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    New Studies Raise The Coronavirus Threat Factor

    The more we learn about covid-19, the more nefarious we realize it is
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 4:31 PM

The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more nefarious we realize it is.

Most public efforts to are focused on detecting those with symptoms, like a fever. But new research shows that the majority of covid-19 carriers (50%-75%) are asymptomatic. So you’re much more likely to get infected by someone who looks and feels fine.

To date, it looked like only the elderly and immunocompromised were at risk of serious complications. Well, that assumption is changing. European doctors are reporting a concerning number of younger, healthy people getting sick, too.

Similarly, it was assumed that the virus didn’t thrive in heat and humidity. Hopes in the northern hemisphere have been pinned on the nearing arrival of Spring. Well, new data shows that this may be false hope.

And as government response plans become clearer, the math shows that most of them will be too insufficient to “Flatten The Curve” much and prevent national health care systems from being overwhelmed.

Combined, most of what we’re learning now reinforces the conclusion that many, many people will become infected; the virus will be with us a long time; and the economic legacy will be massive and painful.

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154 Comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:39pm

    #1
    Steve

    Steve

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    Lockdown

    Chris,

    After watching your video, does this mean you do not believe the USA leadership is planning a lockdown?  Are they only doing social distancing and school closings?

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:53pm

    #2

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    2+

    Thank You!

    A day or so ago I watched the Presidents update.  He was asked about a bailout for the cruise industry.  The President said something to the effect that a bailout is being considered, its on the table, The Cruise Industry is a very important industry.

    Later in the Q & A the President was asked about support for small businesses.  He said the SBA will be flush with money and available for businesses.  Meaning, it will be easy for small businesses to get loans.

    I wondered if others caught the message.  Bailouts for Multibillion dollar businesses and loans for us little guys.

    Thanks for pointing that out!

    If the cruise industry does get a bailout my new meme will be to express my disbelief  to anyone who would choose to take a cruise.  We need to send a message... save them and screw us and we will boycott!  If enough people say “enough” we can make a difference.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:38pm

    #3

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

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    Posts: 458

    3+

    Yes -- no-strings bailouts for the Bigs, and "low interest" loans for the little guys

    I spent the last five years building my small one-man business up to where it needed to be.  Quite literally in the last few weeks I hit my target for weekly income.  I'd never be rich, but I'd never have to worry about money (my habits are exceedingly frugal).

    COVID-19 related cancellations have cost me about 800 dollars of income in the last two weeks.  And between now and Saturday I may get hit with further cancellations and further losses.  It'll probably hit 1000 by Saturday.  That's a $26k paycut, annualized.  The idea of taking out a loan, no matter how low the interest rate, to cover even part of that is not appealing.

    But Boeing, who have spent billions on stock buybacks to enrich shareholders and senior execs, stands to get themselves a taxpayer-funded, no-strings bailout in the tens of billions so they can survive another fiscal quarter?

    They should've spent those buyback billions on quality control and they wouldn't be (rightfully) tanking.

    It becomes more and more clear that the tottering edifice known as the USA is too decadent and corrupt to survive.

    Gonna be a long and eventful year.  Prepare accordingly.  Looks like I will become a farmer (like my grandfather -- who's laughing his butt off)...  Happily, I'll be doing it in the context of edible (jungle) forest gardening.  There's no health plan or paid vacay, but the workings of nature at least aren't rigged against me.

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:17pm

    #4
    ja4nice

    ja4nice

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    Joined: Mar 18 2020

    Posts: 1

    Doth the Physician have the umph?

    I have "novel" information about 'the cold' and 'the flu' thus COVID-19. I need a place to send text for Real evaluation. This information concerns general human tracking and personal evaluations which stem to a 'true sight' of the big two common diseases. We, never named a cold or flu, we don't include this in our living world. We only have disgust as a patent stop-gap. I notice that we aren't evolved enough with the environment we use and the topics are maligned. Assess, for example, being blindfolded among a large gathering of trees needing to run for escape. The use of the big two diseases *(laughable) is like this, as using the bathroom we determine that a cure is the only title label to 'cold' and 'flu'. This mothering instinct is as wrong as a blindfold in the above scenario. Given a commonality the advance of 'attack' has position in a 'seen' field. -Explanation, A true to Life label will position each individual to the use of open areas to pass about and contain the loose combination of both diseases which are combined and strengthened to a fear which wears down many individuals, confusing them to the submissive state. "Wearing down" a cold and "Submissive State" a flu, is it seen where I would head with this if I were in disease control? Being 'Old School' I remember this before the electron microscope made it's debut. Ever count how much alloyed metal is of too poor a quality to recycle? This "Feeling" of mine shows a 'Way out of Flux' occurrence with the technological medical response. Dead on though is a routing, like moving about important themes which shun people to dire need - dietary, then highlighting responding courses - exercise ~~So, doctor what is this to the 40th multiple. I hope this helps. The appositive is an actual "closed refuge" which is housed disease, it is an active one always in motion. As far as how this is described I can set a basis. The many years which befell all those lives and startled all the others to lead to this incidence of fatality. It's seemingly an erosion story, a 'Gateway Disease'.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:21pm

    #5
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

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    10 Days Later. A message from Italy

    https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/608113/italy-coronavirus/

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:37pm

    #6

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2+

    FB algorithm flagging my comments against Trump now

    I just got three "goes against our community standards - spam" warnings in half an hour. That or someone who doesn't like my comments is reporting them as spam.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:44pm

    #7
    davez

    davez

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    davez said:

    I've had trouble with the John Hopkin's data. They changed their archived data format. Now I'm also pulling from the OurWorldInData data.

    In any case, I updated this spreadsheet if you'd like to use it. Remember to copy it and check back for edits.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FXVgNrTbECcO8X4-hFXhJuqgE5sl-7ddU-IO2ciXCdU/edit#gid=1157182735

    I like using this one to check on US states.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:45pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

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    Don't Have A Clue What You Are Talking About Ja4nice

    Perhaps you would like to clarify just what you are talking about? I couldn't make heads or tails of what your point is.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:48pm

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 309

    FB bots are flagging lots

    Dtrammel, don't take it personally. I think Facebook's algorithms are overreacting to things right now. One of my friends from Australia reported the same thing, that Facebook was flagging posts "against community standards". He was linking to articles in mainstream newspapers.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:53pm

    #10

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    Link to Neil Ferguson’s Paper?

    Dr. Ferguson's Paper was referenced in the video.  Could we get the link to that paper?

    Thanks

    AKGranny

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:57pm

    #11
    Jamie Mason

    Jamie Mason

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    Jamie Mason said:

    I think this article provides some insight on why people aren't being tested:

    The county is advising that only those who need medical case should be tested. Those with mild symptoms are recommended to stay home.

    Currently, San Diego's public health lab can test up to 120 tests per day. County tests are now also final and do not need to be sent to the CDC for confirmation.

    They basically are rationing the tests for people that need treatment.  My neighbor was exposes and went to the hospital with flu symptons and they refused to test him; they just told him to self isolate.

     

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:01pm

    #12
    Kevin Padden

    Kevin Padden

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    Joined: Nov 04 2008

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    We’re all guinea pigs

    So might as well learn something.  Unless it’s already known, then not quite necessary to take the hard way too often. To wit:  Anybody have an angle on crossover immunity potentially available or contraindicated with shingles? Don’t got them but had the first of a two shot vaccination sequence which now has me scheduled for the second next week.  The first was a painful arm and a noticeable systemic reaction unusual for me and shots. So now I’m wondering 🤔 Will I be stronger against CoVid 19 if the shot doesn’t kill me or weaken my defenses by sapping energy towards an unnecessary defense against the merely theoretical shingles now.  Apparently to be most effective this is the time window to have the second one.  I hope I could arrange to have the injection delivered to my car in the parking lot to best maintain my distancing and otherwise I would probably decline the risk of my GP’s waiting/treatment rooms.  But maybe a small risk to provide an anecdotal data point to toss into the sea of conjecture we’re swimming in.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:08pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    Link to Ferguson's paper ref. in Chris' video

    Here 'ya go, AKGranny! 🙂

    Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:12pm

    #14
    joesam45

    joesam45

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    RE: Lack of PPE for hospital staff.

    Anecdotal story from friend that is on staff at Atlanta VA Hospital. She was consulting on a patient with corona virus and was not provided ANY PPE. In same room with patient and other consulting doctors! Discussed concern with superiors and got less than a positive response and no PPE.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:13pm

    #15

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    1+

    Thank You Sparky1

    👍

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:14pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1303

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    Sager, i feel for you, i really do

    Having been self-employed for 34 years, I can fully empathize with what you're going through.  But when I look at the trend over the years, I realize they can say with words all they want but their actions say something else.  They find the small business owners to be too independent and know their control is more complete without us.  We have become like the kulaks during Stalin's era.  They want more of the hive minded wage (and tax) proletariat slaves.  And the public isn't much better.  The majority have, over time, largely deserted small independently owned businesses in favor of large corporately owned chains.  The ma and pa family owned repair shops, sporting goods stores, grocery stores, clothing stores, office supply stores, book stores, bakeries, restaurants, health care offices, etc. have all been steadily and progressively squeezed out of business, both by government regulation and by advertising and convenience influencing public perception.  It's all part of the trend, for a variety of reasons, towards a more fascio-socialistic society.

    When German troops advanced through Poland and then the USSR during WW2, they were struck by the stark difference between the two countries.  In capitalist Poland, they noted all the thriving small shops lining the streets of towns and cities.  In communist Russia, there was none of that.  Collectivism had taken over and the results were decidedly negative.  Bleaker, uglier, with less choice, less joy, and less vitality but abundant fear and apprehension in their place .

    AK Granny is right about one thing.  Enough people saying "enough" can make a difference.  The problem is, society has been so effectively and efficiently divided that it will be exceedingly difficult to unify them to act as one without a multitude of scab turncoats.  Boycotting won't do it.  History shows something else will though.

    But the sheeple have been intentionally dumbed down, pacified, dis-abled, and wimpyfied so I just don't see that happening any time soon.  I don't have to tell you that.  You've been around here long enough and know the score as well as any of us.

    Here's a possible suggestion.  Maybe promote a class with whole body spontaneous movements, similar to Trager Mentastics, Emilie Conrad's Continuum Movement, or Upledger's Unwinding for purposes of stress reduction, relaxation, and lymphatic system movement and "flushing", emphasizing the latter as a means to stimulating and enhancing our immune system activity (which it does).  Just a thought, FWIW.

     

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:21pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1303

    dtrammel, wasn't there someone who used to post on here about 10 years ago

    He would sign his posts something like "from Norway" and it was amusing nonsense speak that he'd do for entertainment.  I wonder where he went.  Maybe Ja4nice is related to him.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:29pm

    MonK

    MonK

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    Don't Have A Clue What You Are Talking About Ja4nice

    I mean this in the kindest possible way, I genuinely think Ja4nice might be suffering with anxiety / paranoia / schizophrenia re Covid19, as this kind of rambling matches what I have seen before with actually diagnosed people

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:48pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 700

    regarding ja4mice

    Something is definitely a miss,  Just too incoherent for me to even try to diagnose.  But you are probably correct Monk.  Its a shame,  I struggle cognitively at times due to health issues too,  But, hope I don't get too far gone.  But if i were, I doubt , i'd be able to post here.

     

     

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:04pm

    #20
    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

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    Blood Type A more likely infected with Covid-19, O is less likely

    People with blood type A are more likely to be infected with Coronavirus while type O blood people are less likely to be infected.    All types do get infected.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:07pm

    #21

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

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    Ugh, Don’t Read Prof. Ferguson's Paper

    Unless your ready for the gravity of - our future isn’t going to look like our past.

    Wow, going to take some time to wrap my mind around it. Info overload tonight, Chris and the Professor.  Has to be a book plot in there somewhere.

     

     

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:24pm

    #22

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    Estimates of Asymptomatic Infection

    With that study out of Rome, is there a number for the percentage of the random sample that tested positive? That would give us a rough number for total cases, which could be plugged into the CFR (if we assume asymptomatic cases will resolve to "recovered").

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:37pm

    #23
    bfelton

    bfelton

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    Ferguson's paper suggests a strategy

    Going by that study, it looks like employing all measures could keep the infection rate below hospital capacity. The way to keep the disease from bouncing back after controls are relaxed is to use the months of lock-down to burn firewalls. Start by sending a batch of kids back to school, infecting them, and keeping them there for two weeks. The batch sizes could be controlled to always keep hospitals from reaching capacity (most kids won't need it anyway). In a few months every young person would be immune and no longer a hazard. Once they obtained their Honey-Badger merit badge, the young could fill positions requiring public contact. Played correctly, we might be able to achieve herd immunity in a five-month lock-down, without all the excess deaths.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:38pm

    #24

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

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    How To Sterilize Used Masks - Megathread Compilation

    Ok, for those who asked, I've compiled all the comments about methods to sterilize used masks. Hopefully that will give you some ideas to extend your mask supply.

    Covid19 PPE – Sterilizing and Reusing Masks

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:52pm

    chloecasey

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    Question regarding the study

    Maybe I missed it since I didn't read it very carefully, but isn't there a flaw in the "beds available" line. It is flat. The hope is that we could ramp that up over time.  So even if we are going to just postpone the highest part of the bell curve hopefully the "beds available" line would be greater by pushing it out (obviously never great enough to meet the total demand of those tall curves though).

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:05pm

    #26

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    The Line Will Go Up Or Down

    Chloecasey, that's a good question, and the answer is yes and no.

    The line isn't actually just number of beds, its the over all hospital system's capacity. It includes things like beds but also drugs and health care workers and equipment like ventilators. Those will fluctuate as the crisis unfolds.

    Afridev has a good chart that shows that in a recent comment. Afridev has it decreasing as the infection curve progresses due to HCWs becoming sick and or dying and leaving the system, dropping the number of people the system can save.

    For simplicity, most people are showing it as a straight line.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:16pm

    #27
    Mark Janney

    Mark Janney

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    A related paper on how policy objectives influence deployment of NPI

     

    Found this while chasing down references in the paper cited in the video.

    Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza A: Balancing Conflicting Policy Objectives

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3037387/pdf/pcbi.1001076.pdf

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:51pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 700

    regarding blood types and infection/death rates

    That is interesting.  I guess you could deduce the % of B by the rest.  But I wonder why it was left out..  B is the primary blood type of of asian continent.   where O and A are actually a minority blood type - this study seems to suggest that its about 33/33/33 mix across asians and I know that is wrong.  B is the majority of blood type accounting for about 45-55% of the population.  Where as the majority of N american and Europe has A about 55-60%   and about 30% O .  and B is the minority in Europe and America.  And O is the majority in africa.   The point here ...  is if A was the majority of infections and death in asia.. BOY!!! watch out here in the US where twice the populattion is A..    My wife, and I and children are all B.    ( asian blood  ) we call ourselves.  as I have blood allergies and disorders common in the asian population we are Caucasian.. So , I know a bit about  this.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:17pm

    #29

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

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    Interesting Idea

    Once they obtained their Honey-Badger merit badge, the young could fill positions requiring public contact. Played correctly, we might be able to achieve herd immunity in a five-month lock-down, without all the excess deaths.

