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    Living On Borrowed Time

    How soon until the consequences of our excesses catch up with us?
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, December 6, 2019, 3:21 PM

The laws of physics are governed by cause and effect. But there can exist a time lag between the two.

For instance:

Note how the speed of both the bullet and the retracting latex far exceed that of the shockwave or gravity on the water contained inside each balloon.

There’s an observable time lag during which the globe of previously-contained water momentarily hangs there in space.

Then, a beat later, it’s obliterated.

Living On Borrowed Time

I’m unusually focused on time these days as we’re updating Peak Prosperity’s crown jewel, The Crash Course video series.

Originally created in 2008 and updated in 2014, it lays out the macro forces driving the economy and our way of living, explaining why most of them are unsustainable and headed for trouble. That then opens the door to an avalanche of critical questioning about what the future will bring.

Updating the parade of charts and data has been eye-opening for me. When I last did this (early 2014), the S&P had just returned to the same price level that served as the apex for both the 2001 and 2008 market bubbles.

I remember how concerned I was then. How could we have returned to such reckless exuberance so quickly after the pain caused by the Dot-com bust and the Great Financial Crisis? Did we learn nothing from our previous (and recent!) excess?

Clearly not only did we not learn; we didn’t give a crap. With a “hold my beer, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet” bravado, we proceeded to DOUBLE the S&P above the previous bubble highs.

Here at PeakProsperity.com, my co-founder Chris Martenson and I have spilled a lot of ink in the ensuing years, warning how QE (aka central bank money printing), stock buybacks, and record low interest rates have pushed the degree of systemic unsustainability to Bizzaro-world levels. For our most recent analysis, click here, here and here.

But the TL;DR version is succinctly captured by the chart below:

S&P dispersion chart

Source: Hussman Funds

A few important things to note beyond the colorful editorial commentary I added to John Hussman’s quality work here.

First, the chart is logarithmic. The y-axis value doubles with each hashmark. Meaning: the current excess is a lot more extreme than it looks at first glance.

Second, the vertical lines indicate ‘dispersions’ which are market conditions Hussman finds are highly-correlated with “steep and rather abrupt market plunges, often representing the first leg of a more extended collapse”.

Notice how rarely they have occured over the past 25 years, and yet they’ve suddenly increased in frequency of late (the most recent took place on Nov 20th).

This is what you would expect to see from a dangerously over-extended system, where prices have been propelled way beyond where they can be sustainably supported. Keep in mind, today’s all-time high prices are occuring at a time when:

As we covered in a recent report The Phantom Mania, there’s simply no substance underlying this latest run in stocks. It’s all been driven by multiple expansion, which is a fancy term for “paying more for the same dollar of earnings”, aka, speculating that you’ll be able to sell at a higher price to an even greater fool:

Global GDP vs Equities chart

What we are experiencing right now is a ‘time lag’ between the collapse of the argument underlying the 10-year bull market and investors’ recognition of that.

A full decade and some $14 Trillion in newly-printed money later, plus the cheapest interest rates in recorded history, and yet the central banks have not been able to restore growth to the global economy. The experiment has failed.

And what do we have to show for it?

The worst wealth gap in history. An impoverishment of future generations, who will be stuck paying off our recent debt orgy:

What good is Dow 30,000 if 75% of us can’t afford a house or scrape together $400 in an emergency?

Time Is Running Out

And of course, that’s just what’s going on in funny-money land.

In the real world, the resources we rely on to power the economy, sustain our modern lifestyle, and put food into our bellies are rapidly becoming more scarce and expensive.

Energy & Minerals

The world remains extremely dependent on fossil fuels and demands more every year. Yet discoveries peaked many decades ago and our reserve replacement rates are now negative:

As explained in this excellent podcast with petroleum geologist Art Berman, this supply/demand imbalance will predictably escalate throughout our lifetime. And a ‘smooth’ transition to other energy sources is mathematically impossible at this point. Sustained supply constraints and higher prices are inevitable.

Similarly, many of the most important ores and minerals necessary for economic development are in even worse decline:

Visual Capitalist resource depletion timeline

Source: Visual Capitalist, US Geological Survey

The Biosphere

As a consequence of human industry’s ever-increasing need to consume and the pollution that results, life on the planet is dying off at an unprecedented rate (short of a giant meteorite extinction-level event).

World animal populations are dropping at an alarming pace:

extinction statistics

Source: World Wildlife Fund Living Planet Report

As are insects:

Insect loss chart

Source: Statista

As are aquifers and forests:

Word aquifers

Source: Drovers

deforestation stats

Source: climatepro

Ourselves

The above statistics clearly show that we are dismantling the underpinnings of the ecosystems we depend on to live. Thus, we have become an existential threat to ourselves.

So should it comes as any surprise that we’re already seeing a diminishment of our health? And even of our ability to self-perpetuate?

US mortality rate by state

Source: JAMA

Yes, our lives today still run largely as we’ve always been used to. But given the data above, how long (or brief) will the remaining time lag be before the ramifications begin to hit us at force?

Time To Get Busy

I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really: Get busy living or get busy dying.

So concluded Andy Dufresne in The Shawshank Redemption. And at this stage in the story, the decision is really that binary.

Society for its part is committed to the “busy dying” path. It’s still clutching tightly to Business As Usual. Like an alcoholic who has yet to admit to himself he has a drinking problem, it won’t address what it refuses to recognize.

So we can expect the status quo of consume-and-pollute to continue on for some time. Most likely it will be pursued until it simply proves too painful than the remaining alternatives. By which time our other options are likely to be materially worse than they are today. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that conscientious, critically-thinking individuals like you can choose to get busy living.

There is much you can do during this time lag to invest in resilience and install regenerative models before the next systemic crisis is upon us.

Whatever time we have left, and it may very not be much, is a gift. Use it.

Many of the best defenses — like fitness, community, and valuable skills — require time to acquire. You can’t simply buy them off the shelf the way you can, say, a water filter or a backup generator. Once time has run out, you either already have them in place or you don’t.

In Part 2: How Best To Use The Time Remaining we provide our advice for prioritizing and allocating your precious time capital, as well as share with you what and Chris and I are most focused on in own personal preparations.

Included along with this are several hours of excellent video clips of experts from our recent educational live events and webinars, available to-date only to premium subscribers.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

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72 Comments

  • Fri, Dec 06, 2019 - 4:35pm

    #1

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 610

    2+

    Deleted

    I deleted this because it wasn't on topic and would possibly detract from the discussion.

    Les

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  • Fri, Dec 06, 2019 - 4:49pm

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4302

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    Pick Your Poison

    Geez, Les. I really thought I covered all of the bases in this one.

    Markets
    Energy
    Minerals
    Animals
    Insects
    Trees
    Aquifers
    Human mortality rate
    Dropping sperm counts

    As far as I'm concerned, any of these is a valid existential threat to hang your concerns on.

    Sadly, we can each pick a poison and still leave plenty more remaining on the bar top...

     

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  • Fri, Dec 06, 2019 - 8:48pm

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 610

    6+

    It’s just me

    I just feel for our fellow creatures, when they get marginalized.

