Game Changer or ???
Date Debt Held by the Public Intragovernmental Holdings Total Public Debt Outstanding 10/15/2013 11,926,495,975,191.95 4,820,874,558,898.67 16,747,370,534,090.62 10/16/2013 11,929,976,600,223.38 4,817,383,948,833.85 16,747,360,549,057.23 10/17/2013 12,117,282,743,815.33 4,958,307,364,148.24 17,075,590,107,963.57
Here is the last 3 days of total Treasury debt. Notice that the advertised debt increased $328B in one day. The total debt has been hovering around $16.7T since about the middle of March. It was being reported as it was because of Treasury shenanigans. Now, we have a huge increase on the official books and a change to debt ceiling methodology. Instead of setting a dollar limit, they've switched to a date limit.
HFTs have all kinds of computer horsepower to read and analyze web data. Before you or I could open a site to read that the corn crop was over/under estimated, the machines have already priced the effects and bid accordingly. They do this in all markets. It hardly seems fair. It is what it is.
So, is the just acknowledged debt or the new debt limit methodology game changers? Is this just noise about noise? We'll know in the not-too-distant future. I'm not reading too much in the spike. It could be a change in the tide, but it could also be just a pop.
PS – Thanks for posting your thoughts in these commentaries. I appreciate being able to read and think about them.