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Re: world energy for all?

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  • Fri, Feb 26, 2010 - 05:41pm

    #23
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: world energy for all?

Mike,  Can we have a conversation?  I am listening to you and I am not dismissing the 3Es.  Neither I think is AG.  (pardon me for speaking for you if I am incorrect)  

I for one fully understand the entire issue of infrastructure in the oil industry.   It is a field with which I am  extraordinarily close.  But, I add this perspective:  When my husband and I began to date 13 years ago,  I did not have a cell phone.    Cell phones were still a status symbol.  It was a big deal to wear one on your hip.  It was only a few years earlier that we had one cell phone in our firm and it was larger than the laptop I am writing this on.  In less than 20 years we have gone from car phones to everyone carrying a cell phone with more ability than my desktop computer had back then.   It was fast,  and it was so incremental that we barely noticed the incredible impact it has had on our society.  The infrastructure went up was multiplied and upgraded repeatedly during that 20 years.    

Oil’s days are numbered,  but it will not vanish overnight.  There are 8 refineries for sale in Europe right now.  8!  With no buyers.  The infrastructure that supports oil is already downsizing,  just like car phone installation firms went out of business.  Now many people are not even bothering with land lines at home.  The original Ma Bell is no more.  Major social upheaval happens all of the time,  but it is so close to us it is like watching a plant grow,  you do not see it right away.  

The shifts have already started.  Many more homes have solar panels than did even ten years ago.  Most traffic cameras and many traffic lights are now solar.   There are wind farms nearby and more will be built.  Yes, it takes fossil fuels to create these.  And many believe that there is not enough fuel left to create a new infrastructure that can replace what we have.  I think it will happen so incrementally the change will only seem huge in retrospect.    My college students have never known a world without cell phones.  Most have never seen a vinyl album.  This is their world.