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    SPECIAL REPORT: The 10-Year Bull Market Just Died Of Coronavirus

    John Hussman & Steen Jakobsen tell us what to expect from here
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, March 12, 2020, 11:18 AM

Given the extraordinary and historic meltdown underway in the markets, we’ve just recorded interviews with two of the most prominent financial experts we know to make sense of what’s happening, and what’s most likely to come next. John Hussman is famous for his accurate predictions of both the 2001 and 2008 stock market crises, on which he made tremendous returns for investors. John makes very few public appearances — this is his first media interview in years. Steen Jakobsen is the Chief Investment officer of Saxo Bank. His macro market and political outlook are in high demand, making him a regular (though often contrarian) on major media such as CNBC and Bloomberg News. Both have been warning of the structural excesses and instabilities in both the global economy and financial markets that set the stage for the current breakdown we’re witnessing. That said, they remain extremely concerned that the carnage that has started is far from over. Below is a “double header” of arguably the best and freshest insight on what’s driving this violent market sell-off and what concerned investors should be paying most attention to at this point.

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38 Comments

  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 11:53am

    #1
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

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    1

    John Hussman

    One of /  The smartest guy(s) out there.  If I can just fight my way through 80% of one of his meaty reports, I consider myself a genius.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 12:17pm

    #2
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    1

    No idea where to post this now :D

    So i'll just post it here. If you *cannot* get an test, get a CT scan:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-x-rays-show-terrifying-21672219

    That should help with diagnosis.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 12:19pm

    #3
    Steve

    Steve

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    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 188

    4

    Time to brush-off the dust from this video from 2009?

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 12:35pm

    #4
    New_Life

    New_Life

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    $1.5 Trillion over 2 days

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-conduct-1-trillion-repo-over-two-days-stabilize-treasury-financing-market

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 1:27pm

    #5
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    Joined: Jan 22 2018

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    0

    John Hussman

    Excellent analysis by John Hussman. I consider myself pretty well educated on the markets but he came up with insights that had not occurred to me at all.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 1:43pm

    #6
    MonK

    MonK

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    0

    Today's Market Not Working

    how come the 'today's market' part of Peak Prosperity has stopped working? I miss it!

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 2:14pm

    #7
    rototillerman

    rototillerman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 09 2012

    Posts: 3

    2

    Let me tell you a story....

    Two and a half weeks ago when the market took its first big dump, I knew it was time to get out of Dodge.  My only real market exposure is at work in a 401-k.  Initially I was told that I could only make changes in my account every two weeks, when HR processes payroll.  Since we had just had a payroll process 24 hours before I settled in for a nervous two week wait.  A chance encounter with our CFO in the kitchen led me to ask whether the two week period applied to both changes in account contents, or just directives on where new money would go.  He clarified that we could buy and sell contents of the 401-K on a day by day basis, so five minutes later I had liquidated the bulk of my stock-based positions, and shifted them into the fund based on Treasury bills.  Actually, it was more complicated than that, now that I recall, and there was some foreshadowing.  I initially tried to just shift from the “Moderate” pre-built portfolio to the “Conservative” portfolio. When I tried to do that portfolio shift the web site came back with an error, saying that changes to the Conservative portfolio were in process, and you could not move funds to it.  Coincidental, no?  Anyway, I was on pins and needles the next day, Feb 28th, and when I didn’t see the trade reflected late in the day I called the managing company.  They told me this was normal, the web site runs 24 hours behind the market, yada yada, check back tomorrow.  So on Saturday the 29th I checked the web site, and the trade was showing.  90% out of the market, whew.

    The past week I’ve been complacently watching the carnage, secure in the knowledge that my exposure is limited.  Imagine my surprise, dismay and rage today when I logged in to clean out those last few positions and transfer them to the Treasury fund and I found those bastards had completely rewound my trades back to Feb 26th without telling me.  I will have dropped a another full 10 or 12 percent as a result.  Of course I have no screenshots showing the confirmation numbers of the original trades, but you can bet I have a screen shot of today’s trade. Eeeevil.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 2:36pm

    #8
    New_Life

    New_Life

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    Posts: 193

    1

    new Central Bank Currency

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51851523

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 2:44pm

    #9
    Mots

    Mots

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    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 304

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    Prep for the future with test kits

    Let's prep for this thing long term...... The Corona GMO will be with us indefinitely.  Waves will come around, particularly in the cold weather season, which is the best habitat for this little GMO gem.
    Our small self sufficient communities, which we evolve step by step as the empire collapses, will need corona GMO honeybadger testing as a service to secure community health and allow testing of visitors.  A simple biology lab bench can be set up and run by someone with basic training in microbiology.  I plan to do that as soon as ELISA test kits become available.  Here in Asia such test kits are coming out next week but available first to professional labs.  see https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/12/national/kurabo-import-sell-kits-can-detect-new-coronavirus-15-minutes-next-week/

    Some interviewees seem to think that China will implode and America or the West will rise and provide all solutions to all problems.  I dont agree.  Propaganda, 5G, Facebook, Google, WeChat and the rest have the world's minds locked down.  The vast majority of Chinese never heard of the Tiannamin Square incident and have been trained to chant "conspiracy nut!" in response to alternative thinking.  Most Americans believe two office buildings were destroyed by jet fuel on 9/11 and any mention of a 3rd building or the impossibility of a footprint fall leads to the trained chant of "conspiracy theorist!" or something like that.  Lets face it, we cannot rely on a "people" suddenly learning truth and rising up to revolt and create a beautiful future on their own without guidance from their beloved politicians.

    Successful small communities of the future, in their practice of peak prosperity will need community availability of 15 minute corona GMO honey badger testing.  Also essential is community based communications that can not be usurped and replaced with propaganda created by the apparatchiks from the dissolving rump of an expended empire.  The latter is a requirement to get out of the virtual smart phone matrix.

    I suggest that members of this blogspace who are interested can form working groups in these two interpersonal areas of small community peak prosperity: 1. communications, and 2. honeybadger virus testing.  I have little time but am slowly making progress in these areas....

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 2:53pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    RotoTman, digits on a screen; Fed funny money. :-(

    Holy Sh*t rototillerman, that is really awful and infuriating news! 🙁 This is probably happening to others, then will be announced after the fact by fund managers. I'm sorry you got caught in the shrinking exit door even after taking prudent steps to prevent that from happening.

