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    New Research Suggests The Coronavirus May Be Far Worse Than We Thought

    It can spread as an aerosol?!?
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, February 9, 2020, 6:59 PM

Chinese officials are now warning that the Wuhan coronavirus may spread by aerosol transmission.

We have known it spreads via fomites contained within mucus-based globules, spread by coughing, sneezing, etc.

But if it also transmits from human to human via aerosol means, it’s likely FAR more contagious than previously feared:

Many of the most contagious diseases, like measles, spread as aerosols  — tiny particles that hang in the air for a protracted time.

If confirmed, this makes a very bad situation substantially worse.

And adding to the hit parade of bad news, recent research shows that coronavirus particles can survive on surfaces for up to 5-9 days. At least, the good news is that chlorine-based cleaners (like simple bleach) appear effective at killing the virus within 1 minute.

So, again, good hygiene practices are our best defense here. Avoid exposure. When in public areas, protect your eyes/nose/mouth/skin. And sanitize often.

Meanwhile, the data shows the virus continues to spread around the world. And we continue to see more indirect evidence that the infected and fatality data out of China may be much higher than what’s being officially reported.

Folks, this virus is a beast.

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147 Comments

  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:25pm

    #1
    Mr Curious

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    It makes one wonder how bad the numbers have to get here in the west before it’s no longer driven mostly by money considerations. At some tipping point, greed turns to fear. Hopefully the numbers will all just kind of just peter out over here. How long will it take to know for sure, another month?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:46pm

    #2
    Galway87

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    Outside China

    Why has coronavirus been so slow to spread outside China?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:48pm

    #3
    Galway87

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    Deaths outside China

    Still only two confirmed deaths outside China.  If the coronary is as contagious and deadly as advertised, how are there only two deaths so far?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:51pm

    #4
    Tom Sammy

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    Risk analysis of Ncov spread in and outside of China - Lunar new year

    Interesting risk analysis of how travel for Chinese  lunar new year may have exacerbated spread of Ncov.  Hundreds of millions travel during this time.

    https://www.worldpop.org/resources/docs/china/WorldPop-coronavirus-spread-risk-analysis-v1-25Jan.pdf

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:02pm

    Reply to #3
    Mr Curious

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    outside china

    James, hopefully we could agree that a low number of deaths in the rest of the world is a good thing, right? I wouldn’t call the rate of transmission and the reports of symptoms advertisements, but rather the best estimates that people can come up with so far from the pool of data available. My personal feeling is that there are likely more cases on the street that have been reported, even here in the US, because the early incubation tends to be mild and a lot of cases are likely just incubating right now. Also, for reasons I don’t understand the testing seems to be excruciatingly slow. I read somewhere today that Africa didn’t even get a test kit until today, so I’m guessing there are cases over there that have not been reported.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:22pm

    #5
    robbie

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    Unprepared?

    “Perhaps the most valuable result of all education is the ability to make yourself to do the thing you have to do when it ought to be done whether you like it or not. It is the first lesson that ought to be learned and however early a person’s training begins, it is probably the last lesson a person learns thoroughly”

    Thomas Huxley

    British biologist

     

     

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:22pm

    Reply to #3
    Tom Sammy

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    Slow spread and deaths outside of China

    I don’t think we have all the data to answer these questions effectively now.

    Here are some thoughts:

    It has been theorized that Wuhan/Hubei province had Ncov Activity as early as December or even November (no one knows exact start date).  Therefore this region could have had a 2-3 month head start in terms of transmission cycles.  Early Lack of education and awareness coupled with limited prevention measures likely contributed to the fast spread originally.  Conversely, later on other regions better awareness, China lockdowns, travel restrictions, etc.,  may have slowed the spread to other areas and countries

    Much fewer cases outside China = much fewer deaths.  Could also be related to standard of care differences/Ncov education.  The 2 deaths outside of China were Philippines and Hong Kong.  The total if combining these areas would be 2 deaths out of 39 cases.  This mortality rate over 5% is higher than Chinas reported rate.  I think we will need to see more volume of cases outside of China to really understand  mortality rate differences.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:27pm

    #6
    aggrivated

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    Feb 3 CNBC, Old news but confirms all Chris is saying

    Why has this kind of news not caused more of a concern in this country?  I really think more of us besides Adam should start wearing masks in public. A little shame of the face (which can’t be seen behind a mask anyway) might generate some more cognitive dissonance in each of our communities.

     

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/mayo-clinic-dr-gregory-poland-coronavirus-basically-at-a-pandemic.html

    Interestingly in this interview, Dr Gottlieb got cut off when he started to talk about this virus burning through the population without any herd immunity. The interview is bookended with comments on spread through travel.  I’m surprised this video hasn’t been taken down yet.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:09pm

    Reply to #3
    Monakha

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    Outside China

    I am very curious. When does incubating period end? The disease started spreading after Dec 8,2019. Millions of Chinese traveled outside china after that. Virus can’t still be incubating if spread to rest of the world.Something doesn’t sound right.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:12pm

    Reply to #1
    Lineman7

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    Why fewer deaths from the Corona Virus in developed countries outside China

    From what I’ve read (sorry no link) here are some possible reasons for the low death rate outside China:

    1. People who suffer from other conditions are less likely to travel. These are the ones who probably will suffer most fatalities.

    2. Hospitals, ERs, etc. in the West have sufficient resources such as respirators, drugs and hospital staff. When western hospitals get overwhelmed by cases, as China is, and can no longer properly care for all patients, the death rate will probably climb.

    3. Its only been a few weeks since data has been kept. It make take longer for patients to die.

    4. Its also possible some countries do not want to alarm their citizens and have suppressed reports of cases and deaths.

    As to why testing is taking so long. I read it takes at least 2 days to grow the culture sufficiently to test.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:20pm

    Reply to #3
    nordicjack

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    Regarding question regarding incubation

    I am not sure you understand the term and its use.   The incubation period of disease is the time between when the “infected individual” acquires the infection and the time they become sick ( develop symptoms ).   It is a variable but in this case people are thought to get sick or become symptomatic between 2-14 days after the infection occurs.  But more realistic most become ill 4-9 days later with this illness.

    I believe your confusion starts when people speak about this illness being infectious during the incubation or asymptomatic period.   Yes a disease that spreads during asymptomatic period is somewhat uncommon.  Usually viral shedding is thought to occur during most symptoms or right before or after.     But in the case of this particular illness it was found that people are shedding when they are not symptomatic.. that means people can pass the virus to others when they do not have a fever or cough..  that means it can be transmitted unknowingly..   that is what makes this disease a major issue in containment and tracking and tracing.. which is completely different than ebola – which has a fast incubation period making it easy to see the contacts the infected person has had.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:25pm

    #7
    kaczma

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    Coronavirus question

    I just wonder if there are only Asians die from Coronavirus !??

    Who gave them then that as present ??!!

    There are more than 1 hundred laboratories( BSL-4) in France ,Canada , Israel , USA

    Can we trust anybody ??!

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:34pm

    #8
    westcoastdog

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    Europeans have low percentage of ace II enzyme

    Infected persons flew from China and sat for many hours next to people, yet there is no reported case of anyone getting infected on a flight. It has been more than two weeks since the flights left China carrying infected persons to the US and Europe, and a few fellow passengers and crew members should have gotten infected. As far as I am aware, no one in the US or Europe claims to have been infected on a flight from China.

    Scientists believe that the virus enters through the ace II enzyme, which varies according to country. The website below indicates that Europeans generally have an incidence around 20%, while China and Japan are above 40%. I am trying to learn if persons without the ace II enzyme are immune to the Wuhan virus. If any virologist reads this, please post an answer.

    Let’s assume that persons without the enzyme, are immune to the virus, so if a European was sitting next to an infected person, he would have an approximate 80% probability of not getting sick. This may explain why no fellow passengers and crew members were not infected. Europeans would have an RO factor of less than one, which means that it will be highly unlikely for the US and Europe to have an epidemic.

    Why is the virus so virulent in China?

    • Population density
    •  High percentage of persons with the ace II enzyme.
    •  Compared to Europe, the US, and Japan, cleanliness is more difficult. 50 million Chinese have no running water in their homes. Also, the open markets have few faucets and sinks.  The best defense against the virus is washing one’s hands often. Except in the cities, it may not be possible in much of China.

    Digressing, if the virus takes off in India, the epidemic will be much, much worse and will probably kill tens of millions. Half the population have no toilet, and 160 million have no access to clean water. Basically, most of the Indians will not be able to wash their hands often. Compounding the problem, hundreds of millions cannot isolate themselves from their neighbors.

    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ACE-II-genotype-frequency-in-different-populations-countries_tbl2_5642354

    “Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor,” the investigators wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans. ”

    https://asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/Novel-Coronavirus-2019-nCoV-Receptors-Shows-Simila

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:42pm

    #9
    kunga

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    Beef up your white blood cells

    Any supplements you have decided on should be on going as it takes time for helpful levels to build up in the body.  I am not providing medical advice, check with your doc and be sure there is no bad interaction with other meds you take.

    Helpful for immune system and build white blood cells:

    Vitamin E, Zinc, Selenium, green tea, carotinoids, vitamin C, omega 3 fatty acids, pro biotics, vitamin A, garlic.

    Fatty fish, Brazil nuts, carrots, cod liver oil.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:44pm

    Reply to #3
    Mr Curious

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    Dr Peng Zhiyong interview

    There’s a pretty good interview out with a Wuhan doctor on the front lines. It seems like he’s answering questions openly and giving a lot of good information on how long mild symptoms tend to last and how often things get serious (~2 weeks in), regarding the wide diversity of serious complications stemming from declining white blood cell counts and severe inflammation.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:45pm

    Reply to #1
    nordicjack

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    Reply to fewer deaths outside china in developed countries

    First lets make something clear, which the media has misinformed people..  China is not an undeveloped country ( we could never build a hospital in a week ) and china roadways rival the US interstate infrastructure as do their airports.. with bejing being the busiest airport in the world unseeding atlanta a couple years back.    So, this stuff about that china has bad or inadequate medical care – is wrong.  in fact our health care is dependent on the products they manufacturer there .. and medicines they make their as well, not the other way around.

    Some of your observations are somewhat correct.  But mostly we are not seeing them because it is well documented the course of disease is about 3-4 weeks to kill.  The people dying today were infected about mid Jan really before things got a good head of steam..  case in point Dr Li’s infection was on or about Jan 10 as documented. and he died on Feb 6.  That should give you better idea when people get infected and when they die.

    And to the question to why is it taking so long for testing.  Just like our CDC , it takes time to prepare or make  the test kit.   Not so much time to read,  we have a rapid test for this virus – its about 4 hours.    The CDC just issued two test kits to each state – each kit contains enough for 7-800 tests. ( with a testing criteria that is very stringent )    So, there are only so many kits available. I am sure more will be made for this, but they have to get some in the hands of medical staff.  There was an allocation max of only 2000 kits per day in wuhan – and wonder why the numbers are climbing by no more than this per day..  The chinese govt just increased the allocation or the manufacturer and supply to 10,000 per day about 2 days ago.

    And finally, You stated something about it takes 2 days to culture.  This is not correct,  in fact you don’t culture viruses , you do culture bacteria.  So, I am a bit confused.  There is a viral load sensitivity in the test , so someone with a low viral load may receive a false negative.  But I do not know anything about it takes 2 days to culture..  even if it took two days to get test results , i do not believe they are growing or multiplying anything for some sort of quantitative result.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:53pm

    #10
    Myrto Ashe

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    Cases outside China not that reassuring to me

    Not sure if it fits log growth, but it doesn’t look that reassuring.

    graph cases outside China over time

    BTW, Singapore is doing the best job describing affected people in detail so we can see the epidemic developing slowly over time.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-coronavirus-singapore-new-confirmed-cases-feb-9-12412622

    One more thing I wanted to say is about the contrived numbers in China: every epidemiologist on the planet can see that the ratio of 2.1% can’t be that stable over time, so I’m thinking it’s a way to telegraph to them (without causing us to panic) that things are terrible and they should get their medical systems ready.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:00pm

    #11
    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Ace II issue

    Leaving aside the issue of which race has a higher % of ace II receptors, a few questions. 1.) are we sure that is the point of attack for this virus or is that still unsettled? 2.) is there any existing research on ace II. What other function does it play? Can it be inhibited?

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:14pm

    #12
    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Chinese numbers real?

    I want to preface this comment by saying the following is not my belief, only a thought experiment. Many of us agree that China, like much of the world is an over leveraged mess financially. A dark pond waiting for a Black swan. If you ran the ccp and you knew one was coming either way, wouldn’t you want one you could blame on something else? What if the numbers coming from China are real and deaths/ infections are low compared to the response? What if this was a slight of hand to cover a financial crisis that was coming anyway. Could that explain the low rates in the rest of the world? A little too made for Hollywood for my taste, but it’s a strange world. I try to give even my wildest ideas a minute of airtime before I tuck them away and get back to the facts. I find that by exploring ideas, even those I don’t hold to be true, I expand the map of the territory which sometimes leads to novel solutions to queries I hadn’t considered. I hope everyone can forgive me allowing my mind to wonder.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:21pm

    Reply to #2

    Montana Native

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    Why haven’t reported cases grown outside of China

    I guess I’m supposed to believe the Diamond Princess cruise ship with 130 reported cases has multiple times more cases than any other country on the planet. I don’t believe that…..https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/60-more-test-positive-for-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-in-Japan

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:22pm

    #13

    Poet

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    Clarification on hot pot

    For anyone who doesn’t know what’s Chinese hot pots dinners are, you get a tabletop cooker (electric or gas canister) and boil some soup stock and add thinly sliced meats, veggies, etc. all the food is boiled. This is similar to Japanese shabu shabu. So eating hot pot itself is not a problem.