    Last winter, the Arizona DNR shot a mountain lion, because it was harvesting mountain sheep that the DNR was protecting.  I did the math on that one.

    No one blamed the DNR for shooting one of the cats, despite the fact that there are, as I recall, 20,000 or so of them in the entire US.  To have a similar percentage impact on the humans in the US, the DNR would have had to kill 135,000 humans.  Had they done that, I think there would have been more blowback.

    As you say.  We each have different things that bother us.

    Excellent article, as usual.

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  • Fri, Dec 06, 2019 - 9:03pm

    #4

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 610

    You mentioned insects

    In Central Wisconsin, there aren’t enough wild bees left to pollinate crops.  Farmers, including the mega farms, in the area now place bee hives around their crops every spring.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 6:22am

    #5

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2294

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    Use of Environmental Degradation to Consolidate Oligarchic Power

    An idea, often discussed here on PP, is that

    1)  the terrible degradation of our natural world is both real and heart breaking, AND,

    2) is the excuse being used by the oligarchy to further sell the consolidation of economic and political control.

    Our favorite ORANGE-Meme-would-be rulers use this GREEN Meme reasoning to sell their world domination structures to a kind-hearted GREEN Meme population.

    Pepe Escobar endorses this understanding on his facebook page.  He points us to an Essay at GlobaResearch by William Engdahl.

    Climate And The Money Trail

     

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 7:43am

    #6

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 881

    11+

    Living on borrowed time/falling off the cliff

    How appropriate for me. I have now confirmed stage four small cell lung cancer; I will not be fighting it -- I have less than three months, I think (after which I won't be posting).

    My family has almost no assets -- so I pulled my PMs at loss; am moving them to where there's a support structure.  I am trying to get them from want driven (high family destruction rate) to duty driven (lower rate).

    We had already been heavily looted by others, want driven, in the community.

    The permaculture, the resilience, was nice to know, but I wonder how much will apply in the end.

     

    I agree that we are already in free fall, and are likely to see more of this in the next two hundred years.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 7:52am

    #7
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2014

    Posts: 534

    Pick on from column A and one from column B

    One of them is going to get us. Question is: How many and how fast.

    http://outbreaknewstoday.com/typhoid-fever-taiwan-reports-1st-imported-xdr-typhoid-in-traveler-to-pakistan-56929/

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 7:53am

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4302

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    Heartbreaking

    This is just heartbreaking to hear, Michael.

    You sound quite resigned. Are you being told there's no hope, medically?

    Know that this community grieves for you and with you. Speaking for myself, I value your contribution to this site and will miss your voice. You and your family have my deepest sympathies.

    Please prioritize your needs and family duties with the time you have remaining. Though if keeping engaged here helps, keep posting -- whatever feels most therapeutic to share. We'll listen with open hearts.

    A

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 8:17am

    #9

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Posts: 2294

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    Very Sorry Michael

    That is very sad and stunning news.  We will be thinking of you and caring about how your life goes.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 8:31am

    #10
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5112

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    Sorry to hear the news Micheal

    Michael, this is just shocking news.  You've been such a valuable member of our tribe over the years.  Please let us know if there's anything we can do on our end.

    I fully understand your desire to not fight this with the tools of modern medicine, preferring to have quality of life over quantity.  I get it.

    If I were in your place I'd be giving a 60 day exposure to Rick Simpson oil a chance (a cannabis concentrate).  It offers both a chance at arresting (if not shrinking) tumors and is excellent at pain management offering a much higher quality of engaged end-of-life moments (as compared to opiates, etc).

    I've done extensive research into this area and have personally known people who have successfully used the oil to treat cancer and its symptoms.

    Of course, this is just the opinion of one person on the internet, not medical advice, nor any sort of urging that you should or should not do any particular thing.  Just what I'd be looking into were I in your place.

    Feel free to PM me for more information...I've got tons of links, books, etc., on the subject.  Here's one such investigation from the NIH:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6385325/

    Again, so sorry to hear this news.

    Regards,
    Chris M.

     

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 8:48am

    TLWA1879

    TLWA1879

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2017

    Posts: 18

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    ...it might could be...

    ...or, its that the PR departments of those organizations recognize they need to pay lip service to this existential threat.  or, someone in a leadership position in those organizations actually recognize that there IS an existential threat.

    So, what's the conclusion?  Rally against the green new deal?  Rally against celebrities or others taking a lead in the cause to fight climate or environmental degradation?  Make the decision that climate change is a hoax created by china, or oligarchs that want to take control of the world via climate action? btw, I'm not asking these questions to sand puppy in particular and I'm not being snarky in my response, I'm just wondering where our community takes this idea.

    I recently read the book "The politically incorrect guide to climate change" by Marc Morano to help balance my knowledge of the topic of climate change and to seek real evidence that might counter the main stream understanding of climate change.  Its a long read (in my case, 11.5 hours of listening) that builds a case against climate change based not on data, but on circumstantial evidence that the climate cause is a power grab by liberal elites and similar theories to the one posted by Pepe Escobar.  The point is that this seems to be a common ploy to sow doubt about climate change.

    Side Note: Marc Morano (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Morano) worked for Senator Jim Inhofe, a staunch "climate denier" (I know some are offended by that term) and who I understand is the recipient of lots of campaign contributions from the Koch brothers.  I sought out this book as the best resource available to attempt to balance my views on the climate topic since I'm actively building resilience as if there is an existential threat due to climate.  I truly wanted to better understand the case against climate change.  I didn't find any data, e.g. peer reviewed, sound, scientific practices, no "data" of any kind other than a few instances of cherry picked data sets that show no warming, or even cooling (of which have been debunked). No point here...just fyi.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 9:00am

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 881

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    It isn't just quality of life

    There is an underlying spiritual situation that really requires me to accept my death warrant.

    As confirmation, everything else points -- and was pointing -- to this being when and where.

    Just a thought: as deaths accelerate, accepting your own is a lot less evil than transferring it, even a little, to others.   We all die.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 11:00am

    richcabot

    richcabot

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 232

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    Harder for those around us

    My mother suffered from congestive heart failure.  She had an extended period of mentally living in the past.  During her last hospital stay she kept repeating something none of us could understand.  When she got home she experienced a short period of complete clarity (and temporal accuracy).  She insisted that I pray with her and she prayed that God would let her die.  I realized then that it's what she had been saying all through her time in the hospital.  It was painful to realize I had been keeping her alive when she no longer wanted to be.   I informed her doctor and when she had a downturn a few months later the hospital only gave her palliative care and released hre back home.  It took a few weeks for her to pass away.  It was hard to watch, but her faith was strong and she had no fear.  I realized that death is often the hardest on the people around those who die.

    I'm sorry to read about your illness.  I trust that your faith will comfort you like my mother's comforted her.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 11:01am

    Matt Holbert

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 03 2008

    Posts: 96

    2+

    Engdahl doesn't give mankind the blame/credit that it deserves...

    something the sun and its energy have orders of magnitude more to do with than mankind ever could

    My question for Engdahl: How many of the catastrophes depicted in Adam's article are the result of the sun? How many are the result of mankind? The answer makes me think that man is not very kind -- nor very bright.