    When it all comes down to it these ""markets"" are just digits on a screen at the casino; and TPTB control the digits and the screen, and the numbers are whatever they say they are based on opaque house rules and practices that can change immediately, without warning--even retroactively. (Hence, the case for holding a portion of your wealth in hard assets such as physical PMs.)

    But lets bail out the banks to the tune of $500Bin repo, right?? This absolutely crazy!

    *********************************************************************

    Update:  Make that $1.5 trillion in Fed funny money. F'kin unbelieveable!

    New York Fed says it will introduce $1.5 trillion in new repo operations and change maturities of Treasury purchases

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/new-york-fed-says-it-will-introduce-%241.5-trillion-in-new-repo-operations-and-change

     

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 3:04pm

    #11
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    2

    And it's not going to be enough.

    We'll see what futures do when they open for the next day. But i doubt $1,5 trillion is enough.

    I agree the amounts are ludicrous, but you have to remember:

    Between 2008 and 2009 they gave well over $16 trillion of liquidity to the biggest banks on the planet to try and prevent the system from collapsing.

    We live in a world that's 10 years past that, without anything having been fixed.

    And we're not even in a banking crisis yet! Spreads have blown out, but nobody's gotten downgraded (yet; those'll be imminent).

    All that's really happened is the Airlines are FUBAR, every company since boeing is drawing down all the credit they can possibly muster, and a *lot* of hedgefunds/ETFs got liquidated today.

    But the bondmarket still works. The credit market still works. The morgage, car loan, credit card, student loan, all those markets/bubbles *still* work. They're cracking, but haven't cracked yet.

    So honestly. $1,5T in 2 days is absolutely nothing. That won't even cover the pension fund losses alone (which haven't declared insolvency yet and haven't been bailed out yet; which is *also* still in the pipeline).

    How much did we lose in market value since the high 2 weeks ago? $10+ trillion? in 2 weeks?

    Anything under a $10 trillion straight up cash infusion into the system is a disappointment. And i'm not talking over years. I'm talking TARP 2 electric boogaloo.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 3:10pm

    #12
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Chris' newest (newest) video, live now: "How to Inform Your Family & Friends" (3/12)

    Coronavirus: How To Inform Your Friends & Family Without Creating Pushback (3/12/20)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogf6Hru2trE

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 3:14pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1219

    1

    You are a gem Mots!

    I like the idea of becoming self sufficient in testing...   and of course, I appreciated this;

    Most Americans believe two office buildings were destroyed by jet fuel on 9/11 and any mention of a 3rd building or the impossibility of a footprint fall leads to the trained chant of “conspiracy theorist!” or something like that.

    Your co-conspiracy theorist,  Jim

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 3:34pm

    #14
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Futures are open!

    NASDAQ gapped lower to -0,36% before the PPT sprung into action.

    It's really fighting desperately to have an up day.

    Edit: nope it went up to about 0,66% and now it's bouncing between that and as low as +0,1%.
    This is not a convincing overnight rally. This reeks of desperation.

    I'm going to go ahead and say Europe is going to drag everything down from the open again. We're not gonna have a good Friday. Dunno whether it's as bad as yesterday, commodities are mixed, but bitcoin ain't buying it and is sticking to it's downtrend for now.
    Probably a down day. Maybe a meh day. But i highly doubt we'll get a sustained rally at any point.

    Traders need a weekend to cool off, have policy makers actually come up with a response this time, as well as just assess the general damage. Several markets cracked for sure, those cracks need to be found before we can continue in earnest. Or yknow, not do anything like last time, play the republican/democrat blame game over another piece of paper, and watch next weeks monday be like this weeks monday. So for the friday... well just batten down the hatches and hope it isn't too bad i guess.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 4:01pm

    #15
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    3

    Shanghai Government Officially Recommends Vitamin C for COVID-19

    http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n16.shtml

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 4:07pm

    #16
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    FWIW: Rural BO location offer posted on latest PP YT video

    FWIW, just passing this on from a commenter "Missouri Battleflag"'s post on Chris' YT video re: "Informing Family & Friends":

    "✋Pandemic Bug Out Location. I live in a very secluded area about 20 minutes from Theodosia, Missouri and the Mark Twain National Forest. There is a small plane landing field about a mile away from my home. I am offering a location for someone like a small family to place a storage container or tiny house. I have a well, creek, and a nearby spring. You would need to provide all your own preparations, although I am looking for help to plant a large garden, fixing fence, taking care of milking goats, and chickens."

    "We would make some kind of two year lease written/notarized between us for $10k. I have a 500 gallon propane tank that could be used by whoever takes me up on this. I am wanting to replace it with a thousand gallon. I need to do a little wiring to get my generator hooked into the well. I'm also planning a miniature water tower /storage. I have three small children and my wife is expecting in June. Our home was built in 96'. It has a large shop and outbuildings with 20 acres, possibly for sale. We have million-dollar views here and wildlife with Bull Shoals lake nearby. Getting prepared to lock down and go nowhere. Missouri is Constitutional carry and Firearms friendly. We also have horses/animals. Pretty much beautiful weather year round with four seasons. 417-388-9595. ☘️☘️https://springfield.craigslist.org/bar/d/isabella-pandemic-bug-out-location/7086392357.html"'

     

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 4:13pm

    #17
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    We did it reddit!

    We did it.

    Edit: Holy smokes out of nowhere bitcoin gaps lower twice, again. Went from -30% to -32% in seconds.
    Meanwhile futures have gone deeply red again, -1%ish.

    It gapped lower to -33,85% while typing all of that! -35% on tabbing my browser HOLY SHIT

    It broke through $5500 AND $5000 WITHIN A MINUTE! it's now sub $5k!

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 4:49pm

    #18
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    RIP Crypto

    Just posting that for convenience so i don't have to type it again ^_^

    There's so much statistical gold (as well as schadenfreude) in that picture.

    After staring at it for a while though. One thing stands out more then anything else.

    Tether's 24 hour volume is HUGE! It's 74 billion vs a 5 billion market cap!

    It's damn near 40% bigger then Bitcoins 24 hour volume after a MASSIVE selloff!

    What in the world is happening to tether!

    EDIT: So i was looking at Tether because i wanted to see volume but then *this* happens. What in the actual hell!
    It's a *stable* coin with a value pegged to the USD, 1 to 1. This *shouldn't* be possible. Just look at the 2nd zoomed out chart what kind of a MASSIVE move that is!

