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    New Martenson Report Ready – It’s Hit the Fan

    by Chris Martenson

    Sunday, May 17, 2009, 7:35 PM

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.  In this report, we stroll through the recent data and I make the case that there’s no need to wait for any clearer signs that "things have changed" than the ones we already have.  If you are waiting for TSHTF (explained in the article) then you can stop waiting.

Link to It Has Hit The Fan

A snippet:

In times like these, I take a few steps back and try to look at the whole picture. The details are numerous; they are often contradictory and confusing. For clarity’s sake, it can be helpful to keep the macro view in focus, instead of the details. Here are the big-picture items that I keep firmly in mind each day:

  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis. Clues for directionality are best found by viewing the entire world situation. That data still points downwards.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better, due to a lack of critical and focused investment and the passage of wasted time.
  • It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.

 

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57 Comments

  • Thu, Jan 01, 1970 - 12:00am

    #1

    idoctor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 05 2008

    Posts: 33

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    hpernar hope you are doing well in the market I know I am happy I am in with 1/2 of my $$$. I feel this market should be 4000 on the dow at the moment & have little doubt it will be 4500 in a bad recession & 1000 to 800 in a depression over time. So I feel this rally is a cheep thrill at best.

    Wish I would have found the CM site sooner before I gave up so much earlier. This site has made me much more aware of the value of capital preservation. Depressions are for zeroing us all out which is what I feel Chris is trying to help us all see & trying to prevent. Now I have the other half of my $$$ in cash & PM. I always have a quick finger on my mouse with day trading & hope I can get lucky & not lose too much more.

    I am betting we have been through 2/3rd of this rally & have 1/3rd left with all the money they have thrown at the mess. WHO REALLY KNOWS?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1128641812&play=1

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30838252

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  • Sun, May 17, 2009 - 8:36pm

    #2
    Davos

    Davos

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 17 2008

    Posts: 811

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     Great read Chris, thanks!

    I agree, we are in a depression already.

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  • Sun, May 17, 2009 - 8:39pm

    #3

    Lemonyellowschwin

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 22 2008

    Posts: 212

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Thank you Chris.  Enjoyed the report as usual.

    Is it still your sense that price inflation will start to rear its ugly head by the end of the year?

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  • Sun, May 17, 2009 - 10:07pm

    #4

    Peter Bartels

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 27 2008

    Posts: 194

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Wow

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 2:15am

    #5
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 110

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Chris

    Thank you as always, extremely well researched and timely (scary too but better to know).  With appreciation for your efforts and Rebecca’s and the rest of the Brigade’s-

    Denise

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 6:17am

    #6

    Stephen Lark

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 27 2008

    Posts: 13

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    <sarcasm>

    Don’t worry everyone, an Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over

    </sarcasm>

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 1:03pm

    #7

    Tom Page

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 26 2008

    Posts: 266

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    One of CM’s main points is this a global crisis.  Does this mean most worldwide economies will decline with the US and there is no safe haven?  Does this differ from folks like Peter Schiff whom I hear talk about the decline of the US dollar and economy but that economies in foreign countries like China will hold stronger – as the US moves toward more socialistic, managed economics and China moves toward freer capitalism?  Or do you have to figure in a global wide impact with peak oil? 

    Tom

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 3:10pm

    #8
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

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    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Why was my comment and question (posted last night on this thread) taken off?  Whats going on?  A simple comment "I finally subscribed, glad I did" and asking why CM rents instead of owning?  Wow, was that to personal?  Why would a post like that be taken off?  Lost.

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 3:18pm

    #9
    strabes

    strabes

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2009

    Posts: 58

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     rocket, see this post…it’s still there…  

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreport/it-has-hit-the-fan

     

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 3:30pm

    Reply to #8

    admin-2

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 05 2007

    Posts: 150

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=rocketgirl1]

    Why was my comment and question (posted last night on this thread) taken off?  Whats going on?

    [/quote]

    rocketgirl1,

    To add to strabes’ comment, Chris often makes three new posts when creating a Martenson Report.  There is an announcement post which is on his blog, the newsletter sent to enrolled members, and then the actual report itself.  The value of the announcements is there are many people who subscribe to Chris’ RSS blog feed or check their email regularly, so these are quick and easy ways to let many people know the report is ready.

    Blog posts are here… https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog
    Newsletters are here… https://www.peakprosperity.com/newsletters
    And Martenson Reports are here… https://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreports

    Hope this helps!

    Ron

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 3:36pm

    #10
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Thanks Strabes, I still don’t know how to work this site.  The answer to the rent vs own question was good but my thought is at what point is it worth it to own once you’ve built your self sustaining infrastructure (garden, root cellar, etc.) and then have to do it all over again when you have to move out of your rental?  I know the answer centers around your personal circumstances, I get that but what is helpful is the thinking around the timing of the rent vs own scenario.  With all thats going on in the sustaining home and community ideas the question of when to finally own is ( in response to out national state of affairs not personal affairs) a good one.  Anyone?

