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    New Coronavirus Ro of 4.1 = Massive Contagion Risk

    A new study has us more concerned than ever
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, January 31, 2020, 10:53 AM

As Chris says in the below video, this is an alert we’d hoped not to have to deliver.

A new study coming out of China reports that the Wuhan coronavirus has an Ro of 4.1. That means it’s much more contagious than previously feared:

If indeed the case, an Ro of 4.1 means there is NO way of stopping this virus from becoming a full-blown global pandemic.

This study has not yet had time to be peer-reviewed, so the data may change. But going with the data we have *right now* in this fast-developing situation, it is time to start preparing yourself and your loved ones.

Not time to panic, mind you. But start taking steps to prepare should you need to shelter in place for a period of days/weeks if the virus hits your community.

N95 masks, sanitizers, household cleaners, etc, body protection, food stores, etc.

Hopefully you won’t have to self-isolate. But if you do, be sure you’ve prepared in advance.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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133 Comments

  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:13am

    #1
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    15+

    GREAT BALANCE in THIS VIDEO, CHRIS

    And if those figures are even close to true, this thing is a nightmare. High infection rate and SARS-like fatality rate? Ugghh.

    But the one thing I keep coming back to is that this study uses the OFFICIAL Chinese stats. And I believe they may be underestimating the actual number of infected by a factor of ten or more. If so, the fatality rate is actually much lower. But I can quite believe that the infectiousness (r0) is high.

    Let us hope these guys are overestimating the fatality rate. If not - this thing is a horror.

    I loved the way you spoke in such a balanced way. I think many more people will listen because of it. Keep up the great work, my friend.

    -Andy

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:23am

    #2
    CCBW

    CCBW

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    Bad name

    I don't want to make light of this subject. But "2019-nCoV" is a lousy name. This virus doesn't care who you are if your important if your rich or a nice person. So how about the Thanos virus just a thought. Thanos was the bad guy in the Avengers movie who made 50% of the people cease to be thank God this is not that bad. Thank you all. As for what to get Long term meat I know people have a low opinon of but SPAM will last a long time and its easy to find. Peanut butter, rice and dry beans. I grow dry beans always save a few 5gal. pails gust in case.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:34am

    #3
    Tim Soper

    Tim Soper

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    Newbie Asking For A Reality Check

    Newbie here. Thanks for the great info from PP and the commenters as well. So grateful I found this community. I could use a reality check. I’m a 53 year old male, mildly overweight, with a taxed immune system who lives alone in a suburb of Chicago and works in a casino with a large clientele of Chinese & Asian players. A casino is nearly as bad as a daycare for infections, my clientele are expats who travel back and forth to Asia, and I can’t just walk away from my job. So I realize that I’d be likely to be right on the early firing line if and when this pandemic hits the US. I think I’m relatively intelligent, but I admit that pandemic wasn’t high on my list of worries for 2020, and my week to week bankroll isn’t such that I can get 6 months of food or water supply. I’ve got that much of a reality check so far (which is miles ahead of my friends, but thankfully my kids & ex-wife have listened), but I’m asking this community what else I can do this late in the game? I ordered dried elderberries and will be cooking up the syrup tomorrow. I’ll be shopping for groceries on Monday (payday) and will be getting 2 extra weeks of meat & dry goods (most I can afford). I’m thinking of ordering the electrolyte mix so I can combat dehydration. What else would be a MUST HAVE this coming week say on a budget of $100? Also, and this is looking into the future, if I would need to go to a hospital, I’m thinking it would be wise to go away from the city towards the best smaller community hospital I could find. My logic is that the Chicago hospitals would get flooded, but is that trade off of some of the best care in the states for less crowded, but probably less qualified care worth it? I hope this doesn’t sound panicky, because I’m not panicked. I’m just looking to get informed even if I’ve been asleep at the wheel too long. Thanks in advance for any and all comments.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:36am

    #4
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

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    Gratitude to Chris and all the folks at peakprosperity

    Chris and co,

    No matter where this thing ends up going long term, I want to thank you for your reporting. It's not only the best calm, sensible reporting out there.. it's kind of the *only* reporting going on from some perspective.

    I've kept quiet about ncov online so far, knowing full well that I'll be accused of being a panic merchant if I say much. Today, I sent a few PMs to family members with link to today's video from Chris. People have to know.

    I want to add another acronym to the PTB, MSM etc. Mine is TWP, or Television Watching People... I stopped watching commercial TV some 25 years ago. I run on a different narrative than most of my country/community. Sadly, much of the internet is now tuned to TWP psyche.

    Social media is next to useless at a time like this, with a blizzard of opinions blowing stuff up.

    Please keep it up Chris and company. None of us want other life forms, especially humans, to suffer. We need to use our brains to minimise suffering. Let's see how we can help each other.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:42am

    #5
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

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    how can I help peakprosperity?

    Chris,

    I'm a computer guy for nearly 40 years, infrastructure and software development. I've noticed your site grinding a bit, no surprise given what's happening. Get in touch if can help in some way, I'm at your disposal.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:59am

    #6

    Montana Native

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    Mask count

    I really would like to know what members here feel a mask per person count in a household should be. I want to be prepared, while also not being a hoarder.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:00pm

    #7

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    Yeah, they are starting to get it!

    U.S. mandates quarantine for 195 Wuhan evacuees who passed through Anchorage

    Well duh!  The passengers went to our International terminal and were allowed to de-plan on their way to California.  But hey no one had a temperature so all is well and we can whistle a happy tune!  Not really worried it is just sad that those in charge are slow and seem to be so uninformed.  No doubt they are doing the best they can under the circumstances and everyone is on edge. Hope they sanitize our International Terminal!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:05pm

    #8
    climber99

    climber99

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    mortality rate of 2%

    With a mortality rate of 2% this puts the Upper Limit for fatalities at 154 million people worldwide.  The world population is currently growing by 82 million per year.   Hence it is just minor setback in Homo Sapians quest to conquer our universe and beyond.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:20pm

    #9
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    R_0 ~ 4.1

    How do surface contact/droplet (typical for corona viruses) versus airborne (aerosol) transmission R values typically compare?

    Just curious given the high estimates of R_0 coming out of China.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:23pm

    #10
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Two papers this morning, with different conclusions, similar R0

    The other paper is here:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.20018549.full.pdf

    This one is NOT straight out of the China CDC and thus is not beholden to their numbers, estimates that only 5% of cases have been "ascertained," meaning that available testing procedures are missing 95% of cases.

    The consequence would be that the CFR drops precipitously by 95%, because presumably the other people who were not diagnosed as having this virus didn't get as sick and die (but then again if they died, they did not get counted as coronavirus deaths).

    Glimmer of hope.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:38pm

    Adam Taggart

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    Thanks

    Thanks, Ben.

    Yes, with the substantially higher traffic due to our 24/7 coronavirus coverage, the site is struggling at bit to keep up.

    But we've got 2 tech teams working on it now.

    Thanks so much for the offer of help. If we need to, we'll reach out!

    cheers,

    A

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:59pm

    #12
    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

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    Why the quarantine order?

    If there's one thing that I've learned through this site over the years, it's to question when things don't quite make sense. For me, it's the issuance of the federal quarantine order this morning... why was that necessary?

    If the plane was essentially carrying diplomats (and other people who had to pay $1,110 a pop and battle the near impossibility of making their way to the airport in Wuhan), you'd think they would very willingly self-isolate for 14 days once on US soil. They could grant all sorts of interviews and talk about how patriotic they were and were only looking out for health of the public, etc. etc. At the very least, I don't think you could find a group of people who would be more willing to self-isolate than these 200.

    On the one hand, I'm sure part of it was for PR to correct the optics that US folks were isolating for 3 days, while folks in other countries are being isolated for 14. However, wouldn't voluntary isolation work as well. Was this just to "remind" the population that the federal goverment does, indeed, have statutory authority to restrict people's movements? As for effects: how many people will be relieved to see the CDC use this power compared to how many just had an "oh sh!^" moment?

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:04pm

    #13

    Adam Taggart

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    Joined: May 25 2009

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    White House Declares National Health Emergency

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-update-us-warns-against-china-travel-after-who-emergency-declaration-153258056.html

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:18pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    what to do beyond mask/elderberries/stored food

    Tim
    1.  "Sandpuppy" has many postings on this topic and is the best source of such information in my opinion.  Look for his postings along with Chris M videos.
    2. Because so much is known about this virus, I expect to see some serious medicine emerge fairly soon, so the longer we wait the more opportunities for chemical interventions.
    3.  Personally, I would look into buying an oxygen tank and mask, to administer oxygen and stay out of the hospital (but you need to learn how to handle gaseous oxygen: tuberculosis survivors and other lung challenged long term survivors use these).  it seems clear that presently the only cure is our immune system and time.  Hospital ICUs seem to merely provide ways to get oxygen into weaked lungs while waiting for the body to do its thing.  I wonder what the excellent ICU experts on this site have to say.

    best regards from the Japan islands

    Mots

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:24pm

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    People dropping dead

    And strong case it man made.

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1223078977377423361/pu/vid/272x480/5w6BmGkP9ipcoysk.mp4?tag=10

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1223305946723704832?s=19

     

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:31pm

    #16

    Adam Taggart

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    1st US Quarantine Order in 50 Years

    Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency in the U.S. on Friday. The declaration comes after U.S. health officials issued a federal quarantine order for the 195 Americans evacuated from the epicenter of the outbreak in China.

    The group of U.S. government workers and private Americans will remain at a military base in Southern California until mid-February, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday.

