I'm curious on the communities thoughts on Warren Buffett's US stock market comments. I've linked the article below, but here's a summary. A metric Buffett communicated in 2001 to re-enter US stocks is when the market value is 70% - 80% of US GNP. It was recently around 75%, so the article is about right now fitting his metric.
What problems do you see with using this metric in the near/middle/long-term investing horizons? The US market has rebounded out of recession many times. And as CM says in the CC, be concerned when people tell you "this time is different." Well, couldn't certain people say that same thing about the CC community? Essentially what we are saying is that when it comes to "market rebound options," such as monetary stimulus, interest rates, etc., that this time is different. We are saying the usual market-propping levers are all used up and any rebound is simply a temporary phenomenon, or is going to be countered by devaluation making gains a mirage, among other variables.
Interested in your thoughts.
Stu
Link: http://tinyurl.com/dc6ulz
Links:
[1] https://www.peakprosperity.com/forums/chrismartensoncom-discussions/united-states-markets-policies
[2] https://www.peakprosperity.com/taxonomy/term/134
[3] https://www.peakprosperity.com/category/tags/warren-buffett