    As a sci-fi writer, I'm open to outside the box thinking. Interesting idea.

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  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:20pm

    #30
    DavidSV

    DavidSV

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    Joined: Oct 29 2011

    Posts: 43

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    Alameda Co shuts down Tesla. Just another misleading Musk tweet!

    In a major test of the Bay Area’s shelter-in-place edict, Alameda County on Tuesday evening deemed Tesla’s Fremont factory a “nonessential” business — hours after Chief Executive Elon Musk opened the plant and told his employees he would continue working despite a seven-county shutdown of virtually all major workplaces aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-elon-musk-says-its-totally-ok-for-tesla-employees-to-work-from-home/

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:12am

    #31
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    10+

    Sharing among friends: Good News St. Patty's Day, and a song :-)

    Hey everybody,

    I've alluded to my bout with a serious illness this past year and, given how much I value and guard my privacy, I tend to keep a low profile in general and especially so regarding personal matters. Even so, I've made the sole exception for participating with the PP tribe as you are all such a colorful, caring, engaging, intelligent and vibrant community. 🙂

    So…I'll share with you my little St. Patty's celebration:  Today all tests (biopsy, CT scan, exams, etc.) confirmed that I "no longer have evidence of  cancer". Yeah!!! (In true medical CYA, no one except Hallmark cards uses the term "Cancer-free"--seriously, they have cards for that!!)

    After enduring chemo-radiation therapy (which really, supremely SUCKS! BTW) and having my body, mind and life hijacked by this scourge, I am happy to have regained my energy, health and mental capacity (no more lapses into WTF, is that me?? "chemo-brain"--the WORST!).

    And I've had enough of dealing with the "sick" care medical, pharmaceutical and insurance systems to puke a river. However, I especially appreciated the care and expertise of those heath care workers (who unfortunately don't understand or are misinformed of the value of natural medicine) who have worked diligently to give me their/my best possible chance against this disease. More recently, I am concerned (as they are) about the challenges they and their medical fragile patients face with coronavirus.

    (Sidenote:  Want to prevent cancer?? Stop poisoning our bodies, food, air, water, environment...!!!)

    No doubt that cancer is a big and profitable business (whether via government, for-profit or not-for-profit or some combination thereof) that feeds off of goodwill, hopes, fears and greed. It was strange for me to be a participant/victim/observer throughout this process. I was grateful yet mortified at the costs that my insurance covered for testing and care for me over these past nine months. Even still, I owe several thousands in co-pays, for which I'll be paying for many months/years ahead.  Reluctantly, I've had a front row seat at the table of the US "sick care" medical-pharmaceutical-financial casino in which one's health, finances and life are up for grabs against actuarial and accountant overlords.

    Come what may:  "F*ck 'em!" They don't own or rule me, and I will do what I need to do to survive and thrive.

    Throughout this process (people like to call it a "journey" apparently; no disrespect intended, I just never viewed it that way personally) I was keenly aware of how really  lucky I was. My pre-cancer cells were diagnosed very early as suspicious, then confirmed at stage one, no metastasizing and with a relatively short "standardized" chemo-radiation treatment protocol with very favorable survival rates (90+%). I have no co-morbid conditions (and no family history or risk-factors for cancer, BTW). The prognosis was positive from the start. Still, I could easily be among those "special" 10% that wouldn't make it; and I often find myself among the "special" group.

    Many of those waiting with me (in ill-fitting hospital gowns and booties, eyes averted, with only hesitant, anxious and looks and curt conversations) in the radiation waiting room, were gravely ill, with a prognosis clearly much worse than mine. Some were wheeled-in on gurneys, with grey skin and unaware of their surroundings. Some weeks I walk around with a "portable" infusion pump that added a 3-foot perimeter and impediment to getting dressed and navigating even the simplest of tasks. (Now easily adapted as a 1/2 space reminder of the 6 ft. "social distance" needed for CV prevention spread.)    I felt strangely grateful for the ability to mingle so intimately among those--me included!--on the precipice of life and death.

    This has been hard for me and my family in many ways, and yet divine intervention/circumstance cleared the way for me to fully attend to getting well during this especially difficult time.

    Unbeknownst to you all, the PP community and content has been an anchor to reality, mental acuity and social engagement that helped me to navigate throughout this tumult and emerge intact and strong. Whew, and thank you!

    I also want to acknowledge the struggles of PP members who have experienced, or are now struggling with similar life altering/threatening experiences, even within or over and above the current clusterf*ck of the coronavirus/financial crises.

    In my thoughts in particular is someone who precede my time here at PP is valued, long-time PP member Michael Rudman. He sent a very moving, poignant comment regarding his struggle and acceptance of stage four cancer and prognosis, with his fond farewell to his long-time comrades here at PP. I sent him a PM, and still wish him well. I feel for him and his loved ones, and appreciate very deeply that I could easily be in his circumstance.

    There but for the grace of God, go I.

    Happy Saint Patrick's Day, everyone!  Here's a bit of St. Patrick's Day silliness from Jimmy Kimmel, who as are other late-night comedy hosts, is isolating at-home to keep themselves and others safe from this CV pandemic. https://youtu.be/bEQl6Pt-654?t=490

    Stay well, all. We live to fight another day. 🙂

    All the best,

    ~Sparky1

     

     

      

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:14am

    #32
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

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    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 151

    Virus has hit!!!

    14 patients on Monday, 5 went home with negative test, 1 went to ICU and 8 are still waiting on their test results (taking two days + to get!). I will try and show how this progresses as weeks unfolds. This is for just one Hospital in the Clinton Twp. area hospital, Michigan, about 15 min. outside Detroit. Food has been flying off the shelves now, no one is wearing masks. I've decided to order curb side pick up, costs is 4.95!!! A NO BRAINER. For a little more it gets delivered to my apartment. That is what we will do! We decided late last year to sell our home, I did this so we wouldn't run into any of this type thing (I thought it would be Financial though). Now that this Coronavirus has hit I can still proceed with our Log Cabin. I wish you well Folks. Here's my thing, this is the hand we were dealt, you survive or don't. My plans are to not only survive but thrive and so far so good. My life hasn't changed a bit because we envisioned this at some point in our future and is why we sought out the Chris's in this world, the Charles H. Smith's. All of us did. I too are a strong believer of boycott and my list is getting pretty long. I had a thought: are we still making 50 different cereals in this environment when Corn Flakes, Sugar Bears, Sugar Pops and Shredded Wheat are just fine with me? I mean, who really needs fruity pebbles? Must admit, I seldom eat cereal anymore. I favor Tusca (Veal dipped in farm fresh eggs dipped in flour then cooked for one minute (there thin sliced). It's all I seem to eat of late. My ham and eggs!

    Peace

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:28am

    #33
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 26 2018

    Posts: 16

    2+

    Military readiness

    From yesterday’s video thread, there was some good discussion of precautions the US military is taking with its personnel. One assertion, or assumption that’s worth looking at is that the govt is prioritizing military personnel for testing, or that the military is testing all of its personnel.

    However...

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3075578/how-will-worlds-most-powerful-military-fight

    buried in the middle is this line: “The defense department has tested 495 personnel worldwide”. Think about that. That is the active duty and reserve component personnel of all services. Plus DoD civilian employees, contractors, and dependent family members. 495 is an insignificant number.

    I just want to dispel any notion that the military is somehow better prepared than the rest of govt, has a better plan, or is being prioritized in any way for testing.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:51am

    #34
    RPSTemple

    RPSTemple

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 24 2012

    Posts: 26

    1+

    COVID 19 online Course - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

    For those interested, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is running online course on COVID 19 staring next Monday, 23rd March.

    The link to the course is:

    https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus?utm_campaign=fl_march_2020&utm_medium=futurelearn_organic_email&utm_source=newsletter_broadcast&utm_term=200313_ADH__0030_COVID&utm_content=course05_copy

    A link to London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is:

    https://www.futurelearn.com/partners/london-school-hygiene-tropical-medicine?utm_campaign=fl_march_2020&utm_medium=futurelearn_organic_email&utm_source=newsletter_broadcast&utm_term=200313_ADH__0030_COVID&utm_content=copy

    Richard

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:30am

    #35
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    Chris, think a little harder about what you are saying!!!

    I did not like this video today because it stunk from the smell of revenge without giving any consideration of the consequences. Don't you think you are going a little overboard Chris? The public companies you are talking about are more than just a bunch of stock sales that rewarded insiders and management during buybacks.

     

    The values of those shares is also what backs the value of the nations pension plans and 401k's. And the companies that sell those shares publicly are also the largest employers in the country. If you convince enough people that they should not be supported during this emergency with your misdirected rant against supporting companies during a crisis because you think they are bad actors are you also prepared to make an important video apologizing for why millions of pensions and jobs will be wiped out while you are pressing your 4th turning agenda?

     

    Honestly brother, you are completely out to lunch on this one. I am not saying there are no problems in the system but are you not pushing this "shut down of the whole system" thing a little too far in your zeal to contain a virus that may or may not even be that dangerous? In six months or a year when some of the biggest companies in the country are bankrupted because of a combination of Corona virus panic and the rallying call from people just like you to close the entire economy, do you really think America will be better off?

     

    Lately your work has gone right off the rails and lost all perspective because even though there might be some elements of truth in your analysis, your prescriptions are about the equivalent of giving arsenic to the patient with a tablespoon of mercury on top to fix everything. Your lack of understanding of what this economy needs to recover and sustain itself while we deal with this viral outbreak is remarkable. What part of mass unemployment sounds good to you? Will that make your community safer? Your entire thesis of shutting it all down to prevent contagion (that 97% of people will survive anyway) is terribly flawed and extremely damaging because ultimately everyone will be impacted by the virus anyway.

     

    So we cannot avoid it and hiding in bunkers won't make it go away.

     

    Even the Chinese have recently discovered that the illness erupts again as soon as people return to work so all those closures over there and the utter devastation and collapse of that economy were not successful in stopping what cannot be stopped anyway. The approach was wrong headed from day one. We need to reassess this thing from scratch and business must carry on. There does not even have to be bailouts of companies if the companies keep operating, does there? Except people like you keep shouting to "flatten the curve" and "stay home" and you have been pushing that narrative so persuasively that you now have a huge following that backs the idea without any insight into the incredible damage that this is causing.

     

    Could you perhaps tone it down a little because you are losing my support. But not only that, lately you have become one of the most dangerous influencers on the topic of solving the problems of how to deal with Corona Virus with your damaging prescriptions and I am beginning to think maybe you are getting a little drunk on your fame without realizing you and people just like you have now become the biggest hazards to the entire economy.

     

    You went from being highly informative, entertaining and helpful on this subject of Covid19, straight into being a social nuisance and a problem to everyone who has a business, a job or a pension. It is far preferable to getting this virus than it is to taking your advice. At least there will be something to wake up to tomorrow.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 3:15am

    #36

    gnltabor

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 21 2010

    Posts: 34

    1+

    What if the Emperor has no clothes?

    Chris and Adam,

    My wife and I have been watching your daily posts on the Novel Corona Virus since you started posting in January and warned our children, who are spread around the country, that they should begin preparing in January.  We could totally relate when you wrote about how some are not ready to accept the reality of what was coming and accepted that they would come around eventually.  We even chuckled to ourselves as one, who was particularly critical, finally called to say they hadn't prepared adequately and had no idea it would get this crazy.

    I also read Martin Armstrong's daily blogs faithfully and am a subscriber to his entry level private blog.  Martin has been critical of Gold Bugs, but also states there will be a time when Gold will rise as the dollar falls, but that time is not yet.  Armstrong is not an epidemiologist, but he's seriously well connected on economic matters and is a student of history and all things which have significant economic consequences, including modeling the cycles of sickness, to which he says we are at the start of a cycle that wasn't supposed to peak for another 2 years, yet we've gone off the rails on this virus without justification.

    After watching last night's video update, in which you reported the virus infection rates for the UK, which has admitted it lacks sufficient medical beds for serious respiratory infections with only 25 in the whole country, something I presume is caused by their Social Medicine constraints, shows that no matter which approaches are taken, the hospitals in the UK will be overwhelmed and if we force it down too quickly, it will most likely re-occur and spike a second time.

    In contrast to your daily messages, Martin Armstrong he has been criticizing the entire event as overblown and doing way more damage than is warranted.  In recent days, he's even outright declared there must be a conspiracy of some kind behind this as it is so irrational.  Last night he posted this:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/dr-wolfgang-wodarg-confirms-this-is-an-insane-panic/

    After listening to the embedded video and observing that China initially blew up and has since stabilized, coupled with the details in your video from yesterday, I'm now asking myself whether this whole event is overblown?  I've also watched the historical documentaries on what happened in 1917/18, watched interviews with people who lived through that epidemic from historical archives, and have heard how my great grandfather died of Sepsis immediately after recovering from the Spanish Flu, and lived through the 1968 Epidemic though I was only 6 at the time.  I also survived Measles, Mumps, and Chicken pox, along with many cases of the flu in my lifetime.

    My wife works in a Public School in Colorado that suddenly extended Spring Break by a week on the front side, leaving little time to prepare.  We had already made plans to take extra time off to travel to AZ, a part that hasn't had a single case reported yet, to be with her 82 year old mother who's recently been diagnosed with a tumor on a kidney which has been non-functioning since she was a child and also has an external lesion in a sensitive area that has been diagnosed as cancerous and was scheduled for surgical removal yesterday.  After watching the number of cases climb and government reactions increase, we decided my wife should not fly out but we would take extra time off and drive out to reduce the chance my wife would be exposed in airports and bring the virus to her mom accidentally.  We arrived Sunday evening, but on Monday, after 14+ hours of traveling here over the weekend, the Dr. calls to say they are postponing the surgery.  Likewise, the Nephrologist calls to cancel her afternoon appointment on Monday, which was to be a consult in preparation for scheduling the kidney/tumor removal in April, another reason we traveled all this way.  So now, knowing that the Novel Coronavirus infection will continue to spread over time, we wonder when these procedures might be re-scheduled and at what risk to her personal health, given she has two cancerous conditions that will remain untreated?

    Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg's video embedded in Armstrong's blog post calls the question, declaring that the Emperor has no clothes, but the din of hysteria will drown out the messenger in this instance if no one gives heed.  Clearly, we are probably off the cliff already on this whole situation Economically as every leading governmental figure strives to look like they are doing everything possible to stem the rising tide.  If, as you reported Chris, there may actually as many as 75% of the cases which are asymptomatic, is it not possible that we've really overblown this situation?  Couldn't we be well on our way to developing herd immunity?  Doesn't the chart from the U.K. showing the whole thing could blow over by August suggest we may be overreacting?  Isn't it true that their charts represent an extreme in comparison to the U.S. Medical system's capacity to treat truly ill patients? Aren't you fostering false panic like one respondent noted about family members in FL who rushed to the hospital only to discover they had the common flu and not the Novel Coronavirus, but in the process, may have exposed themselves to the new virus if the threat is real?  Aren't there way too many people panicking with cart loads of toilet paper?  If not, help me to understand what Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, a practicing epidemiologist, has gotten wrong in his analysis of what has already occurred and is happening?  He seems to be suggesting that no one has the data to properly assess the reality of the risk of this "Novel Coronavirus" and points out that Coronaviruses make up 10%-15% of the "common flu" case history which has demonstrated a maximum combined R0 of only 1.0 with death rates of 0.1% or 1/1,000 deaths for those who become ill each year and that the number of deaths from Novel Coronavirus haven't even come close to the normal Coronavirus deaths routinely experienced every year?  Given what you've shared, is it really worth the risk of crashing the global economy to pursue such draconian measures as are now being implemented across our country and the world?  You argued yesterday that companies who implemented stock buybacks to boost share price should not be bailed out... If pension funds hold those shares and are in dire straits, won't punishing those same corporations actually punish the general populace whose Index Fund investments in 401K's, the now most prevalent form of retirement funding, at risk of losing their life savings?  Where's the balance in all of this?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 3:46am

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 123

    1+

    Thank you.

    Thank you. It is very useful to have all of this in one spot.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 4:21am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 219

    Bridging the political divide(s)

    ao wrote:

    AK Granny is right about one thing.  Enough people saying “enough” can make a difference.  The problem is, society has been so effectively and efficiently divided that it will be exceedingly difficult to unify them to act as one without a multitude of scab turncoats.  Boycotting won’t do it.  History shows something else will though.

    I have found lots of common ground between the "left" and "right" around two issues, which are inter-related: localism, and organic.

    The political right speaks about localism in terms of states rights, stronger community power to govern itself, weak federal level authority. The political left speaks of localism as such, but also as grassroots democracy and building community.

    Organic is less of a bridging concept and is generally thought of as being the province of the "left," but the "right" has a moderately sized contingent of "conservatives" who think the term includes conserving the soil, the right to seeds and seed diversity (opposition to narrowing selection, and patenting), and the right to eat as one wants. Such rights are part of local control and maximal individual autonomy.

    Too often both sides miss the fact (almost ironically, in this era) that the common pursuit of localism is an affirmation of the core principle behind the US Constitution: that people in their communities (village, county) reserve maximal power to govern their common life, and that the federal government be as weak as possible without disintegrating.

    Of course states are at least as capable of coordinating response to shared problems - like this pandemic, but also resource allocation and protection - as the federal government; better even, being on the scene and knowing the idiosyncrasies of local concern and needs. There's a long body of work documenting the ability of locals to define and protect common resources - some have been working successfully for 500 years and more! (See Ostrom, "Governing the Commons")

    The answer to the threat of DC is to rebuild community and own our shared responsibility for personal and common welfare at the local level. I'm not expecting it any time soon. A healthy locality would not hope for federal dollars, but would be helping one another weather hard times. We are far from that!

    But, hey, maybe this experience will shift our expectations enough that we'll corporately want to get off the federal government's teat. That's what's required as a prerequisite to telling them to go to hell.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 4:34am

    Haiku4U

    Haiku4U

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 06 2019

    Posts: 9

    6+

    There should be only VERY limited bailouts this time

    I think bailouts should ONLY be used for those companies deemed "critical" to an ongoing economic recovery or to help in the struggles with the Covid-19 pandemic.

    ALL other bailouts should be part of the existing U.S. bankruptcy process where shareholders are wiped out, assets are reorganized, executive level employees are terminated, and shares in a new, debt free company are sold after the new company comes out of receivership in a few years. Employees should get job and financial protections for their wages, pensions and 401ks.

    We cannot allow bailouts without having consequences to the people responsible for the terrible financial decisions that put these companies in this place to begin with.

    "NEVER Again" should be our new motto.

    And YES, I would be taking a financial hit to my retirement accounts and probably to my pension plan, however these bailouts have to STOP!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 4:34am

    #40
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 171

    Question to non-Dutch

    Hi all,

    I noticed that (nearly) all vitamin C products, and especially ascorbate powder are sold out. It started first in specialized online stores (only accessible to healthcare workers). Is this the same in your country?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:05am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 171

    1+

    Re: What if the emperor...

    First of all,

     

    I gave you a thumbs up: critical thinking and asking questions ensures that we do not get lost in a tunnel vision.

    As to your question: I know it's impolite to counter a question with a question, but why not ask this to North Italian health care workers or citizens? You can do that via twitter.

    Anyway, glad to hear to you and your family are prepared: better safe than sorry.

    Take care!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:10am

    Spikenard

    Spikenard

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 16

    4+

    Spikenard said:

    Nairobi, do you think it is ok if big companies get bailouts but little companies only get loans? Do you think that companies buying back their shares to artificially inflate their share price to increase the loot of well-placed executives gives a reasonable basis for the valuation of the company‘s shares for pension plans and 401Ks?

    Do you think that the little people—the so-called *deplorables* are not already boiling over with resentment toward the differential treatment between the rich and powerful elites and themselves? That this, itself, has the potential to bring down the whole edifice called the economy?

     

    Essentially, you seem to be arguing that we need to keep up appearances, because if we recognize the groundswell of discontent, the whole chickenwire and plasterboard construction could come tumbling down.

    I‘m ignoring your invective, as you can see. I, for one,  would appreciate a point by point rebuttal by you of Chris‘s presentation. I‘m new here, so please excuse any unintended lack of discretion on my part.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:11am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 226

    1+

    community spread-presumed Covid until proven otherwise?

    When you know you have a huge epidemic of one thing, and people are presenting all over the place, why spend time and money on testing when you cannot treat?   The horse is so far out of the barn and testing is complicated, hard to procure and risky.  Honestly anyone who is getting cough fever etc.. is probably presumed to have Covid 19.  I don't blame the doctors because they have been forced into this kind of diagnostic process for 2 months at least due to lack of tests.   If someone is told to isolate, I am sorry to say, they are likely presumed to have Covid 19.  Since they cannot help someone with mild symptoms they are being told to isolate to avoid spread.   That's what it sounds like.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:32am

    #44
    movingalong

    movingalong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 03 2017

    Posts: 8

    11+

    My Win

    I went from being considered obsessed and opinionated to hero this week according to my wife.

    Humoring me in support of my effort to prepare for what's coming, we agreed to acquire what we were going to consume or can return.

    With the oncoming virus attack, last week I had her sit down and view hear first Peak Prosperity video. She got it. Her first comment was how much she really liked Chris' manner and speaking voice.

    The result was ALL the data I exposed her to IMMEDIATELY ALIGNED. I'm not exaggerating , it was lights on with the whole person alert and on-board. Enlightenment took place before my eyes, like a soul taking possession at birth.

    This week, more than once, she expressed an amazement at how out-in-front we are to all that we have followed in the news. She urges me for any updates now.

    Thank You, again, Peak Prosperity

    To Dr. Martenson, Thank You For Standing Tall!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:13am

    #45
    TamHob

    TamHob

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 13 2020

    Posts: 39

    1+

    Imperial college paper

    Eh, that Imperial College paper explains so much! So many of the politicians and senior medical talking heads here in Australia and overseas have been quoting phrases, so it (or the ideology) must be well known. My summary:

    1) lockdowns don't work due to infection resurgence once lifted (implicitly assumes inability to test, lack of masks etc)

    2) throw the kids under the bus, they are minimally affected so ideal to get them all infected/recovered as quickly as possible to contribute to herd immunity. Definitely don't close education, possibly consider 'plague parties'.

    3) sacrifice any seniors or vulnerable populations that can't or won't self isolate (since any who get it will be far down the triage list once the hospitals explode). They were warned, so it's probably their own fault. (ignores difficulties of these groups in stocking up, isolating if they depend on carers and in my experience the sheer impossibility of getting Boomers to face reality and cut social networks for a year or two)

    4) cases with symptoms should self isolate for 7 days and their households for 14 - would probably cut transmission if implemented. However, after disruptions caused by first 1-2 colds that come home and may or may not be Covid-19 most households are going to stop complying. Especially if the high spread by asymptomatic cases gets out.

    5) wealthy can visibly avoid issues 2)-4) above by working from home and having their kids schooled remotely. This throws all the burden of 'building herd immunity' onto the poorer people - recipe for extreme resentment.

    6) So it won't work. The 'recipe' considers the virus in a vacuum, absent the systemic reactions. To have a hope of working, the public would have needed to be educated about the plan and 'bought in' long before now.  As it is, people will not comply until they see local hospital systems overwhelmed and then they will panic even more and the chaos and crazy will happen - the oh so careful plan to avoid economic chaos by selecting for the optimum number of 'acceptable' deaths will completely fail.

    This is even before considering the validity of the assumptions upon which the strategy is based. Still, it has highlighted for me the impossible task now facing anyone trying to 'manage' this thing and an economy.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:16am

    #46
    Durable

    Durable

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 24 2020

    Posts: 34

    19+

    Nairobi - a reply

    Ive been following Chris for the better part of a decade. He has not changed. He may have a bit more wind in his sails by being proven right, but he is still just a voice in the wilderness putting himself at risk to state his convictions.

    He has been saying that the monetary system is unsustainable and a bubble seeking a pin for a long time. He has pointed out the immoral aspects of corporate influence for a long time.

    His latest video merely echoes what he has been consistently saying for a long time.

    This thing was always gonna go down. Exponential nature of interest, debt, population growth, resource consumption, extractive environmental impacts, and on and on.

    If the facts bother you...the problem is not with the facts.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:18am

    #47
    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    Overhyped? Not so sure...

    The highest median estimate of seasonal flu deaths in this country for the past 10 flu seasons was 61,000.

    (61,000 deaths/340,000,000 US population)×100 = 0.00179% Over the Course of the Entire Flu Season Without Highly Focused NPIs

    (2000 deaths*/16,000,000 Combined Lambordy/Veneto regions of Italy)×100 = 0.0125% Over the Course of Two to Three Weeks With Highly Focused NPIs

    I would say this Emperor sports a treacherous cut of deceitful cloth.

     

    *I assumed roughly 80% of Italian deaths in the cited regions as these comprose the general location for the country's hot zone.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:24am

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 104

    1+

    Vitamine C

    Dave

    You can buy 1 kg package on https://nova-vitae.nl/vitamine-c-poeder-ascorbinezuur-1000-gram-nova-vitae.html

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:26am

    marti61

    marti61

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 30 2015

    Posts: 24

    lorganic- right-left

    I agree with you- when i first bumped into the organic movement as a farmer, the tent was pretty darn big- still is. we seem to do best on agreeing on soil health and nutrient dense food- and arguing about governmnet vs corporate conspiracy. When the NOP was passed we got this sad arrangement of private certifiers audited by the Feds/NOP as the compromise- the thought being that private enterprise would do a better job, less likely to be compromised, which has been shown to be lacking. The larger problem seems to be the nature of hierarchical systems and private greed, with a lack of accountability in both government and private business. So, l leave it to you, what systems, if any, have the best chance of reforming themselves before disaster shows up?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:36am

    #50
    TamHob

    TamHob

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 13 2020

    Posts: 39

    The Vo study

    Does anyone have a link to an actual report of the Vo study? All I can find are newspaper reports. I ask because some of the reports indicate that the follow-up may have only 2 weeks. That is not really enough time to find out if the majority of the people who tested positive were actually true asymptomatic cases or just presymptomatic. Though it does put a major nail in the 'it's just the flu' argument which depends partly on 100s of mild/asymptomatic cases per death rather than just 90.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:40am

    #51
    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 104

    1+

    BailOuts

    Yes, I think bailouts should be done but at the same time it should be done against new shares at price of that moment, not like, here you get some billions, please payback when you can.... Just print new shares for the bailout

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:06am

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    16+

    Nairobi- Feb 5, 2020 join date

    You sure have a lot to say for being a new member on here. If you don't like his videos then go on CNN and discuss. Oh wait, they had nothing to say until the virus was all over the place and beyond proper containment.

    Take a seat and chill, yea?

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:14am

    Geedard

    Geedard

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2014

    Posts: 63

    3+

    Chris voice is not why people are buying so much bog roll...

    100% for sure, Chris voice is not loud enough to tank a global economy.

    And it seems that the much louder voices (Trump and the Fed) might also not be loud enough to avoid disaster.

    So it seems to me that MMT will soon have it's mettle tested...let's see how glorious it will turn out to be.       Maybe this is why people are buying so much bog roll...

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:17am

    #54

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4+

    Two New Mask Efficiency Studies

    MarkBaily in one of the other video comments posted this youtube link on DIY masks.

    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=make+your+own+mask

    Since this is a subject I'm interested in I started watching a couple. This lead me to two articles which had to deal with mask efficiency and reusing masks. This first one really shoots the idea that masks don't help in the foot hard.

    https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/14/can-masks-protect-you-coronavirus

    They did tests on various materials with particles way smaller than the virus. They also tested air gaps and their effect on filtration.

    The second link discusses test conducted by the International Medical Institute of Bejing, which looked at various ways to disinfect used masks. Much of their findings support the ways we have discussed.

    https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/18/how-reuse-and-dispose-your-masks-safely

    "Concerns with reusing masks arise when you consider two factors: Is the mask safe to reuse once it has worn outside and come into contact with possible contaminants, and will the mask continue to properly filter the air after being washed?

    Regarding the first point, it does appear that reusing a mask is safe as long as you handle them correctly (more on that under disposing of masks below) and the filtration mechanism has not been compromised. According to this post from International Medical Center (IMC) Beijing, "The mechanism of filtration is mainly inertial collision, diffusion, and electrostatic adsorption. The premise of using the mask again after disinfection is that the sterilized mask can neither affect the free circulation of air nor destroy the filtering mechanism of the mask."

    I'll keep looking.

    ADDED: More on filter efficiencies at very small particle size

    https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/15/can-air-purifiers-protect-us-coronavirus-covid-19

    ADDED2: Don't put your masks in the window to be disinfected by sunlight, even in plastic bags. The window glass filters out UVc

    https://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q12082.html#

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:19am

    #55

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    17+

    BTW "Likes" are back

    Just noticed you can "Like" posts again! Good going PP IT.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:27am

    #56
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 445

    3+

    New Pepe Escobar article

    China locked in hybrid war with US

    thought provoking, as always...

    Jan

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:31am

    #57

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 120

    Humans vs the economy

    Seems like we are in the middle of a catch 22.

    Hard quarantine for maybe two years+ to save as many lives a possible (maybe 1% death rate).