    Ye no Tether's broken. It's increased in volume in the last 24h by $150 million (going from $73,79B to $75,29B) in 30 minutes. It's not gone down to it's 1:1 peg to the USD. Even at 1,015 it means the company who owns Tether needs to post $90 million more collateral to guarantee each Tethercoin is backed by a US dollar.

    And the problem is getting worse by the minute. I have no clue why it's doing this, but it's fascinating.

    EDITx3: I'm sorry to spam even more but this is getting weirder and weirder by the minute!

    Look at the market cap VS circulating supply! At first it was moving in lockstep with the valuation, as well it should, but now it's not!
    Volume increased with another $50 million, but, at 1.02 price with a 4,64 billion supply in circulation, that implies a $4,73B market cap! The hell did that remaining $70 mil in market cap go off to?! What in good gods name is happening to the crypto space?

    EDITx4: i refreshed, market cap jumped to $4,7B, but volume jumped.... TO $76,09 BILLION! It *jumped* $75 million. The average volume weighted over 24 hours JUMPED UP $75 million. This is absolutely insane!

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 6:14pm

    #19

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2468

    2

    Daisy Luther: When are US cities likely to begin lockdowns?

    From Daisy Luther, at The Organic Prepper.

    When are US cities likely to go into lockdown?

    We we can't know for sure (damn crystal ball got cloudy) but most western nations are on the same curve as Italy, but about 12 days behind.

    From Daisy Luther:

    "On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.

    From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business.....

    Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.
    -------------------
    If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here in the USA-- about March 19th or 20th. .... [E]arly lockdowns [would be expected to start in] cities or regions where the virus is most rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City.

    -------------------

    And if a lockdown is lifted too early, there is still enough active virus in the community and a SECOND WAVE of contagion begins hitting the people coming out of quarantine too early.

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 7:17pm

    #20
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

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    Joined: Apr 01 2013

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    Props for Chris, from David Schectman at Miles Franklin

    https://myemail.constantcontact.com/The-Virus-is-Not-the-Cause---The-Coronavirus-Just-Lit-the-Fuse-.html?soid=1101357242253&aid=Xk9p1xKwyuo

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 7:29pm

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

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    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 332

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    The wife of Canada's prime minister has tested positive

    Canada's First Lady, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, has tested positive and the prime minister is in self-isolation. She spoke at a conference in the UK a few days ago, that's likely how she picked it up.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-tests-positive-for-covid-19-pm-begins-14-day-isolation-1.4850159

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 9:06pm

    #22

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1219

    3

    Quercetin as an antiviral synergist along with Zinc?

    Today, for the third time in his excellent MedCram video series concerning the corona virus, Dr. Seheult revisited the question of whether Zinc might play an important role in rebuffing this virus;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM

    For me the picture got much more interesting today.  Dr. S had previously laid out the fact that Zinc could play a role in suppressing the ability of the virus to use your cellular machinery to replicate itself, but the challenge is how to get the Zinc into your cells in the first place.  As it turns out, for the most part, Zinc needs to be ferried into your cells via an ionophore, which is a molecule that can transport particular ions across the lipid membrane.

    While Dr. S and others have talked about the possible efficacy of the old malaria drug chloroquine as a treatment, Dr. S is now honing in on the mechanism of it's efficacy against covid-19, and it very well may be in playing the role of ionophore to Zinc.  I did some of my own research today to try to understand how these puzzle pieces fit together, but the bottom line is I bought a bunch of quercetin today at the health food store - it's derived from edible plants and it's very safe, considered a bioflavonoid.  I am adding quercetin 500mg to my Zinc 30 mg, twice daily the pair.

    Quotes from various research papers tell the story:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25050823

     

    Zinc ionophore activity of quercetin and epigallocatechin-gallate: from Hepa 1-6 cells to a liposome model.
    The ionophore activity of dietary polyphenols may underlay the raising of labile zinc levels triggered in cells by polyphenols and thus many of their biological actions.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC353050/

    Effect of Zinc Salts on Respiratory Syncytial Virus Replication
    The results of this study suggest that zinc mediates antiviral activity on RSV by altering the ability of the cell to support RSV replication.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31305906

    The Role of Zinc in Antiviral Immunity.
    This review summarizes current basic science and clinical evidence examining zinc as a direct antiviral, as well as a stimulant of antiviral immunity. An abundance of evidence has accumulated over the past 50 y to demonstrate the antiviral activity of zinc against a variety of viruses, and via numerous mechanisms.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29239069

    The antiviral role of zinc and metallothioneins in hepatitis C infection.
    Furthermore, the antiviral effect of zinc treatment against HCV in vitro was mediated through MT induction (P < .05). Our data suggest a potential benefit of using zinc as a low-cost adjunct to current HCV antiviral therapies and suggest that zinc may facilitate the antiviral role of MTs against other viruses.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4808895/

    Quercetin, Inflammation and Immunity
    Quercetin, a flavonoid found in fruits and vegetables, has unique biological properties that may improve mental/physical performance and reduce infection risk [1]. These properties form the basis for potential benefits to overall health and disease resistance, including anti-carcinogenic, anti-inflammatory, antiviral, antioxidant, and psychostimulant activities, as well as the ability to inhibit lipid peroxidation, platelet aggregation and capillary permeability, and to stimulate mitochondrial biogenesis [2].

    Here's where I think it gets really interesting as we try to connect the dots and consider the terribly high mortality rate for elderly victims of this virus;

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2854541/pdf/nihms166718.pdf

    Zinc: a new risk factor for pneumonia in the elderly?

    Is zinc a new risk factor for pneumonia in the elderly? In this Special Article we review the magnitude of the problem of pneumonia in the elderly (its prevalence, morbidity and mortality), especially in nursing home elderly; etiology of pneumonia; dysregulation of the immune system associated with age; and its implications for pneumonia in the elderly. In addition, we discuss the role of zinc in immune response, and the impact of low zinc status not only on increased morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia, but also on all-cause mortality in the elderly.

    During recent years the role of viral pathogens in the etiology of acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) in the institutionalized and non-institutionalized elderly has been increasingly described. 22 While influenza is well recognized as a cause of viral pneumonia in the aged, several studies in recent years have demonstrated the importance of parainfluenza virus (PIV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). 23-26 Marrie and colleagues attributed a viral cause to 11 of 74 patients with NHP, 27 with etiologic agents including influenza A and B, cytomegalovirus,and PIV. PIV, hMPV, and coronavirus 229E have also been reported in 33 long-term care facilities in Boston during a 3-year period.