    The government hasn't issued such a quarantine order in over 50 years, Messonnier said. She said the order was issued because of the "unprecedented public health threat" of the outbreak; none of the quarantined Americans have tested positive for the virus.

    (Source)

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:35pm

    #17
    Haiku4U

    Haiku4U

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    Common sense and the basics to start with...

    Chris and Adam, and everyone at Peak Prosperity.

    Thanks SO much for everything that you are and have been doing for this community over the past decade. I am a long time lurker, but posting for the 1st time. I have come to depend on PP as my first "go to" website when I want an in depth discussion on so many different topics. You guys are great!

    If you are just starting to prepare for emergency preps the basics are where to start. Start with what you might need for the next week or two. Toilet paper, disinfectants, coffee, food, bread, a few gallons of water, etc., is a great place to start. Batteries, Pedialite, Ibuprofen, food for your pets...whatever you can think of. You don't need to hoard stuff or buy things you don't need. Just stick to the basics.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:46pm

    tourcarve

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    Number of Masks

    I'd like to see opinions on numbers of masks from others, too.

    We live on a homestead and have food stores of 2000 cal/day for three months for twelve family members, as well as a hand pump on our well for water and a year's worth of firewood for heating and cooking. So hopefully we won't need to interact with outsiders frequently.

    I'm assuming that we won't want to reuse N-95 masks, and so will need the number of masks equal to the number times ONE of us will need to interact with outsiders -- for one wave of pandemic? For three waves?

    I have 30 N-95 masks. Doesn't feel like too many, but I don't know.

    I thought that if it did seem like an overabundance, I'd give them to neighbors later on.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 1:51pm

    #19
    pjvdveen

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    Might be also some simple logic in this R0 number

    I am not sure about the actual R0 number, but I see that they are talking about a delay time.

    Logically, if there is an average delay time between being infected and  showing symptoms of 4 to 5 days. Than on average everyone showing symptoms on Jan 29 was infected on Jan 25. So if the percentage of people going to the hospital with symptoms remains the same, you get an R0 of 7678/2000 based on the reported number of cases in China.

    So in my opinion, an analysis like this depends in a large extent on the accuracy of this timing.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:01pm

    Tim Soper

    Tim Soper

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    Much Thanks!

    I’ll search thru the Sandpuppy posts, and watch the vids I haven’t seen yet. The oxygen tank is something I hadn’t considered and would have never thought of, so much thanks.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:07pm

    #21
    Mark Birdsall

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    Gracias

    Chris,

    Thank you, and thank God there are intelligent analysts with a head for data and nothing to sell, like yourself, who are willing to speak truth to power. You will quite possibly save hundreds or thousands of lives if the study you highlight is anywhere near accurate.

     

    Also Mike Shedlock, another blogger and great analyst, has covered a lot of ground on this topic: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/
    Mark B

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:12pm

    #22
    nigel

    nigel

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    curve fitting

    Now you have a longer data set you should try curve fitting based on the rate of change to extrapolate a correct r0. Look at the percentage change each virus cycle based on the official numbers. If we assume the full numbers aren't being reported, you can still base it on severe cases if you add an assumption of say 10 or 20% rate of severe cases, which are the ones being confirmed and reported.

    Just use the confirmed cases as a sample group for total infections, and then look at how much it is going up. There are too many variables to get an accurate number for any analysis, for example time span of virus cycle, initial start date, lack of reporting and so on. I'm just using this as a rough figure to plan my response for infections in country.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:15pm

    #23

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Pandemic naming contest

    I’m going with “Wuhu Flu.”  (Patent pending)

    <You have to laugh to keep from crying>

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:21pm

    #24

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

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    Man made?

    What do you (Especially Dr Martenson) think about this link.

    https://biorxiv-cache.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/2020.01.30.927871.full.pdf

    seems to suggest this is man made to target humans with parts of HIV RNA.  Combine this with the preference for males that Chris describes and its truly chilling.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:32pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    the cause

    This research article is kind of convincing.  The inserted HIV-1 sequences in the new virus did not come from bat soup.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:54pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

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    Whoa...

    ...you know that telephoto camera lens effect they use in film to mess with the perspective in a trippy kind of way when the protagonist has some major revelation That Changes Everything?

    If this story (HIV genetic material in nCoV, engineered bioweapon) is true...  egad, That Changes Everything...

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:04pm

    #27
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Dr. Peng Zhou

    Yes, the man was researching the spike glycoprotein.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12250-010-3096-2

    General info from zerehedge...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:06pm

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Kgluong said:

    It explain a lot of things. Perfect spreading. Death rate between 3% to 10% so it can keep spreading. Asymptomatic. Long incubation, hiv drugs more effective. Etc.

    With that said i don't think it is a bio weapon. If it is than the development was at an early stage when it got out. This is uncontrollable hence not suited for warfare. To me this is more of a research virus for medical studies that got leaked out.

    I talked to my mom about this. She said for the past few weeks,  china social media said it came from Canada. Two researchers stole samples and transported to china Bio lab in Wuhan where it was leaked out. It Chinese social media rumors, tho.

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:07pm

    #29
    kristen braun

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    R/wuhan_flu on reddit quarantined

    I have been checking in at r/wuhan_flu (thanks Chris) and have seen a lot of good discussions.  I went there to check for updates tonight and it has been “quarantined “ for “false information”. Anyone know of another reddit sub that hasn’t been taken over and “cleansed”?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:08pm

    #30
    green_achers

    green_achers

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    Posts: 50

    green_achers said:

    OK, does the progression of this disease have any similarities whatsoever with HIV? That idea just seems preposterous on it's face.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:23pm

    #31
    Matties

    Matties

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    coronavirus may be killed higher body temperature (2003 Hong Kong)

    If correct, let us pray for summer...

    https://www.bmj.com/rapid-response/2011/10/29/coronavirus-may-be-killed-higher-body-temperature

    If the hypothesis is correct, then control is straight forward :
    1. Put on more clothes to make body really warm,
    2. maintain room temperature at least above 23C,
    3. do exercise for 30 minutes daily, make sure you really sweat.

    Let me tell you a legend happened in HK over a hundred years ago.
    HK was infected by an unknown epidemic. In frustration, people (including
    the sick) came to the street and watched the "Fire Dragon" dance. As a
    miracle or due to the intense heat, many sick recovered and the epidemic
    disappeared.

     

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:34pm

    #32
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Thetallestmanonearth said:

    I'm having to travel a lot domestically right now. Hardly anyone in the airports are wearing masks.  Effective immediately I'm wearing a mask on all flights and using diluted colloidal silver eye drops.  I'm on high dose vitamin C, and taking elderberry and raw garlic regularly.  I'm also focusing on eating healthy and not drinking at all while on the road.  Everything I can do to give my immune system the best chance possible to avoid this.  They won't shut down airports until sustained human to human transmission within the US is confirmed and by the time that happens it'll be two weeks too late to contain it.  The nightmare scenario is a carrier attending the Super Bowl.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:46pm

    #33

    SailAway

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Aug 11 2010

    Posts: 236

    Virus cycle

    Dr Materson,

    In the spreadsheet that you show in the video, what is your estimation of the virus cycle?

    Thank you!

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:49pm

    #34

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    5+

    Chris, are you going to share?

    Okay folks lets take a big picture look.  When I put “coronavirus” in my search bar only official websites come up.  PP is not one of the top searches.  Apparently reddit has been scrubbed.  There may be those who don't like Chris telling the truth and raining on the money-ed media toes.

    George Orwell said “truth is treason in an empire of lies.”

    Something tells me its only a matter of time before PP gets the “official” your wading in our pool speech. Sooo how can we support PP and keep it from going dark?  Do we need to be concerned about that?  Anyone?

    Thanks

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:55pm

    Mots

    Mots

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 222

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    no evidence

    1. There is no evidence that the Chinese military or that anyone in China made this.

    2. The idea is that someone with restrictive lab access (with records of such) made this and that it got out of control.   Because America is in an undeclared war with China, I expect an information propaganda to obscure the reality somehow on this point.
    3. If you think that a biomaterial mistake is bad, just wait until an autonomous killing machine gets out of custody.  And, later on, self assembling/manufacturing killing machines.
    4. In my opinion, all such problems lead to the same solution: sustainable/resilient small community development. Such community focuses on knowledge and control of its immediate environment and resources.  A carbon life form on a carbon planet cannot be overcome by silicon life form or by bio-games if well settled into its niche.
    We need to spend our energies on our neighborhoods and small community.  No time for speculation or theories because regardless of the truth, CNN/MSNBC/CIA/FBI/NSA/FACEBOOK/GOOGLE/DOD control the story and you cannot fight them.  They thrive on fights and have massive weapons to succeed.  We need enough information to build our defenses, and walk away.  The winners are the non-TWP (television watching people) who refuse to engage in their fights.  They need us more than we need them if our communities are set up and thriving.

    After this virus episode tapers off I hope that the new members of this website take a close look at what CM is doing to build resilient small community.  That is the real, long term value of this website, in my opinion.  This virus episode is merely an example of what kind of high power analyses CM and CM's extended group offers members...................

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 3:59pm

    #36
    nlbaodds

    nlbaodds

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    sustaining localized outbreaks

    Look at this link

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#%20

    Serious study from the Lancet

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:13pm

    #37

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 352

    3+

    You tube channel with on-the ground information

    Link

    Watch for yourself.  My guess from watching most of them is that Wuhan is descending into chaos and a huge humanitarian crisis is underway.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:19pm

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 24

    Kgluong said:

    People are dropping dead in china. They are dying on the streets. China hospital are filled with the dead and sicks. If US hospitals are overwhelmed the last place you want to be is in a hospital.

