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Tag Archives: central banks

  • Blog
    propertyesp.com.au

    It's 2016 All Over Again. Or Is It?

    The fate of the global economy rides on the answer
    by cmartenson

    Saturday, April 20, 2019, 7:59 AM

    8

    Conditions today mirror 2016, when growing weakness in the global economy and wobbling financial markets caused the world’s central banks to absolutely freak out.

    They responded by dumping more thin-air money into the system than ever before in history. And it worked (for them at least). Economic growth stabilized; and the prices of stocks, real estate, and other assets enjoyed another three-year joyride.

    Similary, as things started getting shaky in late 2018, the same playbook was deployed. And again, we've seen stocks rocket upwards ever since. 

    But will the strategy actually work this time?  It's unclear. And a lot is riding on the answer.

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  • Blog
    EHSToday

    The Bull(y) Rally

    Something unnatural is going on
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, April 14, 2019, 3:00 PM

    17

    “A bully is always a coward.”

    ~ Thomas Chandler Haliburton

    The current market rally is like a playground bully; shoving to the ground anyone in its path.

    But like all bullies, the braggadocio belies an underlying cowardice.

    Those in charge of the status quo must be absolutely terrified to resort to the unnatural lengths they are going to right now to keep the current rally intact.

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  • Podcast

    Sven Henrich: It's Make Or Break Time For The Markets

    Stocks are poised to break big, one way or the other
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, April 1, 2019, 4:46 PM

    4

    It's make or break time in the markets cautions Sven Henrick, technical analyst and lead market strategist for Northman Trader.

    His weekly flurry of trendline charts warn that the major indexes have been compressing in rising wedges that increasingly point to a binary outcome: either a massive new leg up that will result in the market making new all time highs, or a bad breadown that could waterfall into a 2008-style correction.

    His reams of data increasingly suggest that today's global elevated asset prices are in no way justified by the fundamentals of the underlying world economies. And that someday — perhaps quite soon — a reckoning long overdue will occur.

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  • Blog

    A Primer On How To Buy And Store Gold & Silver

    Most people aren't aware of the full range of options
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, March 30, 2019, 4:19 PM

    25

    I'm always surprised by how few people understand the options for buying precious metals. Even the very affluent.

    I find myself guilty of assuming that everyone is as familar as I with the full specturm of gold-silver purchase options available. So to correct that, I've taken the time this week to detail those options out for the novice buyer.

    So, if you've been thinking about converting some of your paper fiat money into precious metals but are unsure how to start, wonder no more.

    Below is a primer of the main options available to you, and in which situations each makes sense to consider.

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  • Blog

    Hair-Trigger Markets

    Bull market liftoff? Or bear rally rollover?
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, March 16, 2019, 10:33 PM

    4

    The market looks very much paused at the brink of a breakout here. The question is: up or down?

    The bulls are expecting a sharp rebound in GDP from Q1, which they claim was artificially low due the government shutdown. They point to 2018's solid 3% economic growth, claiming the US is humming along fine and about to get a shot of adrenaline once America and China announce an end to their trade war. In their eyes, the S&P is poised to rocket higher once it punches vigorously above 2820.

    The bears see a topping out of a classic bear market rally, one that has been propelled by no convincing fundamentals — only central bank jawboning/easing and continued massive buyback programs (plus this week's rare Quad Witch options expiration). They see an extremely overbought market, with stocks ready to break down to new lows for the year.

    Which way will thing break?

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  • Insider

    Tuning Into Reality

    Here's the hard data that they *don't* want you to see
    by cmartenson

    Friday, February 22, 2019, 5:48 PM

    8

    Executive Summary

    • The central banks are the key players at this stage. When they fail, the system will fail.
    • How today's Frankenmarkets are poised to collapse
    • Where we see the most convincing signs that the global economy is now falling into recession
    • Why we should expect bad times to lead to even worse decisions

    If you have not yet read Part 1: We're Living In 'The Groundhog Show', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The reason I still get angry and frustrated from time to time is because we’re just wasting very important time and resources that really ought to be dedicated to other pursuits.

    As I watch the US electorate recklessly lurch from one emotional outrage to another, I truly wonder if this is really just the emergent outcome of how events spread virally — or if it’s not something more intentional and sinister. Is this all a program designed to keep people revved up but pointed in the wrong directions?

    So if you find yourself increasingly feeling that things are really off track, that’s probably because you’ve also been paying close attention to the news. Whether by design or default, this doesn’t speak well to our ability to rally effectively to address the many massive predicaments society faces.

    As an ex-Facebook executive said about the nefarious aspects of the social media phenomenon he helped to create, “No civil discourse, no cooperation, misinformation, mistruth; you are being programmed.”

    That closely matches what I am seeing in the online world now. And it’s really unfortunate, because the stakes are so high. We really need to begin preparing for a very different future.   