    Do nothing and suffer maybe a 5%+ death rate because of the increased deaths from the cases that could survive with care if they had been given care.  Issue resolves in about a year.

    If china has been able to quash HB-19 by strict quarantine, then they have the option to loosen a bit and slowly let their population gain herd immunity.  However it will take several years.

    I think we will spend a decade rebuilding whatever economy we can sustain irregardless of which method we choose to get thru the crisis.

    We have have the needed infrastructure (housing,roads, govt) in place already.   We just need to keep making food and medical supplies for as long as it takes to get past this.  At that point we can then figure out how to rebuild (what we can) given the state of energy and the climate at that time.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:33am

    #58
    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 125

    2+

    In The Beginning...

    I have absolutely no faith at all.

    I have none in any invisible, magical, spook…and I have none in any government’s ability to properly act in the best interests of its citizens…nor, any in most people’s ability to grasp Reality, or to think Rationally.

    What is happening now has always been unavoidable. And, it is meaningless to imagine our current state could have been different…in any way, whatsoever.

    If you imagine those, who built the Empire State Building, could have chosen not to do so, for example, then what you are “thinking” is Existence need not be what it actually is…and this can NEVER be the case.

    Everything is NOT POSSIBLE, as the very concept of “possibility” is an expression of ignorance regarding Existence. In any case of “possibility,” only what actually happens is, or ever was, “possible.”

    No matter the number of “possibilities” one imagines for the outcome of any event, or any interaction, what actually does happen was determined to happen, exactly the way it does happen.

    Shakespeare was exact correct:
    “All the world’s a stage,
    And all the men and women merely players;
    They have their exits and their entrances,…”

    Existence is scripted, and your every thought, every gesture, blocked out and choreographed for eternity.

    It is only our ignorance, which provides the joy of not knowing our futures perfectly, and which allows us the ability to grow, and gives us the illusion of possessing a “free will.” In this sense, ignorance is a good thing…something to which even an omniscient intellect must flee to avoid the torments of stagnation.

    Here now, Humanity, en masse, faces the full force of an Existence, unconcerned by our irrationality and failure to identify it…heedless to our wishes for it to be otherwise…for this pathogen to be other than it is.

    Hope? This lies only in our ability to gain power over this threat by correctly identifying exactly every aspect of this pathogen and taking rational action. Values will dictate what actions are taken…and few have rational values.

    Oh, well. Sorry for all the philosophical BS…

    I’m just glad I bought enough Scotch for this S***show.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:36am

    #59

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 120

    5+

    Old Farmers

    As Farmers are in the Old person camp, they will be harder hit than the rest of the population.

    Problem for a population needing food.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:45am

    #60
    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    3+

    Not Ferguson too

    • https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-19-expert-neil-ferguson-self-isolates-after-developing-symptoms

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:47am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 171

    Thanks

    Hi Dutch Boomer,

    Thanks! I actually stocked up on a reasonable (not too much, but enough) of vitamins and minerals. I'm just curious of other countries see the same. The interesting thing is this: in the Netherlands there is no official communication about what people can do to improve their immune system  ("avoid stress" yeah, right). I order all my supplements via a online shop that only delivers to health care workers. I assume that these people know what to do to support their immune system; hence my curiosity.

    Btw: I noticed that the ascorbates were sold out first (I only bought these).

    Take care!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:48am

    Ision

    Ision

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    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 125

    1+

    Food production effected?

    Do not worry about food.  The population will just shrink to whatever level the available food will support, while motivating people to create more food.

    Just think of everything as "Evolution In Action."

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:51am

    000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 171

    4+

    Twinkies and Beer

    09:20 Martini_: Folks - I was in the food distrubution buis for almost thirty years at a big level. It takes a lot of people to make that system work. God help if they start getting sick.The produce industry alone will be under unbelievable stress in Califorina this up coming season alone if they stop letting mexican workers in the US. Also if they were to halt produce distrubution into the US out of Mexico because of the virus the hike in prices will be unthinkable. I know a lot of people in the industry and there is a lot of fear right now at a level I've never seen.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:54am

    000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 171

    Advice from a foreigner

    The die is cast. --J. Caesar (a foreigner)

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:08am

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 120

    Sure, but that is nuts

    Obviously we will only support the number of people that we can support in the long term.

    Just deciding to go full armegedon to get there seems like a dumb idea.  We have always been about trying to build a path from here to there.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:20am

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 120

    jturbo68 said:

    As long as money determines what gets done, then id say you are right.

    Perhaps doing what needs to be done will become the order of the day.  At that point people may lend a hand to the tasks needed because they are needed.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:23am

    #67

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    16+

    Nairobi -

    I survived the 1964 earthquake.  It lasted 4 1/2 minutes and was a 9.2. Thats was a big, long earthquake.  The aftermath was a tsunami, which killed people.  We lost power, houses collapsed and many roads became impassible.  The morning of the earthquake no one thought, tomorrow my house will be rubble, I will not have power and my life will have completely have changed.

    A lot of people do not get how are lives are changing.  They want to have a drive-by morgue where Chris stands outside, opens the curtains and says, “see the dead bodies, I am right”.

    I am not saying there are no problems in the system but are you not pushing this “shut down of the whole system” thing a little too far in your zeal to contain a virus that may or may not even be that dangerous?

    Well thank god he is and does not listen to nay-sayers.  If you listen to the historic 1918 Pandemic story the communities that distanced and prohibited public gatherings saved lives.  It takes an independent, free thinking maverick to step out on a ledge and Chris has stepped out on that ledge.  He is and his work will continue to save lives.  Your criticism does not save lives it hinders the process and instills doubt.

    Your entire thesis of shutting it all down to prevent contagion (that 97% of people will survive anyway) is terribly flawed and extremely damaging because ultimately everyone will be impacted by the virus anyway.

    Really, lets let the elderly, and medically challenged die, no biggie, 97% of the important people will survive, right.  Boy is that cold and apathetic!

    The public companies you are talking about are more than just a bunch of stock sales that rewarded insiders and management during buybacks.

    Well lets take a look.  Those companies are gigantic multi-million dollar companies that want and get preferential treatment.  They want to be bailed out and coddled again.  What you do not understand is that this country will disintegrate if the practice of giving money to the big and rich and taking money from the small and poor continues.  Who the hell is going to fly in your precious airline and go on a cruise when we can’t put food on the dam table?

    You went from being highly informative, entertaining and helpful on this subject of Covid19, straight into being a social nuisance and a problem to everyone who has a business, a job or a pension. It is far preferable to getting this virus than it is to taking your advice. At least there will be something to wake up to tomorrow.

    Oh bullshit!  I know A LOT of people who probably would not survive a run in with the virus. Obviously, thats not a problem for you.

    And if you are no longer entertained -  - go away.

    Could you perhaps tone it down a little because you are losing my support.

    So what - go away.

    You see folks just like the 1964 earthquake  - - shit happens and life changes. Nairobi doesn’t want it to, you and I don’t want it to but life is changing, and changing fast.  It takes a maverick with a backbone to go against the grain and face the critics, the whiney, the naysayers and the selfish greedy bastards who care nothing for you or me.  I know Chris and Adam care about PEOPLE not about being perceived as right.  Because ultimately history will reflect their story as being right on target.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:26am

    PhilH

    PhilH

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 24 2010

    Posts: 166

    Davez Google Link is bad

    Getting an error message from google that the link does not exist.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:59am

    #69

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2409

    12+

    Ferguson Paper from Prepper Viewpoint

    Neil Ferguson Study --Implications for the Prepper

    Summarizing his basic ideas:

    (Ferguson uses several numbers (Ro, CFR, SCR) that are lower than many other estimates. I will include HIS groups numbers here.)

    • Suppression—measures that get R under 1.
    • Mitigation—measures that get R down somewhat, but not below 1.
    • Eventually, 80% of the population will be infected. 80% immunity brings R<1.
    • Rate limiting medical goal—the availability of staffed ICU bed/ventilators
    • 4.5% of infected will need hospitalization and 30% of those hospitalized will need ICU.  If no ICU beds available, a higher percentage of the 4.5% hospitalized will die.
    • Expected USA deaths without any interventions (an “unmitigated epidemic”) will have 0.9% deaths/population, or—2 million—but this figure does NOT account for the additional deaths resulting from an overwhelmed hospital system. With a non-functioning hospital system, deaths could rise to include most of the 4.5% of the infected needing hospitalization, or 10 million. (320M pop x 80% infected x 4% of infected die = 10 million)
    • Not included are the addition of temporary hospital bed capacity (FEMA hospital tents, Nat Guard medics, family as caregivers) or the subtraction of staffed hospital beds due to loss of docs, nurses, RTs and house keepers to the infection.

    Prepper related points

    Suppression NPIs stop the spread. Effective, temporary, draconian, very disruptive, but short term. Suppression includes the most draconian NPI measures of lockdowns of population centers (Wuhan Style), forced quarantine of the infected (prison “hospitals”).   However, when Suppression measures are lifted, if population is insufficiently immune, the contagion takes off again in another wave.

    Picture: Black is the unmitigated pandemic and green and red are the "second wave" after suppression NPIs are lifted.

     

    Intermittent mitigation strategy

    On and off pulses of NPI policies, triggered by the level of ICU beds availability. Goal is to keep ICUs functioning so that death rates closer to 1%, rather than 4%.   Allows herd immunity to grow naturally. How could you run a small business on this model? How would the food, fuel and equipment repair infrastructure hold up in this pulsed business environment? (Picture)

    The end points

    18-24 months or longer until effective vaccine is available, or 80% of population has met this virus and developed immunity naturally (not discussed by Ferguson, but also on the magnitude of 2 years).  They are not talking about “closing schools for a month.”  2 years!

    Businesses could start to get back to normal quickest with an unmitigated epidemic which would be fast, brutal and crushing.   The price would be ~10M deaths and a rapid natural immunity which would end it.

    My conclusions

    1) the magnitude of the social and economic disruptions of the NPIs, and 2) the duration of the needed NPIs could pose a risk to civilization itself.  I see great likelihood for totalitarian governance structures in the name of public health.

    A rural farm is looking pretty damn good right now.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:59am

    #70

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    6+

    OK lets take a breath please

    Tempers seem to be getting a bit high today. Did Adam allow Desogames to post again and I missed it?

    I am a writer, mostly fiction but some non-fiction too. Something I tell people, is that sometimes a position I throw out there isn't necessarily one I would personally advocate BUT it is one meant to get people thinking about other options or points of view.

    I think its completely appropriate to point out, we can't kill the companies which we will need to recover the economy from this, with punitive measure to punish wrong doing by executives. Its not just the c-suite that will get hurt, its all the workers and supply companies too.

    But I also think its appropriate that the taxpayers get the rewards for bailing these companies out. Issue special preferred stock in any company that gets bailed out, which has voting privileges and dividend rights. Nationalize their ownership if need be.

    Its going to be hard to claw back money made with stock buybacks because the executives will lawyer up and fight this until 2100. You fire them all you do lose some expertise you will need to get them up and running. Its something I don't know is an easy answer.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:10am

    #71

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 198

    2+

    Online Ecstatic Dance Opportunity

    Hi everyone,
    The ecstatic dance community across the country is working on creating online offerings.  The impediment right now is music streaming rights and some folks have already figured it out.  Here's a link to a class one of my dear friends produces:

    Ecstatic Soul Sessions

    It's a Facebook link.  They don't have a website.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:12am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 361

    2+

    To Ision the rebellious

    At the building of the Tower of Babble, the Empire State Bldg. of its time, G*d said that anything man could conceive of, he would do.  I think G*d really likes introverts.  Stopping the noise and just listen.  I do like logic and rational thinking, it's why we were given a brain-mind.  But we were also given a gut-mind and a heart-mind. When you run out of the liquid self medication and have stomped the stages of grief into dust, something will change.  I think you are blessed.  I think you will pass the test.  There are no atheists in fox holes.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:15am

    #73

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    7+

    Ision - Chris’s Actions Exemplifies Faith And So Do Yours

    “I have absolutely no faith at all.”

    Chris may not say,  “I have faith” just as you do not.  But that is not what I am saying.

    By taking time, putting in energy and stepping into the arena of public scrutiny - his actions say “I have faith”.  By that I mean he has faith that “WE” you, and I and long time members and new members and visitors are worth his efforts.  It is not common as it could be in todays world for someone’s endeavors to reflect that we are worth their time and effort.

    Ision you also post comments that help people, that shows you have some faith too, that we are worth your energy.

    So thank you Chris, Adam, Ision and all that contribute to our betterment.  Your actions are saying we, collectively, are worth the effort!  That is a form of Faith.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:27am

    #74
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1303

    12+

    AKGranny, what happened to the alternate points of view that you were advocating for

    You may disagree with what Nairobi is saying and I and others may also disagree with some things he has been saying but the man has been polite and informative and has responded to questions with detailed information presented in a very calm and rational manner.  Isn't that what we are seeking?  He is obviously intelligent, expresses himself well, and is presenting some alternative views that, I for one, would like to hear.  So please, be nicer, and don't tell him to go away.  That serves no purpose.  One doesn't learn in an echo chamber.  One learns by hearing a plurality of information from people of higher intelligence with differing views from your own.  Chris doesn't need you as an attack dog.  He has defended himself quite capably with facts and data and has more than proven himself in recent months and I'm sure will continue to do so.

    As for myself, I questioned his thesis when Chris claimed that this was the most important event occurring in his life time.  Although the deaths are still considerably beneath other events at the present time,  I fully concede that Chris was absolutely correct about this.  It is indeed the biggest event in his life time, in my life time, and in the life time of anyone here born after WW2.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:41am

    #75
    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 86

    Drugs for Covid-19 Treatment, Resource

    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treatment & Management

    COVID-19 Drug Therapy — Potential Options

    Also see:
    Study through NIH which began on 3/11/2020

    Comparison of Lopinavir/Ritonavir or Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Mild Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

    Potential Pipeline Medications May Help Patients with Novel Coronavirus

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:45am

    #76

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2+

    Coronavirus can survive up to 3 hours in aerosols and up to 3 days on some surfaces, peer-reviewed study finds

    Coronavirus can survive up to 3 hours in aerosols and up to 3 days on some surfaces, peer-reviewed study finds
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-can-survive-up-to-3-hours-in-aerosols-and-up-to-3-days-on-some-surfaces-peer-reviewed-study-finds-2020-03-18?mod=mw_latestnews

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:49am

    #77
    Gus Spreen

    Gus Spreen

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 14 2020

    Posts: 13

    Diamond Princess Analysis

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:50am

    #78
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 361

    Evolution (and History) in action

    I subscribe to the airline pilot's view of evolution: Long hours of boredom interspersed with moments of sheer terror.