    Got Zinc and Quercetin?  It can't hurt.  Best regards, Jim

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  • Thu, Mar 12, 2020 - 11:34pm

    #23
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    1

    That was an Excellent interview with Steen Jakobson

    Thanks guys, that interview with Steen was outstanding. Best thing I have seen on this site so far. The one thing that Chris brought up that was not answered though was the subject of ETF's and the risk those pose to the system particularly those ETF's that are effectively derivatives. I listened intently as Chris posed the question but for some reason by the time it was over the subject material had moved elsewhere and Steen never answered. Same thing with John Rubino the other day when I think he possibly misunderstood the question that was being asked or got distracted by other topics. Three times is the charm though. You will have to try again Chris with your next guest since this is something that poses a huge risk and almost nobody understands it properly. Should a large bank or ETF sponsor fail for example we might like to know what will happen to our money. Or worse, in a liquidity event I suspect its possible many of these instruments could be destroyed virtually overnight. Hopefully you will have another chance to get to this for everyone's benefit.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 4:42am

    #24

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 251

    2

    Tabarnouche!

    The panic has caught in a snap here in Quebec.

    Yesterday morning everything was calm and the coronavirus was a remote things... just a few heretics (like myself) mocked by colleagues and a few others.

    And snap! This morning many schools closed (but their logic wants that professionals must now report to the school board - meaning cramping many people in offices not designed to hold many persons); no meetings of more than 250 persons across the whole province; do not go to hospitals: call 811 before going there (the waiting time on the phone is over 1 hour to talk to someone if the call is not cut); government employees stay home (with pay) for 14 days after travel; any person who present (or think presenting) symptoms must self-quarantine and call 811.

    Between yesterday and today, the number of confirmed cases in Quebec jumped from 9 to 17. Sharp rise.

    Completed our deep pantry yesterday with 50 jars of various Indian sauces (A deal: 1.49CAD each in clearance because of badly attached labels). Should we need to hunker down for a few weeks, then better eat tasty.  😉

    And a lot of "out of stock" silver products at Kitko.

    To follow...

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 6:16am

    #25
    Wnread

    Wnread

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 23 2012

    Posts: 1

    1

    Please add back in your usual download button for those of us who live offgrid. Ta

    Awesome work as ever. I have been following you since 08 & your output is second to none.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 6:34am

    #26
    pokjbv

    pokjbv

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 09 2017

    Posts: 18

    0

    pokjbv said:

    For the novice investor, today is a day to pay attention to, it is going to be the perfect example of what experienced investors call a DEAD CAT BOUNCE!  The overnight pre market futures have been locked limit up most of the night and as the market opens it is up 1,200 points, but I doubt the market will close higher, even if it does end the day higher it is a one off in a bear market that will see equities going lower over the long-term.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:52am

    #27
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Panic buying hits netherlands

    Well like i said the Dettol's been gone for weeks now; haven't been to the store since to self isolate. So no idea how bad it is now.

    Even though it's more then 10 days after first symptom for me so i shouldn't be infective anymore, i'm not gonna go there to snap a disaster pic. Too much risk as long as i don't hear from any source how long this thing really is infective.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:01am

    #28
    Desogames

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    Extra news/info from the netherlands

    New dutch state news i'll update with whatever's important. prime minister will have a conference in 15 minutes.

    - Netherlands (finally) blocks flights from "Risk areas".
    - Schools will NOT close by order. It's left up to the schools themselves. Their main argument is that "kids have to go somewhere while their parents go to work so they cannot stay home". AKA, fuck your life, we need money.
    - As is tradition, "if the situation changes at any point we'll change at any point". So reactive, still. I've never seen the Netherlands do anything else.
    - item about panic buying: No need to panic, we have plenty of supplies, don't panic, there's no need for panic. The only people interviewed are people who say "we don't understand the panic, it's all exadurated". The narritive is clear: Stay put and die if things go bad.
    - President European commission: Stop doing all these things by yourself, the market needs to keep functioning. Work together damnit! (i thought that was her job?)
    - Efteling closes tomorrow (largest dutch themepark, mentioning it for the dutchies :D)
    press conference to follow.

    Conferance:
    - All considerations are made on basis of experts. Experts have advised the government to NOT close the schools.
    - Everybody who feels sick should stay home
    - "It's important that schools stay open so that parents can continue to work" direct quote from the prime minister.
    - Schools are supposed to act as daycare for the people who are busy such as nurses, firemen, police (so they can get infected easier i suppose)
    - "We will follow the crisis very closely" (YEAH RIGHT)
    - more bout flight ban. China (includes hong kong), South Korea, Italy and Iran banned from 6 PM (1 and 1/2 hours) lasts till march 27th because of 14 day ban rule from the EU.
    - "whatever it takes" applies to the economy only. Think he misspoke a bit. But it shows whats on his mind.
    - Very impressed how many people adjust so quickly. More PR speak.
    - "hoarding is not necessary. We currently have enough supplies in the supermarket". "there are no shortages".

    Q&A (shortened by me):
    -"Unrest on schools is very high, why do schools stay open"
    "we do this on the basis on experts, they say the schools should stay open, so that the people working have a place to put their kids".

    - "Lots of people in schools; may infect eachother, how safe is it?"
    "The chance on infection in that age group is very limited - when a kid shows symptoms he goes home, but as long thats not the case, kids can go to school".

    - "other experts in other countries decide differently"
    "countries make different decisions on this and we base our policy on our experts"

    - "So many schools ahve so many sick that shut - other continue"
    "eventually we have sensible people in the netherlands. If you have symptoms yo ugo home"

    - "how long do you think this is sustainable?"
    non-awnser. i wasn't fast enough typing

    - "why are kids allowed to group together, and parents not?"
    "every expert say that the chances kids transfer this disease and can get infected is extremely small. It is not necessary to shut schools. Shutting schools has alot of other effects on society. it's also important that the kids of people who are busy, the parents can stay at work".

    - "are you sure it's safe"
    "all experts based on all studies currently available say so"

    - "few days ago you said no handshakes, now the tone is more serious. What changed?"
    "It may very well be rules are tightened at any time. I've constantly said this. Netherlands is sick, and we will slowly increase the dosage of medicine as it is required" (thats not how any of this works).

    -"But what was the biggest change?"
    "explained it yesterday. experts advised extra measures"

    - "but shouldn't the measures been implemented yesterday implemented sooner"?
    "no when the situation changes we react" (not what he says but it comes down to that). "when it gets worse we tighten measures".