    The transmission is due to the gathering of the entire family at the table for an extended dining experience, in close proximity. And traditionally, elders use their own chopsticks to get food to put on another person’s plate, etc. Close proximity for transmission is the issue. So if you are Italian having a family meal, a Greek kissing cheeks, a Middle Easterner or African sharing a meal and eating with your hands…

    Also, for those looking to pronounce Wuhan, it sounds like “woo-HAN!” (hard emphasis on last syllable). Hubei sounds like “who-bay” with a slight lilt almost like a question but not quite, at the end.

    Thanks for the update and valuable information, Dr. Chris.

    Poet

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:36pm

    Reply to #2
    nordicjack

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    Montana Native - why not so many cases outside china

    Your observations regarding the cruise ship is found.   But the US could not diagnose a case even if there were many.  The criteria to perform the test, is outside the range to test for human to human contact – the criteria allows that it is not a human to human and only acquired from the source ( china – or wuhan ) or direct exposure to an confirmed diagnosed person.  since there are only 12 people in the US chances are you did not have close contact with these.. so even if it came in on another person or contact with such person.  you would never get tested by the criteria.  Other than this you must have had travel to china in the last 2 weeks and since we have been quarantine for inbound china travelers for about 10 days now,   you have no chance to meet the criteria here..  Why as the US CDC thinks – this criteria is appropriate is beyond me. maybe they want a fire that they cannot control.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:41pm

    #14
    Myrto Ashe

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    IMO China can't be successful at preventing the infection of their entire population

    They are putting sick people who (I believe) test positive in “convention centers,” and very sick people who test positive in isolation “prisons” from which they can’t get out without someone else letting them out. What this does is protect the population from the sickest people. It does not protect them from the people who have tested negative mistakenly (false negatives) and it does not protect the Chinese against asymptomatic transmission.

    Then I guess they also ask contacts of sick people to quarantine themselves (a quarantine is something a healthy person undertakes, to see if they will become sick over time).

    It may be that they know that symptomatic people transmit a lot more efficiently, and that they know hospitals are way beyond being able to take care of more than a sliver of the critically ill. In that case I can see that they might be doing the only thing that can be done. But I have not seen evidence that the “convention centers” are for quarantine: they don’t house people who are waiting to find out. They house people who already know they have the virus (correct me if I’m wrong).

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:48pm

    #15
    Myrto Ashe

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    And one more thing about "lying"

    When people panic, there is a chance the economy might crash in ways it otherwise would not. It’s not entirely impossible that some people think they stand to get rich by not revealing the scale of the problem, but the more likely public health motivation for reassuring people is to not cause undue suffering and death from premature or unnecessary economic collapse. And in the case of the airline doctor, well, that’s pathetic. Agreed about causing us to lose our confidence in institutions. Conflict of interest is a real thing. A poll by MSM showed that the majority of people think this is going to be a major disruption, so the message is getting through no matter what the words are.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:49pm

    Reply to #2
    Mr Curious

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    Diamond Princess cruise ship with 130 reported cases

    wow. 130? last i heard it was 60. Anyway, the cruise ships might be a perfect pressure cooker for spread of the virus with all the close contact and you may not expect the average town to be such a good incubator.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:51pm

    Reply to #2
    Myrto Ashe

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    The only thing different about the cruise ship is that they are counting ALL the cases

    Since they were truly able to place them on quarantine and test them as soon as they spiked a temperature, they have been able to “see” all the positives. My guess.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:59pm

    #16

    mobius

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    Gratitude to Chris and Adam for their tireless work...

    As we are witnessing through Chris Martenson’s sleuthing and Adam Taggart’s & the rest of the PP team putting things together, we are living in interesting times.  My heart breaks for the Chinese people who are suffering tremendously due to the “human error” involved in the handling of this outbreak.  I keep them in my prayers.

    Therefore my sincere gratitude for this information that PP has provided during these past weeks.  It is a true test for one’s spiritual grounding to remain aware of the risks, to use the gift of time in order to take action and prepare, and to remain at peace.  Thank you all so very much.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:04pm

    #17
    nordicjack

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    Many comments about the same thing: Why so slow to spread and cause death outside china.

    Long incubation period and long time to death.     Basically,  if something doesnt cause symptoms for a week. and then takes weeks to kill you after that.  You cant get the answers you seek like you are tracking ebola.    That is what makes this virus different.   Its inherently hard to track and trace.    So, the above questions would follow.

    The answer is it just got going , the numbers are always small and slow at first and then mushroom.  Just because you start with only one person, doesnt mean you can contain a virus with an R0 of 4.     We are barely 10 days into this thing.  I am sure there are dozen if not hundreds already sick in the US.   But not close to dying yet!    So, no one is thinking we have a problem here because its barely been around for these people to get sick mind seek help.. ( and they would get nowhere if they did as they would not meet criteria for consideration and would be told to go home its just the flu. )    Just you wait.  Its here and its done deal.   Just takes one case – or one contaminated seat on airplane bus or taxi.. to get the fire going..   just give it a bit to kindle

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:05pm

    #18
    pohzzer

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    Sex Tourism

    I haven’t seen this addressed anywhere. SE Asia is the Sex Tourist capital of the world. Those same cities are highly trafficked by businessmen on business who routinely order up ‘entertainment’.

    Air traffic outside of China between these major cities and resorts and to the rest of the world are still operational.

    Standard preventative measure to prevent STDs would be ineffective against nCoV and there is likely to be a near 100% transmission rate. The sex workers tend to be younger, so more likely to be asymptomatic or slightly symptomatic, therefore passing the coronavirus to dozens or even hundreds of clients who then fly home or to another business destination where the cycle is repeated.

    It is likely there are thousands of coronavirus hot spots in every corner of the planet from this alone.

    This transmission vector continues to operate in the present, so there are currently hundreds to thousands of infected sex workers continuing to spread the coronavirus.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:48pm

    #19
    Satoshi Nakamoto

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    Spitting in Public

    Mainland Chinese culture is notorious for people spitting in public.  I happen to live in an international tourist destination beach area in Thailand, and I’ve heard numerous unpleasant stories from local Westerners and Thais alike about this in their experience with mainland Chinese tourists.

    For me, since about January 27th, I became sufficiently alarmed about this new virus to start diligently wearing N95 masks in public.  However, just a couple evenings ago, I decided to go for a walk on the beach without wearing a mask, because I figured that, with the moderately strong onshore sea breeze, I would be relatively safe from possible infection as long as I walked near the water, keeping any remaining beach-goers downwind of me.  Unfortunately, just as I was walking past a Chinese tourist, he spat onto the sand near me – something which I hadn’t considered in my decision not to wear a mask.  I was furious with him, but I took some comfort in the knowledge that he was downwind of me, and hopefully none of his spittle managed to reach my body (or my airways).

    This episode reminded me of the whole mainland Chinese cultural acceptance of public spitting, and because the virus is apparently present in saliva, I can’t help but wonder if this is significantly contributing to the disaster currently ongoing in China.  If the virus, as reported recently, can survive on surfaces for several days, then I’m sure people spitting in public only serves to efficiently distribute the virus onto the surfaces in the immediate area, for someone else to touch or brush up against, for further human transmission.  Not to mention that the act itself of forcefully spitting very likely aerosolizes the virus for further spread into the air nearby – exactly as expressed in the video above.  To that end, I can’t help but wonder if unknowingly infected people who spit in public represent the “super spreaders” that the infectious disease experts have been warning about.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:51pm

    #20
    nordicjack

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    The irony of true fear mongering

    What is odd, is the media and drs and who warning about conspiracy theories of how bad this is.  Yet , they keep telling us “don’t worry about this , worry about the flu it kills 10 thousand or more each year”

    Yeah, I will tell you what, telling me to worry about the flu is the real fear mongering – hurry go get your flu shots.. it kills.     Well I will tell you what  I am not friggin worried about the flu at all; It kills only 1 out 1000 infected.. it doesn’t scare me a bit..  However , i will start to worry about a virus that even by china published numbers is more than 2% – So that kills at least one out 50 people.. Do you know 50 people , through work , friends , family?    at least one of those will die!!!    but don’t worry about this worry about the flu..   !!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 1:32am

    #21
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

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    The Data is so incomplete...

    …and human nature is a variable that can’t ever be tract properly. Your analysis Chris has been awesome and it must be very discouraging to you to not have remotely close to data that could give a better picture. Still, there is enough there to caution everyone and that being the case is a worthwhile exercise for you to share, guilt free and without regards to those who’s job it is to discredit so they protect their own books. I for one will just stay away from crowds. I keep a bottle of hand sanitizer in my coat and I use it all the time. Too much actually but I believe it is better to be looking at my sanitizer being spread on my hands than to look for it. If a Virus such as this can settle on a door knob and live days there having a good ole time until the unsuspected comes by, turns the knob, then catches a sneeze, or scratches the side of my lips or up my nose then having the sanitizer before hand, still coating my hands might still give me a chance of surviving. Two years ago my Lady and I had double pneumonia and I honestly felt we were dying it was so bad. I will avoid these symptoms if at all possible. I still have so much to accomplish in my life, like just sitting on the screened in porch and lazily sleep a couple of hours and enjoying this part of my day. Thanks Chris, really do appreciate your efforts. I never leave home without a mask or gloves and still, I’ll get the funny looks even in the Doctors office. I honestly feel they are looking me up and down as some kind of threat to their operation. We do live in strange times but, that’s ok, to each its own, right?

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 1:38am

    #22
    Andy_S

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    Virus Affects SMOKERS and ASIAN MALES Worse - ACE-2 Studies

     

    Think on this for a second. Half (47.1%) of all Chinese men have a smoking habit. (Smoking has been proven to make the ACE-2 problem worse). Plus – Asian males have been proven to have up to 5 TIMES the ACE-2 Receptor cells in their lungs. I believe this is why the pandemic is so much worse in Asia. (And will likely continue to be). 

    Remember – SARS also entered through the ACE-2 Receptor cells. And the death rate for SARS ended up being (tragically) 96% Asian.

    These are very important points – and Chris is aware of them. I wish he would emphasize this in his videos – because it shows why this thing may be far worse in Asia than anywhere else.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:30am

    #23
    kunga

    kunga

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    Corona virus detection test

    Australia researchers just managed to grow up 2019 Cov in the lab.  Viruses can be grown in vitro but must be in a cell culture, not a Petri dish.  This will mean much faster detection as specific antibodies can now be created.  Detection possibly in minutes like for a simple blood type test.  medicalexpress.com

    The current detection method is by PCR which is a complicated method in which sections of viral nucleic acid must be replicated.  Takes several days.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:40am

    #24

    suziegruber

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    4+

    Southern CA blogs about life on the Diamond Princess

    A couple from Southern California is blogging about their experience being stuck on the Diamond Princess.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:49am

    #25
    pat the rat

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    judgement call

    Here is the problem in a nutshell,if we start wearing mask and gloves to early we burn presage resource, before thy are needed. On the other hand we start wearing mask and gloves to late thy will do little or no good.This is going be one hell of a judgement call!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:59am

    Reply to #22
    nigel

    nigel

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    Cold hard facts

    In the video it was said that a release of sulfur dioxide is occuring, and it’s being stated that this pollution is the result of burning organic matter, given the context this point is raised around we are left to infer that it’s bodies. That doesn’t have to be true at all, I can think of a half dozen other things that could be responsible, for example burning of refuse, or better yet it could be the burning of diesel fuel on refuse, or it could be the running of diesel generators. All of these are almost certainly happening, they have to be disposing of the used protective gear and contaminated matter, and in these situations the easy way to do that is pile it up, pour diesel on it and light it.

    I’m not saying they aren’t burning bodies, they certainly are, at least 2% above their normal rate right now, what I am saying is that I am getting wary of what you are talking about.

    Some of the horrible things that have happened in human history happened because we have some deep seated biological programming that responds in predictable ways when faced with a threat, in particular the threat of disease or plague. This response is a genetically programmed survival mechanism that an otherwise reasonable person would not exhibit until they are triggered by the right environment. You are pushing people towards this mechanism with suggestive reporting, I would very much prefer that you present cold hard facts.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:45am

    #26
    Matties

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    Re : cold hard facts

    You are getting cold hard facts. You are the one who is inferring. There is a sulfur dioxide cloud like you would get from burning bodies.

    I would direct you to the Chinese authorities for further info. Good luck !

    Blog the answers here please…

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:50am

    Reply to #23
    Mary Critchley

    Mary Critchley

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    Hopeful news today for rapid diagnostic on site test

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cepheid-announces-development-of-test-for-new-coronavirus-strain-2019-ncov-301001684.html

    SUNNYVALE, Calif.Feb. 10, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Cepheid today announced that in response to the rapid outbreak of a new coronavirus strain, the Company is developing an automated molecular test for the qualitative detection of 2019-nCoV. The test will be designed for use on any of its 23,000 GeneXpert® Systems placed worldwide and is expected to deliver point-of-care results in about 30 minutes.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:14am

    #27
    Matties

    Matties

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    The Narrative of Gabriele De’ Mussi, Kaffa (Feodosia, Crim, Black Sea)

    Because i enjoy a little black humor from time to time here some history of the plaque.

    “In the name of God, Amen. Here begins an account of the disease or mortality which occurred in 1348, put together by Gabrielem de Mussis of Piacenza.”

