Investing in precious metals 101

EIA crude projections

  • Mon, Jun 02, 2014 - 09:48am

    #4

    davefairtex

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    EIA crude projections

Read the executive summary of the latest EIA Annual Energy Outlook (dated May 7) and noticed this fun chart, which is the EIA's best guess at what 3 different outcomes of US crude production might look like going forward 30 years.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfm?src=Petroleum-b1

Note we should start to get a better handle on which case we're going to see sometime around 2017, but that the "reference case" suggests a US production peak in 2020 with a drop-off through 2040.

And this is the EIA.  Even they don't see "oil independence" except in the "high oil & gas resource case."  Given their record for overly optimistic projections of oil production, one might be more focused on that reference case, or even the low oil & gas resource case.

Shale has been a nice boon, but it won't last.  Even the EIA sees this as the likely outcome.