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 3:46pm

    #11
    strabes

    strabes

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2009

    Posts: 58

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    owning is fine as long as you comfortably maintain a 1) balance sheet cushion and 2) a cashflow cushion and aren’t at risk of getting underwater. for example, signing up for a mortgage that simply fits your current income isn’t a sufficient cushion since people will be losing jobs or getting pay cuts as this depression picks up steam. basically you just need to do a "stress test" on your own balance sheet and cashflow to determine if the overhead of owning (which is really just renting from a bank until you payoff the mortgage) is better than the flexibility/liquidity of renting from a landlord.  

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 4:07pm

    #12
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

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    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Our situation is a bit unique and the future will dictate if we are in a good position or not.  We bought several homes during the heydays but instead of renting them full time we bought prime real estate next to a major national park and we rent them to vacationers (a banner year now but a very slow start and everyone asking for discounts) with a formula of one week rental equals monthly expenses.  Now that we know about the crash course, peak everything, it looks like one of the properties will be perfect for self sustaining life style.  We are not even close to owning outright and we’re not rich by any means so the point in mentioning this is that not every rental is full time rental and the vacation rental can also be a good sell even in a bad economy.  Our international travel has tanked but next state and local is booming.  There are still Americans with money and they will visit the national parks even in bad economic times, it’s a scale down vacation for them.  These are interesting times.

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 4:30pm

    #13
    strabes

    strabes

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2009

    Posts: 58

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     yes that’s entirely different.  rather than stress testing your personal balance sheet / cashflow statement as you would for a live-in primary home, you just need to stress test your business plan given you’re running profitable rentals…that is an asset, not a liability, so the decision completely changes. just make sure you stress test your business plan for near-zero revenue…that’s the possibility in the next phase of the collapse, or TSHTF.  🙂

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 4:31pm

    #14

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4706

    Rent Vs. Buy?

    Rocketgirl1,

    Why do I rent?  I began renting because I could not find any houses or land that I considered even remotely within a reasonable price (at the time) and I judged that my holdings in gold would outpace local real estate by a wide margin.

    So far so good.

    However, I have been actively seeking the right piece of land – house is optional – for quite some time and would have bought if the right piece had opened up as far back as a year and a half.

    We are actively seeking right now and more and more is opening up all the time as sellers s.l.o.w.l.y. come to grips with reality.  It’s still frustrating for me to see overpriced houses pop up on the market every week, but for the local realtors it’s been deadly and they are beyond frustrated at this point.

    To me, the math is simple.  Either people can afford to buy a house or they cannot.  Now that lenders have been demanding 20% down plus a 30% cap on the mortgage:income ratio, this has put a severe cap on house prices locally.  At least, a severe cap on the ones that are selling I should say.  Things are moving quite nicely in the $150k – $180k range (which aligns with local incomes), but nothing has sold in my area over $400k in over a year.  Yet people still slap their silly ranches on the market for prices well over that mark, let them languish, pull them off and relist them in hopes that nobody notices that its the same house for some insane "drop" of perhaps $5k, try different brokers, and generally do everything they can to avoid noticing that the problem is that their listing price is out of alignment with current market realities.

    So we are "in the market" but not at fantasy or delusion levels. I am pathologically averse to losing money in markets or overpaying for assets and I am quite tuned into the local market so I’ll know a good deal when I see one and we will move rapidly when the situation warrants.

    Best,
    Chris

    PS – We very, very rarely delete posts around here and always notify the poster when we do.

     

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 4:58pm

    #15
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Thanks for your time and insights Chris, Strabes, Ron (hope I didn’t miss anyone) especially the detailed thinking behind your decision Chris.  This is such an important question for everyone.  Another thought I have about our properties is in the SHTF sooner rather then later scenario and how a cozy cabin in the mountains will be a great temporary get away for a family so we may be prepping one of them with food, etc. just in case.  It’s good to wait when you know values will continue to fall but what makes me nervous is waiting too long and then there’s a scramble for the, get out of the city , properties and a landlord who can get twice what their getting now and suddenly renters are part of the panic herd they were trying to avoid to begin with.  I’ve learned that any decision I’ve made out of fear came back to bite me in the end (pun intended) and level headed non emotional decisions have worked for the better but now it’s so tempting to act on fear or maybe it’s just fear of being with the madding crowd and how I don’t want to be in any line (gov. etc.) What is rationally going to happen, answer your fears with rational action and a little planning can go a long way.

    In our business I can see that there are people with money and in a collapsed economy there will still be people with money who want and need to feel safe.(just to avoid possible criticism, we do a great deal of charitable giving and will continue to even in the toughest of times)  I hope we can help with that.  Good luck to all of you and may timing be on your side. As a Christian I’d also like to say God luck to you as well (smile).

