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Trading

  • Wed, May 10, 2017 - 03:31pm

    #18
    MJB

    MJB

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 05 2016

    Posts: 117

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    Trading

Dave,

There is a difference.. I do see BTC as a store of value, long term investment. Using this strategy $1,700/BTC is a great entry point.

Short term and more to your trading question I think BTC still has some legs. Buy here and sell at $2K. I will give it one month and a $300 profit on $1,700 investment is 15% return. Do I think there will be lower entry points for BTC in USD terms? Yes. A pullback to $1,400 (18% drop) is not out of the question in the next 2 months. I do not think we will see it trading under 1K for any long term period. May be able to scoop some up if you have an order in and you are one of the lucky ones that gets filled. 

Reading the above, the upside potential isn't worth the downside risk for the next 2 months. At least for traders and IMHO.

I do not know your time value of money though, you look at many more assets to trade than I do (I'm fairly confident in this). I feel that BTC and alt coin trading is safe, especially in the long term. Each day I get more and more comfortable with it. Again this is just me.

Look for some of the other alt coins to take off much faster than BTC. ETH is a good example and not much more risk factor.

Lastly to be clear, I am personally not buying BTC here. The last conversion from fiat USD to crytpo I made was on May 2nd and it was for ETH @ $79.04. My trading activity currently revolves around BTC/ALT and ALT/BTC ratios. I have no intention to convert back to fiat as I am comfortable losing what I put in if they go to 0.00. I measure my success in increasing my overall BTC or BTC equilivant holdings.

 

TechGuy, Man that is awesome! I really hope to follow you in creating a homestead one day. I guess the difference for me is that my family lives in rural America. We own almost 400 acres even though we don't live on it. We are very lucky that the farm is about 5 miles from the Mississippi river and we have a spring fed creek that runs year round. We have good neighbors who have cattle and the trees are loaded with squirrels if it gets too bad (I have A LOT of .22 ammo because I'm not the greatest shot 🙂 We have seed banks as well even though we don't currently garden. My wife and I do have lots and lots of other dry-bulk food. We leave the gardening to my Grandfather and one of my best friends. All summer long I will be eating fresh garden fruit! We are into storing some of it for the winter as well. We also have many fishing holes stocked with bass and bluegill. We are in agreement that a "hold on for dear life" moment is upon us, but I don't think it will last forever. It can't, otherwise kiss humanity goodbye and that's not something I'm interested in preparing for, nor would I even know how. When it comes time to 'hunker down' for a few months I think we will be better than most.

For me, I'm not quite there… yet. I am fortunate enough financially that I am even able to invest in crypto currencies and precious metals. I think when the debt bubble blows people with real assets (not junk like many hoarders have) will come out ok. I think several of these real assets will rise in relation to others. A scenario I often think about is that in today's world it would cost somewhere in the vicinity of 200oz for gold or 12,000oz of silver to build a nice home in my area from scratch. It currently cost anywhere from 2-10oz of gold or 150-750oz  for an acre of land in my area. These are the important ratios I watch. In the new world after the debt blows up I think these ratios will change and I think they will be much lower. Just for the record I think cryptos have a role to play in this as well. 

For now this is fantasy land, I am fortunate that I am fairly young and have time to wait. I feel sorry for the people with the same mindset as me, who have shaped my way of thinking as to what real money is, who have been waiting since the 70's before I was even a thought. I am happy to go back to these people and show them BTC and block chain technology now! 

Cheers!

Michael