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Temperature is still what thermometers measure.

  • Mon, Aug 05, 2013 - 05:39pm

    #1558

    Stan Robertson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 07 2008

    Posts: 516

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    Temperature is still what thermometers measure.

[quote=sofistek]

Stan,

I know you realise that the planet, as a whole, has continued to warm, despite the slowdown in surface warming, so why, oh why, do you keep repeating the falsehood: "While I believe that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are contributing to a general rise the mean temperature of the planet, it seems to have stopped for a while."? . . .

Remember what that Scientific American article said:

If global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next century, the rate will be about 10 times faster than what's been seen before, said Christopher Field, one of the scientists on the study. Keeping the temperature increase that small will require aggressive mitigation, he said.

Tony

[/quote]

Tony,

Let me begin by saying that my sentence, that you placed in italics, is the absolute truth, even without the qualifying "I believe".  Temperature is what we measure with thermometers. On a global average, temperature has stopped increasing for at least the last decade. That has been acknowledged by nearly all of the prominent climate scientists that the alarmists love most; e.g., see statements about it by Phil Jones, Kevin Trenberth, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen, et al.

I get rather tired of you saying that I spread falsehoods when you repeat BS such as that quote from Sci Am. The person who made that statement is either lying or is only referring to the times since humans recorded temperatures measured with thermometers, because there have been higher temperatures and higher rates of warming within the last two millennia. Further, there is no way of knowing that agressive mitigation measures will either be required or be effective.

For you to maintain that warming continues even though surface and lower troposphere temperatures are not increasing, you must have an expansive definition of "warming". If I understand correctly, your "warming" consists of excess heat that is still being accumulated somewhere, presumably in the ocean depths. But this is not a simple process in which heat magically passes through the upper ocean without other effect and then takes up residence in the depths. Since the atmosphere has such small heat capacity compared to the oceans, it cannot transfer significant amounts of heat to them. The way heat gets into the oceans is by absorption of solar radiation, mostly in the first hundred meters. To get heat into greater ocean depths, the upper hundred meters of the oceans must first take in the heat, which would normally raise its temperature. But since the mean temperature is not rising, that is not the only thing that is happening.

What I think is going on is that the oceans are going into a cool phase in which a larger than average amount of cooler water is upwelling and taking in enough excess heat to keep the average temperature  fairly constant near the surface. The upwelling water is replaced at depth by downwelling water that does take heat down with it. That is how the temperatures of the ocean depths have increased by a few hundredths of a degree in the last 60 years. But once the heat gets below the thermocline (~ 700 meters at most) where the temperature is near freezing, it will not be coming back to bite us anytime soon. The reason is that there are so few places on earth that could be warmed by waters at near freezing temperatures.

Since your alarming climate models do not encompass what is going on now, I don't believe that they can be trusted to tell us what will happen in the future. Wake me up when you have a good "atmosphere plus ocean general circulation model".

Stan