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 5:14pm

    #16
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Chris, I reread your post and I my thoughts are from my own vantage point and I’m think you might be interested in this current situation here in upscale, second home market.  We did consider putting one of our vacation homes on the market (increase cash reserves) and the agent/ broker was willing to list at our desired price (positive cash flow business, turn key) but with 80-90% foreclosures and short sales currently listed the chances of selling at profitable level are about the same as a banana flavored Popsicle on the asphalt in Vegas in July lasting more then a nano second. Why put us all through that and besides the agent let us know that people of means are smart enough not to buy at yesterdays (two years ago) prices even if it is a good business.  Soooo, as a business it’s a who moved my cheese scenario.  I understand where the "silly ranches" on the market are coming from and I believe it’s a matter of survival not just of the fittest but the timeliest as well.  If people of "means" stop visiting the national parks then we too will be in trouble.

    Thanks again for your time.

    Rocketgirl

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 5:16pm

    #17
    mcafeejs

    mcafeejs

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 22 2008

    Posts: 3

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/moodys-lowers-japan-aaa-foreign.html

    Moody’s lowered Japan’s sovereign debt rating

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 5:44pm

    #18
    rocketgirl1

    rocketgirl1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 23

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    One more thing, we advertise on a international website and last week they asked if we would give an interview with CNBC.  Apparently they are interested in us as an example of our type of business and market conditions.  I don’t know if they will think this will apply but CM and The Crash Course has changed us as a business and on a personal level as well and I will try my best to get a plug in there for you.  It’s the least I can do.  Thanks CM and all the behind the scenes warriors!

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 6:38pm

    #19

    DrKrbyLuv

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 10 2008

    Posts: 354

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Time to buckle-up; the road ahead is going to get very bumpy.

    I came upon this today:

    Chart of the Day

    While the stock market is up sharply since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. Today’s chart helps provide some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline. Today’s chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.

    Larry

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 7:12pm

    #20

    idoctor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 05 2008

    Posts: 33

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Peter Schiff today….WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3pB2nl-BRI

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 11:13pm

    #21

    John David Cammish

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 29 2008

    Posts: 18

    Chris, anyone? Help, please Re idoctor - :It's Hit the Fan

    idoctor,

    Thanks for your post "Peter Schiff today….WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT" – I like him, he talks a lot of sense.

    HOWEVER, I am now confused.

    Chris or whoever,

    We have a situation in the UK/USA/(other developed nations?) where we can see potential deflation followed by inflation (?) and further (dramatic?) stock market falls predicated on the housing market (or lack thereof) and unemployment etc. HOWEVER, given Peter S’s video blog today we could see a situation where, because of the shift in political stance as a result of its election, India could open up a market and develops its export/import potential, thus changing the horizon.

    Are we going to see decoupling, in which case BRIC could succeed and the ‘Old World Order’ (US/UK/Europe) falls by the wayside, or does coupling still hold, in which case the scenario for ‘The West’ does not appear so bad?

    Any thoughts or input will be welcomed by a confused old fart (please see the section "Vulgarity and Offensiveness" in http://www.answers.com/topic/fart – hope it doesn’t offend anyone, it’s meant humorously, the question however is serious!)

    David

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 11:41pm

    #22
    strabes

    strabes

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2009

    Posts: 58

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     Schiff talks about decoupling as if it’s a simple business decision that can be made tomorrow in a boardroom. but much of BRIC growth was caused by the global dollar system, the US’ global banks (JPM Chase, Citi, BoA, the i-banks), the US’ global consumption demand, etc.  those things took generations to create and what looks like efficient BRIC economies today likewise took generations to become coupled to the US.  it seems Schiff thinks this was just a quick hooking up process…it was decades of hard work by milllions of people creating an infinite number of mini-couplings. likewise it isn’t just about unhooking a coupler.  BRIC is in serious trouble in the short/med term.  in the long run Schiff is right, though it’s less about BRIC as a whole and more about china.  

     

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  • Mon, May 18, 2009 - 11:52pm

    #23

    John David Cammish

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 29 2008

    Posts: 18

    Thanks Strabes Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Hi Strabes,

    Thanks for your input, gratefully received and noted.

    Despite its size I see Brazil as less of a player of the four, China has the population numbers but still had its political encumberances, Russia is, well, Russia(!), India has the population numbers and potential open market in the next year or three. My feeling is that India has the intelligensia and capabilites of being able to devlop internally (hmm, although China could be argued thus), therefore avoiding some of the requirement to have to export to USA.

    I’m (still) so confused!

    David

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 1:21am

    #24

    idoctor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 05 2008

    Posts: 33

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    I’m (still) so confused!

    Dave that makes two of us

    Maybe Jim Rogers can clear some of this up?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyIbwc4Pbn0&annotation_id=annotation_594527&feature=iv

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twpgRKEhn-M

    Looks like the sun is setting in the west but the sky isn’t falling at the moment. I would guess all these realist are going to be right over time but timing is so difficult with so many global complexities & BS all playing out together. I guess I need to invest in a good wedgie board. 

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 1:43am

    Reply to #14

    Montana Native

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 51

    Re: Rent Vs. Buy?