    It is estimated (computer model) well over 100k infected in china.

     

    Supply chains have been broken. Dead and infected people don't go to work. Expect prices to increase all across the board.

    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1223078977377423361/pu/vid/272x480/5w6BmGkP9ipcoysk.mp4?tag=10

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:21pm

    #39

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 117

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    Zerohedge booted off Twitter

    I  joined Twitter today in hopes of following the pandemic better. Zerohedge's latest post to their website is concerning the possible " HIV insertions" into the Virus. This is getting creepy.....

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:30pm

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Kgluong said:

    Good link.  Great resources to use against fools that think china is fine and under control.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:54pm

    #41

    thc0655

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    Is Wuhu Flu an escaped bio-weapon?

    So today we get reports (unconfirmed and not peer reviewed) that Wuhu Flu hits men much more frequently than women and seems to have parts of the HIV virus built into it (couldn’t have happened naturally). If those two claims turn out to verified, I don’t need any more evidence: it IS a bio-weapon. I’ve always referred to that kind of thing as “self-punishing behavior.” It’s only a shame it doesn’t exclusively affect members of the Chinese Communist Party.

    “Happy Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor.”

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 5:04pm

    #42
    Matties

    Matties

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    Ground your pet

    https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/31/pets-can-carry-wuhan-coronavirus-too-says-expert/

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 5:21pm

    #43

    msnrochny

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    Coronavirus Contains "HIV Insertions", Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon

    Latest from Zero Hedge.  In my mind, there’s a growing list of variables that says this bug is man-made.  The extremely high R0 is awfully convenient - something you’d want in a weapon.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 5:34pm

    #44
    Chris Martenson

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    By the numbers: No international deaths so far

    Well, the good news is no international deaths so far.  On that front, nCoV is not nearly as lethal as SARS.

    As well the reported confirmed and serious/critical cases are now tracking well south of the recent exponential trend.

    So today was the first break in that trend since the beginning.  Row 3 called for 13,100 cases and 2,620 serious cases (which we'd need to include back in some of the dead and the released as both would have been part of that serious count at one point, but still is lower than expected as the entire lot would only get is to ~2,300 vs 2,620):

    So it was 11.9 k cases vs 13.1 k

    That's a pretty hefty departure.

    One of several explanations could apply.

    1) The Chinese government is just winging it and making up sorta reasonable sounding numbers.

    2) We're actually tracking the rate of increase in China's ability to manufacture and distribute test kits.

    3) The quarantines are working and the trend has been broken.

    Possibly some combination of all three?

    Regardless, I really don't trust the CCP here to provide accurate info.  So I'm not staking much on these numbers...a little bit, but not a lot.

    I sure wish we could get some non-state info out of China.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 5:44pm

    #45
    henryse

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    Fibonacci Number Sequence

    Funny enough all of these infection rates look like the Fibonacci Number series.   Just a thought.   Keep up the good work.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:01pm

    #46
    Matties

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    No international deaths so far, virus targeting Asians better ?

    Early research found that this coronavirus targets the ACE2 receptor, which is found in Asians at roughly five-times the rate of other global populations.

    Logistical and technical analysis of the origins of the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:04pm

    kristen braun

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    4th possibility

    4th .. they only have so many test kits per day.  This would explain the leveling off of the increase of confirmed cases.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:16pm

    RebelYell

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    (2) could be good or bad

    Your reason (2) could cause what we are seeing as the result of three fundamentally different reasons.

    The first, pessimsitic, reason is that infections are spiralling out of control and the manufacturing rate of test kits is not keeping pace.

    The second, optimistic, reason would be that initially test kits were unavailable and the case count fell behind reality.  However as test kit production ramped up, sufficient test kits were available to test all patients.  This caused a temporary spike in case counts for 2-3 days as doctors caught up, with a subsequent taper as they are now ony testing new cases.

    The third possible reason is that there are far, far more cases than have been reported - and the doctors can't possibly keep up no matter how many tests they run and the number of new daily confirmed cases is so small compared to the  number of existing infections that it basically doesn't tell us much at all - good or bad - about R0 or anything else.

    I think the point here is that there are just to many unknowns to feel confident of any conclusion.  More data and accurate data is essential to increase confidence.

    Wuhan is probably too much of a mess to ever feel confident about the accuracy of what's coming out.  But looking at the data series separately from Zhejiang, Guangdong, Henan, Hunan etc. might prove more instructive as the case load is not yet high enough to be overwhelming the health system.

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:18pm

    #49
    pat the rat

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    hunger

    No a mount of orders from above are going keep people in there homes if they get hungry enough, now they are going to have feed the 50 million people china in lock down! This will have to go on for an unknown  amount of time.May the food always be in your favor.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:27pm

    #50

    Jbarney

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    Another Perspective

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-wuhan-infected-coronavirus.html

    I don't know if this has been discussed here yet, but I thought I would post.  75,000 cases estimated by at least one medical journal.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:30pm

    #51

    msnrochny

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    Chris - Is There Any Way to Estimate How Fast Time-Wise This Will Sweep Over the Globe?

    If one assumes an R0 of 3.5 to 4.1, is there anyway to “guess” how long until this is making us want to stay inside?  Perhaps a range estimate of 3-6 months?  I’m thinking if we had an estimate, it would allow us to better plan and prepare.

    Also, is the 6-9 month period for a typical pandemic reasonable?  Lately, I’ve read about pandemics that lasted 18-months.  This virus seems like something very new.  Should we be thinking about trying to isolate for a longer time frame?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:32pm

    Chris Martenson

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    nCoV and HIV

    OK, does the progression of this disease have any similarities whatsoever with HIV? That idea just seems preposterous on it’s face.

    Nope.

    I'm tracking the story from the 'bioengineered' paper carefully.  I actually read the whole thing this morning, but decided I needed to let some other qualified people in the field react to it before I made too much of it.

    The issue is that the researchers from India discovered that there are four relatively short, but significant, amino acid inserts in the corona spike proteins that seem to (based on modeled folding, not experimental crystallography) converge on the receptor binding area.

    That would be super unusual.  That's the one area that's usually most highly 'conserved' because any changes there tend to make binding worse, not better.  Even a single, solitary amino acid change at that position can wreck the whole thing.  To have 4?  And that are really quite large?

    As I understand it, that's odd.  This is a map of the amino acid sequence of the spike protein.  The top row is nCoV.  The second row is SARS, and everything in red is where there is 'consensus' between the two coronaviruses.

    I want you to pay attention to insert 1 in particular.  It's not just that it's a swap or substitution of one amino acid for another (aka a mutation) it's a complete insert of a whopping 7 amino acids.

    This is a bit tricky to explain, but what confers the functionality to a protein is its overall 3D shape.  It has to have exactly the right shape to work.  Inserting a whole chunk of new material into a long, complex string that then has to fold into an intricate origami of alpha helixes and beta sheets, with all the various charges lining up into a stable configuration is usually a recipe for disaster.

    The shape is all wrong, and 'poof!' the whole thing is a mess for its intended purpose.

    Remember, the entire purpose of a spike protein is to dock the virus with the ACE2 receptor to gain entry into the cell so it can take it over.

    It is the exact configuration of the spike protein that confers the species 'preference' of the virus.  Change it slightly and it no longer works on bats, but will work in snakes.  With a different substitution it will work in giraffes but not monkeys.

    So the changes in the spike proteins were being examined because that gives the clues as to how it managed to jump to humans.

    Well, when the researchers starting digging around in their massive genetic databases hunting for similar sequences as these inserts, they got these hits from the HIV virus (which is totally not related to nCoV in any way).

    All four inserts had varying degrees of matching. Inserts 1 and 2 were perfect matches to the gp120 spike protein on HIV which, it should be noted, is the name of the docking protein that binds to human cells and allows HIV to gain entry.

    Insert 3 lines up pretty well with HIV, but is missing three amino acids (in red) compared to HIV.  Insert 4 is missing 11 amino acids and has a much larger gap.

    The authors rather gently concluded that the uncanny similarity of the inserts to those found in HIV was  "unlikely to be fortuitous."

    This study needs to be replicated, and I'll need other qualified virologists to weigh in and confirm this before I make anything of it.  I remain interested but I'm very far from coming to any particular conclusion.

    In conclusion, let me also put a stop to the "HIV drugs work against, nCoV, therefore that proves something" conjecture.  The drugs mainly work by inhibiting the replication inside the cell after infection.  HIV is a retrovirus (negative sense RNA) while nCoV is a positive sense RNA.  They replicate by entirely different machinery.

    Many HIV drugs target the reverse transcriptase enzyme that HIV needs to converts it's core RNA message into DNA.    These would be completely useless against nCoV because it doesn't have that enzyme.

    The only drug that would be effective in both HIV and for nCoV based on the paper being discussed is one that specifically targeted the region of the spike protein that had been modified.  There might be one that does that, but I couldn't find it by Googling.

    Otherwise, the drugs such as protease inhibitors would be expected to work against a wide variety of viruses but not because of the spike protein changes discussed above.

    There.  That's perhaps more than you wanted to know, but there's a lot of attention on this and I wanted to be sure we're having a fact-based discussion.

     

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:39pm

    #53

    sand_puppy

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    The article Chris Mentions above on Ro = 4.1

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1

    Abstract

    We estimate the effective reproduction number for 2019-nCoV based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The results indicate that 2019-nCoV has a higher effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

    And here is the way that this high infectivity builds.  Wow.  At some point everyone "gets it" and the chain of transmission is slowed by quarantines and social distancing.  --But as an intellectual exercise, this builds fast.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:39pm

    RebelYell

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    R0 is not enough information by itself to answer that

    R0 is a very important number.  But it does not *directly* say anything about the rate of infections and the period of time required for the epidemic to burn itself out.

