Tag Archives: Cash

  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: The Unsinkable(?) Market

    No data is too bad enough to stop its rise
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, July 21, 2017, 6:06 AM


    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

    • The Unsinkable Market
      • No data is bad enough to stop its rise
    • The Disappearance Of Volatility
      • Gone, but for how long?
    • Failing Pension Plans
      • A truly massive crisis in the making
    • Cash, Gold & Bitcoin
      • The only places for capital to find safety?

    During these doldrum days of summer, where no matter the news, today's "unsinkable" markets continue to march ever upwards, Mish shares his thoughts on what will finally cause asset prices to tank.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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  • Blog

    2016 Year In Review

    A Clockwork Orange
    by David Collum

    Friday, December 23, 2016, 1:03 AM


    Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full.

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  • Blog

    Money Under Fire

    A reminder of the great wealth transfer underway
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, December 12, 2016, 3:21 PM


    The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation.

    The mind-boggling part about all this is that it's not really all that hard to grasp.

    Our collective predicament is simply this: Nothing can grow forever.

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  • Insider

    How My Personal Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now

    You've asked. I answer.
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, June 24, 2016, 8:46 PM


    Executive Summary

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Fortunes Will Be Made & Lost When Capital Flees To Safety available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    So, given the conclusions in Part 1 — as well as the larger risks to the economy and financial markets that we analyze daily here at Peak Prosperity — how am I positioning my own personal investments?

    I get asked this question often. Often enough that I'm deciding to open the kimono here and let it drop to the ground. Everyone interested to look will get the full frontal.

    Before I do though, let me make a few things absolutely clear. This is NOT personal financial advice. The investment choices I've made are based on my own unique situation, financial goals and risk tolerance. And I may change these choices at any moment given new market developments. What's appropriate for me may not be for you, so DO NOT blindly duplicate what I'm doing.

    As always, we recommend working with a professional financial adviser to build an investment plan customized to your own needs and objectives. (If you do not have a financial adviser or do not feel comfortable with your current adviser's expertise in the market risks we discuss here at PeakProsperity.com, consider scheduling a free consultation with our endorsed adviser)

    Suffice it to say, any investment ideas sparked by this report should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

    OK, with that out of the way, let's get started. I'll walk through the asset classes I own and my rationale for holding each.

    The strategy behind my portfolio allocation is of my own devise, though it has been influenced in no small part by the good folks at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity's aforementioned endorsed financial adviser.

    At a high level, it has been constructed to address my strongly-held conclusions that:

    • Prices of most asset classes are dangerously overvalued
    • The risk of another economic contraction on par with (or greater than) the Great Recession within the next 2-4 years is uncomfortably high
    • The most likely path is we will experience a short period of coming deflation, followed soon after by one of high inflation as central banks starting printing currency without restraint (the Ka-POOM theory)
    • Capital will increasingly want to flow from paper assets (tertiary wealth) into tangible ones (primary and secondary wealth)
    • This is a time to prioritize protecting capital (defense) over speculating on how to grow it (offense)
    • Diversification is wise: just be emotionally prepared that some of your bets, by definition, will not pay off
    • In today's world of financial repression, no asset class is truly "safe". As such, asset performance is all relative.

    This is not a swing-for-the-fences portfolio. It's much more of a prepare-for-the-storm approach…

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  • Blog
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    The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold

    We're at a moment of historic opportunity
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 4:53 PM


    Every year or two we update this report, which lays out the investment thesis for gold. Here is this year’s version.

    Silver is touched upon only as necessary; as a separate report of equal scope is required for that precious metal.

    Gold is one of the few investments that every investor should have in their portfolio. We are now at the dangerous end-game period of a very bold but very reckless & disappointing experiment with the world’s fiat (unbacked) currencies. If this experiment fails — and we observe it’s in the process of failing — gold will provide one of the best forms of wealth insurance. But like all insurance products, it only works if you buy it before you need to rely on it.

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  • Insider
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    The War On Cash Intensifies

    Negative interest rates. A ban on cash. Pick your poison.
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, September 22, 2015, 1:45 AM


    The central planners are setting the stage for the next round of officially sanctioned theft and this time they mean to assure that you have no way(s) of escaping.

