Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?
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The question is not just if, but how. I would guess that DOD would want to bomb them heavily at the start. That would include all the purported nuclear threat sites and probably a lot of infrastructure that arguably supports it. Along with that would be infrastructure that doesn’t support it directly, such a water treatment plants, sewage plants, bridges, ports, military sites, etc. That would be a strategy to inflict enough damage so that it would not be possible for them to recover in the near term whether or not they can export oil and gas. It’s not necessary to put boots on the ground to make Iran a very unpleasant place. The next question is how this would fly with China, India, and Russia, not to mention all the other neighbors and friends of Iran. Iran might just be the instance of overreaching that puts the American Empire into a tailspin. There’s already talk of making the US$ into a shunned currency. All the billions of Fed money (debt) comming into circulation has already PO’ed enough nations to make them want to retalliate. That money is heading for emerging markets where the returns are greater than they would be here in the US. When the Fed talks about helping the economy, what they mean is helping banksters. Bombing Iran might be the straw that causes some emerging markets to set up barriers to US$. I doubt China’s currency would face such impediments.
Another question is whether or not Obama would pull the trigger. Considering he’s a creature of the Fed, I believe he would. His justification would be quite eloquent. And bipartisan.