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Tag Archives: contagion

  • Daily Digest
    Image by Mark Turnauckas, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 9/3 – Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground, ‘Point Of No Return’ For Earth 17 Years Away

    by DailyDigest

    Monday, September 3, 2018, 1:41 PM

    5
    • 10 years after the financial crisis, is the housing market still at risk?
    • The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground
    • The Global Alliance for Evil 
    • Lead in US school water “disturbing”—Detroit just shut off all fountains
    • Trump Has Changed How Teens View the News
    • The point of no return for our planet is only 17 years away
    • Melting Arctic Creates New Opportunities For LNG
    • Bangkok Struggles To Stay Afloat Amid Global Warming, Rising Sea Levels
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  • Daily Digest
    Image by reyner media, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 9/2 – Scientists Warn UN of Capitalism’s Imminent Demise, Skim Reading Is The New Normal

    by DailyDigest

    Sunday, September 2, 2018, 3:53 PM

    4
    • Scientists Warn the UN of Capitalism's Imminent Demise
    • A deadly storm is coming in Syria 
    • Report: Trump Admin Denying Passports to Citizens Along Border
    • So Much for The Great California Bail Celebration
    • Elections board takes less than a minute to reject proposal to close 7 of 9 polling places in majority-black county 
    • Skim reading is the new normal. The effect on society is profound
    • Attention, Shoppers: Kroger Says It Is Phasing Out Plastic Bags
    • U.S. court orders Trump administration to enforce chemical safety rule

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  • Insider
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    What Will Happen When Japan Breaks

    Mapping the contagion risk to world markets
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, November 6, 2014, 1:36 PM

    7

    Executive Summary

    • The data that proves Japan is a ticking time bomb
    • Why the yen may still fall a lot further from here
    • How Japan's contagion can threaten world markets (and yes, the US)
    • Why the contagion is now underway, and what you should do about it

    If you have not yet read Central Planners Are In A State of Panic available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Japan, By The Numbers

    I completely understand why the Japanese authorities are freaking out and taking enormous risks.  It's because they have no good choices left.  More fundamentally (and worse) they are in charge of a system that is destined to fail.

    Exponential money systems have to eventually fail because all paper money is just a marker for real wealth, it is not real wealth itself, and therefore ever-increasing exponential paper claims being stacked up  against a world of real wealth that is growing much less quickly (and someday reversing entirely) is a mathematical formula for a monetary accident.

    But it's quite bizarre that Japan, of all places, cannot see through to this math predicament given their very publicly and often discussed demographic decline.

    Having peaked at 128 million in 2005, Japan now has 127 million inhabitants and is on its way to 90 million by 2050, and 45 million by ~2100.

    (Source)

    This means that..

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  • Blog
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    The Periphery is Failing

    The next big economic dislocation might be only weeks away
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 8:04 PM

    26

    For years we've preached the From the Outside In principle of markets: When trouble starts, it nearly always does so out in the weaker periphery before creeping towards the core.

    We saw this in the run-up to the housing bubble collapse, as sub-prime mortgages gave way before prime loans, and in Europe, as smaller economies like Greece, Ireland, and Cyprus have fallen first and hardest (so far).  We see this today in accelerating food stamp use among poorer U.S. households.  In each case, the weaker economic parties give way first before being followed, over time, by the stronger ones.

    Using this framework, we can often get several weeks to several months of advance notice before trouble erupts in the next ring closer to the center.

    Which makes today notable, as we're receiving a number of new warning signs.  The periphery is giving way.

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  • Insider

    Off the Cuff: Contagion Within Europe

    Europe's leaders are resorting to shoddy number tricks a 4th
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, June 17, 2012, 11:15 AM

    2

    In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

    • Desperate Measures
      • The math behind the latest 'rescue' attempts is so broken it falls apart at first glance
    • How Much Time Do We Have Left?
      • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
    • Where to Park Capital
      • The options worth considering grow fewer in number, though Europeans should take action soon

    Europe continues to figure prominently in Chris and Mish's minds at the moment. The action there is what's driving the world agenda right now, and the decisions taken to address the European crisis will have tremendous impact on the financial markets around the globe. Much is happening right now — but for longtime 'Off the Cuff' listeners, it's important to keep in perspective that little has actually changed. Europe's problem is a mathematical one. Too many bad loans were made. In practically every country. Steep losses will need to be taken. Taking those losses will place painful deflationary pressure on asset prices. The key question is: how much new money will central banks print to service and retire those debts?…

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  • Blog

    The Real Contagion Risk

    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, October 24, 2011, 2:12 PM

    0

    Around here we like to track things from the outside in, as the initial movements at the periphery tend to give us an early warning of when things might go wrong at the center. It is always the marginal country, weakest stock in a sector, or fringe population that gives us the early warning that trouble is afoot. For example, rising food stamp utilization and poverty levels in the US indicate that economic hardship is progressing from the lower socioeconomic levels up towards the center — that is, from the outside in.

    That exact pattern is now playing out in Europe, although arguably the earliest trouble was detected with the severe weakness seen in the eastern European countries nearly two years ago. 

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