Category Archives: Market Update

  • News

    OMG, Omicron!

    Weekly Market Commentary 26 November 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, November 28, 2021, 7:03 PM

    24

    The price movements this week were entirely dominated by what happened on Friday. OMICRON! Let’s start with crude oil. Check out the $10 drop in the price of the master resource on the half-day of trading on Friday. It was a remarkable move. Crude is now in a reasonably strong downtrend. On Tuesday, there was…

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  • News

    Selling off Strategic Oil Reserves?

    Weekly Market Commentary 19 November 2021
    by davefairtex

    Monday, November 22, 2021, 10:36 AM

    15

    There were three economic series out this week: Retail Sales [+1.67% m/m, +14.03% y/y], Industrial Production [+1.61% m/m, +4.89% y/y], and Housing Starts [-0.66% m/m, +0.39% y/y]. The Retail Sales number hit an all time high – note much of that move is due to inflation; sales are up 24% over pre-pandemic levels. Even deflated…

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  • News

    Inflation Drives Metals Higher, Looking Forward to Humanity’s “Best Day Ever”

    Weekly Market Commentary 12 November 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, November 14, 2021, 4:50 PM

    117

    This week was about inflation; first the PPI (PPIACO) hit on Tuesday: headline +2.04% m/m [24% annualized!], and then the CPI (CPIAUCSL) landed on Wednesday: headline +0.94% m/m [11.28% annualized!] Both numbers were absurd, multi-decade highs. Hey so about that “transitory inflation” thing – how’s that working again? Inflation expectations still under control? Chair Powell…

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  • News

    Full Employment, All’s Fair in Love and War

    Weekly Market Commentary November 5 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, November 7, 2021, 7:42 PM

    23

    This week’s economic data: Payrolls: +531k headline, reasonably positive Auto/Light Truck Sales: +5.96% m/m, -26.3% y/y; heavy truck sales +9.025 m/m. Slight recovery. Wolf goes into more detail about the payrolls numbers. My summary: https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/05/jobs-data-shows-something-big-changed-in-this-monstrously-overstimulated-economy/ Consumer spending surpassed its pre-pandemic record in Q1 2021 Private investment in buildings, equipment, and the like started setting new…

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  • News

    Recession-flation, Anti-War Ballads

    Weekly Market Commentary 29 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 31, 2021, 4:00 PM

    21

    We saw some negative economic data this week: Auto/light truck sales: -6.8% m/m, -33.9% y/y. Auto sales continue to plunge. “Shortages”. The drop in auto sales is nothing short of spectacular: peak of 18m in early 2021, currently at 12m. GDP: +1.87% q/q, +8.78% y/y. That sounds good, but the expectation was for a vastly…

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  • News

    7-Year High in Crude, 30% Hit to GDP

    Weekly Market Commentary 22 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 24, 2021, 5:39 PM

    17

    This week was a reasonably good week for the metals. Here’s what the metals sector map looked like – most items are now back above the 9 and 50 MA lines. Gold/euros looks strongest – due to the MA50/MA200 crossing that happened a few months ago. While this week copper was at the bottom of…

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  • News

    Bad Payrolls & Rented Mules

    Weekly Market Commentary 8 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 10, 2021, 8:00 AM

    24

    Please note: there will not be a Weekly Market Commentary next week (15 October 2021) because Davefairtex will be on vacation. It was another bad payrolls report; headline +194k, with +475k expected. Friend-of-the-site Wolf Richter has a breakdown of this very complicated employment picture. People Not Looking for Work, Labor Force Drops. But Households Report…

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  • News

    COMEX Delivery Wednesday, Not Capable of Inducing Genetic Changes in Human Cells

    Weekly Market Commentary 1 October 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, October 3, 2021, 7:41 PM

    40

    Market Commentary Its hard to know where to focus right now – there is so much going on. First of all this was “COMEX PM delivery week”, specifically, Wednesday was the big delivery day. So guess what happened to silver on Wednesday? It got crapped on – and not by a little either. Silver plunged…

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  • News

    Taper Coming Soon, View from Other Side of the Hill

    Weekly Market Commentary 24 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 26, 2021, 7:44 PM

    20

    Market Commentary This was Fed Meeting Week – for those who have been distracted by “covid”, the Fed has been hinting about maybe-possibly-tapering their money-printing spree because, maybe, inflation is kinda-sorta starting to become a thing. Finally. To their great relief. Inflation! Yay!! Ok well sure, inflation sucks if you’re a wage-earner, or on a…

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  • News

    Dollar Rally Hurts PM, Monoclonal Antibodies for Everyone!

    Weekly Market Commentary 17 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 19, 2021, 7:37 AM

    34

    Market Commentary There were three major economic series released this week: Retail Sales [+0.71% m/m], Industrial Production [+0.40% m/m], and CPI [+0.27% m/m]. The CPI was just a bad joke; it is up +4.38% y/y, with PPIACO up +16.16%. Someone should complain to the Trusted News Initiative gang that the harmful disinformation coming from the…

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