    “…In 1346, in the countries of the East, countless numbers of Tartars and Saracens were struck down by a mysterious illness which brought sudden death. Within these countries broad regions, far-spreading provinces, magnificent kingdoms, cities, towns and settlements, ground down by illness and devoured by dreadful death, were soon stripped of their inhabitants. An eastern settlement under the rule of the Tartars called Tana, which lay to the north of Constantinople and was much frequented by Italian merchants, was totally abandoned after an incident there which led to its being besieged and attacked by hordes of Tartars who gathered in a short space of time. The Christian merchants, who had been driven out by force, were so terrified of the power of the Tartars that, to save themselves and their belongings, they fled in an armed ship to Caffa, a settlement in the same part of the world which had been founded long ago by the Genoese.

    “Oh God! See how the heathen Tartar races, pouring together from all sides, suddenly invested the city of Caffa and besieged the trapped Christians there for almost three years. There, hemmed in by an immense army, they could hardly draw breath, although food could be shipped in, which offered them some hope. But behold, the whole army was affected by a disease which overran the Tartars and killed thousands upon thousands every day. It was as though arrows were raining down from heaven to strike and crush the Tartars’ arrogance. All medical advice and attention was useless; the Tartars died as soon as the signs of disease appeared on their bodies: swellings in the armpit or groin caused by coagulating humours, followed by a putrid fever.

    “The dying Tartars, stunned and stupefied by the immensity of the disaster brought about by the disease, and realizing that they had no hope of escape, lost interest in the siege. But they ordered corpses to be placed in catapults and lobbed into the city in the hope that the intolerable stench would kill everyone inside. What seemed like mountains of dead were thrown into the city, and the Christians could not hide or flee or escape from them. And soon the rotting corpses tainted the air and poisoned the water supply, and the stench was so overwhelming that hardly one in several thousand was in a position to flee the remains of the Tartar army. Moreover one infected man could carry the poison to others, and infect people and places with the disease by look alone. No one knew, or could discover, a means of defense.

    “Thus almost everyone who had been in the East, or in the regions to the south and north, fell victim to sudden death after contracting this pestilential disease, as if struck by a lethal arrow which raised a tumor on their bodies. The scale of the mortality and the form which it took persuaded those who lived, weeping and lamenting, through the bitter events of 1346 to 1348—the Chinese, Indians, Persians, Medes, Kurds, Armenians, Cilicians, Georgians, Mesopotamians, Nubians, Ethiopians, Turks, Egyptians, Arabs, Saracens and Greeks (for almost all the East has been affected)—that the last judgement had come.

    “…As it happened, among those who escaped from Caffa by boat were a few sailors who had been infected with the poisonous disease. Some boats were bound for Genoa, others went to Venice and to other Christian areas. When the sailors reached these places and mixed with the people there, it was as if they had brought evil spirits with them: every city, every settlement, every place was poisoned by the contagious pestilence, and their inhabitants, both men and women, died suddenly. And when one person had contracted the illness, he poisoned his whole family even as he fell and died, so that those preparing to bury his body were seized by death in the same way. Thus death entered through the windows, and as cities and towns were depopulated their inhabitants mourned their dead neighbours.”

    Adapted from:
    Horrox R, The Black Death. Manchester: Manchester University Press; 1994. p. 14–26.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:41am

    Reply to #2

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

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    Re: Outside China

    Why has coronavirus been so slow to spread outside China?

    This is indeed a puzzle, and I’m very glad for it.  My current favorite theory is that nCoV is far more infective and deadlier for some races than others.

    Specifically the distribution of ACE II receptors to which the virus binds seems to be unequally distributed across races, genders (males more than females) and can be upregulated by smoking (that is, more receptors get expressed on the surface of cells as a result of smoking).

    But there ins’t super compelling data in my possession to back this up yet.  Just a handful of research articles exploring a small number of subjects.  I haven’t had time to explore this more fully, but I will.

    The next concern, of course, is that somewhere along the way the virus mutates and that changes both its infectivity (usually for the worse, because any mutations that confer higher transmissivity will, by definition, be ‘more successful’) and its deadliness.

    The best mutation would be one that makes it spread super easy but which lowers its serious/lethality percentages.

    Fingers crossed for that outcome.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:43am

    #28

    nickbert

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 274

    7+

    Mongolia shutting down coal exports to China

    Just found out today the Mongolian gov’t here is shutting down all its coal exports to China until March 2nd. It seems like a pretty big deal economically since most of their exports are coal and mineral trade with China. But it’s quite possible with many Chinese factories shut down there simply isn’t much demand for Mongolian coal anyway. Either way, the Mongolian economy is surely going to feel the pinch from this.

    No confirmed cases here as of yet, but the news today has reported there are new cases just on the other side of the southern Mongolia-China border in one of the border towns. All land traffic to/from China except for goods shipped by rail is closed, so hopefully those cases won’t spread over the border. Mongolia isn’t likely to starve if all China imports come to a halt, and petroleum is largely imported from Russia and not China. But the local diet will get awfully limited without imports coming through China. Not to mention a lot of the machinery and industry here is reliant on consumables and parts from China.

    The Mongolian gov’t here is also ‘discouraging’ people from the customary Tsagaan Sar (Mongolian New Year) holiday later this month. Given that it involves many families visiting many other families and sharing meals in their homes over several days, it’s a very sensible but unpopular policy. I think our family will be doing a ‘family only’ Tsagaan Sar, and probably at the family’s summer property outside the city. I suspect many other Mongolians in the cities will do the same, though the rural Mongolians are more likely to go about business as usual. At least they are the least likely to have been exposed in the first place…

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:46am

    Reply to #3
    Kim L. Law

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    Takes a while for the whole disease process to play out.

    People infected outside of China were infected much later than the ones succumbing to the virus. It hasn’t even been a month since the virus has spread overseas. Don’t forget patient 0 was in December, and it wasn’t till almost Feburary when the epidemic played out.

    So don’t be so quick to judge, especially the CFR.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:50am

    #29
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Epoch Times link via Breitbart

    Daily cremation of about 341 new crown dead in the two halls of Hubei (Epoch Times) (Google Translate)

    Source Article

    Breitbart reference

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:52am

    Reply to #3
    loot

    loot

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    Still only two confirmed deaths outside China.  If the coronary is as contagious and deadly as advertised, how are there only two deaths so far?

    It takes time for deaths to come. If you look inside China, there are several areas with 1000 or several hundred cases with just a few or even zero deaths.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:53am

    #30
    Mary59

    Mary59

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    DAILY MAIL UK CURRENT HEADLINE....

    Police ‘wearing hazmat suits’ will be able to HANDCUFF suspected coronavirus patients and force them back into quarantine: Tough new laws after a patient tried to ‘BREAK OUT’ from Arrowe Park and total UK infected DOUBLES to eight

    • Health Secretary Matt Hancock says coronavirus is ‘serious and imminent threat’ to the British public
    • The announcement will give the government powers to forcibly quarantine victims
    • Powers are brought in after a Briton staying at Arrowe Park hospital tried to flee before his isolation ended
    • It comes as there are now eight confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the UK, five of whom are linked

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:55am

    #31
    rlbruderick

    rlbruderick

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    Status of Recovered Patients

    There are more than 3000 patients of 2019-nCoV who are reported to have recovered.  What is the data on these people post-recovery?  Are they healthy?  Do they need follow-up drugs?  Are they free of the virus?  Are they immune to the virus?  Are they infectious to others?  How many have become sick again?  How many have died?  What about pregnant women and newborn babies – how are they affected?

    Thank you for your great, uncensored thoughts and warnings!

    Rick

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:12am

    Reply to #22

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Facts and Sulfur Dioxide

    In the video it was said that a release of sulfur dioxide is occuring, and it’s being stated that this pollution is the result of burning organic matter, given the context this point is raised around we are left to infer that it’s bodies. That doesn’t have to be true at all, I can think of a half dozen other things that could be responsible, for example burning of refuse, or better yet it could be the burning of diesel fuel on refuse, or it could be the running of diesel generators. All of these are almost certainly happening, they have to be disposing of the used protective gear and contaminated matter, and in these situations the easy way to do that is pile it up, pour diesel on it and light it.

    I agree that those are all possibilities.

    And..let’s go with what we know.  After receiving dozens of reports of the Wuhan crematoriums running 24/7 we know (as much as can be known) that they are burning and contributing SO2 to the local air.

    We don’t know, but could strongly suspect that the burning of contaminated PPE might be happening.  However I would suspect that would be buried instead.  Less obvious, just as good, and less chance of accidentally releasing something toxic at an already delicate time.

    Generators could be a thing, but I haven’t received a single report of the electricity being out in Wuhan.  So I can’t think of why there would be a big generator load right now.

    It’s also possible, I suppose that the local electricity plants have switched over to a lower grade of coal for some reason, possibly due to supply issues?  Again, this is pure speculation.

    Of all the things I know and don’t know, I am certain that the crematoriums are contributing to the SO2 load.  How much?  Don’t know.  Is it entirely responsible?  Don’t know.  But we know it’s a thing, guaranteed.  The rest is reasonable speculation but without any data or evidence to back it up.  Of course, should any arise, then we’d entertain it.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:14am

    #32
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

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    Sulfur dioxide emissions

    For the sake of balanced argument, I found a well-reasoned counterpoint to the theory that the recent sulfur dioxide emission spike is due to China burning bodies: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f19uc8/debunking_the_burning_bodies_sulphur_sulfur/

    disclaimer: I’m not smart enough to parse this, and I have no experience in the relevant fields. I’d be interested to hear the inputs of others who have the background to give some analysis.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:40am

    #33

    saxplayer00o1

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    Coronavirus cases outside China may be 'tip of the iceberg': WHO

    Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan

    The third possibility proposed was that: “Dead bodies are being burned on the outskirts of the city, the death numbers are way higher than the CCP is letting on about, and things are really, really bad.” One netizen even calculated that it would take the burning of 14,000 bodies to reach such a high level of SO2.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013

    ===========================

    China confirms 27 foreigners infected with coronavirus, 2 dead

    China’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed that two foreigners have died among 27 who have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus infection as of February 10.

    https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html

    ========================

    Sixty more people confirmed with coronavirus on cruise ship in Japan: media

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/sixty-more-people-confirmed-with-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-in-japan-media-idUSKBN2040FG

    =========================

    Scientists Predict Coronavirus May Live For Up To Nine Days On Surfaces

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/09/scientists-predict-coronavirus-may-live-for-up-to-nine-days-on-surfaces/#68a7143d14e3

    ==============================

    Coronavirus latest: Nissan to halt production at Japanese plant

    Nissan will temporarily suspend production at a Japanese plant due to a shortage in car components, deepening the turmoil in global supply chains caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

    https://www.ft.com/content/edb06e55-5b8d-3a75-9ed9-7aeb07f1da14

    =================================

    Coronavirus: Much of ‘the world’s factory’ still shut

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51439400

    =============================

    Coronavirus global pandemic ‘looking likely’ – NZ public health expert

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409173/coronavirus-global-pandemic-looking-likely-nz-public-health-expert

    =============================

    Q1 smartphone output may drop to 5-year low due to coronavirus: report

    Global smartphone production in the first quarter of the year may drop to a five-year low due to the novel coronavirus outbreak, a market researcher said Monday.

    TrendForce said it expects global smartphone production in the first quarter to decline 12 percent on-year to 275 million units following the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 900 people in China.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200210000915

    ==========================

    Singapore Braces as Coronavirus Cases Emerge in Finance Hub

    The city-state has cautioned residents to avoid shaking hands in a bid to contain the spread of the virus. Panic buying had sparked a run on toilet paper, rice and instant noodles in stores, echoing scenes of long lines and bare shelves seen last week in Hong Kong and mainland China. Government officials warned against hoarding supplies, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore told banks to be prepared for an increased demand in cash withdrawals.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-braces-coronavirus-cases-emerge-063610017.html

    =======================

    Coronavirus cases outside China may be ‘tip of the iceberg’: WHO

    But WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there had been “concerning instances” of transmission from people who had not been to China.

    “The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg,” he said in Geneva.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/coronavirus-cases-outside-china-may-be-tip-of-the-iceberg-who-idUSKBN20402G

    ===================

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:54am

    #34

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 1651

    15+

    Valentines Day 2020

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:27am

    #35
    ddelong

    ddelong

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    Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

    It looks like given some of the Sulfur Dioxide data actually being forecasts, this might all be a wild goose chase.

    But…

    What I would like to know is what they are actually spraying in the streets in several pictures from China?  It could be something more standard like bleach, Chlorine Dioxide, Vaporous Hydrogen Peroxide being used as a virus inactivator, but these are usually pretty bad to inhale for us human beings.

    However, a way less used viral inactivation agent is, wait for it, Sulfur Dioxide.  There are a number of historical studies out there on viral inactivation of sewage and some regarding viral inactivation in mucosal membranes in animal studies.

    Maybe we don’t’ have an SO2 near/over Wuhan.

    Maybe they are try to mass decon their precious masks and suits due supply issues.

    Maybe they are trying to decon all the infectious waste.

    Maybe they are fogging hot spots within the city of Wuhan.

    Who knows what is really going on regarding the SO2, but it can be used as a virucidal agent and gases would be pervasive and penetrating agent than any liquid based agent.

