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Wash cycle was much reduced

  • Sun, Apr 17, 2016 - 07:51pm

    #5

    Mark Cochrane

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 1189

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    Wash cycle was much reduced

Thanks for that.

The main difference that I see is that the Wash-Rinse-Repeat cycle for Silver changed state in 2012 and only became severe and prominent after 2013. For gold the state change was in 2013. If we are truly in an uptrend state again, which looks increasingly evident, then for Silver commercials they will rarely drop below 40 and noncommercials wont go below 30 until the trend changes again. For Gold commercials they will rarely drop below 200 and noncommercials will stay above 150. Very different than the last few years.

I am not sure that tells anyone much about price but it would seem to confirm trend if the COT stays above those levels for much longer. You guys are the gurus on this stuff but my read is that a macroview shows two states, up or down trend. A numerical analysis would be needed to get the high frequency connection to weekly price changes. By eye, they do not look markedly different during either up or down trends.

Perhaps I am being naive or this is bloody obvious to everyone but I had not noticed it before seeing this.

By the way, what is going on with Open Interest in silver? It's been ramping since 2009 and heavily since 2012.