    R0 depends both on the likelihood of transmission in any given time period and on the period for which a carrier remains infectious.

    Once we accept an R0 high enough to cause a pandemic, then the first of those factors is probably more important than R0 itself in terms of answering your questions.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:42pm

    RebelYell

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    The HIV genome story appears to have attracted lots of peer criticism

    A large number of scientists have responded indicating, amongst other criticisms, that the highlighted genomes are sometimes found in corona viruses, and are therfore definitely not unique to HIV.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:53pm

    #56

    dtrammel

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    Health Progression from One Victim

    CNN has a report on the progression of nCov in one American victim. Interesting progression of symptoms.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

    Seems like a fever and coughs are typical, and fatigue but that's to be expected with both. Less typical are nausea, runny nose, vomiting and diarrhea. That would indicate that medicinals which treat fever and cough would be a priority for home treatment.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:59pm

    #57
    JimOz

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    Corona virus remains infectious for 5 days on surfaces!

    Something you buy at the supermarket could be covered in virus and continue to be infectious for up to 5 days
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4659470/
    So be paranoid about using hand sanitizer and consider "quarantining" purchases for 5 days

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 7:13pm

    #58

    dtrammel

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    dtrammel said:

    A large number of scientists have responded indicating, amongst other criticisms, that the highlighted genomes are sometimes found in corona viruses, and are therfore definitely not unique to HIV.

    I said in a post on another thread, we are in for a period of maximun disinformation for the next week or two. The more that public forums are talking up the "its a bioweapon targeting AIDs people", or the new one "your pets can get it so toss them off a tall building" get attention, the less people will take prudent and practical advice and make real preparation.

    If you are scared and freaked out, people who do not have your best interests at heart can use this crisis to manipulate us all.

    Imagine if nCov does go global pandemic and the peak season is the Summer. A few thousand deaths and local self quarantine is all the excuse the Elite needs to argue we should delay the US elections, isn't it.

    Be informed, but don't let really off the wall theories take control of you.

    And really, even if it were suddenly proved that China did steal and then weaponize nCov, how would that change your preparations to make yourself safe?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 7:19pm

    #59
    mEad0w.larK

    mEad0w.larK

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    Why is the rate of infection in US not going crazy yet?

    Whitney Webb wrote an great article, describing the weaponization of these viruses.

    https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/bats-gene-editing-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

    I would have expected more cases going exponential in the US, but maybe it's just early yet.

    Although one paragraph in Whitneys reporting may explain this.

    "In addition, one preliminary study on the coronavirus responsible for the current outbreak found that the receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), is not only the same as that used by the SARS coronavirus, but that East Asians present a much higher ratio of lung cells that express that receptor than the other ethnicities (Caucasian and African-American) included in the study. However, such findings are preliminary and the sample size is too small to draw any definitive conclusions from that preliminary data."

    Any thoughts?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 7:28pm

    Willy Winky

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    Willy Winky said:

    In 2018 - 800,000 Americans were hospitalized with a virus that has symptoms similar to that of the coronavirus (fever, cough, difficulty breathing) and 61,000 Americans died from this disease.

    From the Bloomberg article, many hospitals were overwhelmed with cases of the virus and were treating sufferers 'in their parking lots'
    The CDC indicates that 'the key difference between the coronavirus and the flu that struck the US in 2018 is that people most at risk 'will have either travelled to China or been in close contact with an infected individual'
    America has less than 1/4 the population of China - so for the current virus to rival the impact of the 2018 Flu in America, we'd need to see nearly 200,000 DEATHS and close to 3.5 MILLION infections.
    Forgive my ignorance, but the coronavirus simply sounds like just another version of 'the flu'
    Even the CDC says the only real difference is that you catch one in China.  Otherwise it's a flu virus.
    So why are we locking down an entire country and creating a global PANIC?
    I don't even recall reading anything about the massive flu pandemic in the States in 2018.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 7:47pm

    #61
    obizzozero

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    Zinc helps against with the common cold, so it may help here as well

    https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 8:28pm

    #62
    saturn_ls1

    saturn_ls1

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    Question?

    "average infectious period" - For an effective 'lock down' baits the question are the transmission mechanisms very similar to other flu viruses? Is the virus survivability profile similar?

    Also what's been the experience with SARS from an ongoing recurrence standpoint?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 8:41pm

    mahkj

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    Thanks Mots -

    If I were eloquent - I would have written that post... 🙂

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 8:50pm

    VeganDB12

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    VeganDB12 said:

    This coronavirus death rate is much higher than the flu death rate in China according to China's statistics.  How do you explai

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:06pm

    #65

    Snydeman

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    I think

    I think I just learned more science in one post than I did my sophomore year of high school.

     

    Granted, I’m intrinsically motivated these days...

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:59pm

    #66

    shawns333

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    2019-nCoV Just Came to My Neighborhood

    Hello from the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley. We heard earlier today that in our county, we have our first case...

    Here's the article:

    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/coronavirus-Santa-Clara-Bay-Area-San-Francisco-15021074.php

    The person is "self-isolating" and not in the hospital...

    Chris; you'll love the advice in the article, pretty divergent from all that you've been saying, such as:

    • no reason to wear a mask, unless you're sick and the chance you'll get others sick
    • no reason to stock up on food
    • just check out the CDC website for what you  need to do and know

    That's it, no worries, really. Right?

    Oh, also, the paragraph about the fatality rate. Am I the only person that has trouble reading the part about whether the fatality rate is "2 to 3 percent" and then late "0.1 percent"? That confused me. Are they trying to minimize by obfuscation or is there some nuance there in what they're trying to say that I missed?

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 10:02pm

    Jess Condra

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    Jess Condra said:

    Eat well (lots of veggies), sleep well, try to take very good care of yourself during this time.  If possible, wear gloves to work.  If you can't, wash your hands with soap and water as frequently as possible.   Make sure not to ever touch your eyes/nose/mouth.   Also, perhaps you could arrange to work during the least busy times, rather than the most busy.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 10:20pm

    #68
    El777

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    Non State, Insider Report within Wuhan on Jan. 30 11am Beijing Time/Jan. 29 10pm EST

    Hi Chris,

    Have you seen this man's video? It was recorded on Jan. 30. 11am, Beijng Time. And it revealed what's happening within Wuhan. I think it confirmed a lot of our worst fears of test kits running woefully short, confirmed cases vastly under reported, terrifying conditions in hospitals, and extreme censorship enforced by the communist government.

    I just registered this account to let you know about this, in case you didn't. Please watch and share with us your take on it. And thank you for all the work you've done! I have sprung into action to prepare for this pandemic which would've never happened had it not been for your data driven, incredibly informative videos!!

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:36pm

    mntnhousepermi

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    I found it quite clear

    Oh, also, the paragraph about the fatality rate. Am I the only person that has trouble reading the part about whether the fatality rate is “2 to 3 percent” and then late “0.1 percent”? That confused me. Are they trying to minimize by obfuscation or is there some nuance there in what they’re trying to say that I missed?

    "

    The last sentance saying "it" has a fatality rate of .o1% is refering to the subject of the previous sentence, the common flu.  So, whomever transcribed this from the person speaking started a new sentence, used a period where there should have been a comma is all

    "There’s a lot we don’t know about coronavirus, and one is the case fatality rate -- what percentage of patients will die of the illness," said Dr. Chiu of UCSF. "It does appear based on the data available so far that this appears to be less deadly than SARS at 2 to 3 percent, and for SARS, it was about 10 percent. This is still a more severe disease than the flu. It has a mortality rate of .o1 percent."

    For a local paper here in the bay area, I thought they did a decent job.  All the papers fired their editing departments a few years ago.

    Saying that there is currently no need to wear a mask when leaving ones home seems the correct thing to say !  That doesnt mean to not own masks, or to not use them if a need arises,  but this is true, we do not need to wear a mask right now when we leave the house !

    I think the main difference in tone between here and that article is that here we have been discussing what to be prepared to do IF this escalates.  The newspaper article was addressing what was needed now.  It did not address a potential higher risk future in the disease cycle.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:51pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Article missing alot of information !

    I am referring to the article linked by Dave T.,  the case of the one USA patient in Washington State.  HE did the right thing in that he was in Wuhan, and went and got it diagnosed.  Ok.  And we see the list of symptoms on the timeline,  none of which would otherwise send me to the hospital or doctor in and of themselves.  So, he of course needed to be in isolation since we are learning about and worried about this disease.

    But, other than that, did he need that kind of care ?  Nowhere was this addressed ! SO, it told me nothing about his severity.  Did he have trouble breathing ? Did he need intubation ? Or an oxegen mask ? Was he so sick that he couldnt drink and needed an IV ?

     

    So, I am left not knowing where he was on the sickness spectrum

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:09am

    #71

    Ivo

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    Posts: 25

    Diary from Wuhan

    A correspondent of a leading Dutch newspaper traveled to Wuhan. This is a link to her diary from Friday last week until yesterday. In Dutch, so run through Google Translate: https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2020/acht-dagen-in-angstig-wuhan-berichten-uit-een-besmette-stad~v86187/

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:29am

    #72
    VTGothic

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    VTGothic said:

    Several things seem increasingly clear:

    1. R0 values are not very reliable in the heat of an outbreak, except as a way to measure momentum. The numbers of infected:deaths are too fluid and too dependent on a number of human and political factors prone to error to be meaningful indicators of virulence.