     

    Once again take with a grain of salt with the SO2 forecast/data issue, but if true releases are seen, use as a virucidal agent are possible.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:55am

    #36

    saxplayer00o1

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    Posts: 3082

    4+

    Zerohedge brings up this about China moving the goalposts

    Alex Lam 林偉聰
    @lwcalex

    Apologies to non-Chinese speakers. The highlighted text in the original tweet reads: If “symptom-free infected patient” start to show clinical signs, revise his categorization to “confirmed case.” It implies they aren’t counted before the symptoms show.
    Quote Tweet
    Alex Lam 林偉聰
    @lwcalex
    ·
    Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus “confirmed case” in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. This inevitably will lower the numbers.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:03am

    Reply to #10
    Gerald Melino

    Gerald Melino

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    Outside China

    My data shows that the number of infections outside china should double every 4.8 days. I do not have enough data yet to have 95% confidence limits on that number.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:08am

    #37

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3082

    Good link to track infections daily around the world

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

     

    Since most of us agree that the data from China can’t be trusted we can track its spread around the world in each country using this link. This is a good starting point and could give us clues as to how quickly it is either spreading or getting under control.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:10am

    #38
    Gerald Melino

    Gerald Melino

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    The red solid line is the daily increase in the cases in China as a percentage of the previous day as reported. Prior to Jan 28, when they put all reporting under the command of a central committee, it was showing a dramatic increase on a daily basis with high variabilty. After this date the increase started to decline with little variability. The green triangles show what you would get from a statistical model of a decline. It shows a 98% correlation with the reported data. How convenient. The blue dotted line shows the increase in cases outside of China. It shows the variability you would expect in this type of data. Draw your own conclusions.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:13am

    #39

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3082

    2 links to track the spread of Coronavirus in other countries

     

    Region Confirmed Deaths Recovered
    Mainland China 40199 908 3549
    Japan 156 0 4
    Singapore 45 0 7
    Hong Kong 38 1 0
    Thailand 32 0 10
    South Korea 27 0 3
    Malaysia 18 0 3
    Taiwan 18 0 1
    Australia 15 0 5
    Vietnam 14 0 3
    Germany 14 0 0
    US 12 0 3
    France 11 0 0
    Macau 10 0 1
    Region Confirmed Deaths Recovered
    UK 8 0 0
    Canada 7 0 0
    United Arab Emirates 7 0 1
    Philippines 3 1 0
    India 3 0 0
    Italy 3 0 0
    Russia 2 0 0
    Spain 2 0 0
    Sri Lanka 1 0 1
    Sweden 1 0 0
    Belgium 1 0 0
    Cambodia 1 0 0
    Nepal 1 0 0
    Finland 1 0 1

    https://wuflu.live/

    TRANSMISSION RATE (Ro)
    (estimated range)
    FATALITY RATE (CFR)
    (WHO early estimate)
    2% (?)
    INCUBATION PERIOD
    (estimated)
    2 – 14 days
    COUNTRIES AND TERRITORIES
    (affected by 2019-nCoV)

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:19am

    #40
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 144

    15+

    Asian male ACE2 increased expression has been disproven. ACE II is not ACE2

    The stickler in me keeps wanting to correct these incorrect comments that appear here. Let’s get our facts straight. Read post #59 in this thread https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-what-we-can-say-publicly-what-we-cant/ for a deeper explanation.

    In fact, a just published (not peer reviewed paper) of many more lung tissue samples from Asians and Caucausians saw no difference in ACE2 expression between the two groups. They did however see that smokers had higher expression.

    Thank you David (post #63) for posting the link to this paper
    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1

    Published by Guoshuai Cai, Professor
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

    These methodologies and conclusions seem legitimate. This is the kind of replication studies that are needed to reinforce or disprove the observation seen in one tissue sample from a single Asian male. This larger study disproves that theory. This is how science is supposed to work. come up with a hypothesis, test it, report observations, keep repeating in larger samples and see if you get the same/different result, as in keep testing your hypothesis. I would say this is a very opposite result from the paper that only looked at 8 samples, one being asian male.  So that is a failed hypothesis.

    ACE II stands for ACE Insertion/Insertion…it is a very common mutation in the ACE gene….it has absolutely nothing to do with ACE2.  ACE and ACE2 are two different genes entirely.

    ACE Angiotensin-converting enzyme is on chromosome 17

    ACE2 Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 is on the X chromosome (so potentially women who have two X chromosomes may have more expression of ACE2 than men, who have only one X chromosome).

     

    Claire

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:20am

    #41
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Posts: 31

    2+

    The market's pricing in no corona risk

    I just wanted to post that here as well, since i know for a lot of people in the US and EU, the clock doesn’t start ticking until the market drops. And so far the market is having none of it.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:26am

    #42
    Laura from Texas

    Laura from Texas

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    Posts: 8

    4+

    N-95 vs Aerosol

    So   .  .  .  .

    What does the new aerosol factor mean to us, in terms of masks?

    Is N95 still the standard?  Are procedure masks now completely useless?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:31am

    Reply to #9

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 505

    6+

    Beef up your white blood cells

    Or, instead of taking supplements, you can temporarily, or permanently, switch to a WFPB diet/lifestyle (whole foods plant based) and get all the vitamins and minerals you need, except for B12, from the food you eat.

    The up side to this approach, is that the vitamins and minerals work much more effectively, when acquired from plants, than from a pill.  You can confirm this statement yourself, by researching the science that has been done on nutrition and supplements.

    Gorillas, Orangutans, Chimpanzees and Homo Sapiens are Great Apes.  Great Apes are herbivores.  Chimps get perhaps 1% of their nutrition from animal food sources, Gorillas and Orangutans, none.

    But homo sapiens have decided that they can ignore the health effects of eating foods their body does not handle well.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:50am

    #43
    Robert Woodard

    Robert Woodard

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    Posts: 2

    2+

    Prudent Planning

    Hi Chris and/or Adam (or anyone in the know),

    I have a small manufacturing business in the midwest where I receive a number of packages and other shipments from customers and vendors all over the world on almost a daily basis.  I am concerned about the potential communicability of the novel coronavirus due to the many hands these packages may have passed through.  I have two items available to me that I thought might help with this concern: a large paint bake oven (like the size of a chest freezer) and a small UV resin curing station (about the size of a small toaster oven).  Will soaking packages at 180 F for some number of hours in the paint bake oven deactivate the known human coronavirus types, and therefore likely also the novel coronavirus?  Will putting small packages in the UV curing station for some number of minutes deactivate the known human coronavirus types, and therefore likely also the novel coronavirus?

    Thanks in advance.

    RWW

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:04am

    #44
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Posts: 31

    2+

    On the masks

    You need FFP3 protection; that’ll still work. The virus is 0,12 microns so anything that filters out particles above 0,11 micron just works. FFP3 will be enough; as long as the mask fits your face properly. You need quite a bit of force to draw air through such small holes; which means if it doesn’t fit your face properly, you’re just drawing in unfiltered air anyway.

    But most face masks are FFP2, which is equivalent to N95. That’s not enough against Aerosols, only droplets. The problem is when the virus can propagate outside of the droplets as now you’re trying to filter actual particles and not something with surface tension.

    Surgical masks never where for your protection. They’re for trying to limit the spread to others. That’s what they are developed for: To prevent bacteria in a surgeons mouth from infecting an open wound of the patient on the surgical table. A lot of people died due to secondary infection this way before they understood the danger.

    But again; It’s highly likely that it can enter your body through your eye mucus, as there was a Chinese official in full protective gear minus eye gear who got sick anyway. So if you really want to be protected, go for a full blown full face mask with replaceable filters that you can wash with bleach water every time you go back into a domicile or other area where you intend to walk around without a mask on.

    As long as you’re careful, it is still very much possible to never catch this. The things that will get you in the end:
    – Lack of morale 1 month into a lock down. Morale slips, people get careless, and you take off your mask before washing your hands just once and because it was itching you scratch and boom; you’re infected.

    – Friends and family who where less careless and drag the virus into your home. Good luck turning desperate infected relatives away too. If you really wanna prevent infection, that’s whats necessary as there are numerous reports of family clusters. Virtually all the cases in Germany so far where family clusters.

    – Hospital visit because something *else* happened. Slip, fall, break a leg – that’s a hospital visit. And with an open break with an Aerosol virus you are done for.

    – Denial. That cough you’re developing is just a cold, nothing to worry about. Certainly not something to worry about when you drag it into your home with the rest of your family.

    – Luck. Sometimes…. ya just can’t catch a break.

    If you’re not prepared for the long fight, i’d recommend catching it early. As we’ve seen, as long as there is adequate medical care and the ICU isn’t overwhelmed, the chance of death is very low. Otherwise; the best prevention is lack of human contact.

    OH; i forgot to mention. If you live in an apartment building with central ventilation; you’ll wanna just tape that off now. I care about stale air less then i care about living.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:15am

    #45

    Oliveoilguy

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 580

    4+

    New test being developed

    Hello Cepheid,

     

    The Coronavirus 2019-nCoV (Wuhan Strain) continues to spread rapidly across China. On January 30th, the WHO declared the outbreak a global health emergency, acknowledging that the disease presents a risk that extends beyond China.

     

    Using the same approach as when we developed Xpert Ebola in response to the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Cepheid is accessing the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) regulatory pathway with the FDA (US Federal Drug Administration) to develop an assay that detects Coronavirus 2019-nCoV. The expected test would be an automated real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test for the qualitative detection of 2019-nCoV RNA from nasopharyngeal swabs. It is intended to be run on all of our current systems and is expected to be operationally similar to our Flu/RSV Xpress assay. We are targeting launch of this product within a few months, comparable to the time it took to launch our best-in-class test for Ebola.

     

    Providing access to timely, highly accurate diagnostics that improve patient outcomes and public health worldwide is the heart of our mission – it’s what we do. We are convinced that developing this assay is the right decision to help patients, customers and nations who urgently need our help.

     

    Patients First!

     

    Warren

     

     

    Warren C. Kocmond

    President

    Cepheid

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:17am

    Reply to #44
    Laura from Texas

    Laura from Texas

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    Posts: 8

    1+

    Masks

    Dang it.

    Thanks for the information;  I appreciate you taking the time to respond.

    But, dang it nonetheless.

    If  someone knowledgeable about these things could weigh in on what to get that will handle the aerosol problem, I’d be very grateful.  (Most of my Amazon searches are still coming up with N-95 results, and/or not enough detail to tell if the respirator/filter combination is what I’m looking for.)

    Thank you all!

     

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:43am

    #46
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 98

    Let the algos read this

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:43am

    #47
    centroid

    centroid

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 15

    so will ibuprofin actually suppress the inflammation in your lungs and help you breath if you have the virus?. i’m making the assumption that i’m going to catch the bug

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:51am

    #48

    George Karpouzis

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 157

    1+

    Glad I prepared

    I took the big steps to prep for any pandemic that may come to Southern California

    interestingly we have 2 confirmed cases now and that hasn’t moved in over a week. Very slow growth outside of China as of now.

    Not as worried as I was last week that’s for sure

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:57am

    Reply to #2
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Posts: 71

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    Cruise ships the ideal research setting

    I agree with you Myrto. Cruise ships may be offering us the best insights available into the true effects of disease transmission because they are a closed environment where so many variables can be controlled. Think of it this way, with their ability to test a fixed sample group and to set up quarantine we might be getting nearer the truth of how viral thus illness us without depending strictly on Chinese data. The high infection rates are alarming.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:07am

    Reply to #2
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Posts: 71

    1+

    Cruise ships the ideal research setting

    I agree with you Myrto. Cruise ships may be offering us the best insights available into the true effects of disease transmission because they are a closed environment where so many variables can be controlled. Think of it this way, with their ability to monitor and test a fixed sample group daily and to set up quarantine we might be getting nearer the truth of how viral this illness is without depending strictly on Chinese data. The high infection rates we are seeing on these ships is insightful and offers invaluable information to Western researchers.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:20am

    #49
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 108

    8+

    Peak Prosperity Site failing to load/slow?

    I regularly have issues trying to load this site, do you?

    Have there been any updates on this issue by Chris or other administrators?

    If this is a capacity issue are there plans to upgrade site/infrastructure?

    Concerned the site may become unusable as readers and subscribers grow due to recent virus interest.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:29am

    Reply to #49
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 71

    6+

    Yes, the site is dead slow to load

    It could be a testament to the level of interest in this subject right now. It could also be that Peak Prosperity is suffering a denial of service attack. I just left a duplicate comment thinking the first did not get through after a very long delay. Hmmm.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:32am

    #50

    westcoastjan

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 219

    3+

    PPE resources

    For those who would like a bit more info on the use and care of personal protective equipment (PPE) there are some great resources on the WorkSafeBC website:

    https://www.worksafebc.com/en/health-safety/tools-machinery-equipment/personal-protective-equipment-ppe

    Jan

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:35am

    #51
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 305

    4+

    PP site 504 error, "IsItDown?" 21 hours

    Well that was weird and concerning.  I tried to access PP site a few minutes ago (10:1 a.m. PST), got a 504 error indicating the site was down.  Checked “IsItDownRightNow?” and it indicated that the site was down, had been down for 21 hours.  I tried but couldn’t paste the screen shot or snip.  Here’s the link:  https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/peakprosperity.com.html

    Apparently its up now. Others have the same experience?  Hope all is well.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:43am

    #52

    westcoastjan

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 219

    2+

    surgical mask vs. respirator

    excellent little video

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:07am

    #53

    ktruddymd

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 15

    1+

    BSL-4 Lab Wujan

    Is it possible to use Google Map to document the past presence of the BSL-4 lab in Wujan, and then reload it immediately to see if the lab is still there?