    Agriculture changed everything.  Change or die.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:52am

    #79

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    Earthquake Hits Utah 5.7 Magnitude

    On top of everything

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/us/utah-earthquake/index.html

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 9:58am

    #80

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    15+

    I would like to call a time out please, AO, AK, Nairobi, ME (myself)

    We are wasting energy and I am to blame also...   We are a microcosm of everything around us, and like the guy at the shopping center who got incensed enough at me for not walking my cart back the cart stall that he pounded on my window (I am sure that I triggered him by being one of those who wear a mask), everybody is on edge.

    We need to be arguing about the data, and not each other's reactions to it.  Chris is a big boy and he can easily defend himself, though he doesn't need to since he explains his positions in such detail that he is always, effectively, defending his rationale.. isn't that why we come here?  Critical thinking, backed up with best available data.  Connecting dots that others may not have fully connected.

    I am as guilty as anyone for arguing points of minutia relative to the big picture.  AK, AO, and others.. we have been in the trenches of truth finding for a long time together.  I really appreciate all of you, and of course Chris and Adam too.  Best regards, Jim

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:01am

    #81
    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 125

    2+

    Evolution In Action...

    Kunga....

    We call this "Punctuated Equilibrium" in Evolution speak.   Natural selection, is always subject to disasters...such as asteroid impacts...which suddenly and dramatically alter things.

    Evolution has NO ARROW of progression..it may go in ANY direction.  Just think of a blob of mud...it goes where it can.  Same with Evolution.  No guiding hand, just mud flowing where gravity and force takes it.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:07am

    #82

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5+

    Something to do while you self quarantine

    Take a virtual tour of these 12 amazing museums.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/2020/03/17/museums-tour-virtually-closed-for-coronavirus/5067867002/

    Be a couch potato but be a well educated couch potato, lol.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:11am

    #83
    shimz

    shimz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 38

    1+

    Contagiousness

    First of all, huge thanks to everyone here for great information and interesting thoughts. Without those early warnings I am though stressed a lot more prepared than I would have been otherwise.

    This virus is clearly very contagious. There are clearly presymtomatic and even asymptomatic carriers. But what time frame are we talking about? WHO recommends finding contacts from 2 days before onset of symtoms. Is there any reason to doubt that? Is there any reason to assume people are contagious for the whole long incubation time?

    I just read an interview with a professor in clinical microbiology suggesting that the virus might be less contagious than what was previously believed. He says that peoplpe are usually contagious for from a few hours before onset of symtoms to 1-2 weeks later, being most contageous during the first week. (There are some that can fight off the infection so efficiently that they don't notice any symtoms.) In the case of superspreaders they seem to usually have a very high viral load in their nose. (Source: https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=7432242 )

    I am thinking of a situation where a lot of people are getting sick at the same time with a new and unknown disease, overcrowded hospitals, very ill people coughing all over the place, that's obviously a dangerous situation with an extremely high viral load affecting everyone around. I am not trying to diminish that. But. What if. What if the danger is lower when you don't have critically ill people coughing in the face of the doctors? I am thinking of viral load. The more virus you come in contact with, the worse your illness will become. If people who cough and sneeze avoid going out in public, do I really need aerosol protection in the supermarket? Or will 6 feet distance and good hand hygien do the trick?

    I am not trying to downplay the dangers. I am just trying to find som glimpses of hope in the darkness.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:14am

    #84
    karenchantal

    karenchantal

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 93

    6+

    Shout out to those at work

    I prepared for a quarantine....  But I thought I would get to stay home.  This is not the case.  I am at work, but I am not complaining.  People need to order stuff online because stores have run dry of goods in some places.

    My husband has to work, because he does weather at an airport.  Even if they shut the airport down, I imagine weather would still be a thing.  And air traffic control would still land cargo planes and private planes?

    Anyway, blessings to the cargo truck drivers, medical people, electricians, and people who can't slow down.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:17am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 125

    3+

    AKgranny...I Understand...

    I am fully aware of how "faith" works in our population.

    But, there are two kinds of "faith."   Faith in a good dog, for example, is completely different from any faith in an invisible, magical, being.

    Whereas, my kind of faith is dictated by direct experience with the known, I am forbidden any faith in the utterly incomprehensible.

    I try to help people here, or any place I post, in an effort to rectify thought towards Reason.  I have found Rational Though, applied to the actualized realization of any aspect of Existence, to be the only path of worthy of pursuit.

    I know I am in the minority.  But, I am simply forbidden from paying any attention to the purely arbitrary claim, or to the undefined and incomprehensible.

    I know the function of faith in the undefined, and I do not expect Humanity to abandon it.

    I appreciate your kind words and the intent of your wishes.

    Who am I to disallow what brings comfort to so many?

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:17am

    ckessel

    ckessel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2008

    Posts: 184

    5+

    Well said Jim

    Good job on reining in the emotions Jim. They will be running high as our belief systems become challenged.

    As an employer and someone who is trying to help all staff get ahead of the curve I had a very interesting experience this morning. I asked my secretary if she had bleach on hand and was aware of the 1% solution.  The response was quite remarkable in that she became really irritated and asked that I do not discuss, ask about or bring up her home preparedness issues. I was actually quite taken aback and after acknowledging her request, realized that since I had been discussing this for the last two months and knowing that her viewpoint is that this is nothing more than the flu, her belief systems have been trampled upon and she is doing the only thing she knows how. She has been unwilling to prepare since it "is no big thing and the communists are using it to control the west".

    She won't wear a mask even though I have a supply available. And so we work! Now I will have to solve my problem!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:22am

    tourcarve

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    2+

    Next-gen cruises

    "If the cruise industry does get a bailout my new meme will be to express my disbelief  to anyone who would choose to take a cruise.  We need to send a message… save them and screw us and we will boycott!  If enough people say “enough” we can make a difference."

    Granny - I'm with you in outrage, but my guess is that we will get cruises for people who have already had Honey Badger-19. All you need is a cheap, fast test for proof of exposure (antibodies), which my resident microbiologist tells me is easy enough.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:22am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    1+

    Thanks Ision

    I often invoke the concept of punctuated equilibrium... I think as a concept it's somewhere down the list, but not too far down from the exponential function in terms of things we don't tend to grok intuitively.  Our baseline seems to be linear thinking and normalcy bias.  As well, we have a technical name for the mud splatter which I think well channels the random nature of it;  Monte Carlo simulation.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:25am

    #89

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    9+

    Nope

    As a little girl I was instructed to “be nice”!  Well I ain’t a little girl anymore and always being nice gets one taken advantage of a makes them a doormat!  You big boys debate All The Time but little old Granny is supposed to “be nice”. Well f&@#%~|¥!:[email protected]?!(/)$&!

    Chris is busy.  Yes he is a big boy but a lot of visitors come here and I want to learn about whats  going on, they want to learn and it helps no-one to wade through a bitch party.

    It’s easy, way too easy for people to be arm chair critics.

    The goal is to help people, not be right, not be a critic.  I have had to harden my backbone to tolerate the slings and arrows of criticism here and I suspect if you’ll don’t like my opinion you’ll get over it.

    Annoyed Granny

    PS - besides it helps people to know that I passionately believe in and support Chris and Adam.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:38am

    #90
    Vilbas

    Vilbas

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 14 2014

    Posts: 32

    1+

    Vilbas said:

    It's pretty obvious that our government is not willing to spend the next 18 months with full on suppression efforts. They'll make some efforts here and there but since they can't solve the biology problem(vaccine) in a timely manner they will simply work on the PR and $ problems. They are absolutely not on board with full on suppression, which may not work anyway. Which, unfortunately, means they are more or less adopting the 'let it run its course quickly' approach. Wish they could just be honest. We could mount a serious war-time effort to ramp up medical staffing/supplies/etc. to fight the public health fiasco as best as possible but alas, they've dithered and that's not going to happen.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:41am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    5+

    Tourcarve! Those with immunity can carry on!

    LOL.. the idea of cruises for those with immunity is really fascinating and thought provoking.  Might a whole cottage industry of sorts not crop up around this idea?

    Once we have great confidence that we are over the hump and on our way to herd immunity with a functioning health care system, and IF we have drugs/supplements/interventions that are highly effective at lessening complications, might those of us who never got it want to now get infected under controlled conditions?  I am assuming here that very good intervention protocols appear well before a full blown, "cure" or vaccine.

    Should folks be free to rejoin regular society and full interaction once they display immunity and no viral shedding?  Is this how we accelerate the return to, "normal", keeping businesses and factories going?  Fascinating idea really that may have great utility.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:43am

    #92

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    2,629 Health workers infected in Italy

    4207 new cases and 475 new deaths in Italy1084 new recoveries were also reported today [source] [video]

     

    •  4207 new cases and 475 new deaths in Italy1084 new recoveries were also reported today [source] [video]
      • COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17 [source]

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:54am

    #93
    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 21

    1+

    Summer lull is a myth..

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/coronavirus-local-spread-beginning-off-africa-69645522

    Yeah, not looking good for a seasonal lull here either. Kenya, Nigeria, and Rwanda are equatorial. South Africa is in its summer now and things are only looking worse.

    Couple this with the plague of locusts wiping out all the domestic crop production and a lockdown on many ports, and Africa is looking at a very difficult year ahead. These conditions always lead to widespread violence.

    War and rumors of war alright.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 10:57am

    #94
    novacfp

    novacfp

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 09 2009

    Posts: 1

    Crude case mortality rates

    Despite all the questions about the proper case fatality rates, I've noticed that the global number has consistently run about 4% for at least a month, dividing deaths by cases diagnosed.  Of the first 12 countries on the list, only 1 (Germany) is still under 1%, and three more are between 1 and 2% (Spain, Switzerland, and the US).

    It might be useful to add another column to the daily chart, showing the simple mortality rate.

    The UK study assumed the rate is 0.9%, which seems to be way lower than the data supports.  It also uses an R0 of 2.2, if I remember correctly.  Further, they explicitly did not adjust the mortality figures for people who can't get into a hospital.  As bad as that study is, the reality may be much worse.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:03am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 361

    4+

    Hi, Ision

    I hope I live through the pandemic, because I really want to see what is going to happen with asteroid Apophis in the 2030s.  After that, I'll be waiting around for the coming wave of destruction from the gallactic core explosion heading our way.  Anti fragile is word of the day.  I believe in reincarnation and heaven so I am covered, whatever.  I would think introverts will really like heaven, it won't be very crowded.  🐱

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:07am

    MQ

    MQ

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2011

    Posts: 122

    1+

    cruise lines--bailout?

    I understood that there is only one US based line--NCL America's Pride of America--so why would we spend our(taxpayer)money to bail out the others?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:18am

    mweight01

    mweight01

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 29 2017

    Posts: 10

    9+

    its appropriate that the taxpayers get the rewards for bailing these companies out

    Uncle Sam should "lend" these companies the $, but with loans that are fully collateralized by all their recently repo stock and with the condition that the companies cannot issue more stock without gov't OK.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:21am

    tourcarve

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    2+

    Regarding "those with immunity carrying on"

    "Tourcarve! Those with immunity can carry on!

    LOL.. the idea of cruises for those with immunity is really fascinating and thought provoking.  Might a whole cottage industry of sorts not crop up around this idea?

    Once we have great confidence that we are over the hump and on our way to herd immunity with a functioning health care system, and IF we have drugs/supplements/interventions that are highly effective at lessening complications, might those of us who never got it want to now get infected under controlled conditions?  I am assuming here that very good intervention protocols appear well before a full blown, “cure” or vaccine.

    Should folks be free to rejoin regular society and full interaction once they display immunity and no viral shedding?  Is this how we accelerate the return to, “normal”, keeping businesses and factories going?  Fascinating idea really that may have great utility."

    Jim H - You are channelling my thoughts, point by point. I was going to write that it's going to be a different world, but then thought about all the people who are going to die on the way, of which I may be one, and was too sad.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:34am

    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 86

    The Second Wave, Covid 19

    I have been reading more on the " second wave" phenomenon.

    Apparently, the Spanish flu is called "Spanish" because, after the first wave of the global pandemic of flu in 1918, a second devastating wave 90 days later killed 8 million in Spain.

    I am paying attention to Biphasic reports in the illness-  People feeling like they turned the corner and then boom -seriously ill.  And people positive, then testing negative x 2 and getting ill again.  I anyone has any data on this, please share.

    Interesting->

    COVID- 19 Positive dog in China dies after being released ( concern is that on reinfection -catastrophic consequence)

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:43am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 361

    1+

    Dog with virus

    I do not think the little dog was infected.  It was just a carrier for it's master's disease.  A fomite, so to speak.  The poor thing was 19 yo.  Probably just succumbed to all the stress.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:53am

    MQ

    MQ

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2011

    Posts: 122

    In The Beginning...and afterward, too?

    So......are we to assume you are determined to keep this philosophy?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:55am

    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 125

    The Cycle Of Existence

    Kunga..

    We are all just bits of Existence, seeking to understand Existence.

    Eternal Life,

    Without the Prospect of Eternal Growth,

    Is Only a Ticket to Eternal Torment.

    Stagnation is Hell.

    As we approach Omniscience, there is less and less to discover, less and less room to grow...the closer we come to the point where growth becomes impossible.  Forced by the torment of non-growth..or stagnation..to always take the next step upon an ever narrowing path...we all seek the answer to the final question...and to do what we have never done before.

    The final Question?   It is always the same.  The final act?  The same.

    What is the one thing any GOD has never done?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 11:56am

    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 910

    Lung Damage Before Other Symptoms Like Cough and Fever!

    Must read: https://www.iaslc.org/Portals/0/Editorial%20(Carbone).pdf?ver=2020-03-02-221054-687  Dr Carbone is a friend of a friend who used to be at Uni Chicago.  Why is this info not being broadcasted???

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Mpup

    Mpup

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 01 2020

    Posts: 87

    1+

    Thanks to all for sharing good info

    Hello to all, a relative newcomer here.  I have been following since early January.  Thanks to Chris and this forum, against the advice of my financial advisor I re-allocated before the storm.  If our governments "reaction" is indicative of what is to follow, we are in for the "perfect storm"   They have been talking about testing for weeks but still not easily and readily available.    https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200317/ufrsquos-covid-19-positive-dental-student-treated-patients

    We are "prepared " if that's possible, and have a nice garden going.  I've had to laugh at the looks and snide comments from folks in town to my mask, gloves and booties.  My children are no longer laughing at the advice they paid no attention to.  Stores here are limiting purchases to 2 items  that are still available.  Hopefully we'll all get through this with our health.  The road to recovery will be long.   Keep the Faith.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:03pm

    Sabemenos

    Sabemenos

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 35

    6+

    Wondering about Chris’ reaction

    Chris, after years of sounding the alarm, how does it feel to see everything you warned about come true?   Are you just numb or do you have mixed emotions?  It must have been hard all those years to have so many people refuse to listen when all you were trying to do was help them.  And now?
    I know you’re super busy but if you can spare a moment to walk us through how you’re handling this, it might help many of us long time preppers. Thanks

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:06pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 445

    13+

    Arguements and core values

    With respect to Nairobi's post # 26 and the ensuing reactions, my perspective is that the root issue is differing core values. I sense from reading most of Nairobi's posts that his/her/their value system is not aligned with the values held by many of the people, especially long time members, who frequent this site.