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 12:28pm

    #15
    MKI

    MKI

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 147

    Lots to think about...

    ...petroleum engineer Art Berman

    Not to nitpick, but Art is a petroleum geologist, not a petroleum engineer. Different skill set and approach, trust me. [Adam's edit: Great catch. You're right. I've corrected Art's title in the original post above.]

    ...fitness, community, and skills require time to acquire.

    A truism; many years, even a lifetime.

    Markets/Energy/Minerals/Animals/Insects/Trees/Aquifers/Human mortality rate/Dropping sperm counts...

    Didn't you forget some popular doomer issues like "Climate Change", "Historic Immigration", "Overpopulation", "Civil War", "Soil Depletion"? Myself, I think the health/nutrition/processed food concerns you posted about earlier deserve more attention (Joan Ifland has done some fine work here).

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 2:48pm

    #16

    northsheep

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 06 2009

    Posts: 3

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    emerging markets downturn as tipping point

    https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/159-the-perils-of-equilibria/

    The economist who authored the above post writes with an awareness of declining net energy, although he measures it differently from the EROEI of most energy descent writers.

    His prognosis may interest readers. In sum:

    Emerging industrial economies have propped up the global economy as older industrial economies decline, and falsely propped up trust in global economic growth.
    Emerging economies have now peaked and are starting to decline as measured by declining growth.
    This will eventually erode general trust in growth, and in combination with the global debt bubble trigger a permanent cascading collapse in markets and the global economy.

    What do you think Chris, Adam?

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 6:19pm

    robdes

    robdes

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 14 2016

    Posts: 1

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    Check out Joe Tippens story, Link below

    I ran across this guy recently and you have nothing to lose by trying this guys protocol. Check out Joe Tippen's story.

    https://www.mycancerstory.rocks/single-post/2016/08/22/Shake-up-your-life-how-to-change-your-own-perspective

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  • Sat, Dec 07, 2019 - 8:26pm

    Belmontl

    Belmontl

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 23 2009

    Posts: 36

    1+

    Helping

    a hundred thousand blessings brother Michael- 

    please do not hesitate to ask how any of us can help you or your family.

    this is one of the single best comprehensive resources to cancer

    https://www.optimize.me/cancer/

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  • Sun, Dec 08, 2019 - 6:40am

    ckessel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2008

    Posts: 176

    5+

    Borrowed Time

    I'm very sorry to hear the news Michael. It really brings home some thoughts I have about  humanity in general which is we are all on 'borrowed time' these days.

    Our thoughts are with you and your family.

    Coop

     

     

     

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  • Sun, Dec 08, 2019 - 7:32am

    Pipyman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 94

    4+

    Thanks for sharing...

    Really helps put things in perspective. Sending you my heart; for what it’s worth.

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  • Sun, Dec 08, 2019 - 8:56am

    #21

    000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 60

    2+

    A Special Announcement

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  • Sun, Dec 08, 2019 - 1:55pm

    #22

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 881

    8+

    Thank you, Robdes

    The cheapness and availability of what you posted -- if it doesn't work, how is it different from what I was going to do? If it does, then I can better fulfill my commissions.

    So I will be trying it.  Starting today.

    Thank you yo the rest of you, too.

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  • Mon, Dec 09, 2019 - 9:01am

    Atreat

    Atreat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 04 2011

    Posts: 13

    Healing code

    Michael,

    I'm truly sorry.  This is something I've run across in case you're interested in such things.  Quite a compelling from my perspective. perhaps worth a try,

    https://www.amazon.com/Healing-Code-Minutes-Success-Relationship/dp/1455502014/ref=asc_df_1455502014/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=312089933244&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=762486557757734013&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9059134&hvtargid=pla-624135819007&psc=1

     

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  • Tue, Dec 10, 2019 - 8:04am

    #24

    SingleSpeak

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Nov 30 2008

    Posts: 175

    11+

    Dichotomy

    To be taken from the failings and challenges of our world that Adam had presented above to the eminent end of one 's life as presented in Michael's post was mind-blowing.

    If we all knew when we were going to die, or as I like to think, transform to the next stage of our existence, we would have a crucial piece of information to base our decisions on, and the best time to execute critical decisions. I imagine it would be a blessing in disguise. (no disrespect intended)

    If time becomes critically short, as it looks for Michael, then making sure the kids and grand-kids are aware and somewhat prepared for the next 20 to 40 years would take on a new urgency.

    The planning that the PP community is noted for, would take on a different perspective. I know we're creating a "world worth inheriting", but the bottom line that we're shooting for is to live each day to the fullest.

    Chris and Adam remind us of this continually by stressing 8 forms of capital. not "the one" that our society focuses on relentlessly. I'll thank you guys again, since you deserve it and no one gets tired of hearing those two words.

    I also wish to take the opportunity to thank Michael for years of adding to the conversation here. I respect how you are dealing with your illness, and I hope I'd be half as clear and present if ever faced with your situation.

    SS

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  • Tue, Dec 10, 2019 - 11:23am

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 608

    7+

    Michael

    You'll be missed around here, as many have pointed out. Viya con dios, fellow member of our community, and may your passing lead you to interesting new adventures. It is heartening to see you focus on others, even at this hour.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 5:44am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2039

    9+

    underlying spiritual situation

    MR-

    There is an underlying spiritual situation that really requires me to accept my death warrant.

    Your situation reminds me of my Mom.  She too had cancer.  I remember sitting down with her at the early stages, before things became more difficult, and I asked her this key question: "Mom, do you want to be here?"  I thought this was a formality, so I could proceed to the next step of healing, etc.

    Well, turns out, it wasn't a formality.  She was silent - she did not reply.  I was speechless.  She didn't want to be here any longer. I finally said, "well there really isn't much I can do then."  She was gone three months later.

    In my healing classes the teacher always told us that some people don't want to be healed.  I duly noted that detail, and thought this was some box I'd check to follow the protocol but I'd never run into.  Except it happened with my own mom!  Not a theoretical box at all.

    Oh, Mom accepted all the medical help and whatnot, to please the people around her that wanted her to stay, but her heart wasn't in it.  From what I understand, people have a vote - a really effective vote - in how these sorts of things turn out, and her heart was voting against all of it.  I knew this, and so I didn't force anything on her to try and keep her around.

    So given that you've checked the same box she did, I'm going to second the whole cannabis thing.  We used Cheeba Chews for pain.  They seemed to work great.  She seemed to be in a mostly-aware, happy state right up until the end.  The hospice nurse was amazed.  All her other patients at that point were knocked out on morphine.

    Anyhow.  Best of luck on your journey MR and - may you depart your body surrounded by your favorite people.  As my Mom did.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 6:44am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5112

    2+

    Incredible Healing Story

    I ran across this guy recently and you have nothing to lose by trying this guys protocol. Check out Joe Tippen’s story.

    https://www.mycancerstory.rocks/single-post/2016/08/22/Shake-up-your-life-how-to-change-your-own-perspective

    Wow!

    What a story.   Seems quite believable.  I'd for sure be giving it a shot, and maybe someday I will, who knows?