    Thanks for addressing this point Dr. Martenson. I am similarly dealing with a unrealistic market that nobody wants to give up on. Found a great place last week and put in a reasonable offer of 15% below asking……lets just say I’m still in the market. The choice whether to rent or buy seems to be a particular thorn in my side. I appreciate you taking the time to analyze the rent vs buy situation and would be particularly interested in any follow ups by your self or others.

     

    Cheers, TJ

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 2:38am

    Reply to #20

    Damnthematrix

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 09 2008

    Posts: 1132

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=idoctor]

    Peter Schiff today….WE CAN HAVE WHAT EVER WE WANT

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3pB2nl-BRI

    [/quote]

    EXCEPT OIL!

    http://omrpublic.iea.org/
    IEA’s Oil Market Report shows world oil supply fell 3.4%
    from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q1 to 84.1 Mb/d
     
    http://www.peakoil.org.au/charts/iea.world.oil-prod.2006-2009q1.gif
     
    and the monthly data for April shows a further fall of 0.5 Mb/d .

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 12:21pm

    #25

    Mike Pilat

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 09 2008

    Posts: 155

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    That oil chart is very important, but in the interest of promoting better understanding, I’d just like to point out a few additional facts. The terminology used for "oil" is often corrupted, even by the "experts" so I’d like to point out that numbers in the 84-87 Mbpd range indicate "total liquids." This includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels. Crude oil production is roughly 10 Mbpd less than this (currently around ~71 Mbpd). When you look at the "liquids" picture, things don’t look so dire, but you must consider that we’re burning food (corn) just to keep the liquids number up while at the same time using natural gas that could be used for heating or electricity. As we move forward, I think we’re going to find that there is some small level of substitution that can be done in refineries, which will tend to boost prices for other forms of energy just to keep our liquids situation "under control." Any substitution miracles, however, are generally not increasing efficiency or decreasing production overall, so in that sense, they do nothing to increase the net energy available to society.

    A quick look at the ASPO April 2009 newsletter (http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/2009_april_oilwatch_monthly.pdf) makes it very clear that crude oil essentially hit a plateau in 2005, even though total liquids production increased in that time. Increasing the liquids, though, and calling it "oil" is something like robbing from Peter to pay Paul. The energy had to come from somewhere, and essentially it came from corn or from natural gas liquids that could have been used in other areas of the economy.

    I’ve often though that a better overall measure of economic growth and output should be total energy consumed (this is a simpler proxy for the more accurate "surplus energy available"). I think this has never been truer than it is now. If energy consumption continues to fall, peaking aside, there is no question about it: An economy based on energy consumption will feel a lot of pain.

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 1:48pm

    #26
    eb_riesling

    eb_riesling

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 28 2008

    Posts: 20

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Mike,

    I completely agree with your view on energy.  I also believe that we can take that metric one step further and convert everything to a carbon or kj or kw equivalent.  This would help consumers know the real cost their purchasing decisions in terms of sustainability and the damage from externalized accounting methodology.  Furthermore if we ever get out of this economic mess we could use it to equalize the playing field with China by introducing a carbon tax on all products foreign and domestic.  People would soon see that the bargains are not so large after all.  We all seem willing to purchase cheap disposable products with massive carbon footprints to save a few bucks at the expense of our future living standard.

     

    E

     

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  • Tue, May 19, 2009 - 2:11pm

    #27

    Mike Pilat

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 09 2008

    Posts: 155

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    E – Call me the cynic for this post, but I tried being an unrealistic optimist for a while and couldn’t find a foundation.

    I think there is a general consensus even in America that alternative energy is "good" even though only some of the people might be willing to say that fossil fuels are "bad." At times like this, it is difficult to look at everything from the perspective of what "makes sense" and what is prudent and practical. The actions taken by our government and leaders create such a great deal of dissonance in my mind that I personally need a different way to look at it. I don’t think that our government is too dumb to understand the need for American infrastructure, nor do I think they are too dumb to understand that these issues could be politically beneficial (since I believe the public is generally views alternatives positively).

    Instead, I think it’s plain to see for those willing to look, that the banks and corporate interests have a stranglehold on our government. The amount of secrecy and complexity in the web of interests that is running the show is truly too complicated for me to fully grasp. All I can say is that a lot of things aren’t passing the smell test lately. So beyond simply calling our leaders "dumb," I’d say "corrupted" is more likely. Unfortunately, the corruption will never end until the majority of Americans take a stand against this. I’m not sure that that the movement can succeed even in political terms, because the way our system is dysfunctioning right now seems to limit the power of moral politicians. Instead, coming to grips with our nation’s own corruption, our own terrible decisions, and our shortcomings as a society and a culture, to the point where Joe Taxpayer/Sixpack actually cares and discusses more about these issues than Britney’s latest scandal, will be a signal to me that things are turning around.

    Mike

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 12:03am

    Reply to #14

    dmasker

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 20 2009

    Posts: 0

    Re: Rent Vs. Buy?