    - "You dont think the measures in hindsight wheren't enough?"
    "No." Straight no for once.

    didn't hear the question but it was about economy. Rutte says he has to "triage his agenda as well".

    Economy will suffer effects, and he repeats "whatever it takes" as far as the economy goes. This is very concerning to me by now cause he doesn't care about health as much as money. Says we can take a hit of "10% of GDP this year". Oh sweet sweet summer child. "our economy won't be damage free, but we will try to make it as damage free possible". "no economic measures announced yet, working on it".

    -"What about schiphol (national airport) and KLM (dutch airlines)"
    "effects are considerable. Airline very important for the netherlands". "are in talks".

    - "so no specific measures yet?"
    "we're looking at everything and are talking to everybody. Making analysis. Ready to help." So no specific measures

    -"can you be more clear about it?"
    "Not at this time".

    -"NOS stories, half a million followers, kids are very very worried, say they can stay at home just fine"
    -"understand that they're worried, all evidence points to very limited infections below age of 20. trying to keep society function as much as possible. If schools can't continue because of too many dropouts we understand. Thinking still of kids who can't stay at home themselves" (which honestly is ages 8 and below).

    -"but these students say we're old enough to stay at home"
    "i know it's difficult but i can't determine who is and who isn't and which parents stay home for their kids" (completely avoiding the obvious)

    Question about final exams
    "trying hard to make sure the exams continue, looking at the situation hourly, situation might change".

    -"supermarkets: hoarding, AH has shortages, you say you aren't afraid, but how long do we still have enough?"
    "branche says it's fine, but the problem is hoarding. hoarding isn't necessary. This isn't nice or social, just stop doing it".

    -"yes but how much is there?"
    "there is no shortage, we're the 2nd biggest food producer in the world (very true). So there is no shortage of food (no mentions of toiletpaper).

    Question about seniors staying home
    "can't determine it for everybody, but in this case people with preexisting conditions try and limit social contact. And for people also with a reduced resistance, avoid company and public transport".

    -"whats the criteria of the so called risk countries for which flights are stopped, whats the process"
    "Can't say for sure, can't negociate about it, at some point you have to measure things (yes he's speaking nonsense). these countries are heavily hit (mentions hong kong, has 106 cases we have 804 atm). Can't show you an exact consideration"

    -"but more countries could be added at any time?"
    "yes"

    -"isn't it better to coordinate this response at an europian level? many countries doing it's own thing. virus doesn't stick to borders"
    "fact is europe isn't one country. That cooperation means that some things are decided individually. Our healthcare system is different. Working off a pandemic template made 15 years ago (many praise from many countries appearantly). National differences, conference last friday, have been alot of talks (no action though). Germany and france took measures for their own population, we don't make protective measures, (appearantly the europian commission had to intervene in this)."

    -"Science should be the same across all countries"
    "we base our policy on our experts. That is also a national affair".

    News switched off the conference. I need a smoke. we're dead.

     

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:11am

    #29

    dcm

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    rock stars

    More than once, I've heard Steen call the finance freaks "rock stars."  Ironically, he could pass for the present day Sting....who ironically, is one of the more intelligent rock stars.

    I loved Hussman's line "a market priced for zero risk" - another insane irony

    Two great interviews

    s

     

     

     

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:14am

    #30
    Desogames

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    Ayooo

    420 erase it!

    Seriously though. Nobody likes losses but i still like to see that gold and silver move in unison. Market crashes always reveal truth and truth is, their direction is pretty similar. When liquidity is needed, they move very close together, so that means they are both liquid assets - currency, or a form of.

    As far as the losses though. I'd like to see tomorrows chart of today's silver futures volume. If it's high, somebody's driving down the price to scoop up as much as they can on the cheap (which is concerning). But if it's relatively low....

    Well that's something far more spicy 😀 Then it's not that people aren't buying. But somebody is forced to sell and everybody else is holding off buying because atleast stock markets are going up today, why'd you buy something going down right now? Do you need more pain?

    Note that this move down is completely disproportional to the rest of the markets going up. Dow's only up 2,5% or ~500 points (after dropping 2300+ the day before), dollar's up 1%, even crypto might be reeling but it's above 5000 atleast (while liquidating to sub 5000 yesterday in the matter of minutes, so it's off lows).

    It's decidedly a Meh day. So why in gods name is silver down a whopping 9%?
    Has to be liquidation. Friday margin calls and such. I think some traders are veeerrrryy spooked of this weekends news, as well they should be, and people are demanding collateral - cash only. Cause they *all* need cash.

    Because it's true; in deflationary periods, ya need cash. That's the whole definition of deflation, the currency appreciates versus real world value 😀

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:20am

    #31

    Jim H

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    You cannot get real Silver for $15

    Don't mistake what is going on.. the paper metals markets are dislocating from the real metal price..  and I hope it spells the final death of the paper BS market.

    Texas PM's is out of stock for all monster boxes save for some 2020 US, which are selling for are selling for $19.60 each.  I'll leave it to others to calculate what that represents as a, "premium".  It's not a premium, it's the price of real Silver.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:33am

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Real silver

    you can get some real silver for $17.30-18 depending on quantity.  But, you are right NOT $15 !!

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 11:15am

    #33
    ao

    ao

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    Jim, I checked with a PM dealer that I've used in the past

    No silver eagle monster boxes.  A first for them, in my experience.  No 2020 silver eagles but they do have other years.  But if someone is really looking for $15 silver, they can buy a 1000 oz. Comex silver bar for a fraction over $15.  Not your most liquid form of silver, however.  Wow, didn't realize they took silver that far down.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 11:47am

    #34
    Desogames

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    Oh i know

    Don't forget about the commission either. That premium is purely on spot alone, their commission still goes on top of that. They're not going to lower it due to high demand are you crazy?

    Also, gotta remember something else: When i turned my savings into physical, i took about €10,000 real money out of the banks. Principal.

    Since ING says they have a 14,3% Tier 1 capital (last i checked anyway), that means they levered my 10k up to 70k. And i'm sure they have because i've kept that money in the bank a very long time. That means they now have to withdraw a loan of atleast 70k to get back to their now-below-14,3% tier 1 capital.

    Obviously that's nothing to a big bank but if people keep doing that to buy actual physical assets because they think the end is really freaking nigh... It spells trouble. Especially since banks where already levered up to the hilt, again. Sure, out Dutch banks where sanitized after the crisis, but they still have German bank loans for sure, and the Germans are bust. That's what we learned in 2008 - it is all connected.

