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    From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:51pm

    #
    wildtravel

    wildtravel

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 29 2013

    Posts: 1

    Undocumented Infections

    Hi Chris,

    Thank you so much for your prescience and analysis in forecasting the pandemic and the economy.

    I actually arrived at the same numbers (i.e. 86% asymptomatic transmission) as the data you reported today from New Scientist, by deduction from the WHO’s claimed 3.4% fatality rate, as below:

    Using Worldometer numbers, today’s actual CFR is 18% (30850 deaths divided by total recovered plus total dead), being the outcome of the number of cases who were infected 2 weeks ago (126,214 cases). On this basis, and if the WHO CFR is correct, there should only be 4,291 dead today.
    Guessing that governments are less likely to be lying/unaware of deaths than numbers of infected, and doing a calculation from today’s actual deaths and the WHO CFR suggests there were actually 907,353 cases 2 weeks ago, including asymptomatic cases. That seems a realistic possibility, and gives a ratio of diagnosed to undiagnosed cases of about 14%.

    Applying that number to today’s diagnosed cases (663,127) suggests there are actually about 4.7M actual cases worldwide today.
    Also, if 3.4% of the world’s population does die in the next year before a vaccine, that’s about 265 billion people.

    I hope this deduced conformation of 86% gives you some confidence to harden up the “Scenario A/B” model to extrapolate a clearer picture on the trajectory to herd immunity, and to try and come to terms with worst case extrapolated world fatality numbers.

    Warmest regards to all.

     

     

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:36pm

    #

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 643

    Outstanding Ted & Diane

    That’s how we will bet this virus, thank you.

     

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:04pm

    #
    Ted & Diane Cohn

    Ted & Diane Cohn

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 18 2020

    Posts: 3

    3+

    How to make a mask out of an old t-shirt in one minute!

    This is pure gold, no sewing required, all you need are scissors:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSSyl3m9WLA

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 10:35pm

    Reply to #
    timot78

    timot78

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 18 2010

    Posts: 26

    2+

    Dtrammel,

    No technical details are provided re: wavelength and dosage (mJ/cm^2).

    One of the bullets states: STERILIZES ANYTHING IN JUST 11 MINUTES – Baby bottles, teethers, soft toys, or toothbrushes are fully sterilized in just 11 minutes – Convenient DRYING CYCLE also.

    SO, I suppose, the 2 mJ/cm^2 levels are reached in 10-11 minutes.   Probably would be OK, but would be good to check the claims against dosage produced by this device to make sure the critical germicidal level is reached.

    -Peter

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  • From: A Simple Way To Combat Coronavirus: Everyone Should Wear A Mask!
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:56pm

    #
    thudautu

    thudautu

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 1

    1+

    How Viet Nam fights the Honey Badger virus

    Hi @Chris, for weeks, I have heard good thing about the fight on this deadly virus  in Viet Nam but could not find any info supporting that. A close member of my family recently went to visit Viet Nam 3 weeks ago and witness first hand the situation there. Based on your Gold standard pandemic approach, they hit 1, 1b, relative good on 2 & 2b (having 2.5 hr screening test kit as well as the standard diagnostic test and hit all steps from 3 to 3d but not sure about 4. Today, my kid found this site from Germany hopefully the info is not biased to the current government. Below is the link. Thanks for your time.

    Thudautu

    https://www.dw.com/en/how-vietnam-is-winning-its-war-on-coronavirus/a-52929967

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:53pm

    #

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 643

    Two Masks

    But, good point. these are designed to protect the wearer not the others surrounding.. Its a high pressure solution for the wearer.  but it would expel infection to those around them.   This is not a good mask to wear to protect spread from the wearer.

    You would want to save your N95 masks for when you were not infected, then change to something like a surgical mask or DIY fabric mask once you showed symptoms. Not ideal, since you would have a few days of being asymptomatic and spreading but I don’t see a reason to ditch the more efficient N95 at the beginning phase.

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:51pm

    Reply to #

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 643

    What About Baby Bottle Sterilizers?

    Peter, what about something like this, using led UV lamps?

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07W7HSDPZ/

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  • From: A Simple Way To Combat Coronavirus: Everyone Should Wear A Mask!
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:35pm

    Reply to #

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 643

    Thanks, Did Not Know That.

    I’d been told that it didn’t but, thanks for the update and the information. I’ll be sure to post the correct information from now on.

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  • From: A Simple Way To Combat Coronavirus: Everyone Should Wear A Mask!
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:27pm

    Reply to #
    timot78

    timot78

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 18 2010

    Posts: 26

    1+

    IF you count on UV action - please don't put into any glass or plastic container/ziplock

    Dtrammel,

    Appreciate your post re:coronavirus protection.   However, in p.#62 you recommend putting the masks into ziplock and then expose to sun.  Please, don’t do that. The germicidal wavelength range is maybe 200- 300 nm , and ziplock, like many plastics, does NOT TRANSMIT this wavelength range. The germicidal effect is TOTALLY lost.

    (I have PhD in Optical Physics for those who question posters’ credibility).  So , if you want to use sunrays to kills germs, please expose the masks to the sun w/o any barrier like window, plastic bag, etc. between mask and the sun.  You may end up with the same viral load on the mask as before treatment (Dangerous!).

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  • From: Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear
  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:22pm

    Reply to #

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 952

    1+

    Pat, Trump talked about mask sterilization today...

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/ohio-dewine-trump-administration-mask-ruling-154378

    At issue was the FDA’s decision to allow emergency use of a Battelle system that decontaminates specialized N95 face masks, allowing doctors and nurses to safely reuse them. On Saturday, the FDA approved Battelle’s Columbus headquarters to sterilize 10,000 masks per day, even though the company says its machines have the capacity to decontaminate 80,000.

    “The FDA’s decision to severely limit the use of this life-saving technology is nothing short of reckless,” Gov. Mike DeWine, whose state is home to the company that makes the technology, said in a statement Sunday morning.

    DeWine said he appealed directly to President Donald Trump to allow broader adoption of the system, and Ohio’s attorney general threatened to sue if FDA didn’t act quickly to authorize more extensive use.

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