Re: Flu Scare as Dry Run for SHTF?
[quote]I think it makes some very good points, particularly regarding the apparently higher morbidity and mortality in Mexico. In essence, the article postulates that there may be many more cases in Mexico than we currently know or even suspect, and that with more infected (even those whose disease hasn’t been confirmed, or who might never have even become very ill), a certain proportion would have become very ill and some even succumb to the disease. In the U.S. and elsewhere, we simply haven’t (yet) seen many cases, so we expect not to see as many ill or die.[/quote]
Yeah I’ve been thinking this, that the known flu infections in Mexico are the tip of the iceberg. I think a lot of peoples concerns aren’t really about the flu, my initial concern was that there were (at that time) 1500 infected and about 100 "confirmed" deaths which is a pretty high mortality rate. Currently the "confirmed" deaths has fallen to just 7 and the number infected has risen to 2000. Once the US had 20+ infections I was waiting for the first US death and it didn’t appear and still hasn’t. My suspicion is that you have a much larger number of infectee’s in Mexico perhaps 2-3 orders of magnitude larger. Which makes the fatality percentage fall by 2-3 orders of magnitude.
I’ve often wondered anyway, why a global pandemic of a killer virus is such a huge fear in the international communities mind, I know this sounds a little weird, but it seems to me that virulence (in the form of killing the host) and infection rate, are kind of at opposite ends of the viral survival spectrum, i.e. if you kill the host, then you can’t infect others. At the end of the day, a successful virus is a virus that can communicate to every available host, which in reality means not killing the host (since dead hosts can’t reproduce at a cellular level, the virus also dies, and dead hosts don’t walk around infecting others). This is just my mental meandering, I’m probably wrong.
Apparently there are 6 suspected cases now here in Washingnton… 3 in Seattle, 2 in Snohomish County and 1 in Spokane none of the Seattle cases have travelled recently, there’s no comment about the Snohomish cases or the Spokane case.