    Just asking …

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:10am

    #54
    Matties

    Matties

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 98

    Trump confirms

    Trump confirmed again his believe that with warmer weather the virus will retreat.

    April is his target.

    No doubt this is info from the Chinese based on SARS.

    You still got infected ? Do the old fire drake dance around many fires and make sure you overheat pretty well from the inside and on the outside. That should take care of the little beings…

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:20am

    Reply to #2

    ktruddymd

    Status Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 15

    5+

    Back of the Envelope R0 for Princess Dream

    First case reported on Jan 25.

    Cases (essentially) doubled in the past 24 hours, from 70 to 136.

    If I plug in an R0=5 (“ish”), then 1…5 … 25 … 125 cases, assuming an incubation period of, on average, 5 days, which is what JAMA is reporting now in a very preliminary analysis of a small cohort of cases … gets us to a close approximation of what is now reported:  136 cases

    By Feb 15, if the R0=5, then 1682 passengers will be infected with nCoV-19, and by Feb 20 everyone else on board will be sick.  Of course, “everyone else on board” is an exaggeration because surely some people will be immune or have asymptotic disease.

    Please tell me where my arithmetic is flawed or my assumptions are misbegotten.

    Thanks.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:23am

    Reply to #2
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    Posts: 15

    2+

    Slow spread

    I have wondered the same thing. Here are my three theories:

    1) It hasn’t spread much to the outside world since it is genetically engineered to attack people of Chinese ancestry. I tend to doubt this one since, the virus is not even spreading that quickly outside of  Hubei province, despite huge Chinese populations.

    2) The disease has a longer incubation period than people realize. In essence, it has already spread throughout the world but the hundreds of thousands of victims are asymptomatic as of this point.

    3) The virus is a fast mutator and the strains outside of Hubei province are less problematic or even asymptomatic entirely.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:25am

    #55
    TomKellyTAK

    TomKellyTAK

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    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 5

    2+

    Check out the body bags in the trash outside the crematoriums at funeral homes

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:28am

    #56
    TreePlanter

    TreePlanter

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    Joined: Oct 31 2018

    Posts: 2

    2+

    If nCov goes pandemic - do you want to be sick early or late?

    I would like to hear your thoughts on this scenario. A virologist from Uppsala University, Sweden, said that he thought that this virus is here to stay and will keep going round the world like the H1N1-flu. As a part of the background disease pressure.  That in principle everyone on the planet will get the nCov. Some will die, the rest will recover and have some immunity for when it comes around the next winter season.

    If that is true – when in the cycle do you prefer to be sick? Early on, when there are empty beds at the intensive care?

    Or late, when there maybe is a vaccine, or more knowledge about which treatment actually works?

    In Wuhan, it seems like the health system is over-saturated with sick people, and people are put into “death-or-recovery halls” with minimum care where they at least don’t infect someone else. (I would not like to end up in a hall like that…)

    What would you prefer? What do you aim for, you and your family?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:30am

    Reply to #51
    TomKellyTAK

    TomKellyTAK

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 5

    Site overloaded

    The site is probably overloaded. I  got through after several tries. Admin should be informed. probably Bandwidth problem. Bandwidth costs money.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:33am

    #57

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 588

    11+

    Gonna take a stab at this "outside China" thing

    I’m no expert, and I’m collating and summarizing what I’ve been reading across a multitude of sources and media types, but as far as I understand it, we won’t even know if this is as virulent outside of China for another few weeks. Why? Well, if this thing kicked off in a person or two in late November/early December, but didn’t really get “traction” in the general population until mid-January, that’s a lag of almost 6 weeks between “a few people” to “HOLY F**KING HELL!”

    So, we’re in, what, week 3? Given this thing has an incubation period of 2-21 days (if what I read today is accurate), then we’re nowhere out of the woods yet. It feels like it’s too early to declare victory against the spread of this thing here. Plus, consider that new local clusters are beginning to form in non-Chinese locations, and it may be that we dodge the first bullet, only to get hit by the second.

     

    Too early to know, I think.

     

    Here’s what I do know: If one judges the nastiness of this thing by the official version being handed us, it’s no big deal. If one looks at the actions being taken, on the other hand, prepare now. Don’t panic, just prepare.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:51am

    Reply to #3
    Ejh237

    Ejh237

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    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 29

    6+

    RE: Slow spread and deaths outside of China

    We have been looking at the Hopkins map grow every day since it came out. Remember, what was it, 2 weeks ago? when there was a large circle on Wuhan, and then a few little dots around it.  That took time, just like the stadium takes to fill (Please read the Crash Course, available on this site, if you haven’t), so does an R0 of even 3-4 take to grow.

    So, go look at that Hopkins map now, those little dots are becoming large. It takes time, unless we can get the R0 below 1, there are odds i wouldn’t take a bet against that we will see similar growth.

    Having pulled some purchases forward, just today I went back to order “another bracket” for my solar upgrade i’ve decided get in NOW.  Well, a set of brackets are up 32% in under a week. I know that, because last week i ordered a few sets, and realized i was one short.  Instead of $33.64, they were $44.84.  I can understand why our N100 full face respirators we ordered on 1/23/20 were up 300% just 3 days later, but we are already seeing it elsewhere.

    We all need to be prepared for both those circles on the map to start to grow nearer us, and for prices on nearly EVERYTHING you can still buy to be greatly increased.

    Best to all,

    Eric & Cindy

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:58am

    #58
    Matties

    Matties

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 98

    this "outside China" thing

    Too early to know, I think.

    I agree, but, so far so good.

    For me it started around 1 december. Around Christmas cases where starting up at the hospitals. Doctors warning, got dismissed because holidays coming. Then in januari the picture became more clear.

    That is one month. In early January a relative low number of Chinese went to Europe and US. Maybe not too many but quit a few infected visited.

    We have to see now a dramatic uptick of cases or we have to adapt the R0 over here.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 12:05pm

    Reply to #56
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 108

    Re: sick early or late

    I will use all measures to avoid or delay getting sick as long as possible!

    treatment advances, effective drugs, more knowledge, etc……all become greater the longer time goes by and should be much more advantageous than the idea of an early case to avoid overwhelmed healthcare system.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 12:50pm

    Reply to #40

    David

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 29 2011

    Posts: 35

    Why the Chinese Race meme on this site?

    Thank you greendoc for re-posting my linking to the paper that has much larger sample size and concludes Tabacco use is the correlation to greater ACE-2 and, thus, susceptiblity to 2019-nCoV.

    I posted that link on Friday, so why is the meme that Chinese race (or Chinese men specifically) are more susceptible to 2019-nCoV still running around this site?   Someone have a better report/research that they can point to?   Just wishful thinking, or?

    ” Thank you David (post #63) for posting the link to this paper
    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1  “

    David

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 12:52pm

    #59
    Drserendip

    Drserendip

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    Joined: Nov 22 2012

    Posts: 1

    4+

    Disinfection of surfaces

    In your podcast (youtube) this morning you mentioned that 1% bleach will take care of the surface. It may have been .5% I can’t remember and that is not the point of this entry. The one thing that is never mentioned is that when they test that to come up with a percentage they test it on a clean non-porous surface (think stainless steel). Most surfaces including stone counter tops are porous. The other is that dwell or contact time is critical in any disinfection. One of the reasons there is a problem with disinfection on surfaces, including in hospitals, is that dwell times or contact time (wet) is ignored. Wiping on and wiping off is insufficient and likely to create resistance to the anti-microbial. Bleach is really only a disinfectant when the hypochlorite level is above 6% and has a contact time of 10 minutes. The virus is fragile and probably does not need that time however we all too often sacrifice efficacy on the alter of efficiency.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 12:56pm

    #60

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 547

    3+

    David you need to talk to Andy

    Andy perhaps you and David can take this off line and do PM?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 12:58pm

    #61
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    Joined: Jan 22 2018

    Posts: 15

    5+

    For Chris or Adam

    Is this site undergoing denial of service attacks?

    It takes forever to load and sometimes, I get a page saying, “the server timed out.”

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 1:21pm

    #62
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 98

    3+

    The old “the server timed out.”

    Not again… Leave us kids alone…

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 1:42pm

    #63

    KugsCheese

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 863

    Cleaning non-porous surfaces Smart Clean?

    Anyone use SmartClean?  https://www.amazon.com/CleanSmart-Surface-Bacteria-Chemical-sanitizer/dp/B011AJRJZI/

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:03pm

    Reply to #32
    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Posts: 24

    1+

    Everyone have been quarantine in the area for almost a month. No one is working in the factories.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:07pm

    Reply to #56
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Posts: 88

    2+

    Tommy, sick early or late

    I had to laugh so hard it brought tears to my eyes.   So, I guess we to entertain alternative strategies of how to become ill.   I have heard of the strategy to get sick first to make sure you get a bed in ICU,  but to compare it to delay hoping for some sort of treatment later on ( an unknown ) is quite risky strategy.   I would think if you can manage to delay getting sick until that time – wouldnt you just delay it indefinitely.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:25pm

    Reply to #7
    kaczma

    kaczma

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    Joined: Sep 09 2019

    Posts: 5

    Coronavirus question

    I get it !!!

    Pretending won’t help you for sure , we are the target too !!!!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:26pm

    #64
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    4+

    I am really worried about my brother , would you be?

    I know I mentioned on the board elsewhere,  about they are clearly missing cases by the current testing criteria of the CDC.   Well, my brother, has been sick for about 2 weeks or so.  he has some sort of infection, that cannot be classified as a cold ( no sinusitis ) he did have a or may still have fever, but mostly what he has is a dry cough and hoarse voice which has persisted 10-14 days now.  and it did seem to improve about a week ago, but has now gotten worse.   His history is recent socialization with asian wife of brother-law,( dog-sitting )  who flew  a connecting flight through china on jan 15.    He also has had a history of travel to tahoe ( via san francisco ) about 5 days earlier.   We both noted that there is a high population of chinese in san fran.   So I just double checked the demographics – its 35.8% chinese.. I was shocked it was this high.  So, based on his presentation and his history would you be concerned?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:35pm

    Reply to #56
    NotQuiteReady

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    Reply to TreePlanter - Getting sick early or late?

    I’ve actually thought about this myself, and the definitive answer is LATER. Why?

    * I expect there to be more evidence-based treatments down the track. For now it is all guesstimation, experimentation and compassionate prescribing;

    * I’d like to know what will happen to those that are confirmed. We’ve seen the heartbreaking footage of military containment in China, and easily put it down to the CCP, however I’m starting to read some alarming articles about rushed laws in the West. Qld Australia rushed an extension to their emergency health regulations last week, extending their powers from a temporary 1 week coverage to a 3 month blanket coverage allowing police and other agencies “…various other powers to enforce and manage public health risks.” https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/state-government-to-push-through-new-coronavirus-emergency-laws-20200203-p53xf1.html

    The UK has just rushed through laws allowing them to “…hunt down and capture people if they may be infected or contaminated and could present a risk to public health”. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986189/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-warns-coronavirus-imminent-threat-British-public.html

    * There is little known about the long term effects of having had a case of nCov and having recovered. I have seen various records around lung tissue scarring from pneumonia, but otherwise, we know very little about the broader impact on the body and longer term effects. The fact that the bodies of the deceased are being burned so quickly, is also preventing a further, in-depth investigation into this disease through autopsy. So our knowledge of this virus is really only being gained in a reactive, superficial state, which means there is likely to be plenty about this that we are missing.

    I understand that second waves are sometimes worse than the first, however, I’ve seen early reports that suggest you may be able to get it again, having only weak immunity from the first exposure, so at this stage there doesn’t seem to be any benefit in contracting it early. Therefore I’ll duck and weave as long as possible.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:37pm

    Reply to #54
    Sparky1

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    Lol: Trump confirms...based on science or Xi spin? The shifting narrative.

    Ahhhh…another well-timed Tweet to quell public concerns and pump the markets! ‘Must be true ‘cuz President Xi told him so.  After all, China is now “open for business” so things are definitely improving–just look at the (cooked and under reported) data! Nothing to worry about, “…as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”  Poof, gone!

    Maybe we won’t need that nCoV vaccine that’s sure to be ready “soon” after all.  Or all those repurposed military bases and pop-up “hospitals” for quarantine. Maybe the crematoriums can stop running 24/7. Maybe the Wuhan BSL-4 lab can be used as a best-practice pandemic training facility, kinda like Tepco’s repurposing of the Fukashima Dai’ichi nuclear power plant and disaster. One can hope, right?

    Initially, the official narrative was that the coronavirus was “over there” and could be contained. That obviously wasn’t true. Now people are getting wise to the “nCoV isn’t as bad as the flu” narrative. And the “don’t listen to the profiteering trolls and conspiracy theorists” narrative is not quite working either. Hence, the shift to the “we’ve got it under control, the worst is behind us narrative”. Whew–I feel better already!

    Still, I’m more inclined watch what our “trusted” leaders and their minions do, rather than what they say.

