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    Pain Is Inevitable; But Suffering Is Optional

    How to avoid becoming collateral damage in the coming crash
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 24, 2019, 10:35 PM

Sometimes you really do find enlightenment at the top of the mountain.

I spent this week hiking in Montana’s Bitterroot mountain range, as a participant in the pilot run of a new personal-growth-through-adventure-travel startup.

In our group was a famous professional cyclist, who had been a superstar on the Tour de France for many years.

He has a fascinating life story, both on and off the bike. His tales of the super-human efforts required to prevail at the most elite level of this punishing sport are mind-blowing.

The relentless and gruelling training covering thousands and thousands of kilometers. The near-starvation state cyclists exist in to maximize their power-to-weight ratio. Endless travel. Horrific crash injuries. Sponsor pressures. The money and politics driving the sport. Overbearing regulators. Cut-throat teammates. And of course, the pervasive doping.

When we asked him how he managed to persevere at the top of such a demanding sport for so long, despite the huge toll it took on his health and his marriage, he thought for a moment then said: “I suppose I’m just really good at suffering”.

It’s clear that, in addition to some truly amazing experiences, his cycling days have left him with a legacy of damage that he’s still working through.

As he shared this with us, one participant wisely advised him to remember: Pain is inevitable; but suffering is optional.

Yes, he’ll still need to deal with the aftereffects of his racing years. But it’s up to him how much power he wants to give them over his happiness and life path from here.

From Mountains To Markets

I’m struck by how relevant the above advice is to investors right now.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the end of the ten-year bull market has arrived.

As we’ve been warning in recent reports, the fundamentals show a global economy sliding into recession. And the technical charts show a dangerously bearish triple-top in the markets, with all of the major indices punching decisively below the (again bearish) rising wedges they’ve been making for months.

The chart below from Sven Henrich presents a compelling argument that, using comparable measures from the 2001 and 2008 market routs, the S&P 500 has a very real risk of dropping in half within the coming year:

Sven Henrich S&P 500 chart

In March, I shared a trade I was making in my own portfolio given how dangerously overvalued the Tech sector has become. That trade initially performed poorly as the market stumbled higher for a while longer, but is now up 13%.

The incessant jawboning and cheerleading of the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration no longer works the way it once did. The market wants results — progress on trade talks, real revenue and earnings growth. Mere words are no longer enough to boost prices.

Perhaps nobody understands the current dynamics in play better than David Stockman, former head of the Office for Management and Budget under President Reagan, former US Congressman, and former private equity investor.

Stockman not only knows how the power players run the game, he knows many of them personally and understands their motivations, capabilities and weaknesses.

And he’s extremely concerned right now.

So concerned that he asked us to produce a webinar for his website’s followers in which he (and we) laid out where the biggest risks currently lie, why the markets are so vulnerable to a major correction at this point, and most importantly — what steps concerned investors should consider taking right now (i.e., before stocks fall).

The webinar’s underlying message is the same as above: Pain in the markets is inevitable at this point, given the extreme distortions and intervention over the past decade. But Suffering is not. You can position yourself prudently today to minimize/avoid losses, and potentially even profit from a coming market downturn.

We’re pleased to make the replay video of this important webinar available to you here. Make the time to watch to watch it soon (1h:54m):

To get the most out of this webinar, be sure to schedule the free portfolio review offered within it, and download both David Stockman’s charts (here) and Chris Martenson’s charts (here) from the presentation.

And remember that you future depends on the choices you make today. Choose to avoid unnecessary suffering and take prudent action now.

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12 Comments

  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 6:22am

    #1

    KugsCheese

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 834

    Stockman’s website seems to have went thru gyrations of change.   Who is running the ship there?

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 9:42am

    #2

    Matt Holbert

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 03 2008

    Posts: 70

    If the cyclist is Greg LeMond...

    This lawsuit would have been painful and took years to resolve, but maybe the reward is being able to finance a “personal-growth-through-adventure-travel startup.” See https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/business/15resort.html

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 10:50am

    Reply to #2

    Montana Native

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 45

    I'm guessing it's Levi Leipheimer...

    He’s from Butte right in the Bitterooot’s backyard.

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 2:52pm

    #3
    Rodster

    Rodster

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 22 2016

    Posts: 27

    1+

    OK, i'll Play

    I’ll go with Lance Armstrong

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 3:24pm

    #4
    obizzozero

    obizzozero

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 20 2018

    Posts: 2

    I then to agree with David

    First of all, I want to thank the group for an outstanding discussion.

    I tend to agree with David Stockman. If there is a large market downturn, everything will go down including EM. Just like in 2008, the only place to hide will be in US treasuries. Everything else will go down, including precious metals, energy, farm land, etc.

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 4:14pm

    #5

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 8

    4+

    the central banks are delaying the day we have to look at ourselves.

    how can the markets go down now in the way that they should?. we’ve got this coordinated intervention from the central banks eg/ “collusion” by nomi prins. if they did go down dramatically it would be a good thing, because many delusions would be shattered and then we may see things more clearly , like climate disintegration. in fact we should change the terminology from climate change to climate disintegration, its closer to sending the correct message, thank you chris

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 4:34pm

    Reply to #5

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 8

    4+

    we should start using the term “climate desintegration” instead of “climate change”. the 2nd one is too moderate

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  • Sat, May 25, 2019 - 5:06pm

    #6

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 475

    6+

    Suffering is Optional?

    I could wax philosophical, but I’ll just cut to the chase.  There is going to be a boat load of suffering when this experiment fails.

    A very few people might be mentally prepared and perhaps a few others will guess right and get the timing right, but those are going to be the exceptions, not the rule.

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  • Sun, May 26, 2019 - 7:21am

    Reply to #4
    Steve

    Steve

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 10

    7+

    Economy is just one leg of the three legged chair.

    Let’s not forget this economic situation is not occurring in a vacuum.  The three legs of the chair are Economy, Environment and Energy.  For example, as temperatures increase, the ice caps disappear and the oceans rise.  Take a look at the profile of lands that hold moisture in this scenario.  Will fertile irrigable farmland decrease in value just because the economic bubble popped?  And what of the additional impact of peak oil?  It’s difficult to imagine how this scenario will ultimately ripple out.  But, it’s best to develop a positive attitude, learn what you can offer to others and to yourself and try to become a contributing part of a concerned community.

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  • Sun, May 26, 2019 - 5:18pm

    #7
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 223

    3+

    Climate disintegration: excellent term

    wfoord has provided a great insight into what’s going on climatically: not climate change, although change it is, but climate disintegration. The atmosphere is a fluid dynamic system and very complex, capable of considerable instability. Not good for we little creatures living at the bottom of this gaseous ocean.

    It will no doubt re-integrate and re-stabilise into some new arrangement which owing to the physics should greatly resemble the old, but the transition from one state to the other will make for, er, interesting times.

    I don’t know if this video has already been suggested to the PP people, but it’s worth looking at more than once. In fact, this fellow, Just Have A Think, has a lot of engaging explanatory videos.

     

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  • Tue, May 28, 2019 - 11:09am

    #8

    tourcarve

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 10

    Rollo May on Freedom

    Re “…suffering is optional” in other words. In the 60’s, the psychologist Rollo May expressed in various ways that we may choose to put a pause between stimulus and response, and that in that pause lies our freedom. The pain that we see here a PP roaring down the track is and will be a stimulus. The question is, what is to be our response? Suffering is one choice, but we are free to choose something else.

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  • Tue, May 28, 2019 - 2:15pm

    Reply to #7
    CrLaan

    CrLaan

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 05 2010

    Posts: 22

    he’s a scientist?

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