    Also remember storage! You can buy silver but where you gonna put it? In your house? Burglaries are *sure* to increase in a depression. I've got a safe sure but not one large enough where i'd put everything into. That's just not hedging your bets for an apocalypse. If my house gets broken into i don't want to lose *everything*. And i'm not going to simply "rely on the insurer" because i'm pretty sure we're going to see a few of those go bust this year.

    If you have a safety deposit box at a bank, guess what! Those are counted as part of the bank's balance sheet. So if you have one of those, better empty it NOW. Because if the bank goes bust, they're gonna count it as bank property, sell what's ever in your box and then pay you out insurance for whatever "fair value" it was priced at. If the insurer doesn't go bust themselves. And cash is good to hold *now* but that won't last forever, especially not with the Fed willing to print $1,5 trillion in repos over 2 days, and it doing nothing. Just means the next shot will be bigger. And again - if your cash is digital and they implement Capital Controls overnight; you're also screwed.

    I've got an account at a private storage company, which in their contract states that whatever is in the vault is economically and legally mine. Even if they go bankrupt, it assures me that i can just collect the contents of my vault (as long as i had paid my account in full which happens on a yearly basis) because they are still mine. They don't even know what's in there cause they never get to see inside the box.

    When on the topic of their financial health they also said "I think we'll be just fine as the Dutch banks are winding down their storage business completely and are referring all their customers to us. There's few businesses doing as well as we are". That was last December.

    Those bigass vaults are hard to build. Takes time. Are you sure you can get a box in time for storage? There's more to "safe havens" then just metal you know. I got mine on a discounted contract for life - 227 euros instead of 270+. Advantages of being early. Nobody was thinking of physical storage in December last year.... well none of the peasants anyway.

    Do you have any idea what you'll do when the water mains break down and you finally run out of bottled water that everybody else is also gunning for? I have one of these in my vault: https://www.msrgear.com/ie/water-treatment/filters-and-purifiers/guardian-purifier/02370.html

    Expensive, sure, but capable of filtering >virusses< without the use of chemicals. Family size, because i have loved ones to think of. SARS-CoV-2 is not waterborne, true. But many other bad things are. And with one of those, i can just drop it into *literally any nearby water source from puddles to the channel* and i've got fresh water for months. And if i use it in non-murky water only, the filter will last extremely long. All i need to watch out for are heavy metals and chemicals. Think a rainbarrel will do just fine.

    Y'all think that might be overreacting. But guess what? I think paying 350 worthless papers for being able to drink water in Flint, Michigan when the bottled water trucks stop coming cause they found a case at the plant and just quarantined the lot, is worth far far more. Also True; the water situation in my city is veeeeery advantageous. I'll probably never use it. But we where also probably going to be fine in a global pandemic because of our safety precautions. I'm not gonna make that mistake.

    Just like i bought it family size because i was thinking of others, think of cities like Chicago, that was already teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and then the virus+oil shock hits. Or the 35% funded Illinois pension fund that just got wiped the fuck out these last 2 weeks. Or every pension fund for that matter that lost, at the very least, 20%.

    All i'm saying is. I'm not leaving my physical needs up to chance any more. And once you get past the idea of "oh my first backup plan will work" things start costing exponentially more money.

    When i got sick i sure was happy that i didn't rely soley on plan A of "not gonna get it" and also had a shitload of drugs in my house of plan B "if i get it we'll fight it". That didn't just cost me drugs but diagnosis equipment as well, including an very instrumental pulse ox meter. Which is made in Shenzhen, by the way. The wrist blood pressure meter is from Germany. Germany has ~3,500 cases now. Both of them another 60 euros when supplies where plenty.

    So ya. For the unprepared, it's not too late yet. It's just become alot more expensive already 😀

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 12:01pm

    #35
    Desogames

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    Dutch evening news

    Time for the 8 o clock news. Millions will be watching this.

    First item:
    Quiet in the streets, but busy in the shops because of panic buying. Mostly a run on non-perishables. Still only show interviews with people who think it's silly.

    latest numbers: Total deaths 10, 804 infections (was announced earlyer)

    They're saving tests for those who only need it the most. In other words; they don't have nearly enough.

    Hospitals in the entire province (mine) have called a "code red". Non essential surgeries are cancelled, leaves are cancelled, more personel has been called for. Some numbers:

    Total ICU bed capacity: 1100 bedden
    Current occupancy Covid: 40-50
    350 other patients occupying beds currently.

    They're now discussing what happens when the system overloads. But of course, everybody still says "It MIGHT overload" or "it could POSSIBLY happen".

    Many hospitals outside my province, pretty much nationally are already giving off the same warning in preperation. There is 1 higher warning; code black, which means triage of those who should and shouldn't recieve care.

    Church/Mosque services practically cancelled, supermarkets see a triple increase in customers since yesterday afternoon. Another old person who "hasn't been hoarding". One guy "why not you never know". It's typical of the dutch state news to interview the opinions of the narrative they want to project. If they only interview people that say "it's all nonsense" then they wanna project that it's all nonsense. Yes, it's that on the nose.

    News item about schools staying open. Much confusion, fear amongst the populace. Reason is confirmed again: The idea is to keep kids in school so that the nurses/firemen/whatever can continue to work and aren't stuck at home to take care of the kids.

    Cabinet continues their stance based on advice of the "experts" of the RIVM. Says children are far less susceptible to this then the regular flu, so there's no need to close schools. Transfer rate is far far lower. He won't say they can't get it, but that the chance is incredibly low. Again emphasis on looking at the situation from day to day.

    Item on the closure of schools in Belgium from Monday onwards. "everybody who says they really can't take care of the kids is still allowed to put their kids in school because they have many kids and have to both work". Daycare *can* stay open.

    Item on working from home. About how some jobs can and can't work from home. Typical dutch state news. Disaster - Disaster - Some bloke in the east who's collected 10,000 teacups over 25 years or something else whimsical.

    Stray observation: NOT A SINGLE PERSON DEPICTED ON THE NEWS WEARS A FACEMASK. Not the people interviewed, not the people presenting, not the Prime Minister himself.

    Nothing of interest in the quick fire segment. Now an item about 5 million Venuzuelan refugees and brazillian refugee camps. Human interest story. Quite shameful actually who those people have been forgotten BUT OH NO there's 30k Syrians at the Greek border. That's a problem too, sure, but it would be nice to give atleast a shout out once in a while, by everybody.... Appearantly they get papers and a job in Brazil quite quickly.

