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    Is The Coronavirus (Covid-19) Now Unstoppable?

    New data suggests so
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, February 13, 2020, 11:54 PM

Oh, boy…the scientific research on covid-19 (the new name of the Wuhan coronavirus) continues to reveal what a huge challenge containing this virus is.

A new report from Los Alamos Labs calculates its R0 at between 4.7 to 6.6. That is massively contagious!

It’s little wonder then why we’re seeing more and more reports of doctors and health workers falling sick, despite using proper PPE and contamination protocol.

China, which bumped up the number of total infected within the country by 33% last night, is clearly facing a public health nightmare of epic proportion.

As we keep saying, we think the true reality on the ground there is even much worse than the official numbers we’re being given.

That said, China’s totalitarian approach of mandatory home quarantine for hundred of millions of people is likely the best way to fight a virus this contagious.

Will other countries, like the US, be able to enforce such controls on their populations if required to combat covid-19? Could they, even if they tried?

A full-blown pandemic looks increasingly unstoppable at this point.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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65 Comments

  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:34am

    #1

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

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    Senate testimony on pandemic

    Chris,

    if you have not yet listened to the senate homeland security committee I suggest you do. Lots of good info in the expert testimony, especially Dr. Gottlieb. https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/are-we-prepared-protecting-the-us-from-global-pandemics

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 5:35am

    #2
    epicurean empiricist

    epicurean empiricist

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    ??

    Chris,

    First comment from a new subscriber.

    I have read everything on this site over the last couple of weeks and think your video updates have been superlative.

    I have one BIG question. Why few to no deaths outside China??

    I realize all the statistics come with caveats. Not testing asymptomatic carriers in the U.S.. China lying about their stats, etc. I think you touched on this in the cytokine storm video. Did China expose/vaccinate their population with an experimental SARs vaccine AND then inadvertently/accidentally/or on purpose, expose them to Covid-19 with the resultant pathological overreaction of the immune system to the Covid-19 resulting in the high serious complication rate? Or is this an overreaction to an accidental release of Covid-19?

    I guess I have subsequent questions. What does that portend for the serious complication rate for those of us outside China who probably will not face this the first time it comes around? Will we be subject to a 1918 Spanish flu situation where the second wave a year latter gets us?

    AJ

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:01am

    #3
    davez

    davez

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    davez said:

    China's data is too questionable. Here's a chart for monitoring Singapore (or any other location). The model I'm using is a simple normal distribution. Values above the chart can be modified as needed to adjust the curve.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h-EcBFcAATToU8hJGxfv91swCFPK0a8UFCnlJyhCvHM/edit#gid=2070840390

    I can't promise I'll keep it updated, so copy if needed.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:02am

    #4
    Matties

    Matties

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    Re : ??

    I can answer for Chris, he doesn't know. We can aggregate and analyse incoming news and numbers.

    We do know a lot about SARS. There have been extensive studies. We know that the Chinese where far more prone to get sick from SARS. We also know the higher temperature and humidity the less the impact.

    At this stage we will not know whether the Chinese vaccinated. They would keep that a secret.

    But the numbers of SARS at its high point were terrible and not unlike COVIR 19.

    It was the stupidity and fear which lead to ignoring the crisis in the beginning followed by a fatal decision to go forward with the new year holidays causing COVIR 19 to succeed in massive spreading.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:07am

    #5
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    What outbreak in history was ever

    When I look back at the big outbreaks of diseases I dont see any that were actually "stopped" by human intervention. There is a narrative that "they stopped" ebola, but the fact is that a harmless variant of ebola spring up and inoculated most of the population. Humans had absolutely nothing to do with halting the progression of the Ebola virus.
    Spanish flu, ebola, sarrs, plague, etc...they run their course. Not much we can do. The disease runs its course, authorities claim to be working on it while giving us wrong numbers, and when its over they claim victory and society goes back to believing that we are in control of our destiny.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:22am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Dr Gottlieb

    very informative. we've been caught with our pants down on all these chokepoints in global supply chains.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:22am

    #7

    dtrammel

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    New Study - No Evidence Pregnant Women, Covid Jump To Fetus

    https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/02/no-coronavirus-transmission-in-pregnant-women-to-womb/

    A new study published in The Lancet, however, has found no evidence that COVID-19 is passed from women in their third trimester to their unborn fetus in the womb, a mechanism known as vertical transmission, based on examination of medical records and tissue samples from nine pregnant patients who were infected with the disease.