    They’re coming for your cash. This is a risk that Charles Hughes Smith explored for us back in June in a very well-received analysis.

    Once a fringe idea, this concept is now being openly discussed and debated at the highest levels publicly. Which means it is being hotly discussed behind closed doors, and likely has been for a long time.

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  • Insider

    What Happens Next Will Be Determined By One Thing: Capital Flows

    Follow the money
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, August 28, 2015, 6:28 PM


    Executive Summary

    • Why global capital flows will determine everything
    • What impact euphoria and fear wil have on liquidation and valuation
    • The importance of debt denominated in other currencies
    • What's likely as capital shifts from Risk-On to Risk-Off assets

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Here's Why The Markets Have Suddenly Become So Turbulent available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we listed five interlocking trends that will severely limit the scale and effectiveness of official responses to the next recession. In effect, the world will not be able to “borrow and spend” its way out of recession.

    In Part 2, we’ll examine the single most important dynamic in any asset value: capital flows.

    The Tidal Forces of Capital

    Let’s start with the most basic building blocks of supply and demand.

    Capital flowing into an assets class (buying) in excess of capital flowing out (selling) increases demand and pushes prices up.

    If supply increases even faster than demand, prices may decline despite rising demand.

    If capital flows out (selling) in excess of inflows (buying), prices will decline.

    Prices are set on the margin.  If 5 homes out of a neighborhood of 100 homes sell for 25% below the previous price level, the valuation of the other 95 homes also drops 25%.

    Risk on = seeking asset appreciation and taking on more risk in exchange for higher yields.

    Risk off = seeking capital preservation and accepting lower yields in exchange for reduced risk.

    Assets have two ways to appreciate/depreciate: the nominal price, and the underlying currency the asset is priced in.

    If a Mongolian bond yields 7%, the owner earned a nominal 7% on the capital. But if the currency the bond is denominated in dropped 20%, the owner suffered a 13% loss when the investment is priced in other currencies.

    The consequences of capital flows can be counter-intuitive.

    For example, if the Federal Reserve creates $1 trillion out of thin air, our initial expectation would be…

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  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: A Financial Adviser’s View Of The Recent Market Turbulence

    New Harbor weighs in
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 28, 2015, 6:26 AM


    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and New Harbor Financial discuss the recent gyrations of the market.

    • Are we witnessing a secular trend reversal?
    • What's likely to happen next?
    • How can prudent investors position themselves now?
    • Where can shelter best be taken?
    • Is it time for risk-seekers to place bets?

    All these questions and more are addressed in this podcast. Needless to say, this is one of the most challenging times to protect capital in living memory. 

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  • Insider

    They’re Coming For Your Cash

    Liquidity-starved banks will take your savings via bail-ins
    by Nomi Prins

    Friday, July 3, 2015, 4:19 PM


    Executive Summary

    • The banking system runs on liquidity
    • Banks will do anything to keep it flowing — including raiding their depositors
    • The risks of a global liquidity crunch are dangerously high today
    • Why extracting physical cash from the system is highly advised

    If you have not yet read Part 1: In A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    It's All About Liquidity For The Banks

    Liquidity is the buzz-word that central banks used to justify their policies of keeping short term rates at zero (give or take) percent and buying bonds from banks in return for giving them more of it. Central banks say their primary responsibility is to balance full employment with low inflation, but that’s just code for being able to keep the largest banks solvent in times of emergency by all means possible. This current emergency has lasted nearly seven years and counting.  

    Here are my laws of liquidity behavior:

    The first law of liquidity – when it is most needed, it will be least available.

    The second law of liquidity – the easier it is to get, the less value it holds for the recipient.

    The third law of liquidity – the harder it is to find, the greater its systemic cost.

    Banks gain on multiple fronts from “accommodative” monetary policy with respect to their liquidity needs. First, they can borrow money at next to nothing. Second, they can hoard that extra cash under the guise of complying with capital reserve requirements and get brownie points for passing stress tests because they are holding the cash or high quality assets bought with the cash, that central banks provided them to begin with. Third, they can sell bonds they don’t want or need at full value to central banks, and afterwards mark similar bonds at higher levels than the market would otherwise value them.

    This is all shell-game finance. It is why people should be diligent about…

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