EIA crude projections
Read the executive summary of the latest EIA Annual Energy Outlook (dated May 7) and noticed this fun chart, which is the EIA's best guess at what 3 different outcomes of US crude production might look like going forward 30 years.
Note we should start to get a better handle on which case we're going to see sometime around 2017, but that the "reference case" suggests a US production peak in 2020 with a drop-off through 2040.
And this is the EIA. Even they don't see "oil independence" except in the "high oil & gas resource case." Given their record for overly optimistic projections of oil production, one might be more focused on that reference case, or even the low oil & gas resource case.
Shale has been a nice boon, but it won't last. Even the EIA sees this as the likely outcome.