    I just recently bought a house. Like many of you, I believe there is a good chance that the dollar will continue to devalue. My fear was that I would wake up one day and the dollar would be worthless. Even though homes have been in a deflationary mode, at least it is a hard asset that will have some value.I got a 5% 30 year fixed rate with no points, so that influenced my decision.

    Regards, David

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 1:28am

    #28
    ejanea

    ejanea

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    Joined: Oct 03 2008

    Posts: 2

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     I have been reading this rent/buy discussion with great interest.  I think that one needs to remember one other statement made by Chris Martenson.  He has constantly stated that it is necessary to work out your own strategy and trust your own judgement.  I would add that the "gut feeling" is useful too.

    I have bought my house.  In 1999, I found myself on my own with very ittle money, unemployable, despite my degree in science (over 50 and I’d been at home raising six children) and I was sure that the stuff was going to hit the fan then.  (I had been nervous around 1990 too, but that turned out to be temporary.)   I had just half of the equity from the previous family home, and that was not enough to do much at all.  I have no superannuation or investments.  

    My decision was to find somewhere that I could afford to live on a very minimal income…  and here I am.  I bought an old house in a small town with an acre of land. It took all of my money, but I have no debt. The house is old enough that it had been functional in the past (without electricity or hot and cold running water) and it still had the original wood stove in the kitchen (which I have been using for the past 9 years.)  I grow most of my food, though grains and carbohydrate are the biggest challenge.  I have chickens…  currently about 17, though that includes 4 roosters from the last "batch"  that hatched at Christmas time… they’ll make soup. I have quite a lot of firewood on parts of my block.  I live in the driest state in the driest continent in the world.  Consequently I catch the water that falls on every roof here (house and sheds.)  I have 3 x 9000 litre tanks so far, with two more to go.  It would be cheaper to buy a single large one, but it takes me more than a year to save for each one.  An added advantage is that should any one ever leak or water be lost,   I wouldn’t lose it all.  There are some other projects that are underway, but it all takes time.

    The unexpected "bonus" of moving to a small (inexpensive, unfashionable) town is that I am able to ride my bicyle to the grocery shop, and anywhere else in the town. My bicycle was a birthday gift from one of my children.  I have an old but reliable car, but the $20 in fuel I save weekly by bicycling to the shop daily is significant, and I don’t need to pay to go to the gym either!  I know most of the people here and the community has all of the attributes that people ascribe to "resilience."   This has led to me being elected to local government and a (very) small income, the local barter economy and considerable security. I am fit and healthy and I plan to live here indefinitely.

    Whether or not one should buy a house depends upon the resources available,  both financial and physical.  I have expected the fan to be hit for some years, and I don’t think that we will be going "back to normal" ever again.   I don’t think that new technology can fix this problem.  For example,  http://climateandcapitalism.com/?p=684    I will be growing vegetables, raising chickens and living well, with or without the "200 slaves" that oil input has given me in the past.  From my own point of view,  I even find great satisfaction in being at least partially self sufficient and self reliant and part of an ordinary community.

    For those people who are wrestling with the question of whether or not to buy a house,  I can only add that the "gut feeling" needs to be considered also.  I am also grateful for the news, views and information here.

     

     

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 2:05am

    #29
    Balian

    Balian

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    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    All I can find is the summery or the report.  I’m loged in, but can not find full article.

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 3:04am

    Reply to #29

    admin-2

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 05 2007

    Posts: 150

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=Balian]

    All I can find is the summery or the report.  I’m loged in, but can not find full article.

    [/quote]

    Balian,

    New Martenson Reports are only available to enrolled members, which pay a fee to gain access to Chris’ reports, podcasts, In Session forum threads, newsletters, etc.  See the report here, and click here to become an enrolled member.

    Ron

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 3:05am

    Reply to #29

    Dogs_In_A_Pile

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 04 2009

    Posts: 811

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=Balian]

    All I can find is the summery or the report.  I’m loged in, but can not find full article.

    [/quote]

    Balian – 

    Welcome.  Lots of great info here.  If you haven’t watched Crash Course you need to – it’s the heart and soul of the site.

    Also, you need to be a paying subscriber to be able to access the full Martenson Report.  Otherwise, all you’ll be able to get to is the summary.

     

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 4:22am

    #30
    strabes

    strabes

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 58

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     ejanea – great to hear your story.  agreed that trusting the gut is most important.

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 4:53am

    Reply to #28

    Damnthematrix

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 09 2008

    Posts: 1132

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    So ejanea, which part of Australia do you live in?

    Mike

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 5:36am

    Reply to #28
    ejanea

    ejanea

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    Posts: 2

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     South Australia… about 100km north of Adelaide.

     

     

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 10:21am

    #31
    wibble666

    wibble666

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    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    How lucky are we in Britain?