    Coronavirus Spread Self-Sustaining, Won’t Stop With Warmer Weather

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-27/coronavirus-spread-won-t-stop-with-warmer-weather-cfr-video

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:44pm

    Reply to #64
    Sparky1

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    Nordicjack, brotherly concern

    I’m not a clinician so this is not medical advice. But personally, Yes, if it were my brother given the symptoms you’ve described I would advocate and assist in getting him tested asap. Be persistent, and take all necessary precautions to keep you and others from getting infected. Take care and I hope all goes well with your brother and loved ones. Please keep us posted to the extent you feel comfortable.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 2:57pm

    Reply to #23
    peakTheTruth

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    PCR is not complicated and doesn't take several days

    PCR is the workhorse technology of molecular biology, it takes hours not days, the only complication here is that you need to convert the RNA to DNA first, hence the RT bit of RT-pcr

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:02pm

    Reply to #64
    nordicjack

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    Sparky, your words of concern are appreciated

    I appreciate your opinion greatly,  Its very hard to know if our concerns are warranted or are just over-reacting or just paranoia.   My good sense would say it should be serious investigated as you suggest as well.  The question is will the medical profession.  He does not reside near me,  I will insist he sees a dr.    and i will try to make sure he advocates his case and travel contact history.. Will keep you posted.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:02pm

    Reply to #56
    Ben Burke

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    Early...

    Treeplanter,

    I’ve been thinking about this…. I’m inclined to go early…

    I’m not going to talk to many people about this – you get some funny looks from people. If I consider it likely that I will get a dose (of this, or the next one), then I’d sooner see if I’m able to recover sooner than later.

    I guess this depends a good deal on how things develop. Does recovering from ncov19 generally leave us with resilience? Who knows?

    I was going to post here this morning, asking if there are other Aussies reading this blog. Look at local news? Crickets. Nothing much seems to be developing. Of course, it’s early days and the weather (generally) warm.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:10pm

    #65
    MariaDWhite

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    Info from the Brighton UK case

    I live near Brighton and I know Brighton well. The information on the local news about the Brighton case is worrying:

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18221431.coronavirus-timeline-hove-mans-movements-diagnosis/

    https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2020/02/10/several-pupils-at-different-schools-in-brighton-and-hove-told-to-self-isolate/

    The man has been in a pub in a Saturday evening, when it’s most crowded and he may have infected any number of people that have no more connection to him than being in the same place at the same time. Worse, this particular pub is a rather big one, which makes it a favorite for family gatherings. It’s quite possible that some of those infected weren’t local but came for some sort of family event.

    Also, there is a chance that pupils at several different schools were infected. And there was a report about an asymptomatic child in China that infected a number of relatives. Maybe children are more likely to be asymptomatic for longer?

    In sort, I estimate the likelihood of an uncontrolled outbreak in Brighton is high. It strikes me as unlikely that they detect all the people that this man infected.

    Large numbers of people in Brighton actually work in London and go there by train. So an uncontrolled outbreak in Brighton would likely spread to the London underground pretty fast.

    I wonder whether the UK authorities would try to lock down Brighton if the number of cases went high enough. It would make sense to do in an effort to protect London, if it was spreading faster in Brighton than in London. But the logistics of attempting to do that would be a nightmare.

    My boss actually lives pretty close to where this man lived. The pub is about a hundred yards from my boss’ home. I have advised him not to be sociable with his neighbors until he knows which way the wind blows. But of course there is no telling what might happen. Does anybody have any further advice? (My workplace isn’t in Brighton but a nearby town).

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:27pm

    #66
    LabCat

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    Cruise Ships Will Ruin Media Narrative.

    I think we are all wise enough, or cynical enough to realize the popular media are given marching orders on what/how to report.

    The cruise ship bio-domes will, I hope, be too stark to go unnoticed.

    As I have said, if this were a hurricane, every commercial would be Lowe’s, Generac Generators, or Home Depot.

    There is no money to be made if people stay home.

    When was the last time you saw a prime-time beans & rice commercial?

    How much cash back will Capital One give you for not going on that vacation because flying is too risky?

    Think about it.

    Anderson Cooper and other “journalists” have been busted for dramaticizing storms by finding deep holes to stand in so as to make flooding seem worse.

    Do you think any of them are begging to board one of those ships?

    When we start seeing these pathetic Ernie Pyle wannabes wearing masks, then we will know the jig is up.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:39pm

    #67

    westcoastjan

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    Posts: 219

    2+

    Virus related cyber attacks - heads up

    Hackers capitalizing on the fear…. ugh!

    U.S. cybersecurity firm Sophos said last week that it had learned of a scam that used fake emails pretending to be safety instructions from the World Health Organization.

    Coronavirus-themed emails used by cybercriminals to spread malware, report says

    Be careful what you open or click on folks!

    Jan

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:40pm

    #68
    nordicjack

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    Are Chinese people more susceptible ?

    I know some people have questioned one reason for slow growth outside of china.    However lets look at the cruise ship, are these all chinese or asian?    and how about those 5 britons in french alps ski resort.  two of them are physicians in UK..  are they not susceptible??

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 3:47pm

    Reply to #54
    Nate

    Nate

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    Life in Wuhan

    Trump confirmed again his believe that with warmer weather the virus will retreat.

    A coworker from Wuhan told me the Chinese leadership decided long ago not to heat homes during the winter south of the Yellow River.  This includes Wuhan.  I asked him if the windows were closed to maintain some heat, and he said the humidity will spike and mildew will take over.  Windows are kept open all winter.  This time of the year the temperatures are about -10C.  He thought hospitals would vary on heat – some would have it, some won’t.

    Cities north of the Yellow river (Beijing) utilize coal generated steam and pump it through pipes.  The air quality is horrible after every November 2nd.

    Side note – he has visited family in Wuhan frequently and ALWAYS comes back to the states sick.

    My take is that Wuhan and large cities in China are a biological and chemical cesspools.  And when you throw in no heat during the middle of winter, I can’t image a decent survival rate.  I don’t know if the virus will retreat with warmer weather, but a case can be made for reduced mortality during warmer weather.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:06pm

    #69

    Mr. Fri

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    High SO2 Levels

    The charts with high SO2 output really bother me. Is that really from people’s bodies burning? There’s not much else that can account for those high SO2 levels. If so, how sad to have your loved ones burn in what must be a giant inferno.

    If someone had the time, I’d think they could go through SO2 readings from the past year and see what levels correlate to massive burning of pigs from the pig virus in various areas of China. Perhaps the increased SO2 levels from a known number of pigs burned could be correlated to the mass of human bodies needed to reach certain SO2 levels. It wouldn’t give an absolute number, but it could give an order of magnitude estimate to know how far off are China’s reported deaths.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:16pm

    Reply to #47
    nigel

    nigel

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    Hey Centroid, regarding ibuprofen

    Ibuprofen is an NSAID, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are members of a drug class that reduces pain, decreases fever, prevents blood clots, and in higher doses, decreases inflammation.

    Don’t use ibuprofen if you aren’t in pain, too many will eat away your stomach lining. I’m not a doctor, and this isn’t medical advice, but if you have something that reduces inflammation, it’s better than not having it.

    If you assume you are going to get the corona virus, then focus on things to keep you hydrated, things that are nutritional. Go an get 5 days of soup, something you can make easily if you are sick, something that will hydrate and provide nutrition.

    Get another say 21 days of food for when you are quarantined.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:18pm

    #70

    Quercus bicolor

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    7+

    Herbal antibiotics

    I just watched Chris’ new video, ”
    Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing?

    (Up on youtube, but not here yet – probably to reduce bandwidth problems).  He discusses potential antibiotic supply chain interruptions since most of our antibiotics are manufactured in China or with Chinese manufactured precursors.  Since secondary bacterial pneumonia is a fairly likely outcome of viral pneumonia, this could be a big problem.

    So, may I suggest: Herbal Antibiotics by Stephen Harrod Buhner?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 4:50pm

    #71
    SteveW

    SteveW

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    Deaths outside China: Diamond Princess

    With the infection count already up to 130 there are suggestions that the entire ship be tested, something that in my opinion should have been started last week. As peakTheTruth said it’s not complicated and takes hours not days. In the olden days I used to run PCR in 2-3 hours using gel electrophoreis to detect products. Now the whole cocktail can be put in 96 or 384 well microtitre plates, produce a fluorescent signal if positive, be read by a plate reader and uploaded into a computer. It’s all automated. One protocol runs the reaction inside 30 minutes, the reading takes seconds. I don’t however understand the Chinese reports of negative tests on affected persons.

    The contribution that the Diamond Princess cases will make to our knowledge should be the fraction of mild, moderate and severe cases and their resolution in a sophisticated medical setting. This ought to be our best source of information on the disease prognosis. It might be a little skewed since the cruise passenger demographic tends toward a more mature group.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:02pm

    Reply to #59
    Terry L

    Terry L

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    The half-life of the concentration of bleach

    I recently read that the half-life of bleach is about 1 year (if I remember correctly). So if my bleach is 1 year old (from purchase date? from manufacturing date?), I double the amount of bleach that I’m about to dilute. If 2 years old, I use quadruple the amount of bleach.

    P.S. I’ve been marking the purchase date on bottles of bleach when I buy them, and since I get them at Costco (a big-box store), the turnover in inventory makes it likely that they’re about as fresh as one can get them.

    Terry L

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 5:28pm

    #72
    Lightning17

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    Paper linking flu shots to increased risk (4X) of non-flu respitory illness

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:21pm

    #73

    Mark Cochrane

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    On the apparent slow spread of the virus outside of China

    There is a fair amount of speculation about the apparent slow spread of the virus outside of China. I would like to point out that this is most likely an apparent change not a real phenomenon.

    If we start with the great Wuhan diaspora of 5 million people before the quarantine on January 23 consider the following.

    1. Assuming that some people were infected and perhaps spent the next day flying internationally, what would you expect? The R0 is ~4.  You don’t necessarily expect transmissions to happen all at once but for the sake of argument say it did on that flight.

    2. Now 4 new people are infected and head back to the rest of the world. If it take on average 5 days to even start getting sick you have some people getting what appears to be a mild flu around Jan 28.

    3. If they the infect 4 more people (for arguments sake on this day but a few might be earlier and a few later) there are now 4 new infections at whatever location they landed (e.g. New York).

    4. Five days later (Feb 2) those people start feeling ill and have spread the virus to 16 more people.

    5. By Feb 7, the New York (or any other location) outbreak has reached 64 new people but only 21 (16+4+1) appear ill with a flu like illness. Serious complications arise after the second week in 20% of the affected people so maybe a couple have gotten pneumonia-like symptoms and are in the hospital.

    6. Does anyone think that the medical staff is going to flag 1 or 2 new cases of pneumonia in NY as potential corona virus? Likely there is just one patient in any given hospital. They are not testing every patient in the country (any country) for corona virus even if they have pneumonia.

    7. Fast forward a couple day to Feb 12. 256 more people have been infected. Still just a handful with serious complications spread throughout NY. No one will notice anything unusual.

    8. It may be a few weeks yet before anyone notices that there is an unusual outbreak that can’t be explained by normal flu infections.

    By the time there are enough cases to be flagged as unusual, chances are that there will be many hundreds of infected people circulating in the population. In short, by the time we realize we have a problem it will be far too late to actually do much about it. We don’t have the capacity to test everyone and so we will always be playing catch up. With an R0 of 4 or more that’s a fools game. Welcome to the pandemic…

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:22pm

    #74
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Potent neutralization of 2019 novel coronavirus by recombinant ACE2-Ig

     

     

    This looks promising.  I wonder how difficult/expensive this would be to ramp up dramatically if it proved effective in a clinical trial on humans.

    2019-nCoV, which is a novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019, has caused at least infected 11,844 as of Feb 1, 2020. However, there is no specific antiviral treatment or vaccine currently. Very recently report had suggested that novel CoV would use the same cell entry receptor, ACE2, as the SARS-CoV. In this report, we generated a novel recombinant protein by connecting the extracellular domain of human ACE2 to the Fc region of the human immunoglobulin IgG1. An ACE2 mutant with low catalytic activity was also used in the study. The fusion proteins were then characterized. Both fusion proteins has high affinity binding to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV and exerted desired pharmacological properties. Moreover, fusion proteins potently neutralized SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV in vitro. As these fusion proteins exhibit cross-reactivity against coronaviruses, they could have potential applications for diagnosis, prophylaxis, and treatment of 2019-nCoV.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2020/02/02/2020.02.01.929976.full.pdf

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:24pm

    Reply to #40
    Ejh237

    Ejh237

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    Posts: 29

    Eesh!!! Meme? Or Hoping it’s Chinese men?

    Yikes David, I would hope people in this group would not consider it a meme, nor wish ill on anyone based on race, etc. I’m not sure I would want to be a part of such a group.

     

    It’s good to remember, not everyone has been living and breathing this every day.

     

    David, the raw stats point to Male greatly over Female in infections.  Also, the fact that it seems that the growth outside of China is a factor. Honestly, I just don’t think we understand that 1 person, even with a 3 R0 is only going to infect so many… It takes time for that number to hockey stick. Also, there has been talk of it being much greater risk for smokers, and Chinese men out smoke women by a GREAT number. I assume we know less than we even think we know… and that’s not a lot.

    Best all, be safe and be a sane and kind voice in the trying times we are in, and are coming

    -Eric and Cindy

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:33pm

    #75

    sand_puppy

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    For a city of 1 million, how many will need ICU beds?

    Just watched Chris’ latest video where he summarizes the best guesses on the numbers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNArvGCBgJ4

    He uses Neil Ferguson’s group’s numbers (here)

    Asymptomatic and mild respiratory infection  80%

    Serious infection (viral pneumonia needing hospitalization)  15%

    Critical (ICU level care) 5%

    Death  1%  (Range  of 0.5% – 4%)*

    So you have a city like San Jose, California with a population of 1 million.  What kind of medical care will be needed?

    Hospital beds with IVs and Oxygen — 150,000

    ICU beds with ventilators/ECMO — 50,000

    Deaths** — 10,000

    A very rough recollection of the numbers of hospital beds available in San Jose (where I used to work) is ~ 2,000 beds total with maybe 100 – 150 ICU beds.  Normal hospital occupancy is ~90%+ and goes to 100%+ during the normal winter flu season.

