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Tag Archives: cryptocurrency

  • Insider

    Estimating Bitcoin’s Fair Value

    Spoiler alert: It's much higher than its current price
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, January 6, 2017, 3:13 PM

    48

    Executive Summary

    • Why No Nation Truly Has Full Control Over Its Currency
    • Why Sovereign Efforts To Control Currencies Is Driving Capital Into Digital Currencies
    • The Driver's Of Digital Currency & Value
    • Calculating Bitcoin's Fair Value

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The U.S. Dollar And Bitcoin Keep Rising available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we reviewed the dynamics of demand and utility that drive the valuation of any tradeable good, service, commodity and currency.  We established that it’s impossible to understand how a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar can retain a value above its tangible value of zero unless we accept its utility value and its non-tangible sources of value, i.e. the wealth and wealth generation of the issuing nation and state.

    We now turn to the second half of the question posed in Part 1: Why isn’t the market value of a digital currency such as bitcoin zero?

    Or perhaps more interestingly: How high might the price of bitcoin go?

    To answer this question, we must investigate another question: Can any state control the value of its currency and its place in the global economy? I suggest the answer is no. Beneath a surface veneer of status quo continuity, nations and states are losing the ability to control their role in the global economy and thus the utility of their currency.

    To understand why, we turn to socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

    Who Controls a Rapidly Changing World-System?

    Wallerstein is recognized for advancing the concept of world-system, his term for what I call a global Mode of Production, i.e., the political, social, financial and economic system that governs the relations of power, labor, capital, trade and resources (broadly speaking, our understanding of Nature and the extraction of its resources).  In a recent essay China is Confident: How Realistic?, he observed that "countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

    These two paragraphs get to the essence of his analysis…

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  • Blog
    © Lightboxx | Dreamstime.com

    Fortunes Will Be Made & Lost When Capital Flees To Safety

    As safe havens are tiny markets
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, June 24, 2016, 8:46 PM

    11

    Little did I realize when creating the short video below how prescient it would quickly become in the wake of last night's Brexit vote…

    It's message is simple: there's a preponderance of data that shows the world's major asset markets are dangerously overvalued. And when these asset bubbles start to burst, the 'save haven' markets that investment capital will try to flee to are ridiculously small. Investors who do not start moving their capital in advance of crisis will be forced to pay much higher prices for safety — or may find they can't get into these markets at any price.

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  • Blog
    3Dsculptor/Shutterstock

    An Everyman’s Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies

    What are they exactly? Why consider owning them?
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, June 10, 2016, 9:51 PM

    17

    When an asset rises by almost 30% in a few weeks, it tends to attract attention.  Recently, that asset was bitcoin (BTC). The price of BTC in dollars rose from $454 on May 23 to $590 on June 6th.

    When an asset doubles in a matter of months, it tends to attract attention.  The cryptocurrency Ether (part of the Ethereum platform) doubled from around $7 in April to roughly $14 in early June.

    Are these cryptocurrencies mere fads? Or are they potentially game-changing alternatives to the conventional currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Chinese RMB, Japanese yen or European Union euro?

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  • Insider
    M. Primakov/Shutterstock

    Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters?

    The reasons why they very well may
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, June 10, 2016, 9:50 PM

    29

    Executive Summary

    • How will increasing capital controls around the world affect demand for cryptocurrencies?
    • The big banks and corporations are embracing the blockchain. Will that make it harder to ban cryptocurrencies?
    • With far less than 1% of the population holding cryptocurrencies, how large is the remaining updside?
    • What the future may hold for bitcoin and its digital brethren

    If you have not yet read An Everyman's Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we sketched a brief overview of cryptocurrencies and their potential role as a means of transferring and thus preserving capital from depreciating currencies in destabilized economies to more secure currencies/assets elsewhere in the world.

    The Rise of Capital Controls Fuels the Use of Cryptocurrencies

    As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets.

    China is a prime example of this trend. As the U.S. dollar has soared 20+%, China’s currency has strengthened along with the USD due to the yuan being pegged to the USD. In response, China must devalue its currency to maintain the global competitiveness of its export sector.

    Faced with a massive loss of purchasing power, China’s wealthy class has moved their wealth and their families out of China. This flood of capital has pushed up housing prices in favored markets such as Vancouver B.C. and west coast cities in the U.S.

    The sums being transferred abroad are non-trivial. Estimates range into the trillions of dollars. Many observers see the rise of capital controls as…

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  • Insider

    The Future of Money

    Which new systems will rise from the ashes?
    by charleshughsmith

    Thursday, April 9, 2015, 6:02 PM

    11

    Executive Summary

    • Money functions as a store of value and a means of exchange, but it's possible to have 2 forms (or more) of money simultaneously serving as each
    • Having complementary forms of money can provide more resilience to a monetary system – history has a number of examples of this
    • A key success factor of such systems is that the forms of money are NOT issues and controlled by the State
    • Which new forms of money will arise when the current State fiat money regimes fail

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Fatal Flaw Of Centrally-Issued Money available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Separating Money’s Two Functions

    Money has two basic functions: it is a store of value (that is, it holds its purchasing power long after you obtain it in trade for goods and services) and it is a means of exchange: there has to be enough in circulation to grease the exchange of goods and services.

    Though we are accustomed to one form of money playing both of these roles, there is no reason why each function can’t be served by separate kinds of money—that is, one for exchange and one as a store of value.

    This is precisely what we find in the historical record, where bills of exchange, letters of credit (in essence, credit money), paper chits from retailers and other ephemeral means of exchange greased trade while gold and silver or other scarce materials served as stores of value.

    As anthropologist David Graeber established in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, money arose not from barter—the usual assumption—but from the rise of credit-based exchange and debt recorded on clay tablets, notched sticks or parchment.

    In Graeber’s view, the key feature of money used for exchange is that it always has an end buyer.  The intrinsically worthless chit issued by a retailer can serve as money through dozens of transactions because everyone trusts that the issuer—the retailer—will accept the chit as being worth an established amount of goods, i.e. purchasing power.

    If Joe’s Market issues a chit that can be traded for a can of beans, you and I can exchange that chit as payment of debt or purchase of some other good or service because we know we can always exchange the chit for a can of beans.  The chit serves as money.

    When gold and silver were scarce in…

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