    2. Initial trajectories, such as the greater susceptibility of elderly and chronically ill, is really self-evident and doesn't say much about overall trajectory. Similarly, the greater penchant for attacking males may be due as much to the reported greater proportion of men at the Wuhan market. More important is the longer term trajectory as 2nd and 3rd generation transfers of the virus are tracked. If they still show a prediliction for males, it's time to sit up and take notice. Similarly, if the virus continues to attack the elderly and chronically infirm in numbers exceeding their percent of a local population, then it's a vector for specialized attention.

    3. Conspiracy theories about the elites looking to cull populations are simply not helpful. Such "answers" ought be the last entertained, only after every other explanation has been exhausted. "They" just don't show signs of being that monolithic - unless viewed from an already jaundiced perspective looking for proofs. But that's just proof-texting.

    4. It is likely still true that in the modern era 1st world countries weather disease outbreaks much better than 3rd world, and the northern hemisphere better than the southern. It's a matter of ambient environment and available medical care.

    Watchfulness is appropriate. Fear and panic are not.

    If this event serves to move many from an interest in acting on resilience to taking steps - enacting a series of action steps to enhance personal and local community robustness - that would be a good thing.

    Life is going to get rough going forward for all the reasons encapsulated in the concept of "peak prosperity." Too few are prepared in fact for the coming times. I expect most will fail to learn from this episode and will go back to sleep when this crisis has run its course.

    In the end, if your own troubled dreams don't wake you up and get you moving, such transient events as this virus won't either.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 1:38am

    #73
    Ejohnson

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    Naming contest

    In response to thc0655, i propose we call it 2019-nCOVfefe, due to the mysterious nature and lack of good data common to both this virus and certain executive tweets.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 2:30am

    #74
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    Update: Total 15 "missing" Americans from Wuhan nCoV rescue flight?

    Doing the math based on CDC/media reports, there seems to be 15 Americans that are unaccounted for from when their chartered flight left Wuhan (with 210 passengers) to quarantine (195 passengers) at March AFB in California.

    A recap: 210 passengers reportedly left Wuhan on a chartered plane that could carry 240 people (including crew, actual number unknown). They had a stopover in Anchorage, Alaska and media reported only 201 boarded the plane there and arrived in California. Most recent reports give a new figure of 195 passengers under the 14-day quarantine at March AFB. What happened to those 15 unaccounted for Americans that were on the initial flight from Wuhan?

    All media reports give assurances that the passenger counts as given (initially 210; then 201; now 195) passed testing for the virus. But there's no mention of whether/how many passengers (or crew) may not have passed testing, and no explanation given for the discrepancies in passenger counts.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 2:42am

    Wilco

    Wilco

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    Naming contest

    I would tweek thc0655's name (WuHu Flu) to WooHoo Flu. And ya, laughing to keep from crying at this point...

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 3:05am

    Wilco

    Wilco

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    Reply to Tim Soper - Get a book

    Tim and all, in addition to what Mots suggested, I'd recommend a disaster preparedness book. Lots of them out there these days, I use the ones written by Arthur T. Bradley. If the internet goes out you'll be very happy to own one of these books. You can share it with your friends and neighbors too.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 4:50am

    #77
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    German cluster showing patients can be contagious before and after illness

    Dr Campbell discusses information from New England Journal of Medicine on cluster of cases in Germany.  He is old enough to use paper and marker instead of powerpoint and explains things pretty clearly, supporting all of Chris' points (except he thinks RO is 2.68 which is still serious).

    His points:

    5 cases, 4 proven to be contracted while everyone felt well, at least one still shedding virus after he returned to work well. all cases milder (not requiring hospitalization).

    The NEJM article

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 5:00am

    Krystelle Ellaby

    Krystelle Ellaby

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    some budget friendly ideas.

    Along with the elderberry syrup; Garlic, fire cider, Manuka honey and any over the counter cold and flu tablets you normally take. Also get a couple jars of vitamins.

    To keep things clean: masks, rubbing alcohol, bleach and hand sanitizer.

    For food:

    This is not a balanced diet, its not enough calories for a healthy adult, it’s just a jumping off point:

    100g or about 3 to 4 oz of pasta or rice is one serve. So for 1 person for 3 months you need around 20kgs or 44lb. Then you can supplement that with tinned meat or beans. 30 tins for a one month supply. Buy a couple boxes of oats, nuts and dried fruit to make overnight oats or muesli.

    Buy some radish and beets, plant them in a pot and eat the leaves, for fresh greens. Simple dressing for salad is fire cider, garlic and olive oil.

    I just got divorced, just moved, I haven’t got much, but I spent about $500 Australian or about $350 us for two people and hopefully it’s enough carbs at least, that I don’t have to go to the shops for a few months.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 5:03am

    #79

    msnrochny

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    Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

    Forecast spread article from “The Lancet”.

    “Given that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen together accounted for more than 50% of all outbound international air travel in mainland China, other countries would likely be at risk of experiencing 2019-nCoV epidemics during the first half of 2020.”

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 5:24am

    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

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    KugsCheese said:

    AHCC to boost immune system.  Expensive but worth it.   LEF.ORG has best price in USA.   https://www.lifeextension.com/vitamins-supplements/item24404/kinoko-platinum-ahcc

    7 confirmed USA cases as go yesterday.  So in a few days we should see ~28.   Will PP have a count on home page so we can keep track?

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:05am

    #81

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

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    Speaking of the immune system

    Another way to prep is to supercharge your body’s immune and healing systems.  Make sure your blood is not sluggish, your veins semi rigid and make sure that your blood contains all the micronutrients and antioxidants it needs to be ready.

    No pills or supplements are required, except B12.  Simply eat fresh fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts and whole grains for the duration of the pandemic.  Your body will be as prepared as possible to fight off illness.

    Once the virus has run it’s course, pizza, hamburgers and Cheetos will still be available.

    Did you know that protein is not a problem?  Over 97% of Americans get more than enough, averaging almost twice the daily requirements, including vegans.

    Fiber is one of the big deficiencies, with 97% of Americans getting an average of less than half of the recommended daily allowance.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:09am

    Jeffrey Mohn

    Jeffrey Mohn

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    Jeffrey Mohn said:

    If you hoard masks you’ll be in a position to help the needy very effectively when masks are out of stock

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:11am

    DavidSV

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    If R0 is > 3 ot 4 and the infected are contagious before AND after symptoms

    If (a) the person-to-person-infected are contagious before AND after symptoms, as observed in Germany cases (NEJM report) and (b) R0 is indeed 3-4 or more and (c) this was left to run wild for a couple of months in China before lock-down, which has probably resulted in large 6 figure numbers of infected already, then the outcome is fait accompli in this highly-connected world of ours.

    Most of us are going to get infected, short of a vaccine miracle, IMO.

    Still keeping with the best practices to avoid it, but better to be realistic.  Focus on staying as healthy as possible so as to weather this storm.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048518/coronavirus-case-load-and-death-toll-china-rise-epicentre-hubei-province

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:13am

    Dave 0131

    Dave 0131

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    Questions for Chris

    Chris,  Thank you for all your information.  This is such a big story and mainstream media is focused elsewhere.

    One of the links above which looked credible said that Asians has about 5 times more ACE2 receptors than other populations.  https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/    Is that true, and if so will that impact and the R naught factor outside of Asia?

    Another You Tube link had a doctor that said hand sanitizer MAY NOT effectively kill this virus.  Sorry but cannot find the link, ....Can you comment?

    Another link from within this chain showed Zinc may help against this virus.  Any recommendations on Zinc and/or other supplements, and is there any specific grade or difference on Zinc tablets?

    Thank you

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:34am

    #85

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Don’t sneeze on me

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 6:59am

    Tim Soper

    Tim Soper

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    Thanks Wilco

    I’ve got a good sized library of 500+ books so I won’t be bored if we lose internet. That sounds like a good addition. Thanks Wilco!

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:07am

    #87

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    Good Point About Spread vs Lethality

    BBC had a fairly balanced article out this morning.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-is-less-deadly-than-sars-but-that-may-explain-why-its-so-contagious-2020-01-30

    Which made a good point about spread and lethality.

    "Two months into the epidemic, the coronavirus has not proven to be as deadly as the SARS virus. That, however, may also help explain why it’s spreading so quickly. It has an incubation period of up to two weeks, which enables the virus to spread through person-to-person contact.

    The coronavirus, a highly contagious, pneumonia-causing illness that infects the respiratory tract, was responsible for 259 deaths in China, with 46 new deaths reported in the previous 24-hour period, and 11,791 infections worldwide, according to the latest figures released by China’s National Health Commission on Saturday (late Friday, EST).

    SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, infected 8,096 people worldwide with approximately 774 official SARS-related deaths; most of those infections occured during a nine-month period from 2002 to 2003. Even with 43 new fatalities reported over 24 hours, the fatality rate remains steady.

    SARS had a fatality rate of 9.6% compared to the fatality rate of 2% for the coronavirus, which has remained steady for the last several weeks. However, that death toll could rise as the weeks progress, and drug companies scramble to come up with a vaccine for the virus. Whether the fatality rate remains steady has yet to be determined.

    The difference in these two fatality rates gives more context as to why the coronavirus has spread so quickly. Medical experts say an effective flu-like virus can extend its reach by not killing its host too rapidly and/or making the host sick enough to pass it on before finally becoming bedridden.

