Category Archives: Market Update

  • News

    Taper Coming Soon, View from Other Side of the Hill

    Weekly Market Commentary 24 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 26, 2021, 7:44 PM

    13

    Market Commentary This was Fed Meeting Week – for those who have been distracted by “covid”, the Fed has been hinting about maybe-possibly-tapering their money-printing spree because, maybe, inflation is kinda-sorta starting to become a thing. Finally. To their great relief. Inflation! Yay!! Ok well sure, inflation sucks if you’re a wage-earner, or on a…

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  • News

    Dollar Rally Hurts PM, Monoclonal Antibodies for Everyone!

    Weekly Market Commentary 17 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, September 19, 2021, 7:37 AM

    31

    Market Commentary There were three major economic series released this week: Retail Sales [+0.71% m/m], Industrial Production [+0.40% m/m], and CPI [+0.27% m/m]. The CPI was just a bad joke; it is up +4.38% y/y, with PPIACO up +16.16%. Someone should complain to the Trusted News Initiative gang that the harmful disinformation coming from the…

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  • News

    Bad Payrolls, Destroy the Village

    Weekly Market Update 3 September 2021
    by davefairtex

    Monday, September 6, 2021, 9:56 AM

    28

    Market Commentary Payrolls was the market mover this week – they came in a lot lower than expected [headline +235k], still perhaps 5M below pre-pandemic levels. Wolf Richter has a good article breaking down why things haven’t gone so well for payrolls. No, it’s not “delta”. As I’ve said before, if you pay people not…

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  • News

    Core PCE at 28-Year Highs & The Outcome They Wanted

    Weekly Market Update 27 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 29, 2021, 10:33 AM

    16

    Weekly Market Commentary The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, “Core PCE”, rose 0.3375% m/m [3.62% y/y] this month – the highest increase since the early 90s.   Powell’s speech (released at 10 am on Friday) was seen by the market as dovish, however, and that drove PM prices higher in response.  Even so, my sense is that…

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  • News

    The Impending Taper, and Boosters: A Strategic Blunder

    Weekly Market Update 20 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 22, 2021, 7:16 AM

    19

    Market Commentary This week we saw falling Retail Sales [-1.49% m/m] alongside a rising Industrial Production [+0.93% m/m]. Post-pandemic, Retail Sales had been supported both by rising prices, as well as lots of free money from the government, but this appears to be coming to an end, although in absolute terms it remains strong. INDPRO…

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  • News

    Strong Inflation, Weak Sentiment, Spikes for Everyone!

    Market Update 13 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 15, 2021, 12:27 PM

    57

    Commentary Producer prices (PPIACO) looked unpleasant for July; +1.18% m/m, +19.79% y/y. That’s the largest increase since 1973-74. But don’t worry; Powell tells us it is transitory. It was transitory back in the 70s too – but the “transition period” lasted about 8 years, resulting in prices jumping from PPIACO=40 to PPIACO=100. Now that’s the…

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  • News

    Dollar & Payrolls Bounce, Awash in Lies & Misinformation

    Weekly Market Update 6 August 2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, August 8, 2021, 4:52 PM

    16

    Market Commentary The buck erased most of last week’s losses [+0.66%], with the bulk of the gains coming on Friday, following a surprisingly strong Nonfarm Payrolls report [headline +943k +0.65%]. Might this be due to some of the Red states deciding to cease paying people to remain unemployed? The rise in payrolls doesn’t look all…

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  • News

    Dollar Slips while Everybody Talks Vax

    Weekly Market Update - 30 July 2021
    by davefairtex

    Saturday, July 31, 2021, 5:57 PM

    17

    Market Commentary To me the buck [-0.80%] had the most interesting move this week – it fell four days out of five, printing a weekly swing high/strong bearish reversal (70%).  Money flowed into bonds [-7 bp to 1.27%], and is starting to move out of equities – at least a little bit [-0.37%].  SPX sector…

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  • News

    Gold Down Despite Inflation Rising Like 1974

    Weekly Market Update - 7/23/2021
    by davefairtex

    Sunday, July 25, 2021, 8:03 PM

    22

    Market Update The metals are mostly in a downtrend, but there are hints of a reversal in silver. The silver Open Interest is showing signs of the “wash and rinse” cycle ending – silver’s OI hasn’t been this low since mid-2020. Silver’s (single candle) reversal bar looks reasonably strong. Silver’s friend copper is more clearly…

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