    Thanks for finding and posting.  That's a keeper.

    Michael - I am very relieved to hear that you will be giving this a try.  Seems well worth the effort.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 7:09am

    #28
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 201

    2+

    an MD who gets it

    Bernie has a lot of critics but he understands.  His video "Fight for your Life" is available on amazon for about 10 dollars.  This video has been watched in my household probably 10 times for someone who has been ill and it has been a consolation and inspiration. My heart goes out to you Mike and like others here I respect your decision/awareness.   I wish you peace and am sorry for your news.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HGI4h8mFJA

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 10:54am

    #29
    Geedard

    Geedard

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    Joined: Oct 13 2014

    Posts: 63

    4+

    Michael

    Your message numbed me Michael, I can only imagine the feelings of those closer to you.

    Similar to Dave Fairtex, while reading your message I instantly transported back to the passing of my own mum many years ago...your attitude is inspiring and thought provoking.

    Thank you Michael, you and your thoughts have made a difference to me many times and continue to do so. Thinking of you and wishing you calm.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 11:35am

    #30
    karenf

    karenf

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2010

    Posts: 56

    3+

    25 years ago

    I was diagnosed with 3b (out of 4 stages) Hodgkins Lymphoma.  I had a bulky tumor the size of half my chest cavity.  A friend gave me Bernie Siegel's first book Love, Medicine and Miracles and it opened my eyes. He was a brave man to write that book because it was kind of the beginning of the mind body connections movement.  I doesn't surprise me at all to hear he is controversial.  Everyone outside the Overton Window is.

    Michael all the best to you.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 11:42am

    #31

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Posts: 4302

    8+

    Probability of death by...

    I saw this today and thought it a helpful visual for reminding us, as individuals, which life threats to prioritize keeping our eyes on:

    via Gfycat

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 1:08pm

    davefairtex

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    terrorism

    I'm kinda wondering where the "terrorism" deaths are in that chart.

    (Actually, I'm not wondering at all.  America is fantastic at spending money on threats that don't make it onto charts like this)

    But I digress.  I like Adam's chart a lot.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 2:43pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 189

    (where is terrorism on this chart of causes of death)

    Dave, terrorism is between dogs and snakes in this chart.  We do spend much money on dogs (chain link fences and leashes etc.), but not much on snakes.  I think that the discretionary spending is on entertainment whereas the forced spending (on fascism) is based on fear.  Maybe the Psychology Scientists can solve this behavioral problem.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 2:52pm

    Adam Taggart

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    Dogs and Snakes

    Actually, 'terrorism' is in the chart....right between 'dogs' and 'snakes'

    But its magnitude proves your point. Ever-present media scaremongering and (hundreds of?) $billions spent each year to 'protect' us from the fear of something quite rare:

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 3:00pm

    #35

    Boomer41

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 125

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    Since 'Terrorism' falls between 'Dogs' and 'Snakes'...

    ...that makes 'Terrorism' a mighty unlikely cause of death. Despite which, we are forced to submit to demeaning and unconstitutional searches every time we travel by air. Between the actual cost of the TSA and the gigantic waste of otherwise productive time caused by the TSA ritual humiliation procedure, 'protecting' us from terrorists is costing our nation an enormous amount.

    If the TSA could point to any success at all in preventing terrorist attacks it might be justifiable, but so far they have not. Worst of all, TSA screening appears to be ineffective. DHS agents posing as terrorists, were able to smuggle 95% of simulated explosives and other weapons aboard aircraft. https://www.vox.com/2016/5/17/11687014/tsa-against-airport-security.

    Personally, I believe the TSA inspections are more about conditioning the public to routine government invasion of privacy than they are about protecting us from anything.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 3:06pm

    Adam Taggart

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    Sharks

    Interestingly, my one major phobia is sharks -- the lowest likelihood risk in the data series.

    Shark attack is the only regularly recurring nightmare I have.

    It should comfort me that it's literally so low-probability I shouldn't waste a neuron thinking about it. But that's not how the human brain (at least, this human's) is wired.

    I can't help it. The fear is primal; hence I think about it way more than is logical.

    Which is a big reason I enjoy the field of behavioral economics. We humans make hugely irrational decisions regarding money largely because, evolutionarily, we are wired for the fight-or-flight threats to life our ancestors faced in the jungle.

    We're generally quite poor at estimating probability and risk in the more complex modern age. Hence the illogical reason why I expend way more brain power worrying about sharks than a heart attack.

    He (or she) who can master his (or her) amygdala has a huge advantage in life. I'm trying my best...

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 4:25pm

    #37

    sand_puppy

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    And bicycles!!

    Nobody is terrified of bicycles and parents often gift these deadly devices to their children!!  From the cdc.

    Deaths and Injuries
    In 2015 in the United States, over 1,000 bicyclists died and there were almost 467,000 bicycle-related injuries.3

    Picture:  An American family unknowingly flirting with death.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 4:48pm

    #38

    sand_puppy

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    Posts: 2294

    3+

    Venn Diagram of Point in History (humor)

    One commenter:  "Where is Mad Max.  I think we are missing a section."

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 4:57pm

    #39

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2294

    Zoltan's Market Repo Market Prediction

    In the aftermath of Zoltan Pozsar's stunning "doomsday" report about an upcoming crisis in the repo market, which we discussed extensively yesterday, and which predicted that the Fed may "lose control of overnight rates" leading to a vicious dislocation in repos coupled with a paralysis in the FX swap market, many traders who (pretend to) understand the implications of what the former Fed strategist said, have quietly hunkered down and are looking carefully for sings that Pozsar is correct, a worst case scenario that could then lead to a spike in Treasury yields, a forced deleveraging of hedge funds, and a plunge in equities. In short: a stock market apocalypse.

    Can't say I understand this aspect of banking.  But it sounds like it could be dramatic.

    To those of us limping along waiting for the grey swan, these kinds of things can catch the attention.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 5:19pm

    #40
    MKI

    MKI

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    Irrational decisions vs rational decisions

    We humans make hugely irrational decisions regarding money largely because, evolutionarily, we are wired for the fight-or-flight threats.

    This comment is very astute, and I tend to forget it. But not just true for money. Common rational threats we tend to ignore today? Health (processed food/lack of wights-cardio); family breakup (divorce/emotional trauma); driving risk (accidents, plus not walking anymore); TV-media (depression/lack of social activity); hospitals-medical care risk (unneeded drug or surgery risk/infectious disease risk/debt risk), etc. Yet few of us focus on preparing for these common and serious threats. Myself, I prefer to focus on economic collapse for some reason, and the only antidote I've found to this (somewhat irrational) fear is to keep 10% NW in physical PM (which protects against rational fears too!).

    Another thing I've noticed about irrational fears versus rational ones? Preparing for irrational fears rarely add value to my current life (it's more like insurance I hope to never use), yet responding to rational fears tend to make my everyday life better. It's not about avoiding death or illness, but more about having a higher quality of life now.