    Almost all of the ICU beds are full all of the time.

    San Jose will have a big problem caring for these projected 50,000 ICU patients.

    ——————–

    *CRF estimated at 18% in Wuhan!

    **with a range of deaths up to 100,000 in the setting of an overwhelmed medical system.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:40pm

    #76
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Good overview of CFR, etc.

    2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.4414/smw.2020.20203
    Publication Date: 07.02.2020
    Swiss Med Wkly. 2020;150:w20203

    Battegay Manuela, Kuehl Richarda, Tschudin-Sutter Saraha, Hirsch Hans H.abc, Widmer Andreas F.a, Neher Richard A.d

    Estimating and predicting the extent and lethality of the 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, originating in Wuhan/China is obviously challenging, reflected by many controversial statements and reports. Unsurpassed to date, an ever-increasing flow of information, immediately available and accessible online, has allowed the description of this emerging epidemic in real-time [1]. The first patients were reported in Wuhan on December 31st 2019 [2]. Only a few days later, Chinese researchers identified the etiologic agent now known as the 2019-nCoV and published the viral sequence [3]. New data on the virus, its characteristics and epidemiology become available 24/7 and are often shared via informal platforms and media [4]. Yet, key questions remain largely unanswered.

    How is the virus transmitted, how long is the incubation period, what is the role of asymptomatic infected, what is the definite reproductive number R0, how long is viral shedding persisting after fading of symptoms, who is at risk for a severe course, and ultimately, how high is the case fatality rate?

    Accurate answers are critical for predicting the outbreak dynamics, to tailor appropriate and effective prevention measures, and to prepare for a potential pandemic. Precise estimates of the case fatality rate and the fraction of infections that require hospitalization are critical to balance the socioeconomic burden of infection control interventions against their potential benefit for mankind. Hence, one of the most important figures to determine is the rate of asymptomatic and mild cases allowing to put severe courses and death rates into accurate context.

    At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude. Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts – accounting for this delay increasing the estimate of the case fatality rate. On the other hand, cases in official statistics are likely a severe underestimate of the total – accounting for this underestimate will decrease the case fatality rate. The time between diagnosis and death/recovery and the degree of underreporting will vary over time as well as between cities and countries. A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present. Figure 1 illustrates how these uncertainties manifest themselves using currently available data.

    fullscreen
    Figure 1
    Uncertainties of naive case count estimates. This graph shows how the ratio of the number of confirmed deaths and case counts changed over time. Case counts are corrected for 3-fold or 30-fold under-reporting (solid and dashed lines, respectively) and are taken 2, 4, and 7 days prior to the date of the count of confirmed death. The latter is meant to illustrate the effect of the delay between diagnosis and death or recovery. This actual delay is likely longer than one week. Data source: https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data.

    Better estimates could be derived from large-scale investigations, in particular, in the region of the epidemic’s origin. Still, population-based testing of respiratory secretions by nucleic acid amplification testing (NAT) for 2019-nCoV would most likely underestimate the scale of the outbreak, as asymptomatic patients or patients after recovery from infection may no longer be NAT-positive. A sensitive 2019-nCoV-specific serological assay is needed to firmly assess the rate of past exposure and may help to assess herd immunity.

    One intriguing aspect of the outbreak so far is the discrepancy between the estimates of the case fatality rate reported from Hubei province, from different regions of China and from other countries. As of February 7, 2020, 30’536 have been confirmed. Thereof, 22’112 occurred in the Hubei province of China with a death toll of 619 (= 2.8%). This contrasts with 16 deaths among 8’702 recorded cases in other regions of China and further countries, suggesting at first glance a case fatality rate of 0.18%. The uncertainties and spatio-temporal variation discussed above could explain this divergence:

    The higher case fatality rate reported from Wuhan may be overestimated

    • The true number of exposed cases affected in Wuhan may be vastly underestimated. With a focus on thousands of serious cases, mild or asymptomatic courses that possibly account for the bulk of the 2019-nCoV infections might remain largely unrecognized, in particular during the influenza season.
    • Under-detection of mild or asymptomatic cases may be further fueled after further growth of the outbreak, as healthcare-facilities and testing capacities in Wuhan have reached their limits.

    Accordingly, the official numbers of both cases and deaths reported from Wuhan represent the “tip of the iceberg”, potentially skewing case fatality estimates towards patients presenting with more severe disease and fatal outcome. As the current measures in Wuhan aim at slowing the spread, other regions of China and countries gained critical time for preparations permitting to better track cases from the first occurrence of the virus in their populations. Thus, estimates deriving from these settings may be more accurate. That case fatality rates appear to decrease overall renders this hypothesis plausible.

    The lower case fatality rates outside Wuhan may be underestimated

    • As the epidemic arrived later in other regions and countries, there may be a delay of fatal cases arising and their reporting. The low number of documented recovered cases might indicate that days and weeks can pass until death occurs. Hence, the numbers, e.g. in Guangdong with 970 cases and no death occurring, might be false low because severe cases might still have a deadly outcome.
    • Testing patients with severe respiratory diseases in outside of China might have been delayed so that unclear deaths are not yet being attributed to the coronavirus. This is unlikely at this point as international awareness has increased, but may have resulted in an underestimation of attributable deaths previously.

    Case fatality rates may truly differ among different regions of the world

    • Supportive care is crucial for severe respiratory disease. Differences in case fatality rates may be caused by differences in medical care during a large epidemic versus care for single cases. Hence, the large-scale capacities for medical care in the Hubei province, and specifically large-scale intensive care and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) may lag behind the epidemic. This hypothesis is supported by the construction of two hospitals in record time.
    • There are different susceptibilities to the 2019-Novel Coronavirus in different regions of China as well as different regions of the world. However, as this is the second coronavirus emerging from China, it is unlikely that herd-immunity is lower in this region of the world, than in others. Immunogenetics and socioeconomic factors however, may potentially contribute to differences in susceptibilities to the disease.

    Current authorities such as the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (USA), the European Centers for Disease Control as well as renowned journals are challenged by the rapid generation and dissemination of data, largely published on social media platforms. Thus, new approaches will have to be defined to validate the accuracy of such posts in times where multiple tweets per second are published, sometimes with misleading, sometimes with important information. Modelling the 2019-nCoV epidemic remains challenging as relevant questions are still unanswered. So, despite the dramatic increase of rapidly available data, public health authorities remain torn back and forth between the options of overreacting and frightening the population or underreacting putting citizen at risk in their aim to provide advice to countries and individuals on measures to protect health and prevent the spread of this outbreak.

    https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:44pm

    #77
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Posts: 144

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    Reducing mortality from 2019-nCoV: host-directed therapies should be an option

    All three coronaviruses induce excessive and aberrant non-effective host immune responses that are associated with severe lung pathology, leading to death.

    Similar to patients with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, some patients with 2019-nCoV develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with characteristic pulmonary ground glass changes on imaging. In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm, which is characterised by increased plasma concentrations of interleukins 2, 7, and 10, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, interferon-γ-inducible protein 10, monocyte chemoattractant protein 1, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha, and tumour necrosis factor α.

    In those who survive intensive care, these aberrant and excessive immune responses lead to long-term lung damage and fibrosis, causing functional disability and reduced quality of life.

    Specific drugs to treat 2019-nCoV will take several years to develop and evaluate. In the meantime, a range of existing host-directed therapies that have proven to be safe

    could potentially be repurposed to treat 2019-nCoV infection. Several marketed drugs with excellent safety profiles such as metformin, glitazones, fibrates, sartans, and atorvastin, as well as nutrient supplements and biologics could reduce immunopathology, boost immune responses, and prevent or curb ARDS.

     

     

     Zinc and other metal-containing formulations appear to have anti-viral activity,

     are safe, cheap, and readily available. These formulations could be used as adjuncts to monotherapy or as combinational therapies with cyclosporine, lopinavir–ritonavir, interferon beta‑1b, ribavirin, remdesivir, monoclonal antibodies, and anti-viral peptides targeting 2019-nCoV.

    Tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody that targets the interleukin 6 receptor, has a good safety profile. Monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies to 2019-nCoV could be developed for post-exposure prophylaxis.

    Ongoing trials of cellular therapies for treatment of ARDS could be expanded to treatment of seriously ill patients with 2019-nCoV infection. Cellular therapy,

    using mesenchymal stromal cells from allogeneic donors, has been shown to reduce non-productive inflammation and affect tissue regeneration and is being evaluated in phase 1/2 trials in patients with ARDS (NCT02804945NCT03608592). Infection with 2019-nCoV appears to be initially associated with an increased Th2 response,

    which might reflect a physiological reaction to curb overt inflammatory responses, a clinical phenomenon that guided the optimal timing of interferon treatment in patients with sepsis, resulting in increased survival.

    Interleukin 17 blockade might benefit those patients who have a 2019-nCoV infection and increased plasma concentration of interleukin 17.

    The isolation and short-term expansion of anti-viral directed T cells has been proven to be a life-saving procedure in patients after autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation with cytomegalovirus infection.

    Expansion of anti-2019-nCoV-specific T cells, as cellular drugs, could aid to prepare T-cell products for the adjunct treatment of patients with severe 2019-nCoV infection.

    Several unique opportunities to evaluate a range of treatment interventions at the peak of the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks were missed due to avoidable delays and subsequent decline of the numbers of cases, leaving numerous questions about coronavirus pathogenesis unanswered. Disappointingly, treatment trials registered for MERS-CoV are still not complete. As the 2019-nCoV continues to spread and evolve, and the numbers of deaths rise exponentially, advancing new therapeutic development becomes crucial to minimise the number of deaths from 2019-nCoV infection.
    We declare no competing interests. AZ is co-principal investigator of the Pan-African Network on Emerging and Re-emerging Infections (PANDORA-ID-NET), funded by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, supported under Horizon 2020, the EU’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, and a National Institutes of Health Research senior investigator. MM is a member of the innate immunity advisory group of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and his work is funded by the Champalimaud Foundation.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:51pm

    #78
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Update on my brother

    Just spoke with him again today,  he states others he knows at work are sick as well with his respiratory illness.   But he describes them as days ( 9-12 )behind his presentation.    He is probably patient 0 at his office.  He is now complaining of shortness of breath and difficulty of breathing and considering a trip to the ER.   Again,  he did not travel to china or come into contact with a confirmed case of NcoV.  However,  he did have direct contact with a family member’s wife who traveled through china on jan 15.   He also has a history of flying back from Tahoe via san fran on early am of the 12th.  and he developed symptoms around jan 21-23  and has been sick hoarse and with dry cough and now seems be having difficulty breathing   I feel he will be dismissed even though , his clinical presentation is clearly not the flu and not a cold.     I am including the problem with the CDC.. in the below flowchart for clinicians to evaluate a person for the Ncov – you can clearly see he does not meet the criteria.  But how do many others that have been diagnosed like the 4 britons at the french ski resort?/ was my brother not at a ski resort?  frequented by local nearby high chinese population?  I am pretty sure there are more asians in san fran ( 36%)  than the french

    alps.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:57pm

    #79
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    One last word...TH2 dominance

    Sorry to taake up so much space, but these above papers are great summaries,

    The last, just above paper mentions that infection with 2019-nCoV appears to be initially associated with an increased Th2 response.

    This is the best layperson explanation of how to balance Th1/Th2 immune response  using OTC supplements, herbs and nutrition that is evidence based.

    https://selfhacked.com/blog/supplements-people-th2-dominant/

     

    Also, some people won the genetic lottery when it comes to a highly efficient, capable and balanced immune response to viral infections. These people, even though may show some initial symptoms, might not be shedding large amounts of viral particles in their naso-pharngeal secretions. So there swabs might test false negative initially. This phenomenom was seen in SARS.  Also, shedding large numbers of viral particles was a bad sign….those folks tended to have higher mortality.  Also, even after symptom resolution and discharge from the hospital some SARS patients shed viral particles up to 80 days after being sent home.

     

    Nasopharyngeal shedding of severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus is associated with genetic polymorphismshttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16652313

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:04pm

    #80
    phil hecksel

    phil hecksel

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    3+

    Flu Vaccine, 5.5x more respiratory infections

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:22pm

    Reply to #77
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Most ports in China are on shutdown

    That’s a great list Doc. We now know most of it is produced in China but China is closed for business with all major ports shut down. Secondly, domestic Chinese demand has already used most of the global supply of available masks and gloves. We need operating factories there soon to get the rest of the world supplied again. In my own town I have heard that local Chinese have bought up all the available masks and some medications and couriered them back to China! What are the rest of us supposed to do when infection arrives here and those ports are still closed? Is this Xi’s revenge?

    Sorry, we can’t supply you?

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:23pm

    Reply to #56
    Adrienne13

    Adrienne13

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    Any Aussies?

    Another Aussie here, been reading and watching for past month or so now. Located in Top North where the “evacuees” from Wuhan were brought to on the weekend. Trying to get as much info as possible regarding facts and possible scenarios to plan and prepare accordingly. Best wishes.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:31pm

    Reply to #73
    Tom Sammy

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    Re: Slow Spread Mark Cochrane

    Mark – I think your assessment is spot on.  I too was thinking how the cases might manifest themselves in the US.  The CDC protocol for testing says only use for China exposure or indirect exposure to known NCoV person plus primary symptoms.  This means most folks going to hospital as new potential cases will not be tested and will likely get misdiagnosed (until a cluster or other anomaly appears).   I wonder what cities these might pop up first in.  A worldpop risk study says Los Angeles and New York City are the top 2 US travel destinations for Chinese during the lunar new year period  (Jan. 10th to Feb. 18th).   These cities might have had many potential visits by China residents prior to the beginning of airline restrictions towards late January.

