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  • Thu, Jun 09, 2011 - 06:35am



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Sadly,  700 million barrels is less than 100 days worth of oil imports.  I am active in the ND fields(Bakken range) and we have hopes. But, realistically, even if we can get to 1 million barrels per day production, this only replaces about 15% or less of oil imports.  Well less than 10% of total  US consumption.  Peak oil is a term which implies cheaply recoverable crude.  Our crude costs at least $40 / barrel to get out of the ground  and we aren’t going to sell it at COST!  YES, the cheap oil is DONE.  We have skyrocketed past cheap, peak, oil.  Get used to paying real money at the pump, or stop using fuel.

When Saudi pumps the last of their cheap oil, they will be pumping heavy crude which needs a lot of steam for extraction.  This may also cost $30-$40/barrel to extract.  Worse yet, it is heavy crude, and has very low percentage of light fractions,  ie diesel/gasoline etc.  Saudi heavy crude has half the useable light fraction of ND oil.  YES, cheap gas is DONE.  If oil can stay at over $100 per barrel there will be more economically feasible resources found.   But remember,  that ain’t 25cent a gallon gas!  It will be $6/gallon.

PS  Japan will be in the hydrocarbon market soon(nuclear related issues), in a big way, and along with continued Chinese purchasing pressure on World oil supplies  $6/gallon gas may seem a bargain in a few years.  I am old enough to remember the 1973 oil/gasoline rationing we had here in the USA.