    Life choices addressing the above "rational" threats head-on (especially threats to group unity) yet costing nothing (even saving money) can include: family meals w/zero processed & high-nutrients; walking/biking to work; replacing TV with free weights and a social life or reading; regular confession (free shrink/moral unity). YMMV.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 6:12pm

    ao

    ao

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    it's wired in

    I can identify with your fear Adam.  I recall a time in the summer when I was swimming in Lake Superior.  I'll typically swim out about 100 yards offshore and then swim parallel to the shoreline using sand ripples as lane markers (because I dive for golf balls that people hit out there in about 10 feet of water).  I was swimming one day and all over a sudden, a large dark shadow suddenly appeared beneath me.  My initial instinctive reaction of the "Holy sh*t!" type and I experienced that jolt of adrenalin release that surges through your whole body like an electric shock.  All this happened in milliseconds.  In another second or two, I recognized that this large dark shadow was ... ME!  I was indeed frightened by my own shadow, lol.  I had a good laugh about that one.  The sun had popped out and my shadow suddenly appeared and my fear reaction was instantaneous.  Never mind that the logical mind would know that in Lake Superior, there's no large critter that would bite or eat you.  That response was wired in.

    Another time, I had waded across a river and then was walking through a swampy grassy area to get to a favorite fishing hole.  Suddenly, the ground shifted beneath me ... or at least seemed to.  It's the perception you get when a snake suddenly begins to move and breaks its camouflage with the ground.  I instantly leaped sideways and backward several feet, a purely instinctive reaction.  In another second or two, I realized what I had responded to.  The ground moving was actually a number of well camouflaged baby pheasant chicks who had started to move as I was about to step in their midst.  I had a good laugh about that one as well.

     

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 6:14pm

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

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    Posts: 334

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    t-shirt idea for going through security

    I wonder what the impact would be if someone created a t-shirt that highlighted the near-zero terrorism risk and sold it so people could wear it while passing through TSA security checkpoints.  It would be good to point out that most terrorism deaths are not airplane related.

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  • Wed, Dec 11, 2019 - 11:47pm

    thatchmo

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    Posts: 194

    3+

    Step over here, please....

    That's a great idea, qb, but, uh, better get to the airport REALLY early.....Aloha, Steve.

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 8:08am

    #44

    sand_puppy

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    The Saker Thinks 2020 brings the "Perfect Storm" of Converging Crises. The Right Agrees

    The Saker's year end post is worrisome.

    Excerpts

    My friends, I am sorry to say that I think the next year will probably be a perfect storm!

    In the USA the next Presidential election will most likely be a disaster.  The Dems are dead set to use any and all lies and tricks to try to remove Trump, while the GOP hopes that by selling out to Israel it will remain in power.
    The US is tanking on so many levels that I will only mention a few crucial ones: politically, socially, economically and militarily.  The Trump-disaster has shown beyond doubt that this is not about personalities or who gets to sit in the White House.  It is about a system which is profoundly 1) corrupt 2) dysfunctional and 3) unreformable.  From now on it’s all “down” for the USA.  I love this country and many of its people (even while I hate its ruling elites) and I take no pleasure is observing this.  In fact, I would argue that folks like myself and many, many others (I think of Dmitry OrlovRon Unz or Andrei Martyanov) have truly done all we can to avoid that outcome, but we were too few and too isolated.  Now it is too late.
    The EU is in absolutely TERRIBLE shape.  Frankly, the Europeans deserve a lot of that pain because instead of defending their own national interests, they preferred prostituting themselves to the United States and the AngloZionist Empire.  Now the the chickens have come to roost.....

    The bottom line is simple: the Empire is dying and this puts the entire planet at risk of war.

    Do not worry too much about Russia: she is fine ready for everything and anything the Empire might throw at her.   [T]he hyper-cautious, some would say “flaccid”, policies of Putin towards the endless stream of sanctions and provocations by the West has given Russia the time she needed to prepare....

    Translation: we are waiting for your nuclear attack

    The “show” is also over for the puppet President in the Ukraine and for his neo-Nazi masters (see here for a discussion).

    Latin America is in deep turmoil.  Uncle Shmuel has successfully ousted the legitimate leaders of Brazil and Bolivia....

    As for Africa, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent – they are all under various degrees of crises.

    I believe that next year a major political crisis in the USA is inevitable.  Furthermore, both Europe and the Ukraine are on the brink of major political and economic problems.  And, finally, there is, in my opinion, a real possibility for a large scale war involving the USA and Israel: a war they will inevitably lose, thus creating a huge risk of nuclear strikes (at least in the Middle East).

    Prepare for a major crisis

    Make sure that most of your money is not in any bank (get small silver or gold coins; ammunition and medicines will also become currencies if things get really ugly), prepare emergency food rations.  Stock up on weapons (handguns and/or rifles) and the needed ammo if you can.

    If possibly, try to locate/organize some place you can go and remain for a month or so (no less!).

    The worst places to be in case of a severe crisis are 1) big cities 2) isolated rural cabins/homes.  I know that some survivalists advocate the “bug out” option, but in reality, unless you are in a group and well-armed, I consider this a dangerous option. The safest place is to be in a community, preferably a small town, where you have friends and you know and trust your neighbors.

    Second, assuming that we don’t have a full-scale war or major social violence, prepare for economic hardship: even if you keep your job, your income will likely go down.  If you are self-employed, make sure to stock on whatever goods you need to provide your services. If you work for somebody else, prepare a “plan B” in case you get laid-off.

    I am not an economist, so take that with this caveat in mind, but all my contacts in venture capital firms and traders all tell me that the US and EU economy are so enmeshed that if one collapses, so will the other.

    -----
    Matt Bracken, Aesop, The Woodpile, T.L Davis and a slate of conservative writers think that the gun confiscation show down in Virginia is where TSHF.  This is combined with Impeachment.
    One last thought from a PP member of Scottish heritage.
    "keep a sword in the house and one in the thatch."

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 8:28am

    #45

    Adam Taggart

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    US/China trade deal 'close' timeline: updated

    [Now updated to December...]

     

    Fool us once, shame on you.

    Fool us twice, shame on us.

    Fool us daily for a year.....what the hell is wrong with us???

     

    January

    February

    March

    April

    May

    June

    July

    August

    September

    October

    November

    December

     

    Just keep believin'........

     

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 1:54pm

    #46

    sand_puppy

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    Sh*t is about to get real in Virginia

    Matt Bracken and Daisy Luther both see such potential for conflict over gun ownership in Virginia that they are sounding the alarm.

    More than 80 counties in Virginia have declared themselves Second Amendment Sanctuaries and lawmakers are ready to bring in the National Guard if the new laws pass.

     

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 2:03pm

    #47

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status: Gold Member

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    Posts: 881

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    Antihelminthic safety

    Just a thought: from when we were in Lithuania, I became aware of mebendazole and its safety -- and its putative anti-cancer properties.

    So Fenbendazole is also pretty safe -- but don't take it with a salicylamide pain killer -- the two can react to make something toxic.

    When you're self treating, there will be risks you aren't aware of. I'd keep it simple.