    “Every now and then a disease becomes so dangerous that it kills the host,” Matan Shelomi, an entomologist and assistant professor at National Taiwan University, wrote on Quora in 2017. But, ideally for the host at least, it must strike a balance.

    “If the disease is able to spread to another host before the first host dies, then it is not too lethal to exist. Evolution cannot make it less lethal so long as it can still spread,” he added. “If a hypothetical disease eradicates its only host, both will indeed go extinct.”

    ----

    So watching the number of fatalities is wise but its more important to watch how many people get infected. Aka the R0 number.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:08am

    #88

    ktruddymd

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    Genetic Sequences of 2019 nCoV -

    This non-peered scientific paper (presumably) authored by Indian scientists reports genetic sequences of 2019 nCoV that are similar, and functionally capable of constructing the cell membrane receptor found in HIV ... which elevates this virus from "novel" to synthetic.

    I refer you to the article and ask that you read it skeptically but as if it were true.  We'll know the truth soon, I hope.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon

    When people were duly worried about Katrina or Sandy, Cat 5 hurricanes headed for their door, they were not deemed "panicky" or prone to conspiracy theories.  Quite the opposite was thought to be true of those who chose to 'wait it out'.

    Doc

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:21am

    #89

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

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    We are all saved now!

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fashion-magazines-influencers-weigh-coronavirus-outbreak-n1127236

    "

    How to remain safe and stylish in the midst of the rapidly widening coronavirus epidemic? Fashion magazines and influencers say they have you covered.

    Britain's Tatler — a Condé Nast publication — posted a story with the startling headline: “How to style an epidemic.”

    The piece acknowledged the coronavirus anxiety by noting, “The social set are now rushing to get their hands on surgical-grade face masks.”

    The story also explained that style-lovers may wonder, “How do I stay chic in the event of an epidemic?”

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:27am

    #90

    Olduvai.ca

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    "Everything is under control"

    A great example of maintaining an "Everything is under control" narrative out of Canada and its 4th 'acknowledged' case.

    Listening to CBC radio while in the car, the 4th case was outlined of a Western University student (London, Ontario) who had returned to London after a trip to Wuhan with her parents. Showing flu symptoms, she reported to University Hospital in London, was tested for the virus, and released after the test results were negative. Increasing symptoms sent her back to the hospital and another test. Surprise, surprise, after several days back in the community, but supposedly under self-isolation, the 2nd test came back positive. The health official quoted in the radio report stated everything was done properly, by the book, according the best scientific standards, it was only a 'mild' case, and "Everything is under control."

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:37am

    #91

    dtrammel

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    Posts: 800

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    Super Spreaders - Remember R0 is an "average"

    https://www.wired.com/story/wuhan-coronavirus-super-spreaders-could-be-wildcards/

    Discusses "super spreaders", aka people who are either more infectious or have a longer period where they are infectious. So your housemate might come down with nCov and not pass it on to you, or pass it on to a dozen (including you). A factor could be in how well preventative measures are used. A super spreader who self quarantines and doesn't go out, can't infect people.

    Early reports that people continue to be infectious after the serious symptoms have passed is very worrisome though.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:40am

    #92

    saxplayer00o1

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    Coronavirus: Wuhan may be home to 75,815 infected people, report says

    Coronavirus: Wuhan may be home to 75,815 infected people, report says
     

    • Findings by scientists at Hong Kong University based on the assumption that each infected patient could have infected 2.68 others
    • Meanwhile, numbers of new infections and deaths set daily records

    Authorities in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, reported 45 new deaths and 1,347 new confirmed cases on Saturday – both daily highs. Of the newly reported deaths, 33 were in Wuhan, the provincial capital, according to the Hubei Health Commission.

    ............................................Sars expert Zhong Nanshan said in a press conference on January 21 that a super-spreader had infected 14 medical staff in a hospital in Wuhan.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:46am

    #93
    kunga

    kunga

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    2020 US Census

    Thank you, PP and Chris.     A reminder, the census is due to start April 1, 2020.  I will fill out on line.  I want no one at my door.  I have already got my 2019 tax materials to accountant with fee payment.  Unfortunately, due to late changes, electronic filing is delayed. Paid down credit card. Registered my vehicle 3 months early.  Trying to figure out everything I can pay by credit card and over the net.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:47am

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    NEJM Case Study of 1st Patient - More Details

    I am referring to the article linked by Dave T.,  the case of the one USA patient in Washington State.  HE did the right thing in that he was in Wuhan, and went and got it diagnosed.  Ok.  And we see the list of symptoms on the timeline,  none of which would otherwise send me to the hospital or doctor in and of themselves.  So, he of course needed to be in isolation since we are learning about and worried about this disease.

    But, other than that, did he need that kind of care ?  Nowhere was this addressed ! SO, it told me nothing about his severity.  Did he have trouble breathing ? Did he need intubation ? Or an oxegen mask ? Was he so sick that he couldnt drink and needed an IV ?"

    Here is the link to the New England Journal of Medicine article referenced in the first article. Should have more detail.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:49am

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Kgluong said:

    The MSM have been downplaying nCoV from day one. So it not surprising to tell everyone it not man made. It the same thing they did with denying Asymptomatic when Chinese people posted it is Asymptomatic. The media still think this is no deadlier than a common flue.

     

    Government and scientists move too slowly to address issues coming up in social medias on this fast changing nCoV. Media isn't doing it job. I trust the common people long before I trust these people in charge.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:51am

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Kgluong said:

    When the government tells you it under control it time to panic.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:56am

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Posts: 24

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    Kgluong said:

    This virus is just too perfect. It does everything right.

    1. Stealth

    2. High Infection Rate

    3. Right amount of fatality so it doesn't burn out.

    4. Long incubation.

    5. Can reinfect people that already cured.

    6. Cured people can reinfect others.

     

    Just too perfect and form an infinity loop.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 7:57am

    #98
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 342

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    Life Insurance

    Will company pay you or declare bankruptcy?

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 8:04am

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Kgluong said:

    Overall computer models suggest 100,000-300,000 total infected in China. That was three days ago. Videos coming out suggest Chinese society is breaking down. Containing nCoV in China Mega cities will be the true test.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 8:09am

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 285

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    Bugging in

    My family and I here in Mongolia have been largely staying indoors since we got back on Wednesday. Other than a couple of shopping trips we've stayed indoors the whole time, and I've been doing those grocery shopping trips solo. When going out I've been carrying and using hand sanitizer on a regular basis, carrying antibacterial wipes (for shopping carts and other things), and wearing an N95 mask (that I brought from the US... I've been told you can't find any around here anymore). One thing I've realized is my longtime habit of using cash could be a higher risk than using a debit card. Applying some hand sanitizer after using a debit card point-of-sale terminal is probably a safer alternative than handling cash that any number of people could have handled prior to me. At this point I don't think the risk around here of contracting nCoV is high. BUT... I think these precautions are good habits to lock in now before it eventually spreads to Mongolia.

    Staying inside is workable but not without challenges. The good thing is we've got Netflix and cable TV, a s***-load of movies and e-books on digital storage, a bunch of home projects to work on such as my 3D printer and webcomics and crypto-trading, and our son got a new Playstation 4 for Xmas that (along with some board games and such) helps keep him and his little sister from going absolutely bug-house. Even so, it's getting increasingly hard when my daughter asks to play outside to tell her that it's just not a good idea. How do you explain the situation to a 5-year-old? You can't... you just try to be patient and try to come up with new things for her to do. At least our kids have their cousins to play with (they live in the same complex and are being kept indoors too). When things warm up a bit next week their grandparents plan on taking them to their country house. At least there they'll get to play outside without exposure risk from others. Again, at this point in this place I think our exposure risk is still very low, but if there's even a 25% chance of this coming here I think adapting our behavior is worth it. Even wearing that N95 mask. I f***ing HATE wearing that mask...

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 8:29am

    Lightning17

    Lightning17

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    Posts: 14

    Perhaps a different way of expressing this event

    When trying to assess and prioritize threats there is a simple but highly effective way of categorizing RISK and then understanding CONTROL .

    THREAT LEVEL= (Frequency  x Severity x Detection)

    For the common flu the Frequency is the R0 which is low (1.28), the Severity is low as less than 1% need hospitalization and Detection would be a low number (meaning high detectability) as people aren't infections until they show symptoms for the most part. The resultant THREAT LEVEL is relatively low.

    For the Corona - Virus the Ro is high (4), the severity is high (20% need hospitalization) and detectability is poor resulting in a high number (as infectious people are asymptomatic and cured people can be re-infected).  The THREAT LEVEL in this case is exceptionally high and as none of the three factors can be reduced through proactive measures  (no vaccine, or easy detection capability) ...other than by reducing FREQUENCY through ISOLATION of ALL CITIZENS...by definition, other than through use of ISOLATION this is out of control.

    Practically speaking, all governments will need to put in place draconian stay in place requiremnets to buy time for people to come up with proactive efforts to reduce any of the three factors (Frequency, Severity , Detectibility).

    Prepare to stay in your homes and to suffer the consequences of the virus , most likely without the assistance of the medical community as it will be overwhelmed given how high the RISK LEVEL is.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 9:31am

    BillL

    BillL

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    "losing the internet"...

    Not a chance Tim, it's best/easiest way for the controllers to manipulate the sheep.

    In the mean time, humungous profits are the only side affect they're concerned with.  You know how the big corps love huge profits regardless how many people are left broken in their wake.

    No worries though, some collateral damage (never them) is to be expected.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 9:33am

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Study of first washington state patient

    thanks Dave.  Here is link again https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    So, a healthy 35 year old male, week one, looks like typical cold/flu, second week pneumonia and needs hospital care -- my summary.  If many cases are like this, all at once, we will overwhelm the hospitals.