    I don't think there is a person here who would dispute the need for businesses to continue to function. The key is how that happens, and how they are held accountable for their actions, or lack thereof. Yes businesses must be supported but they must be also given boundaries for what that support can be used for, and how it MUST first and foremost go to supporting the people, especially those who lost their jobs when these large corporations put shareholders ahead of employees. There is no integrity in this kind of pork barrel system.

    It strikes me that Nairobi has taken a position that is more or less to maintain the status quo of crony capitalism, whereas the majority here have long been advocating for an end to that. True capitalism, as practised by the majority of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are the true backbone of our first world economies, providing the jobs, services and products that make our communities work. The Boeing's of the world, and the Canadian version, Bombardier, are nothing more than corporate welfare bums who time and again have come cap in hand to the taxpayer for bailouts, and then blown that money on nefarious, selfish things with little if any return on investment to the taxpayers. Then something like this virus happens and the response is to ask for more. What unmitigated gall!! All the while SMEs and middle & lower classes struggle after being the first the feel the effects of production offshoring and all the financialization crap.

    I do not support Nairobi's position which I see as maintaining the status quo of bailout crap because it does not align with my core values, the most important being integrity. There are no halfway measures. A person, leader or organization cannot have a little integrity. Either you have it or you don't. I also have a much more egalitarian mindset, believing that how we treat and support each other is more important that the acquisition of monetary wealth. We are in this mess, health wise, financially and economically because so many have lost touch with their core values.

    My question for Nairobi is what are your core values? What matters most to you? How do you live your life? What does wealth mean to you? What does being a good member of society mean to you?

    I shall end with more words of wisdom from Brene Brown: Courage. Compassion. Connection. Those are the things that will sustain us. Courage to do and say the right things, to make the best possible decisions, no matter how hard or painful. Compassion as you go about your day to day life, for everyone, even the idiots who are buying the truck loads of TP. They are clearly having issues with their adjustment response and emotional resilience. Connect with family, friends and neighbours to support one another through this crisis. Those who are strong mentally and emotionally can help those who are not. Those who are creative can invent new things and activities for those who are quarantined. Those who are talented can give free lessons, readings, concerts, cooking classes, and so on. Use technology for all it is worth - and pray that the folks who keep our technology running do not all get quarantined!

    I agree that we need to have dissenting opinions so that we are not an echo chamber. From my experience on this site, sometimes it is not what is said, but how it is said. Perhaps this is a good time, when there is a heightened level of fear and emotions, to remember that. And also to remember that tone, inflection and intent are sometimes lost in the written word. We are an island of intelligent, civilized discourse in world full of the opposite. Let's make sure we stay that way.

    Stay well everyone, physically, mentally, emotionally.

    Jan

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:20pm

    LabCat

    LabCat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 45

    3+

    Imagine

    Imagine.

    The big boy airlines being forced to swallow their pride. Perhaps some will even fold, while others scale down dramatically.

    The same goes for the aircraft manufacturers.

    See, I remember when Boeing rigged a contract bid against Airbus. Airbus had won the contract fair and square only to have it snatched from their grasp and given to Boeing anyway.

    And what of the product that Boeing turned out? Problematic at best.

    What I envision when this is all over, is smaller, privately owned regional carriers like there used to be.

    Not subcontractors that work for the big boys. Stand alone small airlines.

    No more flying through Atlanta to get to Tennessee...from Mississippi.

    I am sick of cocksure suits, and knowingly smug kabuki bidding (and elections) where everyone knows the outcome before it happens.

    Except for us, the great unwashed.

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:22pm

    NorthElkhound

    NorthElkhound

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 35

    4+

    videos for free

    I checked my local library website and found out they have 30,000 videos available through some service they subscribe to. This will be a real blessing to many. So you might check online with your own library. At this point you can probably acquire a card online too, if you are not a  member.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:23pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    1+

    Kugs - interesting paper

    First off, I am hoping this version of the link is clickable.. because the version in your post is not;

    https://www.iaslc.org/Portals/0/Editorial%20(Carbone).pdf?ver=2020-03-02-221054-687

    I read the paper... I don't read the paper as being as dire in it's conclusion because both of the patients who were supposedly asymptomatic, yet showing ground glass opacities, were in fact already being treated for lung cancer.  We know that co-morbidities are a bitch when it comes to this virus.  My picture of what's happening is that for many, the immune system will fight this thing off before the lungs get so far involved.  I may be wrong, but I don't think this paper is basis enough to conclude that all of those with a healthy immune system will experience the same.

    Edit.. it's still not clickable.. the URL posting function here is not picking up the end.  To see the paper, you must copy and paste the link into your browser manually.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:25pm

    Torii

    Torii

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 35

    1+

    Full Pantry / Punk Eek

    First, the local fishwrap just this morning ran a cheerful article on stocking the pantry for 14 days without appearing to hoard supplies. That’s a whopping two weeks after DHHS reported the first case in North Carolina and almost two months after the first flare went up here at PP. Sigh...

    https://www.journalnow.com/entertainment/dining/how-to-grocery-shop-safely-and-how-to-stock-your/article_ec493277-f8e7-59e4-90be-d2ae82ae548e.html

     

    Also, NC now has 63 cases, up from 40 only yesterday.

    https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

     

    Finally, another shout-out to Stephen Jay Gould, who managed to make data accessible and even delightful to this quantitatively-challenged reader, in his Dinosaur in a Haystack (1995). He introduced me to “punk eek” and the right wall of baseball stats. We could use his scientific chops and good humor as we approach another right wall in this hour. Best to all!

    https://prelectur.stanford.edu/lecturers/gould/

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 12:26pm

    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 48

    Military possibly coming to NY first

    Interview 1526 – Jason Bermas on the #NYCLockdown

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:00pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 361

    3+

    Apologies to the board

    I realize this is not the place to have a life philosophy/faith debate with Ision or whoever.  I just couldn't help myself jingling his chain a bit.  My bad.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:06pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    Government thinks it's time to use the four letter "F Word"

    CNN
    FEMA mobilizes to respond to coronavirus pandemic
    FEMA, which is typically associated with natural disasters, is uniquely positioned to provide assistance as the federal agency called in for disaster relief. The ...
    2 hours ago
    KTLA
    FEMA prepares to respond to coronavirus pandemic
    As governors assess their states' needs and top health care officials warn of supply shortages, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is mapping out its ...
    9 hours ago

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:07pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    6+

    Allow me to be a broken record regarding Zn + Quercetin supplements

    I am not a doctor, but Dr. Seheult is, and his MedCram corona virus series should be required viewing for any self-directed corona virus truth seeker. Again, today, for about the fourth time, he is delving into how it is that chloroquine may benefit those fighting this virus.  Dr. S clearly thinks it may be all about Zn, and that is good enough for me.  Additionally, you might not need (prescription) chloroquine as quercetin, available at any health food store, has a similar ability to act as an ionophore for Zn.  Watch the video if interested.  Best regards, Jim

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25050823

    The ionophore activity of dietary polyphenols may underlay the raising of labile zinc levels triggered in cells by polyphenols and thus many of their biological actions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:08pm

    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1303

    1+

    this is what i've wondered

    http://theconversation.com/why-are-there-so-few-coronavirus-cases-in-russia-and-africa-133591

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:12pm

    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    1+

    US gov. doc. mirrors(?) Furgeson et al.

    Just saw this pop up in my news feed:

    • Pandemic “will last 18 months or longer,” leaked US gov’t report warns

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/us-govt-expects-18-month-pandemic-with-widespread-supply-shortages/?amp=1

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:24pm

    Barbara

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 172

    3+

    Government won't do the hard [political] work to suppress, unless local folks demand it

    I think you're right.  In the US and probably other western countries central governments don't have the backbone to keep restrictions in place long enough to prevent hospital swamping.

    I suspect local governments may do a bit better until their local economies crater and people leave for areas with no restrictions.

    As an older, higher risk person, I'm thinking I need to take care of myself without isolating on a farm.  I can work virtually and I can order stuff delivered.  I can keep my own garden going and probably start the food preservation (canning, freezing) that we did in the 60's.

    I think those of us at risk need to understand we'll have to protect ourselves medically by isolation/PPE for the foreseeable future.  Will be interesting to see in our obese, unhealthy US environment, will we discover many more people at risk?

    My bigger concern is that this is another way to transfer money from the bottom 90% to the top 0.1% by bailing out big corporations without limiting executive bonuses or giving their stock to the taxpayers.  Meanwhile hourly workers get unemployment, or even worse less hours and NO unemployment and small businesses get loans they can never pay back.  Gig economy workers find there are no gigs and they are not eligible for unemployment.  Bankruptcy for all but the uber-rich.

    Yes, retirement plans will suffer also if they are foolishly stock-heavy.  Unfortunately, cash-equivalents get no return and it's entirely possible that inflation will totally wipe out our cash assets.

    If, instead we have a depression, those with real assets AND a debt load will be under water.  More bankruptcies.  Small farmers are already in this situation, so I really worry about food.  Workers too sick to plant/harvest or worse and no testing so I can't tell if my workers are contaminated and will contaminate food and each other.

    The other issue is how to get healthcare for anything but COVID.  We can't spin up more healthcare workers quickly.  We can't protect medical facilities from contamination by symptomless carriers.  Looking at death rates from other health issues, we know the same people who are at risk for  Covid will need to come to medical facilities for non-virus care.  What do we do?

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:51pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 445

    7+

    Daily comic relief

    Martian TP

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 1:56pm

    skipr

    skipr

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 09 2016

    Posts: 192

    1+

    more viruses and QE?

    I just read about how satellite images over China has shown a significant reduction in air pollution.  That will definitely happen world wide soon if it hasn't already.  This will reduce the aerosols in the atmosphere which will significantly accelerate global warming.  Will this start the mass production of even more viruses?

    It's interesting that martial law is now being talked about.  Just before Bush2 handed things over to Obama, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was threatening martial law if he didn't get a bank bailout.  Then the Boston Marathon bombing got a nearly instantaneous response from the National Guard.  And don't forget about FEMA arriving in NYC the day before 911.  The big banks are now quietly trying to push through another (virus emergency) bailout/QE.  Has martial law and who knows what else been planned in advance?

    It's also interesting how Reagan's Assistant Treasury Secretary and father of trickle down economics is now talking about socialism:  https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/03/14/economic-effect-of-coronavirus-could-be-revolutionary/

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:04pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    Breaking: Senate approves CV relief w/paid sick leave, other benefits

    Senate Approves Relief Package to Provide Paid Sick Leave and Other Benefits

    "The Senate approved a relief package Wednesday to provide sick leave, unemployment benefits, free coronavirus testing, and food and medical aid to people impacted by the pandemic, sending it to President Trump, who is expected to sign it.
    The package passed by a vote of 90 to 8 after the majority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, urged conservatives who disapproved of it to “gag and vote for it anyway.”' (Source, NYT)

    A more detailed report below:

    Senate approves House-passed coronavirus relief measure

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-approves-house-passed-coronavirus-relief-measure/ar-BB11mM5c?ocid=spartanntp

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:07pm

    TreePlanter

    TreePlanter

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 31 2018

    Posts: 5

    2+

    Re: Ferguson paper (NPI effectiveness)

    Excellent analysis of the Ferguson paper.

    However, many people seem to not read his conclusion:
    "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
    social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
    profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
    stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently." [my bold]

    Epidemic suppression is what South Korea and Singapore and China have done.

    The "mitigation" option is the one where we let COVID run it's race with some hurdles to slow it down, and accepting that everyone will get ill.

    I also think that people misunderstand the "intermittent lockdown" method, which really has no time end. I find this the most unlikely scenario - that schools are closed 3 months, open 1 month, then closed again 3 months, forever.

    I hope we can get our act together and suppress/eradicate this beast.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:10pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    4+

    Nurses Letter Governor Cuomo

    Received this from my Sister-In-Law but did not have permission to display the names so have blanked them out.

    I just wrote this letter to Governor Cuomo, Health and Safty officer Geraldine Stellar, Congressman Zeldin, and Senators Gillibrand and Schumer, (you want to do your part? Call these people and advocate for PPE equipment for your healthcare professionals)

    My name is (name deleted) and I work as a nurse at (name deleted). I’m a union steward and received many calls and texts today about PPE and the LACK THERE OF.

    The most concerning call came about 30 minutes ago. I just received a call from a very upset nurse whom works in a critical care unit in the new pavilion. There are positive COvid patients whom are intubated on this unit. One of the patients went into ventricular tachycardia, a codeable rhythm. Normally, your staff, nurses and doctors, would come in the room to assist and evaluate, BUT NO ONE COULD COME IN THE ROOM TO HELP!

    I’ll repeat that: NO ONE COULD COME IN THE ROOM TO HELP! A normal code requires at least 4-5 people.

    WHY?

    There was not appropriate PPE available. The only N 95 masks available were being worn by the primary nurse and her orientee. There were NO face shields or protective eye gear available. The nursing office is only releasing N95 masks to the nurse caring for the patient, and no one else. How is this even possible? The nursing office was made aware of this situation and said the nurse had her mask. Thank God that the patient broke out of the rhythm.

    Further, the Assosciate Medical Officer was called and said there was nothing he could do. He said that the PPE is unavailable because we do not have any. I have listened to Governor Cuomo for the last several days say that there is equipment in reserve. We need it stat!

    Respectfully, we are not soldiers, we are nurses. I chose this profession to help others, not to sacrifice my life for my patient’s.

    Please help us,
    Name Deleted

    It seems this is just an example of the problems facing our healthcare providers.

    My prayers are with them as they are on the front lines of this battle.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:15pm

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

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    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 104

    1+

    While debating in parliament our Secretary of Health collapsed live on TV

    I'm not sure this was posted in another thread already

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:21pm

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

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    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 104

    1+

    media is funny

    His name is "Bruin", (=brown translated to english), so the comment was "something brown is sitting on the floor"

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:27pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    Vo Study

    Yeah, this article says that 66 asymptomatic cases were found and that 6 were still positive after 14 days when the study ended. I'm not sure what the number of deaths is, in Vo, but this does show 73% more cases than were officially notified (before the study began). As you suggest, TamHob, this does imply that the deadliness of this is nowhere near as light as the flu. I would think the true fatality rate is closer to 2% than to 1%. But we'll learn more as more people get afflicted.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:35pm

    Gus Spreen

    Gus Spreen

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    Joined: Feb 14 2020

    Posts: 13

    What is the Real Rate?

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:36pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1+

    Leaked US Gov't COVID-19 Response Plan (3/13/20)

    As released by the NYT:

    U . S. Government COVID - 19 Response Plan (3/13/20)

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:56pm

    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Joined: Jul 13 2014

    Posts: 158

    2+

    Doc visits by phone?