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 6:56pm

    #48

    Boomer41

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 125

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    Gun Control in Virginia

    A recent study shows that there are now  an estimated  393 million guns in the hands of Americans. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/there-are-more-guns-than-people-in-the-united-states-according-to-a-new-study-of-global-firearm-ownership/  including 3.5 million legally owned machine guns and ‘destructive devices’. This works out to 1.2 guns for every person in the country. It should be obvious to all but the most stupid or oblivious that with nearly four hundred million guns in American hands the percentage which are used in criminal acts is vanishingly small. Guns are not a problem. Crazy people and criminals are a problem. Anyone who claims otherwise has an ulterior motive.

    BATFE figures also show that in 2018, 8.1 billion rounds of ammunition were produced by the firearms industry. Most of it presumably fired on gun ranges by Americans practicing their skills, or stashed away for future use.

    The most popular firearm in the country is the semi-automatic modern sporting rifle (MSR), often mis-identified as an “assault rifle”, the AR-15 being the most popular model. The BATF calculates that there are now 17.7 million of them in private hands, a record high, and more than half (54%) of all rifles produced in 2017 were modern sporting rifles. This is precisely the rifle that Biden, Bloomberg, the Virginia State Legislature et. al propose to take away from us.

    However, there are only 687,000 full time law enforcement officers in the US https://www.statista.com/statistics/191694/number-of-law-enforcement-officers-in-the-us/  who could be used to enforce a gun confiscation scheme. Of course, many LEOs, because of their oath to defend the Constitution, would refuse orders to disarm fellow citizens, as evidenced by the sanctuary cities movement.

    In other words, law abiding citizen gun owners outnumber those who could be tasked with taking away our guns by at the very least 100:1  Those are impossible odds. All we have to do is simply say “No”.

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  • Thu, Dec 12, 2019 - 7:30pm

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

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    Posts: 675

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    Deputize Everyone who can pass

    One solution a Virginia sheriff suggested was to deputize thousands in his county if need be. He currently has about 12 citizens deputized, but in order to allow people to rightfully carry under a new law, he would carefully vet and deputize as many as wanted.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 6:39am

    westcoastjan

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    Derogatory Terminology

    Hi, with respect to the following:

    It should be obvious to all but the most retarded or oblivious that with nearly four million guns in American hands the percentage which are used in criminal acts is vanishingly small.

    As a disability advocate please know that the term “retarded” is considered to be inflammatory and derogatory, much in the same way the ‘N’ word is when describing black people. The correct term/phrase is people with a mental health disability.

    I realize that would not be as impactful in your comment. Perhaps you can find another way to express your sentiment. It will be appreciated by many people!

    Thank you!

    Jan

     

     

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 8:17am

    Quercus bicolor

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    Posts: 334

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    Causes of violence

    Can we all agree that the causes of violence in society are many, complex and inter-related in unpredictable ways?  I think it is also safe to say that in the real world (as opposed to a perfect world where every gun remains safely locked away or in the hands of a responsible, capable owner at all times), the more guns there are the more likely some will fall into the hands of the wrong person (defined as 1. someone who intends to harm or threaten to harm themselves or others either in the heat of the moment or a premeditated act -or- 2. a curious and inexperienced person who is at risk of accidentally harming themselves or others). Of course we can make reasoned arguments about how large these risks are, and how to mitigate them in a way that also prioritizes individual rights to own firearms.  We can also make reasoned arguments about the benefits of gun ownership and whether and how they might outweigh the risks.  In doing so, it is best to avoid black and white thinking or shoddy reasoning to make our point as it will always be noted by those taking the opposite side of the argument - and - mark us as unreliable witnesses in their eyes.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 8:43am

    000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 60

    A point of triggory

    Firstly, I appreciate your voicing this concern but maybe your work makes your view a little too critical? Perhaps he ought to have used quotations if he meant to offend people with disabilities or special needs. However, in defense of free speech, as I understand English, his use is aimed at "normal" readers and a "legal" pejorative usage to describe people who have slowness or limitation in intellectual understanding and awareness, emotional development, academic progress, etc.  As a matter of opinion. Not sure I agree with his characterization but... "It's what it is..."

    Furthermore I believe it is a mistake to make a false equivalence to the "N" word (search "Dolamite" and "Eddie Murphy"). That usage could be interpreted as white entitlement and appropriation. And unnecessarily shame-ing language, which by my light starts to feel manipulative. (ok, ok, we ALL do it, all the time, every day, yes)

    But again, I'm glad your working as an advocate for a population in need of more caring and consciousness.

    Viva Haiti! (yo! Bill, Hillary and Chelsea, where's the money?!)

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 8:50am

    ao

    ao

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    interpretation of derogatory terminology

    Jan,

    Although I wasn't the one who wrote the statement you commented upon, I admit to being a bit befuddled about politically correct terminology.  I remember when I was learning how to tune up a car, the timing of the ignition might be advanced or retarded, depending upon the circumstances.  Retarded simply meant the opposite of advanced.  When I was growing up, the word "retarded" was accepted terminology for an individual who had less cognitive capability than the norm.  I wonder to myself when and how such terminology evolved to becoming derogatory.  Also, it would seem to me that people with a mental health disability is a much broader category than people with impaired cognitive capability.  For example, it could include someone who is suffering from anxiety or depression who actually has a much greater cognitive capability than the norm or someone who is schizophrenic or paranoid or bipolar.  So I think you may actually need a more specific term.

    I also wonder about other terms.  Why is it that "colored people" is no longer socially acceptable but "people of color" is?  Aren't they the same?  We've also seen "crippled" go to "handicapped" go to "disabled" go to "differently abled" (and I'm probably ignorant of the latest term) but the unfortunate truth of the matter is that changing the terminology in this case does nothing to change the affliction.  It almost seems as if the name change is an unconscious (or perhaps conscious) attempt to change something which sadly, is often not very amenable to change.  This whole word evolution process also seems only to create confusion in some and the opportunity for righteous indignation in others.  Either way, I question the wisdom of this whole phenomenon.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 9:11am

    #54

    sand_puppy

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    Agree Quercus, its complicated

    Agree that violence / safety issue is complex.   There are many facets, or "axes" of the issue.

    And, even though I (in the aggregate) advocate for citizen gun ownership, there are some people I am NOT comfortable around knowing they are armed.

    And I do see suicides and accidental shootings.

    I also accept that there are intelligent people who come to the opposite conclusion on gun control from me.  And I can continue to like and respect them.  But it scares me too.

    For me, the biggest issue is that the number of murders committed by military style semi-automatic rifles is very low.  (I'm having trouble finding the statistics right now, but recall about 8% of murders are by rifle with 6% by hunting style rifles and only 2% being semi-auto military style.)  Knives, drowning, clubbing and strangling are as or more common than military style rifle murders.

    Yet the semi-auto military style rifles are the ones that permit groups of citizens to effectively face an abusive oligarchy.  So, it is no surprise to me at all, that semi-auto rifles are what the oligarchy most wishes to ban.

    It is my assumption that the oligarchy is not concerned about the safety of 'the little people.'   They send us to give our lives in wars for empire, drive family farmers from their land, stage coups and price insulin out of reach.   They are ORANGE Meme, not GREEN.  They seek to win.  To dominate and secure control,  like in the late stages of the game of Monopoly or Risk.

