Re: Odds of US attacking Iran within the next 24 months?
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I agree there is a 95% chance of Iran being attacked, but I would put a 90% chance that Israel will do it for us. We are or have made much larger bunker busting bombs to use on these deep facilities. There really is no choice left if you want Iran not to have the Bomb.
95% chance in what time frame ew? I ask because there were a bunch of folks who were absolutely certain that Iran would be attacked before the elections. I might have missed it, but I’m pretty sure Iran was not attacked today. And if Israel attacks, that makes it a 0% chance that the US did it.
Come to think of it, we should probably amend the thread title to 20 months now?
Tempest in a teapot – an Iranian bomb without a delivery system capable of exoatmospheric flight over intercontinental ranges is just a big gravity weapon or big boom arty round. It might suck to be in the neighborhood, but Iran having “The Bomb” is no threat to US sovereignty. Not to mention that any system they choose to employ “The Bomb” on isn’t survivable so it has very little deterrent effect. At least no deterrent effect if you adhere to the Rand Stability Model or various stability models run by the Brookings Institute. Or if you stack their “Bomb” up against USS LOUISIANA, USS NEBRASKA, USS PENNSYLVANIA, etc., etc., etc.