On Tuesday, Mario Draghi apparently went rogue on his fellow policymakers and launched into a swan song version of his all-time hit “Whatever it takes”. The next day, Jerome Powell at the Fed confirmed his willingness to ease and let the market know he stands ready to cut rates multiple times over the next year.

That — plus a downed US drone patrolling the Iran border — poured gasoline on gold, which spiked as high as $1,410/oz, finally breaking free of the $1,350 ceiling that had blocked its advance for years.

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Conditions today mirror 2016, when growing weakness in the global economy and wobbling financial markets caused the world’s central banks to absolutely freak out.

They responded by dumping more thin-air money into the system than ever before in history. And it worked (for them at least). Economic growth stabilized; and the prices of stocks, real estate, and other assets enjoyed another three-year joyride.

Similary, as things started getting shaky in late 2018, the same playbook was deployed. And again, we've seen stocks rocket upwards ever since. 

But will the strategy actually work this time?  It's unclear. And a lot is riding on the answer.

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“A bully is always a coward.”

~ Thomas Chandler Haliburton

The current market rally is like a playground bully; shoving to the ground anyone in its path.

But like all bullies, the braggadocio belies an underlying cowardice.

Those in charge of the status quo must be absolutely terrified to resort to the unnatural lengths they are going to right now to keep the current rally intact.

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It's make or break time in the markets cautions Sven Henrick, technical analyst and lead market strategist for Northman Trader.

His weekly flurry of trendline charts warn that the major indexes have been compressing in rising wedges that increasingly point to a binary outcome: either a massive new leg up that will result in the market making new all time highs, or a bad breadown that could waterfall into a 2008-style correction.

His reams of data increasingly suggest that today's global elevated asset prices are in no way justified by the fundamentals of the underlying world economies. And that someday — perhaps quite soon — a reckoning long overdue will occur.

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I'm always surprised by how few people understand the options for buying precious metals. Even the very affluent.

I find myself guilty of assuming that everyone is as familar as I with the full specturm of gold-silver purchase options available. So to correct that, I've taken the time this week to detail those options out for the novice buyer.

So, if you've been thinking about converting some of your paper fiat money into precious metals but are unsure how to start, wonder no more.

Below is a primer of the main options available to you, and in which situations each makes sense to consider.

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The market looks very much paused at the brink of a breakout here. The question is: up or down?

The bulls are expecting a sharp rebound in GDP from Q1, which they claim was artificially low due the government shutdown. They point to 2018's solid 3% economic growth, claiming the US is humming along fine and about to get a shot of adrenaline once America and China announce an end to their trade war. In their eyes, the S&P is poised to rocket higher once it punches vigorously above 2820.

The bears see a topping out of a classic bear market rally, one that has been propelled by no convincing fundamentals — only central bank jawboning/easing and continued massive buyback programs (plus this week's rare Quad Witch options expiration). They see an extremely overbought market, with stocks ready to break down to new lows for the year.

Which way will thing break?

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It's said that truth mirrors fiction. I'm finding this to be the case more and more these days.

Take the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day. Bill Murray wakes up each day to relieve the exact same daily circumstances and interpersonal interactions. He relives the same day, February 2, over and over again.No matter what he does, the repetitive cycle won't break.  He goes to sleep, wakes up to his alarm, and it's the morning of Feb 2 again.

Likewise, in The Truman Show, Jim Carrey lives in a simulated environment where everybody's an actor in a popular TV show except him.  For him, it’s his real life.  But although he doesn't realise it, everything around him is completely scripted and fake.

If merge these two movies together, they perfectly describe the world in which we live today.  Welcome to Groundhog Day meets The Truman Show.   Let’s call this mash-up The Groundhog Show.

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We've enjoyed years of “recovery” since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes.

But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and the plot heads in a much darker direction.

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