    What they are concerned about is that the little people not have the power to say "No More."

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 10:15am

    #55
    Doug

    Doug

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    Politically correct

    That term has come to have a derogatory meaning for many in our culture.  It seems to me that a little sensitivity in how we use trigger words is all that's needed to defuse the whole issue.  Just treat others with a modicum of respect by avoiding use of terms that have evolved to be considered derogatory.  Meanings of words change over time, just try to keep up.  If you find you have unknowingly offended someone, apologize and move on.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 12:06pm

    Quercus bicolor

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    Nice sand puppy!

    Very well argued with data to back it up.  I must say your argument is very convincing.

    One concern:  When order breaks down, all of those guns will get in the hands of all sorts of groups opposing the government - both good and bad.  How they are classified is a matter of individual opinion, but let's look at the Mexican drug gangs which are perhaps more of an insurgency than a criminal enterprise at this time.  Many (most?) of their high power weapons are sourced from American gun shops.  Maybe there is no way to prevent this and maybe eliminating legal access to  semi-auto rifles will curtail access to them for the "good guys" much more than it does for the bad.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 12:50pm

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 392

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    there is a lot of confusion out there

    Hi ao, and others who  have commented re correct use of language.

    I agree that for many it has become confusing and quite often people do not know what to do or say anymore. In so far as the offending word, it still has application in some uses e.g. the flames were retarded by the suppressant. In describing mental health is has fallen from use because it was too often used in a demeaning manner. E.g. saying things like 'don't be so retarded!'

    Sadly for most people with disabilities, we are first and foremost defined by our disabilities. This is why person first language evolved. If a car, or computer network is 'disabled' it means it is not working. If you say I am a disabled person, the implication/message sent is I am not working. Instead, we like to put the person before the disability, to show that first and foremost they are a person! The preference is to say person with a disability, person that is hard of hearing, person that has a mental health disability, and so on.

    Unless you have been on the receiving end of discrimination and the hardship that comes from trying to function in a society that typically sees you as being 'less than' these things are hard to understand. I liked Doug's comment. Just acknowledge a mistake made, be open to learning something new and try not to keep using terms when you know they are offensive to some cohorts. If people can do that then I am a happy camper.

    Jan

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 1:01pm

    #58

    Michael_Rudmin

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    Posts: 881

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    100:1 not enough

    Boomer41: "In other words, law abiding citizen gun owners outnumber those who could be tasked with taking away our guns by at the very least 100:1  Those are impossible odds. All we have to do is simply say “No”.

    If I think about Nat Turner's revlution, or Bacon's Rebellion, outnumbering the enemy 100:1 wasn't enough.  Look at each player's rulebook... then at their tech. then at their deployment.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 1:16pm

    Dave O

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    Dave O said:

    "Knives, drowning, clubbing and strangling are as or more common than military style rifle murders."

    agreed completely.... see Scotland for good examples of knife violence rates after guns are gone.

    Full disclosure..   non gun owner here, but I have spent some time studing violence.

    The average person is ridiculously more likely to be killed by a heart attack than a gun.

    My children that attend school in gun happy Miami Dade County are much more likely to be injured or killed by an irresponsilbe driver than a gun owner.

    I do not understand the focus and fear off guns when there are about a dozen other sources of death that are more likely.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 3:18pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1242

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    how is the determination made?

    Doug,

    I'd really like to know how the determination is made for when a word transitions from being completely acceptable to becoming derogatory.  I mean, who makes that decision?  Is it one person, a committee, a societal consensus (and in the latter case, which element of society, and is that an element that truly and accurately speaks for the majority)?  It certainly doesn't seem to be a very democratic process.  I doubt if the word "gay" made the transition from being happy and carefree to being homosexual by virtue of the majority of the population wanting it to be that way.  And it lends itself to all kinds of potential confusion.  If you call someone "gay" who is care-free and happy yet is heterosexual, is that person supposed to view it positively or negatively?  Ditto with any group of people represented by the one meaning or the other.  You can be one thing one day and then someone decides to slap a different label on you without your permission and, poof, now you've got complications.  It'd be helpful if there were a central clearing house for acceptable and unacceptable terms and terms could only be changed if a majority approved the changes. Also, the frequent linkage of these altered word meanings with Orwellian type authoritarian governments such as communism or fascism is troubling.

    On a personal level, I don't particularly like being referred to as "cis-gender".  I find it that term derogatory.  I also don't like the term  "privilege", especially when preceded by the word "white" and especially when the accused person may have, in reality, had less privilege than the one accusing them of such.  In fact, I don't even like the word, "white".  When we think of white, we think of pasty, anemic, unhealthy people or even worse, people drained of blood or even dead.  I'm not joking about this.  Who decided to call white people "white" or who agreed to accept the term, when in fact, lighter skinned people present with a whole array of coloration, none of which is actually white (like a polar bear or white dove).

    Frankly, I find this growing obsession with and over-sensitivity to perceived or real mislabeling to be more divisive, offensive, and conflict creating than the situation that those purveying these concepts are hoping to ameliorate.  I think that too often, in the hopes of being kind and well meaning, the opposite effect can often be generated.

    I found this well written article on the subject that expresses a lot of my personal feelings on the subject.

    Lefty Lingo

    And of course, this timeless video explains the origins of much (but certainly not all) thought in this area.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 4:03pm

    Boomer41

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Nov 30 2008

    Posts: 125

    4+

    Derogatory Terminology

    Jan,

    I am sorry my use of the word 'retarded' offended you. That was certainly not my intention. In my lexicon it means what I intended it to mean - a person of limited intelligence - which is not the same as a person with a mental disability. However, when I looked it up in my dictionary, I found that the word is “now dated and usually offensive” so I plead ignorance and being educated in England before the meaning morphed into something new. Please accept my apology.

    However, as you yourself noted, replacing 'retarded' with 'people with a mental health disability' ruins the elegance of my prose, but it also does not accurately convey my meaning. What I really meant to say was “ It should be obvious to all but the most stupid or oblivious...”. Would that be OK?

    Regards

    Boomer

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 4:49pm

    #62
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Consider toughening up

    Speaking of retarded...the Federal Reserve and all of these central bankers are fucking retarded.

    Or perhaps the Federal Reserve and said bankers are quite brilliant, and we're all just fucking retarded for putting up with it for as long as we have?

    If you think the discourse is "offensive" now just wait until this everything bubble pops. Suspect very few will give two shits about politically correct articulation once the crunch sets in.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 5:35pm

    MKI

    MKI

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    Perhaps the Fed & said bankers are quite brilliant

    Or perhaps the Federal Reserve and said bankers are quite brilliant, and we’re all just fucking retarded

    Since the Fed has presided over this massive transfer of wealth from voters to the top 1% with barely a peep, I think we all know who is bright and who is not.

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  • Fri, Dec 13, 2019 - 5:47pm

    #64

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 392

    4+

    Not offended, just an advocate

    It would seem that there are some ruffled feathers... I am not offended in any way, well, except for perhaps mildly by Time2help, whose last comment is just plain rude. I come to this site for intelligent debate, not shallow ignorance by people that discount issues that they do not perceive as being worthwhile. Last time I looked civility in discourse was still a highly values trait.