    If proper isolation practices during and after birth are followed, women diagnosed with COVID-19 should be able to deliver healthy babies without the infection, said Wei Zhang, associate professor of preventive medicine at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and co-author of the study. Wei cautioned, however, that these results may not be generalizable to earlier-stage pregnancies.

    “Many pregnant women are concerned right now, and these findings confirm there’s no scientific evidence for vertical transmission,” Zhang said. “But, all of the women in this study were in the later stages of pregnancy: we don’t yet know about any potential transmission during earlier trimesters.”

    Link to study:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30360-3/fulltext

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:27am

    #8
    Matties

    Matties

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    CDC is guessing...

    "We don't know a lot about this virus," Redfield told CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

    Right... I think this will peter out in high summer. But there is the possibility, like plaque hiding in rodents in the US, that this corona can be passed to the bats. Then and only then it will indigenous.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:31am

    #9
    ciacovops

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    Any thoughts on this being a sars vaccine gone wrong end result?

    Starting to wonder if the human manipulation theorists are almost on point...

    ..but removing a malicious intent motivation....

    Perhaps not outside the realm of possibility..

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:34am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    vertical transmission

    A topic that needs explored. The fact that endogenous retroviruses actually become part of the genome (at least 8% of the human genome is viral origin) makes a nice backdrop for some good dystopian science fiction scenarios. Gives the concept of a bad seed a whole new dimension. Especially if the virus is man made and winds up infecting most of the globe, this could a self-inflicted evolutionary event.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:45am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: Singapore data

    Davez - thanks for putting together the Singapore data.  Will be interested to see how this progresses there.  Agreed the Chinese data is garbage, not only are they tailoring their narrative, so many other factors skew data such as folks hiding out/not going to hospital for diagnosis and inability to keep up with any sort of testing.....

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:55am

    #12
    wyrldtraveler

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    mutation via cosmic ray exposure

    Weakening of global magnetic field strength due to sun entering a Grand Minimum (a la Maunder Minimum) increases chance of genetic mutations worldwide in everything, not just nasty viruses of unknown origin.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 8:10am

    #13

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Not Paranoid

    Health and Human Services Secretary says our risk is very low at this time!
    Ugh, why don’t I feel happy with that news😳.My favorite response is “I am not paranoid, just better informed”!

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 9:04am

    #14
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Covid-2019: What's in a name?

    Note that none of the other viruses names have incorporated a date:  Ebola, Swine Flu, H1N1, Avian Flu, SARS, MERS. The earlier version of the novel coronavirus referenced the year the "first" case was identified:  nCoV-2019. The new name, Covid-2019, also identifies the year. Did they choose this naming convention to allow for identification of future coronavirus outbreaks: Covid-2020, Covid-2021? Maybe they'll need to make a distinction between first, second, third or more waves:  Covid-2020.a, Covid-2020.b, etc.  A scary possibility....

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 9:09am

    #15
    FooBarr

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    Hey Newbies, seriously consider the PP Premium Subscription. It's worth every penny, especially now!

    FWIW, I've been a PP Premium member for over 5 years.  There has been a few times in the past couple of years where I thought about dropping my PP subscription, but I glad I’ve stuck with it, and especially during these past few weeks.

    Essentially it cost about the same as taking two really smart dudes out to a nice steak and lobster dinner every 3 months and picking their brains for hours on Chris' 3 E’s (Energy, Environment, & Economy).  Awesome non-political and fact-based analysis and assessments.  You won’t regret signing up.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 9:22am

    #16
    Galway87

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    Not genetically engineered?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004067/Killer-coronavirus-NOT-genetically-engineered-Scientist-debunks-conspiracy-claims.html

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 9:30am

    Steve

    Steve

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    Teflon Man

    Based upon his lack of direct answers and deflected responses, there is cause for concern.  He seems genuine about the anticipated future responses.  However, it has been quite a long time from case zero until now and there is a lot of water over the dam already without overt activity.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 10:09am

    LeftCoaster

    LeftCoaster

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    #8 Senate hearing

    Dear Cheapseats,

    For some reason the link did not work when I tried it repeatedly. It just says they will start at 9;30 & then nothing. Any chance you can repost the link & I will try again?