    See page 14 in the report – https://www.worldpop.org/resources/docs/china/WorldPop-coronavirus-spread-risk-analysis-v1-25Jan.pdf

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:32pm

    #81
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Re: Flu Vaccine 5.5 increased risk of other illnesses

    This is the second study of this nature, i have read on the topic in 3 days.  I always assumed this anyway.   And i do not believe in medicating a healthy person or child.   So,  yeah.. It is one thing to get a vaccine when there is imminent risk,  but to vax like they do with children now and for illness that do not harm you permanently, is absurd PERIOD.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:36pm

    #82
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Tom, Slow speed spread

    I just read something about georgia dept of health is working with the cdc in evaulating potential patients via feedback from practitioners.. It looks the practitioners are seeing something and speaking with the dept of health.. it looks like the CDC will soon change the criteria..   Again , slow to move their ass,  but this was dumb for CDC to set this criteria.   its going to kill a lot of people for the delay.. I cant believe these people are real drs running this.. really.  i am going to apply for a job there. oh yeah. i havent been employeed by big pharma.. so i guess that wont happen.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:48pm

    #83

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

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    Wuhan, the queue for the hospital. Coronavirus

    China changes counting scheme to lower Wuhan virus numbers

    TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The daily reports of Wuhan virus infections in Communist China will likely begin to drop as the government has decided to stop counting patients who test positive for the disease but do not exhibit symptoms as “confirmed cases.”

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490

    =================================

    Shanghai, Chongqing also locked down as Wuhan virus spreads

    Zhu said that the measures include strict controls over those coming and going and that those who enter must register and have their temperature checked. If someone’s body temperature is found to be abnormal, local authorities must be notified, and the person in question will be examined by medical personnel.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874064

    ===================

    Wuhan, the queue for the hospital. Coronavirus

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0k5l9nHwjE

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:09pm

    #84
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    There may be no way to avoid the Coronavirus

    I have been reading a lot lately and trying to piece it all together. In my house we have come to the conclusion that since this virus is now out of the bottle (so to speak) and can’t be put back inside, that we might just accept infection as inevitable sometime in the next 6 to 12 months.

    There really is nowhere to run and hide from this kind of illness with such a high infection rate.

    What that means in other words is taking precautions but perhaps more importantly, doing the things that will reduce known risk factors. We cannot get younger but we can quit smoking for example.

    And we can take steps to reduce hypertension. Since age, smoking and hypertension are listed among the major factors that create the highest risk we will deal with those within our power while just practicing good hygiene.

    One thing we decided in our house was to avoid handshaking from now on. It is not such an extreme idea anymore. Maybe we will embrace the Japanese tradition of simply bowing to guests instead. Lol!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:19pm

    Reply to #74
    SteveW

    SteveW

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    Monoclonal ACE2-IgG antibody

    This indeed looks promising for targeting the spike protein and viral destruction by the immune system. There is 20 years of experience producing monoclonal Abs in pharmaceutical quantities. US pricing (~10X than elsewhere) is somewhat expensive but a large patient group might allow reasonable pricing. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29461857

    There is also the issue of patient tolerance. The first time I took a monoclonal with NSAID, I neglected to take a second 4 hour later dose (not suggested) and spiked a 100 fever. One time issue.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:24pm

    #85
    yagasjai

    yagasjai

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    More Info In Mainstream Media

    I am not often in the car to listen to the radio at 9am on a Monday morning, but this morning I was. And I was actually rather relieved to hear a local NPR station have a “roundtable” discussion about the coronavirus in which the participants were actively critiquing how the media has downplayed the risk and referred to an article in the New York Times that covered the exponential nature of the spread if R0 is over one. Sounded like the article used an R0 of 2.6 but I was pleased to see that this critical information is actually being discussed in mainstream media sources, and I can’t help but think, despite the pushback Chris has received, he is actually influencing things in a direction of more people actually thinking about the data, which is what we want. So three cheers for CM and the crew at PP. I’m so glad you are giving us this “lens” through which we are watching things unfold. Felt the same way about the Crash Course. And I really appreciate watching you update the key points as more data emerges. You are actually doing what you said you would do, and that is base your reporting on the data and that the reporting will change when the data does. That is integrity. And in a world of so much misinformation and misdirection, your integrity speaks volumes about you and remains in tact despite whatever pushback they try to throw at you. Thank you!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:39pm

    Reply to #78
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Nordicjack, thoughts on nCoV testing for your brother

    Hi nordicjack,

    I’m hoping that some of the physicians, nurses, paramedics or others within the PP community will add their better informed perspective on your brother’s situation. Your brother’s symptoms are concerning, whether or not they are related to nCoV.

    Here are some of my thoughts from purely a layperson’s perspective:

    Here’s the link to the latest CDC Interim 2019 Person Under Investigation (PUI) form that health personnel will need to complete to send to his local/state health dept.: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/pui-form.pdf. It may be helpful for you to review and complete your copy of the form with your brother to help ensure you accurately capture key clinical information in terms that comport with clinician’s screening criteria.

    The CDC flowchart you provided is not definitive as the CDC states that, “The criteria are intended to serve as guidance for evaluation. Patients should be evaluated and discussed with public health departments on a case-by-case basis if their clinical presentation or exposure history is equivocal (e.g., uncertain travel or exposure).” (Source)

    So the CDC criteria and PUI (“Interim”, now a few weeks old) are to be used as a guide, deferring to state and local health depts., in consultation with local health care providers, to test, identify and confirm cases. My point being that if persistent, you/your brother may be able to make the case for nCoV testing given the recognized high R0 of the virus, potential for person-to-person transmission, and the awareness that the virus is now self-spreading in the US (so your brother could have been infected without having met the Interim PUI travel criteria or exposure to an nCoV confirmed patient). If state and other designated labs are now CDC-authorized to perform tests, it might be a bit easier to get tested, and get results back quicker (for now).

    Is the woman (wife of a family member) who traveled to China showing any nCoV symptoms? If not, she could still be asymptomatic, but either way this would be helpful information to provide the health/medical workers. You/he should also include information about any co-morbid health conditions your brother has. Inform them that other workers in his office are showing similar symptoms as your brother.

    Very important: CDC/health depts. advise calling ahead before going to any health/medical facility or provider to ensure they are prepared to properly screen the suspected nCOV patient while preventing exposure and possible infection of others. If you are not able to go with him, is there someone else who can go that can help advocate on his behalf? Or can you be linked via phone to the health/medical provider?

    Again, I hope other PP members with more appropriate expertise can add their perspective.

    Wishing you and your brother well. Hang in there!

     

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:45pm

    #86
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Masks and PPE

    As has been stated before, the use of masks is primarily to prevent spreading the illness if you are sick (even if sick and without symptoms) unless you go with with the full sealing ‘gas mask’ type respirator with eye protection.  The only step above that is the powered “moon suit” HAZMAT suit.  Aerosols can enter through the eyes, ears, nose and mouth, as well as open wounds/scratches, etc.

    Due to the reported long survival rate on surfaces (up to 9 days), the best advice it to go inside, close the door and stay there for the next 4 weeks if an epidemic strikes in your area.

    While there is a conspiracy thread weaving through these conversations (I’m not completely sold that it’s 100% natural either), the precautions for dealing with biological agents are the same:

    Nobody new in, nobody goes out and, if they go out, they stay out.

    Decontamination in a pandemic (or other mass-casualty scenario) is a major pain.  Here’s a few  sample videos on YouTube to show you why:

    (If you would like others, search for terms like NBC Decontamination training video or CBRN Decon training video.  Even DuPont has helpful videos on YT).

    The good news is that you may be able to reuse some of your PPE (since it is unlikely that you would sue yourself) by washing it in a bleach solution.  I don’t know if some of the masks would hold up to soaking in 90% isopropyl alcohol and air-drying.  I’m not going to get excited about it; I live in one of those backwards Third World places where people sneeze and cough and spit all over the place, public hospitals rarely stock soap or toilet paper for fear that the public will steal them and pride in a job well done is a crap shoot.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:56pm

    #87
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Re PPE

    There has been a lot of information saying that surgical type masks offer no real protection from the virus.  I disagree..  Although, they are truly designed to limit the exposure of others from the wearer,  they would be somewhat affective if you were to have a conversation with a bank teller or cashier from the ordinary saliva spittle that may spray from one during normal speech.   I would not expect it to be helpful in a setting where you were in hospital waiting area and lots of people coughing or a movie theater or bus or airplane with coughing.    What i normally due even during flu season , is stay away from anyone coughing ( ie while shopping )   at least 20 feet if possible and not inhale for 30 seconds if some has coughed closer.    But the other reason they can offer protection is as reminder to not touch your face.. I am pretty well trained to not do this while out in public – but a mask can train someone to be more cognizant of touching or cross contamination of surface touching.   So, for basic extra caution for shopping it should fine – to keep peoples spittle from getting on your face in normal conversation, and for learning to avoid facial contact it is purposeful.  But by no means would expect to hang out in a room of sick people with this and expect protection unless for just a few moments. Why are you hanging out around  a bunch of sick people unless you are health care provider or on public transport?   elevators can pose a hazard as well .

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:04pm

    Reply to #86
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Posts: 88

    Re masks and ppe - and washing

    Just for reference , i have washed dust masks and surgical masks many times before and they do hold up pretty well if they are decent quality,     I have not washed these for sterile purposes , but for air borne contaminants… particulate.. from light industrial work and building ..

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:13pm

    Reply to #78
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Sparky, regarding my brother

    The information you provide is greatly appreciated.  I will pass on the information to him and he will be better advised to speak with his clinicians regarding his condition and potential of serious illness or ncov

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:23pm

    #88
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Posts: 40

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    Brother of NordicJack

    I hope that anyone who experiences shortness of breath visits the Emergency room/Acute Care as soon as possible.  Mayo Clinic shows why Corona viruses are not the first concern:

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/symptoms/shortness-of-breath/basics/causes/sym-20050890

    You can have a legitimate illness without exposure to the Wuhan strain.  Anyone can have a heart attack from reading the news.  Please seek help if you are ill.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:50pm

    Reply to #2
    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

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    The other thing that's different about the cruise ship

    …is the extended close proximity, and the shared ventilation systems. Their environment forces more contagion, so I don’t think they’re a good representative sampling for those living outside of closely-crowded circumstances.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:14am

    Reply to #2
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Cruise ship as proxy for dense living areas

    The cruise ship is a good proxy for people living in densely-populated areas.  When you consider that most of the world lives in urban areas, it’s an important reference point.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/urban-vs-rural-majority?year=2019

    Cruise ship is also a good proxy for any institutional setting: large corporate workplace that shares a company cafeteria, university, prison, military installation, etc.

    Country folks forget that the trucks and trains that haul stuff to their towns come from ports in these densely urbanized areas.

    I can imagine a liberalization of automated transport rules in the event of a mutation and nationwide lockdown – only robots will be cruising the highways, so it’s safe to introduce the technology.  Convenient, yes?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 12:49pm

    #89
    km64

    km64

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    Full testing for Diamond Princess passengers and crew planned

    I found the following interesting with the cruise ship as proxy discussion.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/175-now-infected-with-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-including-quarantine-officer/

    As a report by Reuters noted, roughly 80 percent of the passengers are aged 60 or older, with 215 being in their 80s and nearly a dozen over 90. Those age groups have been among the most vulnerable demographics in the outbreak overall.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 1:42pm

    Reply to #89
    kunga

    kunga

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    Diamond Princess

    The whole situation seems weird to me.  First of all, why would a passenger board in Yokohama, Japan, then get off in Hong Kong? Is this typical, to only go part way? Also, how did the ship officials find out the passenger was infected with Corona virus?

    Is there one place on the ship where everyone gathered and all touched or consumed or breathed the same air as the infected passenger?

    Also, is it harboring in the ventilation system or food prep area?  Is it surviving longer than nine days outside the body?   The situation seems to me there is some skullduggery afoot.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 1:59pm

    #90

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 547

    Air Circulation

    The air circulation system must be inter-connected.  Certainly each cabin does not have an independent air system so the people are just sitting ducks, waiting for their turn or hoping they will miraculously be spared.  They are a living science experiment.

    Please correct me if I am wrong?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:05pm

    #91

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 547

    Filters?

    Would love to hear that the cruise ships have state-of-the-art filters that filter out viruses down to ?  so as to protect each and every passenger.  Anyone know about cruise-ship air circulation?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 3:55pm

    Reply to #89

    Quercus bicolor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 288

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    Got off the ship in Hong Kong ...

    Because he was ill.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:05pm

    #92
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    Posts: 11

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    Hubei numbers today: 14,480 confirmed 242 deaths

    If this doesn’t cause some panic, I’ll be surprised.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:10pm

    Reply to #92
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 108

    Re: Hubei numbers today: 14,480 confirmed 242 deaths

    Wow, any theories on what happened?  (Could they be working through a backlog?)

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:11am

    Reply to #92
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 40

    The story circulating about the sudden jump in numbers is due to a change in how the numbers are reported.  They’re now counting people they were not counting before.  Same 100 people on the hospital ward, but now 82% are nCoV/COVID19 sufferers instead of 61% (numbers are inaccurate, used for demonstration of concept).

     

    More diagnoses may also reflect greater number of testing kits available.

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