    I try to capitalize on teachable moments. If even one person on this site now reconsiders using the term retarded in a derogatory manner then I have succeeded in what I set out to do in my first comment. Yay!

    Plant good seeds - seeds of inclusiveness and caring about our behaviours, and watch them grow. That too is an important part of respectful community building.

    Jan

     

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  • Sat, Dec 14, 2019 - 9:53am

    Doug

    Doug

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    Joined: Oct 01 2008

    Posts: 1390

    common usage

    ao

    "I’d really like to know how the determination is made for when a word transitions from being completely acceptable to becoming derogatory. "

    My experience is that words take on new meanings through common usage, sort of a consensus type process.  And, sometimes words have two meanings, thus the origin of the term double entendre.

    Your example of the word gay and its evolution over time is instructive, although I don't think most gay people would be offended by being called gay.  That does, however, remind me of an incident from when I was in fifth grade.  My teacher, a well-spoken and kindly grandmotherly sort, and my parents had a parent teacher conference.  This was about 60 years ago.  In the course of the conversation the teacher referred me as "a queer child", a term my parents found amusing since they were aware of the double entendre, but my teacher was not.  She merely meant that I was not a conventional child and I'm sure she would have been shocked to learn the sexuality connotation.  That word was considered derogatory for a long time, but has now been kind of readopted by the gay community to identify a particular segment of the community.

    "You can be one thing one day and then someone decides to slap a different label on you without your permission and, poof, now you’ve got complications. "

    One person slapping a derogatory label on some word probably says more about the name caller than it does about those he/she is labeling.  It is only when such meaning becomes generally accepted that it becomes a issue.

    " It’d be helpful if there were a central clearing house for acceptable and unacceptable terms and terms could only be changed if a majority approved the changes. Also, the frequent linkage of these altered word meanings with Orwellian type authoritarian governments such as communism or fascism is troubling."

    Wow, this sounds like yet another "deep state" conspiracy theory.  There is no Orwellian authority dictating such things.  In fact, your suggestion of having a clearing house for definitions would seem to me to be a step in that direction.  Languages evolve organically through common usage.  Dictionaries just try to keep up.

    "On a personal level, I don’t particularly like being referred to as “cis-gender”."

    Another wow.  I have never heard that term before.  What does it mean?

    As far as privilege or even white privilege goes, I have long considered myself to have been extraordinarily privileged to have been born white and male in mid-20th century America.  Man, talk about hitting the lottery.  The only real complaint I have is that I wasn't born rich.  Damn the fertility gods.

    But again, languages evolve.  We can either adapt or go mad taking offense.

    Thanks Jan for that instructive note.

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  • Sat, Dec 14, 2019 - 11:22am

    #66
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Joined: Jun 08 2011

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    4+

    Common usage

    As a voice of consensus reason your insights are always illuminating Doug.

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  • Sat, Dec 14, 2019 - 4:28pm

    ao

    ao

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    once again, the brilliance of George shines forth

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  • Sat, Dec 14, 2019 - 10:06pm

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

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    Posts: 2039

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    deep state conspiracy

    doug-

    One of your pals - who was in a position to know - had something instructive to say about "deep state" conspiracy theories:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrPaoTpNKZw

    What he said was: "thank God for the Deep State."

    And then he went on to describe the permanent bureaucracy in Washington and how they resist any attempt by elected officials to change what these Deep State folks believe as the correct approach to - whatever, really.

    Which is pretty much the definition of Deep State.

    So now you can rest easy.  Deep State has moved from "conspiracy theory" to accepted worldview, just like all these words we have been talking about going through transformation from "normal" to "offensive."  You too can use the phrase "deep state" without fear of ridicule by your former deep state pals because its use has been normalized by both common usage and now has the express blessing by your friendly CNN-approved former Obama intel people.

    I know it is tough - you have to be flexible in order to move with the times.  One day something is a ridiculed "conspiracy theory", and the next day it is not only approved, but actually blessed by people from your own team!

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  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 2:08am

    #69
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 343

    Cis, trans

    High school Latin in 1961 taught me that the term Cisalpine means "on this side of the Alps" and Transalpine means "on the far side of the Alps". To see the word "cis" used in any context other than the Alpine feels odd. "Trans" is not so bad; we see it used nowadays all over the place. Language and usage change.

    It probably doesn't help to know that in Classical Latin "cis" is pronounced "kiss".

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  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 3:07am

    #70
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 968

    Darn, I’ve thought

    since organic chemistry cis-trans described geometric isomerism. Helped in pushing electrons.

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  • Sun, Dec 22, 2019 - 2:48am

    #71
    fated

    fated

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    Michael - Thank you.

    Michael, Thank you for sharing your situation with us all - you and the other poster's have unknowingly helped me feel comforted. (part of the power of Peak Prosperity) My 68 year old father has also had a very recent diagnosis of stage 4 lung cancer. As a strong and fit farmer who never smoked it's shattered his world and sent him into anger and spiritual turmoil. He's playing the western medicine treatment game, though resigned to death. It's big news and carries a lot of emotional work for everyone involved. I'm sure you don't need my advice, however all I can say is stay true to what you recognise as your life path, and teach and love your loved ones. As a sufferer of anaphylaxis I know time is just shorter for some of us than others.

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  • Mon, Dec 23, 2019 - 6:55am

    #72

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1942

    2+

    A more kinetic Plan B

    http://news.trust.org/item/20191223102815-rp1cx

    Aiming an AR-15 rifle across a Colorado valley dotted with antelope and cattle, Drew Miller explains how members of his new survival ranch would ride out an apocalypse.

    The former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer said his latest Fortitude Ranch community, under construction below mountain forests, will shelter Americans fleeing anything from a bioengineered pandemic to an attack on the electricity grid.

    For an annual fee of around $1,000, members can vacation at the camps in good times, and use them as a refuge during a societal collapse.

    "If you've got a lot of weapons, if you've got a lot of members at guard posts, defensive walls, we don't think we're going to need to fight," said Miller, crouching on top of a fortified position on the camp perimeter.

    The expansion of Miller's camp chain underscores the growing mainstream appeal of the "prepper" movement long associated with anti-government survivalists.

    In recent years prepping has overlapped with millennial interests in renewable energy, homesteading, minimalist living and concerns about climate change.

    Then there is politics.

    Increasingly, Miller said, clients fear sharp political divisions will deepen around the Nov. 3, 2020 U.S. presidential election.

    "There is growing concern that after the 2020 election there could be massive, long-lasting civil unrest if people say, 'Hey, I don't buy the new president, I don't recognize him or her,'" said Miller, who has added "civil war" to his risk scenarios.

    Skeptics said Fortitude Ranch was preparing for catastrophic events that were unlikely and possibly not worth surviving.

    I doubt I could resist joining a group like this if the annual fee was $1,000 and my view of “the plan” and the people involved was satisfactory. But I doubt I’d do it in a state like Massachusetts, New York or Connecticut where I’d expect what was left of the government would be my biggest concern in a collapse of Mad Max proportions.

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