work in progress: BTC & ETH reversal assessment

  • Mon, Sep 11, 2017 - 04:39am

    #3

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Online)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3132

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    work in progress: BTC & ETH reversal assessment

Here is a new study I've been working on – a more generic version of the candle code that is trained up on both equity and commodity weekly historical data.  Red dots indicate "sell", blue dots indicate "buy".  The intensity of the color represents the percentage chance the code assigns to the reversal.

For bitcoin, it doesn't show very many buy triggers, but the sell trigger back in may/june (75%) definitely worked out.  This week's sell trigger has a 71% rating.  This code is just useful for noticing when the upside momentum runs out rather than being a complete trading system.

The weekly reversal chart for ETH looks a lot worse than for bitcoin.  Strictly from using my Mk 1 eyeball, the chart pattern looks like a double top, and this week's candle pattern is a swing high/confirmed shooting star.  Those are typically bad news.  The reversal code rates this as a 98% chance of a reversal.  Ouch.  As with BTC, the reversal code appears to be better at detecting tops than bottoms for ETH.