    ‘The recession will be over by Christmas,’ claims Darling

    "Chancellor Alistair Darling predicted the recession will be over by the end of the year, despite more grim economic figures expected today. Mr Darling dismissed criticism that his Budget forecasts were too optimistic and insisted the economy will return to growth by the end of 2009."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184688/The-recession-Christmas-claims-Darling-IMF-set-unveil-grim-economic-forecast.html

     

     

     

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 3:21pm

    #32

    idoctor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 05 2008

    Posts: 33

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbRInApBzUA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nH67hW8_Ug

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mDUvyYWyfs

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 4:35pm

    #33
    hpernar

    hpernar

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    Posts: 3

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    But still, although I believe in everything you’ve said Chris, people had lost the opportunity to gain as much as 300% in recent stock market events (let’s suppose that they read your posts and they base their decisions on it – and they did not enter the stock market for that reason). Something is wrong.

     

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 5:13pm

    #34

    EndGamePlayer

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 02 2008

    Posts: 103

    GM bankruptcy plan eyes quick sale to gov't

    Like this is how to run a government? . . or a company . .

    GM bankruptcy plan eyes quick sale to gov’t: http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN1943363120090519

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 5:18pm

    Reply to #33

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4706

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    I want to be absolutely clear that this site does not offer short-term trading advice.

    What we do here is peer into the future and make long-range assessments of where we are headed and why.  Our goal is to illuminate the future, and we do this by using the best data we can find and by spotting the larger trends.

    Claiming the precise ability to pick bottoms is something that I will gladly leave to the salesmen and financial hustlers.  But 300% gains?  I’m trying to find the right words here…but the ones coming  to mind are not especially favorable.

    I am quite proud of my long range predictions and trends-spotting, which include:

    • Calling the housing market as a bubble back in 2005 (and 2006 and 2007….)
    • Being bearish on the dollar since 2003
    • Being bullish on gold since 2002

    And on May 27th last year, I wrote this:

    My assessment is that the economic and financial risks are exceptionally high and possibly historically unique. This is no time for complacency. A defensive stance is both warranted and prudent. A 50% – 70% (real) decline in the main stock market indexes is a distinct possibility, and portfolios should be ‘crash-proofed.’

    For the record, when that call was made, the Dow was sitting roughly 4,000 points higher than it is right now, and lost almost exactly 50% by low of March of 2009, a year later.  Very few insitutions or analysts made that call at that time.

    Since the base data that I trust the most (import/export activity, sales tax, and income tax receipts, and insider selling) are still firmly pointing "down," I have yet to switch over to becoming a believer that the tide has turned.  It will someday, and I will certainly be "late," because I am not at all interested in trying to pick exact tops and exact bottoms – the risk is too great.

    In major bear markets, the goal is to not lose all your money.  We are in a major, whopper of a bear market.  One for the books.

    Remember, people lost their money in 1929, smart people lost their money in 1930, and the really, really smart people lost their money in 1931.

    Feel free to try and outsmart the market squiggles if you must, but be aware that this is not the purpose of this site.  

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 5:19pm

    Reply to #33

    Dogs_In_A_Pile

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 04 2009

    Posts: 811

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=hpernar]

    But still, although I believe in everything you’ve said Chris, people had lost the opportunity to gain as much as 300% in recent stock market events (let’s suppose that they read your posts and they base their decisions on it – and they did not enter the stock market for that reason). Something is wrong.

    [/quote]

    There certainly is something wrong.  They didn’t trust themselves to determine the correct course of action to take with their money.

    The actual gains were closer to 700%, because for nearly every upward run the market made, there was a large pullback and digestion period and it was so incredibly easy to make money trading to the downside.

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 6:03pm

    #35

    Mike Pilat

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 09 2008

    Posts: 155

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Chris: I must say your May 27th piece is a true gem. I hadn’t read it before, but it’s the sort of foundational outlook that I think would be worth revisiting periodically. Thank you for linking that!

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 6:28pm

    Reply to #35

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4706

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=Mike Pilat]

    Chris: I must say your May 27th piece is a true gem. I hadn’t read it before, but it’s the sort of foundational outlook that I think would be worth revisiting periodically. Thank you for linking that!

    [/quote]

    Thanks Mike.  You know what?  I just re-read it and it turns out that was a pretty good string of predictions.  I can’t imagine doing much better than that. 

    But I agree that the format was pretty good and is worth revisiting.

    Best,
    Chris

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 6:53pm

    #36
    hpernar

    hpernar

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    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Maybe my post has been misunderstood. What I meant was – if stock markets are always ahead of the real (?) economy, what is this bullish rally telling us? And I know about insider sell-off on a massive scale, expected – delayed impact of x0000000000000000000000000 dollars pumped into the system etc. But what is happening right now? The stock markets around the world are brutally bullish. Look at the Baltic Dry Index as well…

    Dont get me wrong, I am pesimistic as hell, but armageddon hasn’t happened yet… Are all those investors just plain silly / don’t get simple math / blind? Or do the shadowpeople (and I do not mean David Icke) plan for something else?