    Last item about revealing the new 100 Kph signs. Been a debate for ages whether to have the maximum speed limit on 100, 120 or 130. They change it every so often, now they nuked it back down to 100 to reduce traffic jams. Of course it's because of the "nitrogen crisis" which is the next "co2 crisis" because they actually started reducing CO2.

    Aaand then the weather. It's shit. Can predict that on any day and be right 90% of the time.

    Oh next item: The Coronavirus: Facts and Fiction. I'm not making that up. I'll translate that in the next post 😀
    It'll be interesting to see what they will say.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 12:49pm

    #36
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Facts and Fiction: Dutch Edition.

    It gon' be good. Especially since the host, isn't wearing a face mask. Cause setting an example is way way way too hard for these people who only follow the rules.

    "What should and shouldn't we be worried about." Followed by a nice dramatic intro. Juxtaposition is not a word they have ever heard about. Drums, trumpet solo. The works.

    A short history - 2 weeks ago it wasn't a problem, now 10 people are dead and 800 infected. Introduction of the panel; virologist from Utrecht UMC.

    "Higher chance of catching it in Noord Brabant, tested many people, but many people are still carrying normal diseases".

    - "what if i don't have symptoms, can i infect somebody?"
    "Well in general the sicker you are the more virulent you are. If you're not showing symptoms you're not spreading it as much" Not a No, not a Yes on asymptomatic spread.

    -"grandparends in the 70, should we visit our grandkids?"
    "well if somebody has a runny nose it's not sensible but otherwise not a problem".

    -"can i still go to gym/yoga" "can i still have a house party".
    no awnser. No i'm serious, they asked the questions, didn't answer, showed 2 weird fake news messages from social media like "hold your breath for 10 seconds" and just fucking bailed on the entire question.

    More on fake news. "sad that the social media works this way" from the guy who's tasked with combatting infection for the entirety of the netherlands. Introducing itself and what he's been doing the last week.

    asked the experts: Can i still go to a swimming pool or sauna?
    "no additional risk". "If we just follow advice of staying home once we get a runny nose or a fever, no area's really a risk area" << direct quote.

    - "Who falls under the weaker risk group?"
    "People with underlying conditions". "Of course a 70 year old who still runs marathons isn't part of the risk group". another direct quote by the virologist from the UMC Utrecht.

    Missed the question, but in his monologue the GGD guy says "The housewarming party of 25 people can just continue as normal as long as you ask your friends with a runny nose to stay home". Another direct quote. Keeps pointing towards policy: If you feel bad just stay at home.

    On the question of events larger then 100 people stopping, many events are cancelling themselves before even asked out of precautions. Luckily a large part of the populace is still sensible it's just these incompetent idiots.

    "When are we going to see the effects of this?"
    "the period to 30th of march is no coincidence, it has to do with the incubation time of this disease. The measures we took today won't show up in the numbers for another 1-2 weeks because of the time lag of infections".

    Question on flying "as long as the sick people stay at home flying is not a problem". I'm not making this up that's another direct quote from the guy in charge of fighting the infection in the entirety of the Netherlands.

    Explanation on spreading: Sick person generally infects 2 other people. Infections happen via droplets directly via coughing or via hand transfer. Older people are more at risk for infection because their immune system is less effective. The chance of getting corona virus via money is very small.

    -"how long does the virus live on surfaces?"
    "don't leave mucus anywhere, but the virus won't live out of itself on surfaces". Full answer to the question, another quote.

    Mayer of eindhoven, coordinater safety in norther brabant.

    "last few days have been very busy, lots of unrest"."broad palet of feelings you experience every day".

    -'How big are your worries about noord brabant? do you have a grip on the situation?"
    "Talks to other safety guys in the region. Base themselves on advice from the RIVM. Access to a whole scala (range) of people who know things. Already some loss of personnel in hospitals. Big issue".

    more on open schools, - "How does your city deal with the open schools?"
    References a letter by the government about schools staying open. Tech university of Eindhoven goes completely online next week. Mentioned again that kids are less susceptible, that closing schools uproots society and lots of people can't work and stay home with the kids.

    Lots of questions from viewers about children transferring the virus.

    -"can kids spread the virus easily?"
    "kids become less sick in general so they cough less and they spread it less in general. It's not that they can't get it, but they get less sick, they cough less, so they are less infectious." Another quote.

    Shows the press conference again from earlier today by the Prime Minister. As long as children aren't sick, chance of infection is low.

    "we have to realise the corona virus is barely present so the chance kids have it is small, important thing if we all keep to the rule that if we keep children home when they're sick, the chance is even lower then 0,1%. If schools close now, then when do schools open again, when is it right to open the schools again when there's still cases?" Not a direct quote.

    Doesn't think teachers are 2nd rate citizens, thinks they are most important to take care of the kids while mommy and daddy all work in healthcare. Compares it to having the measels "when my kids showed up with the measels they where also sent home because it's normal to send sick kids home. No need to worry".

    -"schools in belgium close too also based on science, why isn't that the same?"
    "the emotion is very hard to control what the public wants and what the scientists say"."Balance between what the people what and what is acceptable to society to keep it running".

    "If we take rigorous measures now that amount to nothing, we won't be able to keep this up. We have to keep things in proportions that is very important" direct quote from UMC virologist.

    Presenter asks another question about open schools, virologists remarks "It's really deep in your mind isn't it the schools not closing?" Presentor: "well we got alot of questions about this people are worried".

    Said it's fine for italy to closes it's schools because the risk is higher there. Alot about watching things in perspective.

    -"stricter rules in the future for Noord Brabant, are you already working on that?"
    "lots of talk about what should or shouldn't happen when, looking at the situation, a few pain points, researching those together, wanna be secure and accurate, work together". LOL after all of that nonsense the guy from the GGD says "Clear." as in crystal 😀

    "health concerns are in front, looking at all measures possible, and when we think it's necessary to do something, we talk to the GGD and RIVM and THEN we chance because we in brabant won't overrule the national rules".

    Item now about the 1150 ICU beds (sorry i was off by 50). 10% of patients have severe respiratory problems. Protective measures are mentioned, shortages are already happening, hospitals with shortages are already "being ressupplied by hospitals nearby". So that's already happening.