    Patient was a healthy 35 year old, non-smoker, male.  After the blood level oxygen monitoring showed that being low is when he was started on more intensive treatment ( see SandPuppy recommendation of buying a fingertip monitor for home use, as then you would have a real physical indication of being bad enough to want to risk a hospital ).  They confirmed with x-rays.  They treated for pneumonia with antibiotics and extra oxygen thru a nose tube. Sounds like an IV drop of fluids which also admistered the antibiotics.  They soon discontinued the antibiotics and changed to an " investigative" antiviral. This was Illness day 9 ( hospital day 5), when he had a change of respiratory status, ie., the low O2 levels and likely breathing trouble.  So, sounds like his first week was totally unremarkable, second week was realy very sick.  Taken off O2 and medicines on illness day 12.

    On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen, delivered by nasal cannula at 2 liters per minute. Given the changing clinical presentation and concern about hospital-acquired pneumonia, treatment with vancomycin (a 1750-mg loading dose followed by 1 g administered intravenously every 8 hours) and cefepime (administered intravenously every 8 hours) was initiated.

    clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy. Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7, and no adverse events were observed in association with the infusion. Vancomycin was discontinued on the evening of day 7, and cefepime was discontinued on the following day, after serial negative procalcitonin levels and negative nasal PCR testing for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

    On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.

     

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:04am

    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 148

    2+2=1

    Any chance that there is two version of the same virus? Any chance that there may be 2 virus inside of one big virus? There is a chance that it may be true? With out a lot more proof I put at about 5 % chance.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:07am

    CJL629

    CJL629

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    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 2

    How to travel?

    I have to fly from SFO where there is a Santa Clara infected to DEN next week. I can’t get out of it. How do I protect myself? Can I protect myself?

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:21am

    signalfire

    signalfire

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    Joined: May 18 2009

    Posts: 17

    Flightradar24.on Twitter

    https://twitter.com/flightradar24  has been tweeting about flights out of Wuhan sent by different governments to evacuate citizens.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:28am

    signalfire

    signalfire

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    Flight from Santa Clara to Denver

    Wear a mask the entire time, wash your hands thoroughly and often, use alcohol hand sanitizer on your hands and also face, as close to your eyes as possible but not in them; take Vitamin C 1000 mg every few hours (boosts immune system, you'll need more if you get sick, the immune response burns LOTS of Vitamin C), obviously avoid other sick people especially in the terminals. Drink lots of water (fill a personal water bottle after you go through security, don't drink plane water, it's notoriously filthy) so you don't get dehydrated. If someone on the flight seems sick, quietly ask flight attendants if they can be sequestered or otherwise (maybe they shouldn't be allowed on board?) Tough call, that one. Take a long hot shower as soon as possible after disembarking; wash face and hands immediately after getting off the plane; don't touch any surfaces in the terminal (use paper towel in bathrooms to touch things). Presume everything is poisonous or too hot to touch to make a 'game' out of it.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:32am

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    ASIAN MALES have 5 TIMES the ACE2 RECEPTOR CELLS - Crucial Fact

    According to published research (see link below) - this likely makes Asian men literally 5 times more susceptible to this kind of virus - especially in the lungs. Wow! Now that explains a lot-

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    God bless,

    -Andy.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:43am

    signalfire

    signalfire

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    signalfire said:

    Presume that ALL hospitals will be overwhelmed. Hospital personnel are not saints nor are they immune to infection. They are NOT going to be an option for the vast majority of people and are a germfest for everyone who walks into one, even on a good day. As far as preps, obviously wear a mask at work; I suspect given large amounts of Asian clientele, that may very well close soon anyways. Food/supplies: no need to order special electrolyte fluids; you need to replenish sodium, potassium, magnesium and calcium; buy OTC pills for the last three, cheap. Slightly salt your drinking water for the rest. Buy easy to prepare, no cook food, the kind you could prepare for yourself if you were almost too sick to get out of bed. You won't have much of an appetite if you're sick anyways. I'm convinced that most Americans are near-scurvy in their Vitamin C levels (unless you're a real lover of spicy foods or broccoli) and Vit C not only provides immune support, it is burned up fast in an infectious scenario. 1 gram (1000 mg) every 1-2 hours if you start feeling sick, at least supplement 1 gram a day as a normal daily dose; some advice says 'to bowel tolerance' which means too much causes diarrhea; this is a mere flush of the system and not a disease state to worry about. Some hospitals are using high dose IV C plus B vitamins to combat sepsis (blood poisoning) with great success, others apparently haven't heard of it yet. If worse gets to worser, quarantine yourself; for now, shop early morning or late at night when grocery stores are less crowded; use self checkout, assume staff are infectious/contaminated. Don't touch the cart until you wipe it down with sanitizer. Don't go anywhere crowded, starting now; good advice in any flu season. As an introvert, I'll never understand people going to the Superbowl with all the threats that entails; someone should do a study on sicknesses arising from participants 1-2 weeks later...

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 10:51am

    signalfire

    signalfire

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    Oxygen tank

    Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think people in the States can just go out and buy an oxygen tank. For one thing they're dangerous fire-wise and two, if you're sick enough to need one, you're too sick to monitor the use of it.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 11:06am

    reflector

    reflector

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    Joined: Aug 20 2011

    Posts: 263

    Re: ASIAN MALES have 5 TIMES the ACE2 RECEPTOR CELLS - Crucial Fact

    This sounds like a HUGE difference, why haven’t I heard this anywhere before? 500% difference? Does it follow that Asian males are 500% more likely to become infected, given the same exposure level?:

     

    We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 11:08am

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    YES - EXACTLY RIGHT re: ASIAN MALES and ACE2 RECEPTORS

    Very sad for East Asia and explains a lot.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 11:21am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2025

    Don’t try this CJL629

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/airline-removes-gas-mask-wearing-passenger-panics-travelers/story?id=68687275

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 11:28am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    1+

    Oxygen System

    The sick snd elderly use portable oxygen all the time.  My father who died from COPD used an in home and also a portable oxygen unit.  They can be rented and purchased on-line.  Experienced divers will also be able to figure out how to rig up an at-home oxygen system.

    Just a thought.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 11:52am

    Alex Earle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 14 2015

    Posts: 14

    2+

    Small Steps - Almost There

    I finally convinced my wife to review this situation, calmly and logically. I reiterated that hopefully this is not something to "Panic" about but preparing would be prudent. (Pray for Best; Prepare for Worst.) I explained how Complications, Rnaught & Asymptomatic Incubation Period make this a spectacular case. Add on top of that: planes have been flying in and out of China's airport since December 31 (First discovered case). We have to accept the reality that it's already in the US (WAY more than 7 cases)

    So, we made 2 lists: One for no power and one for power. Either way we have to assume life is going to change (at least for next 2 months if not longer). Our everyday habits specifically. If it got really bad, I'd have to assume government workers who are responsible for our drinking water sanitation may not be able to operate the facility. Linamar, the HUGE coal plant in Arden, NC that basically supplies electricity for Asheville, Mills River, Arden, Hendersonville etc. will at least be operating at less efficiency. In that case we'd have to be prepared for self sufficiency.  So, we made that list and have been purchasing those things in earnest (larger generator, 100 gallon water tanks, camp stove with enough small propane for 6 months, extra propane tanks for the grill). The "have power list" is almost complete. We'll finish it up today. It includes 3 months of canned goods, freeze dried foods & "snacky" items (ie-nutella) that would make life a little better during a quarantine. Extra dog food and antibiotics. 2, 50-lb bags of rice/quinoa, fruits veggies, etc. Berkey 3.5 gallon water filter.

    In the case of home health we have: (1) Antibiotics (2) Plastic room liners w/zippers, tyvek suits, full face respirator (3) Theraflu, acetaminophen, ibuprofen, Boxes of sanitize wipes, 7 gallons of bleach (4) anti-nausea, anti diarrhea, elderberry, throat lozenges, cold packs, thermometers, epipens, 7 large gallons of Gatorade (hate the stuff) plus a 1/4 lb of electrolyte mix.

    I've almost talked her into purchasing a small shot gun and pistol. (which we will probably sell after this is all over) I've got 50 hours at a tactical range logged. (lol but never purchased a weapon) So I'm confident I can ice an intruder before he has the chance to take over our property.

    Our son attends University of Arizona and I'm WORKING HARD to convince her to bring him home. She still needs a little more convincing.

    I figure by this Friday, we will have a DEFINITIVE idea of how serious this is and by next Friday the 14th know if it's full blown zombie apocalypse mode.

    Anxiously waiting, fingers crossed, hands for prayer. Still have to be prepared.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:08pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Light in the tunnel

    There is light in the tunnel. 1. This virus is targeting the ACE2 receptor which is found in Asians at roughly five-times the rate of other global populations. That is probably why we don't see big infection cases in Europe and the VS. https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/ 2. Corona virussen are susceptible for temperature. The warmer it gets the harder they have. Spring will be wanting. 3. If you are infected put on warm clothes and exercise until your sweating. Go hang above the cooking pot with potatoes, go to the sauna, anything to raise your temperature. Corona doesn't like that. Old Hong Kong story 100 years ago : HK was infected by an unknown epidemic. In frustration, people (including the sick) came to the street and danced the "Fire Dragon" dance. As a miracle or due to the intense heat, many sick recovered and the epidemic disappeared.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:13pm

    Shubug

    Shubug

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    Joined: Sep 05 2016

    Posts: 7

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    Employers

    I would value this community’s thoughts on how to manage this situation as an employee.