    Every day I expect things to start happening, but somehow (miracle?:)) people have again been fooled that everything is OK now (hey, what happened to crisis?). So they react. And this is what we see now in stock markets. It’s like they have a special button – "Crisis" and next to it another one named "Recovery" (speaking of media). Oh what a lovely orchestra this is…

    So I assume that this bullish trend will soon reverse because it is planned that way. If not, then what? Miraculous invention waiting to happen? New Tesla on the way?

    Virtual dollars, virtual crisis? What is real in this strange setting?

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  • Wed, May 20, 2009 - 8:38pm

    Reply to #36

    Dogs_In_A_Pile

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 04 2009

    Posts: 811

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=hpernar]

    Maybe my post has been misunderstood. What I meant was – if stock markets are always ahead of the real (?) economy, what is this bullish rally telling us? ….. But what is happening right now? The stock markets around the world are brutally bullish. Look at the Baltic Dry Index as well……

    Virtual dollars, virtual crisis? What is real in this strange setting?

    [/quote]

    hpernar –

    I am posting addressing the context of determining trading opportunities in the market only – not from having a sense of what is going on in the world.

    What is happening in the market right now (or any other time) DOES NOT MATTER!!!!  The market is going to go up, down or sideways.  Trade the market in the direction the market is moving.  Take advantage of the volatility and the movement and don’t concern yourself with the "why", because the "why" just doesn’t matter.  The market is moving up – I don’t care what is driving it up, whether the reason is legitimate or not, whether the underlying fundamentals are sound or not – I just trade the market in the direction that it is moving.

    You should be aware of what is going on to gauge volatility, and get a sense of how long a move in a particular direction is going to last, but in the end, you just don’t care what is moving the market, you only care that the market moves.

    Money made in a trade in a market that is moving up on false confidence (the current sucker’s rally is a great example) is still spendable.

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  • Thu, May 21, 2009 - 12:00am

    #37
    leo0648

    leo0648

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    Posts: 5

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Chris, thank you for giving us the long term view.  This site was never intended to be a place for short term investing strategies.  Even with the dollar falling, I still think the market could correct.  Anyone here who had the guts to buy Citigroup at $1, congrats.  I hope you sold.

     

    I do have one question for Chris and anyone else who may have an answer to this.  How do you feel with Peter Schiff’s strategy on China.  Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are also bullish on China.  Do you think that China will still suffer and fail to decouple?  My biggest fear with investing in China is that another oil spike would destroy their economy, although they aren’t as dependent as we are per capita.

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  • Thu, May 21, 2009 - 12:09am

    #38

    DrKrbyLuv

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 10 2008

    Posts: 354

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    Mike Pilat said:

    E – Call me the cynic for this post, but I tried being an unrealistic optimist for a while and couldn’t find a foundation.

    I think there is a general consensus even in America that alternative energy is "good" even though only some of the people might be willing to say that fossil fuels are "bad." At times like this, it is difficult to look at everything from the perspective of what "makes sense" and what is prudent and practical. The actions taken by our government and leaders create such a great deal of dissonance in my mind that I personally need a different way to look at it. I don’t think that our government is too dumb to understand the need for American infrastructure, nor do I think they are too dumb to understand that these issues could be politically beneficial (since I believe the public is generally views alternatives positively).

    Instead, I think it’s plain to see for those willing to look, that the banks and corporate interests have a stranglehold on our government. The amount of secrecy and complexity in the web of interests that is running the show is truly too complicated for me to fully grasp. All I can say is that a lot of things aren’t passing the smell test lately. So beyond simply calling our leaders "dumb," I’d say "corrupted" is more likely. Unfortunately, the corruption will never end until the majority of Americans take a stand against this. I’m not sure that that the movement can succeed even in political terms, because the way our system is dysfunctioning right now seems to limit the power of moral politicians. Instead, coming to grips with our nation’s own corruption, our own terrible decisions, and our shortcomings as a society and a culture, to the point where Joe Taxpayer/Sixpack actually cares and discusses more about these issues than Britney’s latest scandal, will be a signal to me that things are turning around.

    Mike – I usually learn something from your posts and this was no exception.  You’re able to say things in a couple paragraphs that would take me a full page.  Thanks!

    Larry

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  • Fri, May 22, 2009 - 7:02am

    #39

    noodlydoo

    Status Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 2

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    How come everyone is congratulating Chris M. and not me?  I sold my house in 2005, moved across the country and put my kids into a Mandarin immersion program.  Maybe I should start my own blog??

     

    In regards to owning a house….Today, Thursday March 21st 2009, I’m making the call that it is now time to buy. There are huge advantages to being in debt if inflation rears its ugly head…especially with the tax advantages of interest expenses, and rates at historic lows.  I wonder if people will give me credit for this call two years from now…but I’m posting it as proof 🙂

     

    (This is just an opinion and in no way should be taken as financial advise…please seek a professional advisor, as I am not one).

