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The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

Tuesday, October 4, 2011, 11:43 AM
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The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Executive Summary

  • The dangers of depending on correlations
  • The dollar as 'anti-euro' argument 
  • Key support levels to watch
  • Cycles analysis of dollar prices
  • Keeping the limits of technical analysis in mind

Part I - Heresy and the U.S. Dollar

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II - The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

In Part I, I raised the potentially heretical possibility (at least to some) that the U.S. dollar, as reflected by the DXY dollar index, might be in a multi-year uptrend, and then endeavored to sort through the psychological underpinnings of resistance to this possibility.

Here in Part II, I will lay out the technical case for the DXY’s possible multiyear advance.

I would like to start by addressing correlations. Given our minds’ predilection for pattern-matching, it’s natural to see correlations between two slices of the market. For example, when the DXY rises, the stock market declines. This correlation invites speculation on reasons that would explain the correlation.

As the saying goes, correlation is not causation, and so while this line of speculation might illuminate some hidden causal dynamic in play, it also offers ample opportunity for distraction and misguided conclusions.

 

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