    We were delighted today that my husband's follow-up medical appointment could be carried out by phone.  It wasn't for anything new, just to follow up on a previous visit, and update a prescription.  He tried calling in ahead, and it turned out our family doc was happy to do it that way.  Saves the clinic more bodies sitting around, saves unnecessary potential infection.  It would have to be based on a long term medical relationship, but great if you can do it!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 2:56pm

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

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    Posts: 123

    2+

    Well said, Granny!

     

    G0od for you, Granny.  I am married to another granny with grit...I appreciate your spunk (an old word for us senior types ).  🙂

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 4:11pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    Chris' newest video, live now: "Coronavirus Lockdown! Now it Gets Tough!"(3/18/20)

    Coronavirus Lockdown! Now It Gets Tough (3/18/20)

    https://youtu.be/aRR2ot8CuM4

     

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 4:43pm

    nigel

    nigel

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    1+

    Nice post Bfelton

    The idea that we can build up herd immunity depends on the assumption that once infected we build up antibodies and can't be re-infected. Other corona virus antibodies can expire after a few months, and as Chris indicated, secondary infections of corona are definitely possible and may be worse the second time around.

    The strategy may be very flawed. I'm not a doctor, just pondering the same issue you raised, thought you might want to talk about it.

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:27pm

    centroid

    centroid

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    Posts: 77

    1+

    centroid said:

    Hi Chris, thanks for your great videos and actionable information. in australia you cant get a mask anywhere. i'm sure some people are hoarding. would it be better if there was a shortage, that they be rationed, even if people have to reuse?. also when you quote the prices of stocks and commodities and currencies, could you quote the price of the hardest most honest currency of them all : bitcoin

    thanks

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 5:41pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    4+

    Post #4 was written by a bot.. what happened to the, "report this post" button?

    It's not even a real person.. that's why it makes no sense.  duh...

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 6:14pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 445

    tried your link - not working

    Can you please re do the link so we can see this info, thanks!

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  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 8:35pm

    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 148

    same china

    Any one else find it strange that death and the severe case rate exactly the same? The odd's on that are very high,both are 3226 who made up these numbers?

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 3:25am

    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 151

    3+

    Starting to blow up now...

    My wife has now been told her entire 36 bed floor is now Virus dedicated. I expect all beds to be filled no later than Friday. A mash type unit has been set up in the parking lot. It is presumed to be for testing and can be converted quickly to another unit to handle more Virus patience. Barb had initially 12 patients. Of those there were tests taken on last Friday and Saturday. One came back negative and 6 are still waiting on results, 7 days later!!! This is horribly wrong, too long and amazes me. All swabs were sent to the CDC lab and have not been returned!?! I do not believe this can go on much longer without these positive patients (if they are positive) receiving life saving treatment. I hope this changes quickly. Lastly, until now I felt we could handle this as a family but, when you take the whole floor and turn it into only Virus cases then I'm not sure it is any longer a safe place. No heppa filters are being used. No masks are easily provided and I just think all the authority figures have fucked up in doing their jobs and planning properly. I just do not trust the doctors or upper management to tell us the truth. Already Doctors are saying we really don't need masks because it's a droplets problem not an aerosol problem. You have to understand me, I hate bullshit. I require the truth at all times and I get very concerned when my Lady is being treated in this manner. It's bullying and I can't or won't handle this well if it continues. If I asked Barb to leave the hospital I am positive half the staff would have grave concerns about staying there. They do know the issues and what their duty's are. Nurses are an amazing people but, they deserve the truth. We all do. Peace

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 3:52am

    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 151

    ????

    I'm very sorry but I'm engaged, fully focused and I have not a clue what you are saying. I'm sure you have a message to send but I couldn't understand at all what that message was/is. Please, in common language what it is you wanted to share. Thank you

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 4:00am

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 800

    2+

    Lung Damage Study...Journal Pre-Proof

    Journal Pre-proof
    Editorial: Coronaviruses: Facts, Myths and Hypotheses.
    Michele Carbone, M.D., Ph.D., Joshua B. Green, M.D, Enrico M. Bucci, Ph.D, John J. Lednicky
    PII:
    DOI: Reference:
    To appear in:
    Received Date: Accepted Date:
    S1556-0864(20)30190-8
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtho.2020.02.024
    JTHO 1742
    Journal of Thoracic Oncology
    27 February 2020 28 February 2020
    Please cite this article as: Carbone M, Green JB, Bucci EM, Lednicky JJ, Editorial: Coronaviruses: Facts, Myths and Hypotheses., Journal of Thoracic Oncology (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.jtho.2020.02.024.
    This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published
    in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
    © 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

    Editorial: Coronaviruses: Facts, Myths and Hypotheses.
    1* 2 3
    Michele Carbone M.D., Ph.D., Joshua B. Green , M.D., Enrico M. Bucci , Ph.D., and John J
    4 Lednicky .
    1. Thoracic Oncology, University of Hawaii Cancer Center and Department of Pathology JABSOM Medical School Hawaii, Honolulu HI USA
    2. Lt Governor, State of Hawaii, USA
    3. Sbarro Institute for Cancer research and Molecular Medicine, Temple University,
    Philadelphia PA USA
    4. Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health, University of
    Florida, USA
    *Correspondence:
    Michele Carbone, MD, PhD
    University of Hawai'i Cancer Center 701 Ilalo St.
    4R Room 437
    Honolulu, HI 96813
    UNITED STATES +1-808-440-4596 [email protected]
    DISCLOSURE: The Authors do not have any conflict of interest to declare related to topics discussed in this article. For full disclosure, the co-authors report the following funding sources: M.C. report grants from the National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, the US Department of Defense, and the UH Foundation through donations to support research on “Pathogenesis of Malignant Mesothelioma” from Honeywell International Inc, Riviera United 4a Cure, and the Maurice and Joanna Sullivan Family Foundation. M.C. has a patent issued for BAP1. M.C has a patent issued for “Using AntiHMGB1 Monoclonal Antibody or other HMGB1 Antibodies as a Novel Mesothelioma Therapeutic Strategy,” and a patent issued for “HMGB1 As a Biomarker for Asbestos Exposure and Mesothelioma Early Detection”. M.C. is a boardcertified pathologist who provides consultation for mesothelioma expertise and diagnosis.

    1
    In this issue of JTO, Tian, et al. , provide the first description of early pathology of coronavirus
    disease-2019 (COVID-19). As of today, Feb 26, 2020, there have been over 78,000 confirmed cases, and over 2,500 deaths in China, based on the official figure by the National Health Commission of China. Infections are rapidly spreading in the US, Europe, South Korea, Iran and other countries. Coronavirus disease-2019 has already caused havoc to travel and global markets and has the potential to become a devastating disease in China and globally. It is important to realize, however, that since we are in the early stages of this outbreak, many data are incomplete and some are unreliable.
    In this early stage of the outbreak, the rate of positivity outside China is influenced mainly by two factors: 1) whether the city or country has a large Chinese community or is visited by large number of Chinese tourists, and 2) by the number of tests conducted. For example, among European countries, Italy has performed a high number of tests for SARS-CoV-2 which is the virus that causes COVID-19: as of February 26, of 9,587 individuals tested, 400 were positive for SARS-CoV-2, and are currently being retested to verify the results. Not surprisingly, Italy has a much higher number of positive cases than France, which tested less than 500/18 positive, Germany which tested a few hundred/19 positive, etc. Even within Italy there are major discrepancies: the press reported that infections are almost exclusively occurring in the regions of Lombardia and Veneto. A review of the data revealed that as of Feb 26, 2020, Lombardia had tested 3,208 individuals mostly with flu-like and upper respiratory symptoms and 258 were positive; Veneto had tested 4,900 and 71 were positive. In contrast, the Center/South of Italy, regions of Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise and Sardinia, together, had tested a total of 27 people: none was positive. In other words, the more tests are performed, the more individuals are found positive for SARS CoV-2; and obviously, unless people are tested, SARS CoV-2 infections cannot be identified (Figure 1). It is clear from these numbers that it makes little sense to restrict travel to those from Lombardia and Veneto –who now are prohibited from entering several foreign countries- while allowing Italians from other regions, where only few or no tests were performed, to travel. The same argument applies to other European countries
    th
    only 426 For example, Hawaii, a state with a large Chinese community and
    where testing has been minimal, and applies also to the US, where, as of February, 25
    2
    patients had been tested.
    large numbers of tourists from China, is presumed to be free of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The problem is that nobody has been tested as of February 26 in Hawaii! We can predict that in the coming weeks we will have to rethink much of what we heard about the spread of this disease.
    Another problem is that the diagnosis for SARS CoV-2 infection is currently largely based on RT-PCR, and unfortunately it is unreliable because of a high rate of false negative and some false positive results especially in places that perform this test in large numbers, as for example during the Hubei crisis. In that context, the sensitivity of the PCR assay has been found largely
    3
    The main reason for false negative results has been traced to faulty science in the design of some PCR kits, connected to their production and standardization under pressure from the burgeoning
    inferior to that of a chest CT.

    4 epidemics.FaultyPCRtestshavebeenconnectedtosevereunder-detectionratesinChina and
    5
    Another reason for false negatives is that the swab used to collect the sample needs to reach the deeper pharynx, which is a delicate procedure: when many patients are in line for a test and there is pressure to hurry up, it is easy to miss. PCR-negative patients are sent home and they infect more people. False positives are also common in these circumstances, because tests are performed in hospitals with a fairly large number of patients, thus in environments with high viral load: PCR being a sensitive test, it can easily produce false positive results . However, if the test is performed with a correct set of primers, and in “ideal” conditions, which means not in
    6
    ELISA assays, which since last week became available in China and elsewhere, are much more
    7
    reliableandsensitive andshouldhopefullysoonreplaceRT-PCRtesting.Fortunately,about
    80% of infected patients require no specific treatment, the disease for them is mild, like a
    common flu. Treatment is at the moment symptomatic, there is no scientific evidence that any
    specific antiviral drug works better than others – albeit several clinical trials show some
    promising results for a few compounds. By far, most people who develop a serious disease are
    over 70 years old. Among them, cancer patients are at particularly high risk because they are
    immune-depressed. Cancer patients are also more likely to develop a more aggressive disease
    8
    Why do patients die? Prior to this report, there had not been any data describing the early anatomic pathology lesions of this disease. This dearth of pathology description made it difficult to understand the pathogenesis of COVID-19. Therefore, for prevention, infection control, and treatment, we rely on current knowledge of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which is caused by SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Justification for these practices stems from the genetic similarity of SARS CoV to SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and to similarities in the clinical presentations of the illnesses caused by these viruses.
    When did COVID-19 emerge? The emergence of a coronavirus not previously detected in humans was first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China. By the time the Chinese government decided to forbid residents to travel, about 5 million of the 14 million residents had already left Wuhan because of the Chinese New Year’ holidays, and because of a last minute wave of “exodus” which occurred as citizens fled Wuhan just before the “lockdown” of the city became effective at 10 am, 23 January, 2020. According to official reports from the
    9 Chinesegovernment,andtopeer-reviewedmanuscriptpublishedinthepastfewdays, the
    disease first manifested in early December when a small number of cases started to occur. The disease was characterized by fever, dry cough and dyspnea. Tests for all known respiratory tract pathogens were negative.
    were identified also in the US.
    a hurry, not in an environment where there are many carriers, then it is probably reliable.
    and die of it.

    Since then, we have learned that this disease causes death in a significant number of patients,
    8 particularlytheelderlyandincancerpatients. InChinathecasefatalityrate(CFR:ratioof
    deaths for the total number of people diagnosed with this disease) has been between 2-3%, although it has been as high as 4.6% in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. The cause of death among infected patients is respiratory failure. Patients show greatly impaired respiratory function, and they “supposedly” suffer alveolar damage, as even assisted oxygenation and
    1 intubationdoesnotsavetheirlives.However,untilthepublicationofthisreport inJTO,wedid
    not know the underlying pathological changes responsible for the respiratory failure in these patients. Anatomic pathology studies of lung biopsy material have not been performed because they are not necessary to make the diagnosis. Autopsies were prohibited in China for fear that those performing the autopsy could become infected. Only recently the Chinese government allowed autopsies to be performed in P3-biosafety level facilities - P3-suites for autopsy are not available in Wuhan. The first report of a postmortem biopsy in a single patient who died of
    10 1
    COVID-19 was published a few days ago , after the paper by Tian et al. , had been submitted to
    JTO. These two papers allow us to see how the diseases develops and progresses.
    1
    ThepaperbyTianetal. wasaresultofaninternationalcollaborationbetweentheseniorauthor,
    Dr. Xiao, a Professor at the University of Chicago, US, who also works several months of the year at Wuhan University where he Chairs the department of Pathology, and his colleagues in Wuhan. Dr. Xiao was in Wuhan when the city found itself at the center of an epidemic, and the hospitals were suddenly hit with an overwhelming number of patients, many of them severely ill: healthcare authorities and workers scrambled to offer as much care as possible to those who needed it, several of them got infected and died of COVID-19. To overcome the problem that it was prohibited to conduct autopsies, biopsies were not taken, and therefore nothing was known about the anatomical pathology changes that occurred during this diseases, Dr. Xiao and collaborators hypothesized that the infectious rate was so high that some of the patients who were hospitalized for other diseases likely had a superimposed SARS CoV-2 infection. By reviewing the clinical records of patients hospitalized there during the months of December 2019 and January 2020, the authors identified two patients who had undergone lobectomies to remove early stage lung cancers with ground-glass opacities in their lungs, a characteristic radiological finding in COVID-19 infected patients. In addition, RT-PCR tests were performed for these patients which verified the infection. The pathologic lesions identified in these patients and
    1
    described in their report , represent the early pathological changes, as they were detected before
    the patients developed any clinical symptoms related to COVID-19. Both patients eventually became severely ill and one of them died of respiratory failure.
    To a certain degree, observing early phase pathologic changes is more relevant than findings from autopsies, because the latter only offer a “glimpse” of the picture in the very end of the disease process. Therefore, this report showing the pathology in the lungs of two pre- symptomatic patients, allows us, for the first time, to see the pathology of this disease at its earliest stages and understand the pathophysiology of SARS CoV-2 infection.