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  • Fri, May 22, 2009 - 11:27pm

    Reply to #39

    dmasker

    Status Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 0

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    You are exactly right my friend. I closed on a house on 5/8/09. Per my earlier post, inflation is the enemy and unfortunately the tool the government will use to keep the status quo going as long as they can.Our government is the enemy now. Sorry, but that is how I feel. Think about it. What do you worry about more, a terrorist attack or what our government has done/will do.Sad that people don’t see what is happening and do something about it.

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  • Sat, May 23, 2009 - 12:05am

    Reply to #35

    JAG

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 240

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=cmartenson]

    [quote=Mike Pilat]

    Chris: I must say your May 27th piece is a true gem. I hadn’t read it before, but it’s the sort of foundational outlook that I think would be worth revisiting periodically. Thank you for linking that!

    [/quote]

    Thanks Mike.  You know what?  I just re-read it and it turns out that was a pretty good string of predictions.  I can’t imagine doing much better than that. 

    But I agree that the format was pretty good and is worth revisiting.

    Best,
    Chris

    [/quote]

    I would have to whole heartedly agree with Mike that the May 27th Martenson Report was fantastic. It is exactly what I have been looking for. I’m going to have to make some time and read the Martenson report archives and see what else I missed.

    Thanks Dr.M and Mike.

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  • Mon, May 25, 2009 - 9:39pm

    Reply to #39

    jerrydon10

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 02 2009

    Posts: 5

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=noodlydoo]

     

    In regards to owning a house….Today, Thursday March 21st 2009, I’m making the call that it is now time to buy. There are huge advantages to being in debt if inflation rears its ugly head…especially with the tax advantages of interest expenses, and rates at historic lows.  I wonder if people will give me credit for this call two years from now…but I’m posting it as proof 🙂

    [/quote]

    Well, good luck to all of you who are about to buy. I for one will continue to lease my little town house for awhile and I’ll tell you why.

    The crash course. Is it chapter 15 where Chris graphs the credit bubble? That graph shows me that the credit bubble will not level out (if it ever levels out) until about 2015 if I am reading it right.

    Almost no one statistically can pay cash for a home. They need credit for that purchase and where there is little credit there can be few homes selling.

    I don’t think home prices will bottom out for at least another 6 years.

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  • Mon, May 25, 2009 - 11:34pm

    Reply to #36

    jerrydon10

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 02 2009

    Posts: 5

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=hpernar]

    Maybe my post has been misunderstood. What I meant was – if stock markets are always ahead of the real (?) economy, what is this bullish rally telling us? And I know about insider sell-off on a massive scale, expected – delayed impact of x0000000000000000000000000 dollars pumped into the system etc. But what is happening right now? The stock markets around the world are brutally bullish. Look at the Baltic Dry Index as well…

    Dont get me wrong, I am pesimistic as hell, but armageddon hasn’t happened yet… Are all those investors just plain silly / don’t get simple math / blind? Or do the shadowpeople (and I do not mean David Icke) plan for something else?

    Every day I expect things to start happening, but somehow (miracle?:)) people have again been fooled that everything is OK now (hey, what happened to crisis?). So they react. And this is what we see now in stock markets. It’s like they have a special button – "Crisis" and next to it another one named "Recovery" (speaking of media). Oh what a lovely orchestra this is…

    So I assume that this bullish trend will soon reverse because it is planned that way. If not, then what? Miraculous invention waiting to happen? New Tesla on the way?

    Virtual dollars, virtual crisis? What is real in this strange setting?

    [/quote]

    I’m not firing this trite truism at you, hpernar, just at traders as a whole: those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it.

    Yes, all those investors are just plain silly. Note that someone posted an article on the forums (danged if I remember exactly where) stating that the market insiders (the big boys) are not the ones investing to drive it up, it’s the little guys who have lost a bulk of their retirement accounts hoping to make up the losses.

    This bull rally is called a sucker’s rally.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124208415028908497.html

    How history comes into play is that there were several sucker rallies during the great depression. The market crashed in 1929 but did not bottom out until 1932. There were several sucker’s rallies that occurred on the way to the bottom.

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  • Tue, May 26, 2009 - 12:13am

    #40
    Farmer Brown

    Farmer Brown

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 23 2008

    Posts: 158

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

     [quote]. Are all those investors just plain silly / don’t get simple math / blind? [/quote]

    Yes.  Look at the Great Depression.  There were a number of 30-40% rallies throughout the whole thing,  Trade it, profit from it, but don’t go long unless "long" for you is something like 5 minutes.

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  • Tue, May 26, 2009 - 12:19am

    Reply to #40

    Dogs_In_A_Pile

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 04 2009

    Posts: 811

    Re: New Martenson Report Ready - It's Hit the Fan

    [quote=Patrick Brown]

     Trade it, profit from it, but don’t go long unless "long" for you is something like 5 minutes.

    [/quote]

    Or you could really stick your neck out and go as long as 34 minutes – it’s even a fibonacci interval!!

    Seriously, you can make a ton trading volatile movers on the 34 minute chart – but you need ironclad discipline to get out at the first indication of it backing up over you – up or down.  Stones of steel helps, but you MUST know when to call it  not moving your way and bail out.

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