deleveraging gold

  • Mon, Feb 22, 2016 - 05:43am

    #13

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3150

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    deleveraging gold

Mark-

Yeah, that dropping gold price is the "2008 replay" scenario.  That would be true for most commodities that are traded on a futures exchange, at least theoretically.  Glencore, DB, and/or other banks in trouble are potential candidates for causing this to happen.

In looking back at the charts, there were two distinct cycles of falling gold prices, once when the wave of commodity prices peaked in July 2008, and another that seemed to start in early October that led to a $200 drop in gold prices in just 10 trading days.  The deleveraging period was this second phase, I believe.

Gold actually spiked higher on the Lehman bankruptcy – from 750 to 900.  In looking back, I'm not exactly sure there was a specific driver for the October sell-off in gold.  Certainly everything else was selling off at the same time, and it did appear that gold bottomed long before most other things.  My guess: a whole bunch of banks were in deep doo doo at the time, so they were all selling whatever they could to raise cash.

Here's a pretty good timeline for the 2008 crisis: http://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Chronology_Economic_Financial_Crisis.pdf