    In these pre-symptomatic SARS CoV-2-infected lungs, Xiao and colleagues observed edema
    1
    withproteinaceousexudates. Thehighqualityfiguresshowpatchychangesoffibrinplugs
    mixed with macrophages and other inflammatory cells. In one of the two cases, abundant intra- alveolar pulmonary macrophages are present. The alveolar walls or septa are expanded by proliferating fibroblasts with parallel type II pneumocyte hyperplasia. There is no significant neutrophilic exudation or infiltration, in keeping with a viral infection. There are no hyaline
    10
    membrane formations at this early stage –which were instead found at autopsy . However,
    fibroblastic plugs have formed albeit focally, even in this early phase of the disease. These findings indicate that there is progressive consolidation of the lung, which is ultimately the cause of respiratory failure and death. Lung consolidation is not caused by the accumulation of granulocytes and fibrin, but rather by intra-alveolar organization and fibrosis. Therefore, since the respiratory surface of the lung is obliterated, these patients can no longer respond to
    1
    intubation and oxygen therapy: this is why they die. From this important report , we learn that
    the virus can establish infection in the lungs where it produces tissue injury well before producing symptoms, including dry cough and fever that occur later on. At this early stage, the only clue of SARS CoV-2 infection is imaging showing ground glass opacities in the periphery of the lung. These imaging findings are of particular relevance to identify infected individuals, in light of the evidence for viral spreading by asymptomatic patients including by individuals which
    11
    may test PCR-negative for SARS CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract . Therefore, presently,
    any patient with round glass opacities in the lungs should undergo SARS CoV-2 testing.
    The lesions usually start in the peripheral lung zones close to the pleura, as single or multifocal ground glass opacities. Only when the lesions become more intense or expand do patients develop symptoms. Often, the first symptom is a dry cough. Most patients recover. However, some experience disease progression and their lungs contain large areas of consolidations, at which point there is severe loss of function leading to respiratory failure.
    This important work helps us understand the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and to be better prepared to identify potentially infected patients. This work is the result of an international collaboration among a highly trained US pathologist, Dr. Xiao, who had studied hantavirus infections, West Nile virus disease for many years, and who is presently a senior diagnostic pathologist at the University of Chicago. Dr. Xiao’s experience allowed him to coordinate a team of pathologists and clinicians to circumvent the problem that autopsies were not allowed, biopsies were not necessary, and yet the world needed to know more about the pathology of this disease to be prepared to face this epidemic. In the end the outcome of the study will benefit medicine and patients throughout the world, underscoring the value of team-work and international collaborations in medical research.
    Figure Legend. As of February 26, the number of cases detected in different Italian regions is proportional to the number of PCR tests performed. By sampling people in direct contact with

    infected individuals, 1 in 12 tested positive. The Veneto region is an outlier, possibly due to testing on a larger population, not restricted to direct contacts of infected individuals. As the number of tests will increase, so will the slope of the represented line, due to the expected decrease of the percentage of positive tests. Note that presently, due to the relatively limited data, the curve’s fit is strongly dependent on the position of a few points.

    References
    1. Tian S, Hu W, Niu L, Liu H, Xu H, Xiao S-Y, Pulmonary pathology of early phase 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia in two patients with lung cancer, Journal of Thoracic Oncology (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtho.2020.02.010.
    2. McCullough M. Coronavirus will spread in the U.S., CDC warns, and there might not be enough testing capacity to detect it. The Philadelphia Inquirer. Feb 25, 2020.
    3. Ai T, Yang Z, Hou H, et al. Correlation of Chest CT and RT-PCR Testing in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A Report of 1014 Cases. Radiology. 2020;0(0):200642.
    4. Yanfeng P. Nucleic acid testing is inaccurate. Caixin. Feb 17, 2020.
    5. Grady D. Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States Are Flawed, C.D.C. Says. The New York
    Times. Feb 12, 2020.
    6. Corman VM, Landt O, Kaiser M, et al. Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-
    nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(3).
    7. Zhang W, Du RH, Li B, et al. Molecular and serological investigation of 2019-nCoV
    infected patients: implication of multiple shedding routes. Emerg Microbes Infect.
    2020;9(1):386-389.
    8. Liang W, Guan W, Chen R, et al. Cancer patients in SARS-CoV-2 infection: a
    nationwide analysis in China. Lancet Oncol. 2020.
    9. Cohen J. Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally.
    Science. Jan 26, 2020.
    10. Xu Z, Shi L, Wang Y, et al. Pathological findings of COVID-19 associated with acute
    respiratory distress syndrome. Lancet Respir Med. 2020.
    11. Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T, et al. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19.
    JAMA. 2020.

    As of February, 26th, the number of cases detected in those Italian regions where the contagion expanded is proportional to the number of PCR tests performed. By sampling people in direct contact with infected individuals, 1 in 12 tested positive. The Veneto region is an outlier, possibly due to testing on a larger population, not restricted to direct contacts of infected individuals. As the number of tests will increase, so will the slope of the represented line, due to the expected decrease of the percentage of positive tests. Please also consider that, as of now, the fitting is strongly dependent by the position of few points.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 4:29am

    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 48

    1+

    Reminder from my employer

    Received this letter yesterday

    " DISASTER SERVICE WORKERS

    AS a _____ employee, before you entered upon the duties of your employment; you took and subscribed to the oath or affirmation; As such, all _____ employees are disaster service workers.  You may be called upon as a disaster service worker in the event of an emergency.

    The _____ Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has been activated to manage the COVID-19 emergency.  _____ declared a local emergency on March _, 2020.  Disaster Service Workers (DSW) are needed to perform general duties such as clerical support at the Call Center and other activities.  Employees are being called to assist as disaster service workers, you are required to work; you are a Public Servant for _____ and this is to be your priority."

    Believe me, I want to help all I can.  But I also took an oath to my wife.  Wife and kids are "to be my priority."

    Guess they skipped asking for volunteers this time.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 5:12am

    eternal sunshine

    eternal sunshine

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 24 2008

    Posts: 13

    1+

    Interpreting the final graph in ferguson report

    If anyone can help me here I'd be very grateful

    The final graph seems to indicate that implementing the the most stringent NPI's results in poor outcomes down the line. Implementing all the NPI's leads to a similar curve (green line) to the 'Do nothing' approach, only delayed to November.

    The orange line reflects less NPI's being implemented - e.g. schools remain open, and the curve is flattened and peaks in around Nov/Dec

    Q1 Does this mean that the UK govmt was correct in trying to avoid school closures, and that as a result of changing policy and closing schools from this week, we risk arriving at the same outcome as the do nothing approach, rather than flattening the curve as per the orange line?

    Q2 I can see that delaying the mass deaths by a few months will allow precious time to manufacture more ventilators etc and increase the preparedness of the medical services, but if we are now following the green line then was there not an argument to take the pain early and avoid some of the economic destruction?

     

     

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 5:53am

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    1+

    Still not seeing the numbers

    As bad as this virus seems to be, I'm still not seeing the numbers of critically ill that the MSM and all everyone else who wants to whip this into a frenzy. Easy to manipulate numbers and lie and create total bullshit when it is in some foreign country. But when it is in your own facility it's harder to mislead. There will be many how die from this who are at risk, for the rest of us, we will be just fine. In the meantime, we just turned this nation into a third world country that just gave away our freedoms (what little we have left) and have a currency that is totally done. It's one thing to be prepared, it's another to fan the flames to give the government the power to take away the rights given to us by our constitution. Our founding fathers would be appalled by the lack of common sense and character that represents most American's.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:06am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2409

    5+

    planfortomorrow --trust yourself ---take the next step, reach a clear conclusion, act on what you know

    planfortomorrow wrote about his wife, a nurse, working on a COVID unit in the hospital:

    .... Lastly, until now I felt we could handle this as a family but, when you take the whole floor and turn it into only Virus cases then I’m not sure it is any longer a safe place. No heppa filters are being used. No masks are easily provided and I just think all the authority figures have fucked up in doing their jobs and planning properly. I just do not trust the doctors or upper management to tell us the truth. Already Doctors are saying we really don’t need masks because it’s a droplets problem not an aerosol problem. You have to understand me, I hate bullshit.....

    Please continue with your thought process. Take the next step by becoming certain of your conclusions.  (You have the information you need, now be certain.)

    Your wife is working in a dangerous environment with inadequate protection.  It sounds like you already know this.   You have the information.   Please become certain of this so that you can act.

    In Italy, 26% of HCW are now infected (and the figures will grow in the next weeks as more become symptomatic).  HCW being exposed to SARS2 is a very high risk job unless very effective protective gear and the procedures for its use are in place. Excellent PPE gear is NOT AVAILABLE on most units of most American Hospitals at this time.  Furthermore, on most units, hospital workflow procedures are not currently engineered for effective use of the PPE.  -----  Frequent trips are required from the bedside to the computer workstation to chart, check orders, use the telephone, then returning to the patients bedside.  You can't wear PPE at the computer workstation so you must remove it, then put it back on when returning to the bedside.  (The act of removing contaminated PPE is the most dangerous point in the process.)   And we are already certain that SARS2 floats in the air on ultra-fine droplets.

    HCWs (and first responders) are given the assignment of holding society's structures together.  However, their lives are not valued very highly.  Kind of like soldiers tasked with achieving an objective-- "it is OK with us if you are killed."  We will put a wreath on your grave and honor your bravery.  Thank you for your service.

    TPTB are hoping that the workers will be a

    1. little bit stupid (i.e.,  unwilling to independently gather information and think for themselves),
    2. idealistic (dedicated to professional ideals--willing to give their lives for professional ideals) and
    3. lack the independence of mind needed break away from the herd and act on their own individual conclusions.

    Please call bullsh*t and protect your wife.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:23am

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    yep, aerosol problem not droplet

    Sounds like her facility doesn't have equipment so she's SOL. If she doesn't have health problems she should be fine if she get's it, if not, it's sure is something that I wouldn't want. Patient's that I've taken care of were in proper precautions, negative pressure room and I used PPR instead of mask, I'm not to fond of mask. I'll likely get the virus from someone that isn't under precautions yet, but I'm not to worried cause I haven't had issues with any viral infection that came my way. Best of wishes.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:35am

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

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    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

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    Facilities don't have proper ventilation systems

    Almost all medical facilities have very few rooms dedicated to negative pressure. Kinda doesn't matter if you have PPE when rooms are not designed for negative pressure. The virus will be floating everywhere, whether we like it or not. The last time this kind of outbreak happened, patient's were taken care of outside, Spanish flu. This is why cruise ships can be one of the worst places to be cause that is just circulated among all rooms.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:36am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    2+

    Great Response Sand Puppy

    Plantfortomorrow - the question - is your wife willing to risk and give her life for her patients.  What about her children, parents and husband?

    None of this should be an issue but until the activities of HCW is constructed to protect them and their patients the system will teeter on collapse.  The priority of profit over people can now be clearly seen in the short comings of the system.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:58am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    1+

    Eternal sunshine

    Q1 Does this mean that the UK govmt was correct in trying to avoid school closures, and that as a result of changing policy and closing schools from this week, we risk arriving at the same outcome as the do nothing approach, rather than flattening the curve as per the orange line?

    Q2 I can see that delaying the mass deaths by a few months will allow precious time to manufacture more ventilators etc and increase the preparedness of the medical services, but if we are now following the green line then was there not an argument to take the pain early and avoid some of the economic destruction?

    Just throwing a few thoughts out there to be considered.

    If, the decision was made to NOT flatten the curve we run the risk that too many people in critical ares could be affected at the same time.  Consider

    • Water treatment plants need people to test and treat water with appropriate chemicals to make potable water for society.
    • Electric companies need engineers, linemen, computer people to keep our electric on.
    • Sewer treatment plants need to continue to run and
    • Communication companies
    • Nuclear power plants
    • Hydro - Electric plants

    If too many workers in the same place get sick risks and accidents increase.  So it makes sense to slow the rate of  infection.

    Saving people, I am sure is much lower on the list of priorities.

    Good questions.

    AKGranny

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 1:25pm

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    ain't gonna happen

    This virus is gonna have the same impact as H1N1. I don't see it being worse than that. There will be many dead and scarring of lungs and other complications from it but it will be those that have underlying health problems that make them susceptible to viral infections. This virus is getting way overblown, and the overreaction is having major financial implications more than the virus itself.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 3:42pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    1+

    Overblown?

    I hope you're right, borderpatrol, but the case fatality rate from Covid-19 appears to be much higher than H1N1 (which, I think, was about 0.2%), possibly as high as 1.2% and maybe more. If there is good data which shows this is overblown, that would be fantastic.

    By the way, you don't have to have underlying health problems to die from Covid-19. I've heard, for example, of someone ultra fit, who runs marathons, dying from it. It may be more deadly for those with poor health but don't think it's confined to those people.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 4:27pm

    jmone

    jmone

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    Joined: Feb 28 2020

    Posts: 232

    1+

    jmone said:

    Here is a graph showing the infection and death rate between COVID-19 and H1N1 on the same timeline.  COVID is both spreading faster and killing a lot more than H1N1.  This is what is scaring the authorities.

     

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 6:08pm

    vshelford

    vshelford

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 13 2014

    Posts: 158

    1+

    Masks, aerosol spreading, and the "offiicial line"

    I can't believe I am still hearing, both from local doctors and "experts" on the evening news, that CoV19 is not spread by aerosol, and that masks are "dangerous" because they'll encourage us to touch our faces.  Have I missed something? I thought masks made a huge difference in Hong Kong, both to limiting C19 and the seasonal flu. And if they are lying because there aren't enough masks - why?  The 2-metre distance rule would protect people anyway, wouldn't it?  Or maybe not -- maybe it spreads further and there's really no protection except staying isolated as much as possible.  If any of the medical people around here could point me to references I could use to support the aerosol spreading information, I'd really appreciate it.  Or has further research refuted it?  Sorry - really confused.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 7:17pm

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

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    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    1+

    I hope so too

    The problem I have is getting data that I trust. I don't know about you, but I have very little trust in media reporting anymore. From the Gulf of Tonkin, to the First Gulf War, Second Gulf War, War in Afghanistan, Operation Galdio, Operation Ajax, Operation Phoenix, Iran Contra, 2007 bank bailout, etc, there is zero accountability in accuracy in propaganda coming from MSM. I worked thru H1N1, and every patient that ended up on mech vent had a co-exiting condition that affected their ability to fight the virus. I did not see one, period, let me repeat that, not ONE healthy person on the vent from the flu, and still don't. I guess when see normal healthy patients that end on the vent I will change my mind. But after more than twenty years of doing this, I tend to be a bit skeptical, and righteously so. So hear is some data that I can trust. From South Korea, maybe they have learned to play the propaganda game. Sure there might be that outlier that passes away from this virus, but how many people end up dead from opioid overdoses, don't see any panic from that. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 7:39pm

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    1+

    hears one that might help

    Less likely to get infected via aerosolized medium. Hope this article helps.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 7:43pm

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2017

    Posts: 65

    1+

    Don't know if I can trust the data.

    I see patients all in time with the flu that are very sick. Seen it with H1N1 also, I will trust this data more six months from now after the wave goes thru, till then, I am skeptical.

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  • Thu, Mar 19, 2020 - 8:45pm

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 309

    2+

    Opioid deaths

    >> how many people end up dead from opioid overdoses, don’t see any panic from that.

    If opioid overdoses were contagious and doubling every few days, they too would trigger panic at some point.

    Panic isn't helpful, but sometimes fear is legitimate.

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