    Guy from the NL guild for Intensive care. 40-50 patients in brabant in the ICU with corona. Mention of a hospital that has 6 beds but suddenly got 9 cases, those where spread over other hospitals.

    Talk about how there's higher pressure on the ICU in the winter, 35% of occupancy comes out of surgeries. Heart center in brabant (that'll be one of the two hospitals in my city because thats well known) has 8 people in it's ICU (42 capacity total in my city).

    Week ago 8 in brabant, now 150. Are you worried?
    "we know the number is going up, we're learning alot from brabant and this is helping the northern hospitals".

    Asking about a hospital that's already overwhelmed, "we are no where breaking point, small hospital which just got a cluster, but that doesn't mean we are not in control". Bullshit.

    Mayor keeps saying he'll let the experts advise him. My fellow Dutchies don't forget this. They're using it as a shield already.

    More questions about When are you a risk patient or not from viewers. especially people with astma as well as smokers. Strong indications the smokers are more succeptible. 1 question about possible emergency hospitals such as in China.

    Aaaaaand theres the tweet comparing this to the Flu.

    -"how are you looking at this with the knowledge of now" UMC virolist
    "well 10 deaths is sad of course but it's not yet a problem. As long as the spread is slow, there won't be a problem with hospital capacity. Upscaling capacity currently." This while nobody there is wearing a mask. "When people don't stick to the rules, we will have a problem" WELL you naive bitch we will have a problem then i can guarrantee it.

    "COPD and Astma definitely are part of the risk groups".

    - "smokers"
    "smokers have a worse "cough up function" and those lungs are taking damage so yes". No mention of ACE2.

    -"if i get an operation in the short term do i need to pospone that?"
    "Depends on where the hospital is. It's busy now in Brabant, in Rotterdam there's 0 cases anywhere, there's 4 cases in the ICU but they're excess from Brabant so it's perfectly safe".

    question about emergency hospitals answered by the mayor. Non awnser. If people keep to the rules, follow the rules, we won't need emergency hospitals.

    Sanctions mentioned if people break the rules, mayor immediately goes "noooo we don't do that here regardless".

    Talk about the militairy emergency hospital in Utrecht. Talk about "people having a bond with their specialist" No moving patients who are sick in a hospital to an emergency hospital BUT THAT WASNT THE QUESTION. Dodged again.

    -"suppose a hospital has to triage like italy, how close are we to that point?"
    "We are completely in control. We are not upscaling, not even in brabant. When we go into the scale up phase we add 20%, and only after that phase we will enter a crisis. We are expecting more patients soon, the actions the government announced yesterday won't show up for 2 weeks, because then, in 2 weeks, we can see if we can prevent the crisis". NO JOKE they're planning these measures will be enough for 2 weeks.

    Luckily for once the presentor doesn't let go easily for once.
    The guy who JUST SAID THE ABOVE now says that he is, and i quote, "No expert on exponential growth or curves".
    Same guy then says "i have the upmost faith that we are in complete control and can prevent a situation like italy"

    -"Are we ever going to get rid of this virus?"
    Virologist: No. Straight up answer. Talk over a vaccine being far away, but this will be with us forever.

    Pictures of hoarding. Mention that Tilburg (my city) is out of toilet paper. WHO'S CRAZY NOW BITCHES HAHAHAHA.

    Question of a worker: Problem with lungs, but his employer wants him to show up to work. Can his employer force him to work?
    "The point of view is that employers have to hold themselves to the RIVM guidelines, so since the guy has weak longs, he should be allowed to work from home". Lawyer says, employers have to atleast hold themselves to the guidelines of the RIVM, legally speaking too.

    Workers aren't allowed by themselves to determine for themselves without communication "i'm staying home because i think it's too dangerous" while there's nothing wrong with them. According to the lawyer.

    Question: Can i cancel my flight ticket out of fear?
    answer: No fear is not a valid reason for cancellation, so you can cancel, but you will not be refunded the price of your ticket.

    Questions if you can't fly to another country cause it was blocked (probably because of Trumps decision). Awnser: It's a weird position because the plane "can" fly to the US, but the people aren't allowed in the country. They say it's a weird situation. "We have never seen what happens when you can travel, but you cannot get into the country, we've never seen that before". So no relief on cancelled tickets right now or in the near future.

    Questions about scammers; answer: Caveat Empor. Not that it's any less illegal then normal but no special measures taken against it.

    Question about self-employed people who're seeing their jobs vanish. Any safety nets?
    A: Depends on your contract. If it's in there you're good otherwise no. If you have a force majeure clause you can probably invoke it, but if nothing was agreed upon, you have a right to nothing.

    -'if schools close anyway, and you still have to go to work, what are your options to your employer?"
    "principle of no work no way, but are also social, and if the schools close can you invoke care-leave. we aren't sure about this". In short; no relief for the working people. They're expected to continue work.

    "Extraordinary circumstances" are a clause and the government has already designated Covid as a extraordinary circumstance. So at least that's triggered.

    "work-time reduction works upto 24 weeks, and after that people will get fired, corona virus or no." Well that's current rules so plenty of time for that one.

    Questions about packages out China "normally already have to wait long, now you just have to wait a little longer, and if it's not good you can always ship it back when you have it". "we just heard the virus can't exist very long so it can't exist on the package either" (they not once mentioned  a timeframe of how long it actually lives)."if the virus could be mailed to people we'd already see many more infections all over the world". Ya don't know if ya don't test. Besides, hard to spread when nobody recieves a package.

    More berating people to wash their goddamn hands.

    Questions about what can you do as a volunteer. Red cross activates its volunteer network tomorrow (Ready2Help).
    more attention to vulnerable groups, do shopping for them, put up posters (that's it).

    Alright it's done! phew! Sorry for the shortening of questions but i'm no professional translator and they talk very rapidly at times 😀 As last time if it's a quote i say so.

    Hope y'all appreciate it because that took alot out of me. Still recovering after all while i just spent 1 and 1/2 hours translating 😀 Think i've earned another bag of caramels.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 6:42pm

    #37
    Peter Smith

    Peter Smith

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 28 2009

    Posts: 27

    0

    virus

    Hopefully italy has a more aggressive strain and other countries will not follow the same trajectory

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:48pm

    CrLaan

    CrLaan

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 05 2010

    Posts: 32

    0

    CrLaan said:

    Virologist Marc G. Wathelet Continues to Encourage Belgium Government to Take Necessary Steps to Control the Virus


    https://youtu.be/isCq2CPi7Dk Partly English interview Wathelet

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