Excess Deaths – CDC site
Thanks for providing that link. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) I just started playing around the site and haven’t read all the technical notes yet; however, the methodology is making more sense to me. For instance, it didn’t make sense that for the vast majority of time, the yellow line (expected deaths) was considerably above the actual reported deaths. Now I see that it is the 95% CI upper band of predicted values; therefore, any excess deaths would fit the 95% confidence of being “excess.”
There are still shenanigans that can be hidden in the statistics and calculations. How many lives does mask-wearing actually save? Change the weighting or estimation and the yellow line can change significantly. Are the bureaucrats at CDC being honest and forthright … or are they pleasing supervisors up the chain of command who have vested interests to shade the data?
I have more faith in the actual reported death data (which CDC admits still isn’t completely accurate) than their estimation of death cause (which is based on coded information from doctors/hospitals/authorities who may have significant financial interest in misrepresenting the cause.)
There is lots to explore on that site. Time to dive down another rabbit hole. 😉