Secession Low Probability
There is very low probability of any secession. A state would have to do that – indiviuals can not – and things would have to get a whole lot worse before any state would do such a thing as it would probably trigger another civil war. Obama would never stand for that and would bring in the military to stop it.
However, the next best thing are the state referendums asserting their constitutional rights. This is a very big deal. It goes against everything the statists believe in. They believe they are masterminds doing the good work of building a massive central authoritative government ruling over the stupid people because they are unable to think clearly or function properly – and the masterminds know so much better how things should be. States asserting their constitutional rights will be seen with a dim view indeed. At this point they have not said a word in public but I am sure there is a lot of secret activity behind the scenes on this issue. The US Supreme Court as it is currently staffed is risky for them because it just might generate a 5 to 4 decision against them and thus destroy everything they stand for. Too risky. They would need to replace one of the 5 with a liberal activist statist type before they would allow it to go to the supreme court.
If I had to guess I would say first they will try extortion – we will not give you your medicaid funds, education funds, and/or highway funds etc. unless you back off your position. If the states don’t back off, he will not be able to get it past the House of Rep so Obama will claim he has the authority to write an executive order denying them the funds. When the state(s) go to court to dispute that authority under the constitution the crisis will begin. I have no idea what would happen. It should be really interesting.