    I’m a site manager for a food manufacturer in the north of England.

    My concern is knowing when one should decide to implement self imposed isolation, and how exactly that would be managed with ones employer (with an eye on future employment prospects)

    hopfefully it’s not just me thinking this

     

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:30pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

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    Risk

    It almost seems like a crap shoot.  So a person goes into self imposed isolation but say half the population doesn’t and the disease continues to infect but on a slower basis.  The contagion could cross your path at any point in the future  until ....

    We might just have a future with more risk.  Might change ones outlook to concentrating on whats important rather than what we spend our time on now.

    Risk....... how to deal with it?

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:46pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

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    MERS lessons

    MERS, like SARS and the now infamous nCoV are corona virussen.

    MERS stands for Middle East respiratory syndrome. There were a few outbreaks not very long ago. Unlike China with it's bats we deal here with camels. Boy, are they infected.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2013-08-mers-coronavirus-dromedary-camels.html

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4073860/

    But if you don't kiss your beloved camel it is unlikely to be a problem. But these camels shed virussen too. The heat there is killing those quickly. Corona don't like heat.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 12:57pm

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    ASIANS are 5 TIMES MORE VULNERABLE to VIRUS - Scientists - (ACE2 Receptor Cells)

    Very sad news for East Asia. But good news for the rest of the world. This explains a great deal. Take a look-

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    https://twitter.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/1222540821016326145

    https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

    God bless,

    -Andy.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 1:17pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Re : ASIANS are 5 TIMES MORE VULNERABLE to VIRUS - Scientists - (ACE2 Receptor Cells)

    It is good news for the Asians, if this works out like i think now, because we can provide with food, masks and all the other things. Personally, it is unthinkable to let them rot. I pray for them too.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 1:49pm

    BillL

    BillL

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    Posts: 115

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    small steps...

    Alex.  I'm going to be a little pc about my comment even though it is not really my style.

    Go out an buy whatever firearms that you feel you need to protect your home.  Do it now.  Not sure why you would need permission.

    What good is tactical training if you have no firearm in your possession?  Serious question.

    Where I come from, it is the man's job to protect his family...at all costs.

    For those of us that live in out areas.  There will be no call to 911.  There won't be time.  ETA at best from our sheriff's dept. would be 30 minutes or more.

    If you live in a highly populated area and shtf, police will be overwhelmed beyond belief.

    When seconds count, and help may never come, you better have what you want and need at that moment.  Your families lives may depend on it.

    Get what you need.  Today.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 2:16pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

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    Hard to imagine

    Hard to imagine that the Chinese would target themselves.

    Or it was an outside attack or it was an error.

    Either way, the normal people are not to blame.

     

    We can help...

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 2:27pm

    fated

    fated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 16 2014

    Posts: 66

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    Employers - my thoughts

    As an employee I have already decided I will call in sick when the time is right by my parameters. By that time a number of others will be ill in society and maybe hospitals busy so it wouldn't look suspicious. I already have some holiday leave locked in for a few weeks from now so hopefully the timing will coincide... In Australia employers are expected to provide a safe workplace. I'm not sure how you would measure the risk in each workplace but nobody can stop me from being off sick, and in the midst of a situation like we are fearing but hoping won't occur I doubt anyone from work will come knocking on my front door to check up on any validity of a sick claim!

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 4:11pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    1+

    Reply to son at college Arizona

    I would not take him out of college, or rather, try and convince him to leave, he is an adult.  But, I would send him a good care package and keep in touch with what is going on.  You can even wait and not put the care package in the mail yet, but have it ready.  Include in it some masks, gloves, elderberry syrup 2 bottles of the concentrate, a forehead thermometer, one of those fingertip oxygen percentage/pulse readers, asprin or naproxene ( or whatever you use), electrolyte ( maybe just a premade salt/sugar to add to water ? ), canned soups and a hotplate, pot and can opener if he is in the dorms.

    Just have it ready.  I have a package ready for my college student, who is in an apartment, the student doesnt know I have this ready.  It is not time yet.  I also have the recommended buhner herbs, in tincture form, for the corona type viruses, as our family uses and is used to herbal healing, so it would get used.  I still need to write out directions,  write out reminder of how to deal with steps to try and keep from getting sick,  how to treat being sick at home, and when to know to go get help ( trouble breathing, Oxygen low, etc...) as going in too soon can just get a person sicker.  But, I will treat my young adult as another adult and as hard as it is to have them away, the risks are not high enough to try and drag them out of their program.

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 12:42am

    Willy Winky

    Willy Winky

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    Joined: Feb 01 2020

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    Willy Winky said:

    Nobody going to take my question?   The US had 61,000 deaths from the flu in 2018.  Yet no panic

     

    I just spoke to a doctor and he says this is just another type of flu virus.  Nothing special.  Death rates are similar any other flu.

     

    So I ask again - why are we shutting down the global economy over what is clearly just another flu virus

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 2:58am

    fated

    fated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 16 2014

    Posts: 66

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    Ask China...

    Thoughts about your questions:

    Where is your Dr based, what are his qualifications, is he an epidemiologist or virologist? Do you trust him/her with your life no qualms or questions ever???

    'The US had 61,000 deaths from the flu in 2018. Yet no panic'.  That we are aware of. This does not mean the system was not under strain and that some of those deaths were not caused by the system being under strain... or that the system was close to breaking point. See comments on the site from members who work in hospitals about the JIT system and narrow gap between beds in supply and beds needed, on a normal day.

    'I just spoke to a doctor and he says this is just another type of flu virus.' Perhaps so, but so was the 1918 Spanish Flu. Coronavirus are similar yet different to each other. This one has not yet been figured out - or at least that information has not been made public.

    'Nothing special' What is his evidence for making that conclusion...This seems to be early days (questionable) at this stage in China, and certainly so in other countries it has spread to. Some of these other countries may give us better numbers to work from to figure out how special (dangerous) it really is.

    'Death rates are similar any other flu.' Can't really make a conclusion about death rates without accurate figures. These seem to be questionable in this situation. Does he know something the Chinese don't about their death rates and how these compare to any other flu.

    'So I ask again – why are we shutting down the global economy over what is clearly just another flu virus' - I have no idea, only personal suspicions (some fact based, some 'conspiracy theories'). So = Ask China. They seem to have a reason/s for a very serious quarantine and lockdown situation that's highly damaging to their image and economy and likely soon the world economy.

    The information we have so far is neither timely, accurate or comforting. But actions speak louder than words.

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 6:46am

    Grichal

    Grichal

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    Joined: Dec 22 2012

    Posts: 1

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    Olive Leaf extract as a natural anti-viral.

    Hi there I'm quite into herbal medicine. One natural anti-viral supplement that should be looked into is olive leaf extract. As far as I know there's quite a lot of scientific evidence to support it. You can buy it as a supplement. I have tried it when I've been ill, but it's hard to gauge how much of an effect it had. I have no idea whether it would have any effect on the corona virus, but from what I've read it has quite a wide spectrum of antiviral activity.

    Here's somethings on the internet I've come across about it.

    http://www.superfoods-scientific-research.com/natural-remedies/antiviral-effects-of-olive-leaf.html

    Olive Leaf extract has anti-viral, anti-bacterial and anti-fungal effects. Oleuropein and hydroxytyrosol are considered as main polyphenolic compounds in olive leaf. Oleuropein is converted into elenolic acid in the body which may prevent  bacteria and viruses  from replicating. Olive leaf extract has been shown to be effective against herpes, flu and colds, bacterial infections, vaginal yeast infections, malaria, and hepatitis. In 1969 scientists showed olive leaf constituents are strong in vitro inhibitors of numerous viruses, including parainfluenza, pseudorabies, herpes, and some forms of polio. Almost every virus tested, including several cold and influenza viruses, was inactivated when exposed to a constituent of olive leaf extracts (OLE), calcium elenolate. Olive leaf extract (Oleuropein) has been patented in the United States for antiviral activity against viral diseases, including hepatitis and herpes.

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 8:47am

    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

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    Joined: May 29 2011

    Posts: 16

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    re: nCoV and HIV

    Chris,

    Can you provide any of your updated thinking in light of the report that doctors in Thailand are, indeed, using an HIV treatment med to treat patients? In light of your very awesome explanation above, this also seems weird...

     

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 9:12am

    PokerBear

    PokerBear

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 03 2008

    Posts: 5

    Lots of bread crumbs...

    https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/‬

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 4:18pm

    Avalon5

    Avalon5

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 02 2020

    Posts: 1

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    Best Items to Buy

    You could buy a 25 pound bag of rice, 20 pounds of pinto beans or black beans, some sugar, maybe some peanut butter.  These items have a very long shelf life (particularly rice) and are quite inexpensive. Maybe a jug of water too? Hard to determine how things will unwind. Will PG&E even have workers willing to keep the power going? How about the water company?  Anyway, good luck to you.

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 9:49pm

    green_achers

    green_achers

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 03 2009

    Posts: 50

    Thank you

    I appreciate your responding to my post and am sorry I did not see it sooner. And yes, I can still remember enough of the general biology and bacteriology classes I had as an undergrad to understand about 90% of what you posted.

    I will be keeping an eye on this, also.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:57am

    El777

    El777

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 12

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    Which Olive Leaf Extract Supplement to get?

    I've been looking into olive leaf extract as well for additional immune support. But there are so many different companies selling this online it's really hard to know which ones are actually selling high quality stuff. Do you have any brand(s) or products you can recommend? TIA!

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