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Tag Archives: black swan

  • Blog
    Black Swan Event

    Waiting For The Black Swan

    War with Iran would be the beginning of the end
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 14, 2019, 2:38 PM

    31

    Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning  (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.

    A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp.   Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by Billy Wilson Photography, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 1/1 – An Economic Call To Arms, The Dark Bounty Of Texas Oil

    by DailyDigest

    Monday, January 1, 2018, 4:10 PM

    2
    • The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One 
    • H.G. Wells vs. George Orwell: Their Debate Whether Science Is Humanity's Best Hope Continues Today 
    • Peak México
    • A Nobel Prize-winning economist thinks we’re asking all the wrong questions about inequality
    • An Economic Call to Arms: The Path to Prosperity for Commoners, Capitalists & Crypto-Anarchists Alike
    • Hidden in Plain Sight
    • Science Says Fitness Trackers Don't Work. Wear One Anyway 
    • The Dark Bounty Of Texas Oil 
    • Guest post: Bioenergy ‘flaw’ under EU renewable target could raise emissions
    • Alberta issues alert, natural gas outages in north during extreme cold snap
    • Summerside smart grid uses 46 per cent wind power

    Read More »

  • Blog
    Amitiel/Shutterstock

    Central Planners Are In A State of Panic

    Japan's black swan flaps its wings
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, November 6, 2014, 1:36 PM

    10

    Everything the central planners have tried has failed to bring widespread prosperity and has instead concentrated it dangerously at the top.   Whether by coincidence or conspiracy, every possible escape hatch for 99.5% of the people has been welded shut.  We are all captives in a dysfunctional system of money, run by a few for the few, and it is headed for complete disaster.

    To understand why, in all its terrible and fascinating glory, we need look no further than Japan.

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  • Insider
    Micha Klootwijk/Shutterstock

    What Will Happen When Japan Breaks

    Mapping the contagion risk to world markets
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, November 6, 2014, 1:36 PM

    7

    Executive Summary

    • The data that proves Japan is a ticking time bomb
    • Why the yen may still fall a lot further from here
    • How Japan's contagion can threaten world markets (and yes, the US)
    • Why the contagion is now underway, and what you should do about it

    If you have not yet read Central Planners Are In A State of Panic available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Japan, By The Numbers

    I completely understand why the Japanese authorities are freaking out and taking enormous risks.  It's because they have no good choices left.  More fundamentally (and worse) they are in charge of a system that is destined to fail.

    Exponential money systems have to eventually fail because all paper money is just a marker for real wealth, it is not real wealth itself, and therefore ever-increasing exponential paper claims being stacked up  against a world of real wealth that is growing much less quickly (and someday reversing entirely) is a mathematical formula for a monetary accident.

    But it's quite bizarre that Japan, of all places, cannot see through to this math predicament given their very publicly and often discussed demographic decline.

    Having peaked at 128 million in 2005, Japan now has 127 million inhabitants and is on its way to 90 million by 2050, and 45 million by ~2100.

    (Source)

    This means that..

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  • Blog

    Erik Townsend: Expect a US Price Shock as Black Swans Come Home to Roost

    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, March 2, 2012, 5:37 PM

    0

    American investor (and longtime CM.com member) Erik Townsend has spent the past several years living internationally, with an eye to which countries may be good alternatives if economic crisis and/or Peak Oil start to materially impact life in the US. 

    His main observation as an expat? Through its misguided policies, the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world, raising prices all over the globe (as an example, Erik cites a $57 chicken pot pie from the menu at a ‘working class’ restaurant in Australia). 

    This inflation is affecting the rest of the world harshly, but is not yet being felt in the US due to our ability to export it as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. Our immunity will not last forever though, and when it ends, a massive upwards spike in prices is going to hit US markets.

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