rates to zero and beyond.

    That is why Powell was talking about that. Now he is talking about the effective lower bound of interest rates which is below 0%, we found out in this last cycle. We do not know how far below zero it is. That is what we are going to find out this time around. In other words, how negative can you make interest rates before it becomes the problem rather than the solution? From an economic theory standpoint, that is fascinating. That is the kind of experiment you never expect to see in the real world. We are going to do it this time.

    We are going to find out what the absolute lowest level interest rates can go to before it blows up the system. I do not use the words “blow up” lightly. That is what could really happen when interest rates get down to that point, and it turns out they do not work. Then it is game over.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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  • Podcast

    Turd Ferguson: The Highs In Gold Are Ahead Of Us

    The reasons to own it never changed & are now more important than ever
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, June 4, 2019, 6:52 PM

    11

    With the world re-entering a period of greater economic instability, with the central banks painted into a corner, with global stocks looking weaker by the day, the price of gold is starting to shine again.

    The yellow metal has recently hit all-time highs priced in a number of world currencies (the dollar not among them…yet).

    Is this a short-term result of ‘risk-off’ fever as the markets have stumbled, to be undone during the next rally in stocks? Or are we seeing the beginnings of a more fundamental re-pricing of gold (and silver), as investors wake up to the currency risks created by more than quintupling the world money supply within less than a decade while simultaneously buring the economy under trillions of newly-minted debt?

    Craig Hemke, better known by his nom-de-plume, Turd Ferguson, explains why gold looks like it finally has a brighter future ahead.

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  • Insider
    Downturn

    Why The Next U.S. Recession Will Be Exceptionally Painful

    Our enormous & unserviceable debts are going to crush us
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, June 3, 2019, 2:29 PM

    16

    We all know another recession is coming at some point.

    Economies are cyclical. Bust always follows boom in the same way the moon follows the sun.

    We very nearly had a recession in early 2016. I remain impressed how it was averted then by the application of tremendous amounts of newly-printed-from-thin-air money.  It took several trillions of dollars globally, but it worked (if we can call enabling the global economy to take on additional $trillions in debt that will never be repaid ‘working’)

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  • Blog

    The Company Store

    Leaves almost nothing to live on
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, May 3, 2019, 1:33 PM

    20

    The scam enabled by today’s financial ““markets”” coupled with lots of easy cheap credit flowing to big monied interests is every bit as egregious as the company store of old; only today’s victims are mostly blind to the way that the system is rigged against them.

    Run this scam long enough and one day we’ll discover that the banks and their proxy agents — private equity funds, hedge funds, endowments, and family offices, etc — own all of the productive farmland, all of the mines, all of the oil wells, all of the timberland, and every other means of primary wealth production.

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  • Insider
    Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: The Current System Is A Servitude Trap

    You need to escape it to prosper
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, April 11, 2019, 8:43 AM

    9

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

    • Our Current System Is A Servitude Trap
      • You need to escape it to prosper
    • The Rich Own The Assets & The Rest Own The Debt
      • Which is why its so hard to move up socio-economically these days
    • Asset Bubbles Pevert Opportunity
      • Big lifedesicsions become much more speculative
    • The Scary Side of Facebook/Google Media Monoply
      • Private industry & the government sharing our data

    This was the podcast orginally planned to run last week, but we bumped it to rush to you the time-sensitve reveations from Art Berman regarding the Ghawar oil field depletion data.

    In *this* podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith pull back the veil covering the architecture underlying today's society, exposing how the system is designed to trap us all in servitude to the parties running it. From how we're eductated, to the options available to us with our jobs and our money, to how our own personal data is increasingly being used to manipulate us — increasingly the only way to prosper in terms of wealth and well-being is to break from convention and operate outside of the system as much as possible.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: When Does The System Break?

    Where's the line where inflation will become hyperinflation?
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, February 20, 2019, 10:13 AM

    19

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

    • When Does The System Break?
      • When will (hyper)inflation become the greater risk?
    • When Will The Central Banks Lose Control?
      • Their intervention is becoming increasingly desperate
    • Recession & Debt Exhaustion
      • These are limits that can't be 'printed away' forever
    • The Rise Of Authoritarianism
      • More countries are giving the State more power

    One of the most frequent questions we're asked here at Peak Prosperity is: When does all this blow up? When do the sins of the past — rampant debt/deificit spending, monetary meddling, cronyism, lies & propaganda, resource despoilage — catch up with us and force a day of reckoning?

    Well, in this week's podcast, Chris and John Rubino bravely attempt to answer. Their conclusions aren't pretty; it's better we be forewarned of the risks than slam into them blindly.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Blog

    2019: The Beginning Of The End (Free Premium Report)

    What will happen next & what to do now
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, January 17, 2019, 9:07 AM

    21

    Now that it is 2019, we’re going to start the new year here at Peak Prosperity by responding to our community and making our most recent report for our premium subscribers free to everyone.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by frankieleon, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 11/21 – Bitcoin-Rigging Criminal Probe Launched, Who’s Going to Pay for LA’s Pension Plans?

    by saxplayer00o1

    Wednesday, November 21, 2018, 3:04 PM

    1
    • Parks chief warns of 'massive cuts, huge layoffs' as soon as 2020 (Chicago)
    • No more excuses. Fix Pa. pension funds | Editorial
    • Who’s Going to Pay for LA’s Unsustainable Pension Plans?
    • ECB Official Warns QE Exit Could Spell Trouble for Italy's Debt
    • U.S. recession chances edge up, risk Fed delivers fewer hikes: Reuters poll
    • BOJ's Kuroda rules out early end of negative rate policy (Japan)
    • Unthinkable?
    • Bitcoin-Rigging Criminal Probe Focused on Tie to Tether
    • NY BitLicense Approval, Blockchain for Energy Commodities, CFTC Enforcement, Advertising Use Cases and More

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