    Which is hard, if not nearly impossible to do in a fractured and polarized world such as the one that’s been emerging over the past few years.

    The central banks are at the very center of it all.  The financial markets have taken on a new significance in the world and are now one of the prime, if not the prime, signaling mechanisms used by central planners to communicate with the world.

    So it's critical to understand that the most important factor in play is…

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  • Blog

    We're Living In 'The Groundhog Show'

    In which our leaders make the same mistakes over & over
    by cmartenson

    Friday, February 22, 2019, 3:48 PM

    45

    It's said that truth mirrors fiction. I'm finding this to be the case more and more these days.

    Take the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day. Bill Murray wakes up each day to relieve the exact same daily circumstances and interpersonal interactions. He relives the same day, February 2, over and over again.No matter what he does, the repetitive cycle won't break.  He goes to sleep, wakes up to his alarm, and it's the morning of Feb 2 again.

    Likewise, in The Truman Show, Jim Carrey lives in a simulated environment where everybody's an actor in a popular TV show except him.  For him, it’s his real life.  But although he doesn't realise it, everything around him is completely scripted and fake.

    If merge these two movies together, they perfectly describe the world in which we live today.  Welcome to Groundhog Day meets The Truman Show.   Let’s call this mash-up The Groundhog Show.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: When Does The System Break?

    Where's the line where inflation will become hyperinflation?
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, February 20, 2019, 10:13 AM

    19

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

    • When Does The System Break?
      • When will (hyper)inflation become the greater risk?
    • When Will The Central Banks Lose Control?
      • Their intervention is becoming increasingly desperate
    • Recession & Debt Exhaustion
      • These are limits that can't be 'printed away' forever
    • The Rise Of Authoritarianism
      • More countries are giving the State more power

    One of the most frequent questions we're asked here at Peak Prosperity is: When does all this blow up? When do the sins of the past — rampant debt/deificit spending, monetary meddling, cronyism, lies & propaganda, resource despoilage — catch up with us and force a day of reckoning?

    Well, in this week's podcast, Chris and John Rubino bravely attempt to answer. Their conclusions aren't pretty; it's better we be forewarned of the risks than slam into them blindly.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Blog
    Wikimedia

    Next Stop: Recession!

    We've arrived at the end of the line
    by cmartenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:35 PM

    68

    We've enjoyed years of “recovery” since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes.

    But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and the plot heads in a much darker direction.

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  • Insider

    You vs The Recession

    To fail to plan is to plan to fail
    by cmartenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:23 PM

    2

    Executive Summary

    • The limits to central bank money printing
    • The key indicators signalling recession
    • The growing fractures in the US economy & housing market, Europe, China & global trade
    • Stepping out of the recession's path

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Next Stop: Recession!, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Here in early 2019 the central banks have already caved to the market’s December 2018 weakness by printing more money, softening their plans for reducing their balance sheets and delaying the already timid schedule for introducing new interest rate hikes.  They are panicking early and often and seem inordinately afraid of any sort of downturn in stock prices, which is a concerning matter in itself.

    So our asterisk on this claim of ours that a recession has arrived is contained in the phrase “until and unless.”  Until and unless the central banks reignite their QE booster rockets, and do so in larger-than-ever quantities, and do so by giving money to the common people (not the banks), we think that the die is cast.  The recession has arrived. 

    Perhaps we should introduce a second idea which is contained in the phrase “they can until they can’t.”  The central banks managed to get a bounce in the equity markets through a combination of easing financial conditions, as they say (i.e. throw more money to the markets), and jawboning. 

    This was sufficient to get a relief bounce in equity and bond markets, but it did nothing to alter the many recession indicators we’ll track for you below.  The central banks can still move the markets with their words and deed.  Someday, perhaps soon, it will be shown they can’t.  They can move markets until they can’t.  Other such times of the central banks being overwhelmed by the movement of the market tides were in 2000 and 2008.

    What sorts of things could or will swamp the levitating effects of money printing?  One is a full-blown recession that ends up crushing the various crevices that central banks cannot directly control via printing such as real estate, consumer sentiment, and zombie companies’ ability to meet debt payments.

    Another is a deflationary event that sweeps across overleveraged debt markets and causes the very worst sort of damage to a debt-based money system built on leverage; a decline in the amount of credit outstanding from one period to the next.  In other words, another 2008-2009 type of event.

    The central banks can control things until they can’t.  That’s what history says.  Perhaps something more fundamental has changed since that allows them more complete control than ever, and perhaps we should always have a few of our chips placed on that possibility, but otherwise it’s not different this time and the central banks will once again discover that credit bubbles are really fun on the way up and utterly destructive on the way down.

    We think the next recession has arrived and that it’s going to be a real doozy in terms of creating financial market panic and losses.

    Specifically, you need to watch out for…

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