    Thanks

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 10:49am

    #19
    SpinUpDr

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    China seems to be giving up on containment

    All, FYI : The newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party  China Daily ( https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/ ) today has a number of articles where they seem to have given up on containment, and focus instead on mitigating the effects, consistently with the analysis in today's video.  Especially this article (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/14/WS5e45951aa31012821727767d.html), where Xi Jinping is quoted as : "The fatality rate remains at a relatively low level, breakthroughs are being made in treatment methods and the recovery rate continues to rise" To me, what is said between the lines comes down to preparing the mood for an announcement that containment will be abandoned at some point.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:15am

    #20
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

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    Finally

    At least some people are doubting China’s numbers, from Barron’s:

    “ECONOMIC BEAT

    China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. “This Never Happens With Real Data”

    Health officials in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak reported a surge in new infections Thursday after changing how they diagnose the illness. The announcement underpins signs that the virus data out of China is flawed.

    Officials in the Hubei province, made up of 60 million people, reported more than 13,000 new cases when they expanded how they test patients from throat-swabs to more thorough examinations. The new cases brought the total count to nearly 60,000 infections from 45,000 on Wednesday. Most of those cases and all but one death have been in China.

    The sharp revision out of Hubei casts further doubt that the numbers China is reporting to the World Health Organization are reliable. Virus data from China have been in focus in recent weeks as economists and investors try to gauge the economic toll of the outbreak, which has already slowed the world’s second-largest economy and led many U.S. companies operating there to suspend operations. After hitting record highs Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes dipped Thursday on the new revelations.

    Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.

    China’s U.S. embassy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

    “I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

    For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”

    There’s one scenario where the data could be understandably manipulated, Goodman said. Because there are privacy concerns around public health data, it’s conceivable that someone would simulate the data based on real data, so as not to make the data identifiable. But even then, the r-squared in this case is extraordinarily high. Moreover, Goodman said when data are manipulated to protect privacy, it would need to be disclosed; there is no such disclosure on the WHO site.

    Some economists say there is a longstanding measurement problem in China, irrespective of the coronavirus. Official economic statistics often differ from private attempts to replicate the results. The government-created purchasing-managers index was stronger than a closely watched private version during every month of 2019.

    “It’s an emerging economy,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “There’s a natural roughness to the data.”

    But questionable data makes forecasting the severity of the virus and economic hit in China and beyond that much harder.

    Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said he expects the outbreak to shave 1.5 percentage points off Chinese gross domestic product this year. He recently revised his 2020 GDP estimate for China to 4.6% from 6.1%, and he said he thinks the virus will take a 0.5 percentage point off global growth this year.

    Estimates like Slok’s, of course, are based in part on data being supplied to the WHO by China.”

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:19am

    km64

    km64

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    km64 said:

    The link is working for me, the actual hearing doesn't start until around 18 minutes into the video.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:35am

    #22

    sand_puppy

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    Densely Populated Cities Will Require Totalitarian Police Policies

    Reading about the latest round of Chinese big city quarantine efforts enforced by soldiers.  I'm reminded of Isaac Asimov's bathroom metaphor.

    If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, then both have what I call freedom of the bathroom, go to the bathroom any time you want, and stay as long as you want to for whatever you need. And this to my way is ideal.

    And everyone believes in the freedom of the bathroom. It should be right there in the Constitution.

    But if you have 20 people in the apartment and two bathrooms, no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom, there is no such thing. You have to set up times for each person, you have to bang at the door, aren't you through yet, and so on.  And in the same way, …human dignity …. and decency cannot survive [high population density].

    I believe that we are looking at the same type of issue with quarantine.  In a rural environment social distancing can be done by mutual agreement and follows pretty naturally--our family sticks to ourselves and asks you folks not to come over or approach our house.   We milk our cows, work our gardens and walk the dogs on quiet roadways pretty much alone.

    But in the city, where neighbors live within 20 feet of each other and pass within touching distances in the hallways, social distancing will have to be decreed with laws enforced at the barrel of a soldier's gun.

    Where do I want to be during this phase?  Pretty clear to me.  In a very low density setting. 

    Maybe a rural apartment would be good to scope out?

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:45am

    #23

    Montana Native

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    Homeland Pandemic Roundtable link

     

    https://youtu.be/aIlISly7Nts

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:53am

    #24

    saxplayer00o1

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    Egypt confirms first coronavirus case, says affected person is a foreigner

    https://news.yahoo.com/egypt-confirms-first-coronavirus-case-171459581.html

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:01pm

    #25

    saxplayer00o1

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    CDC urges local hospitals to develop pandemic plan

    CDC urges local hospitals to develop pandemic plan
    Coronavirus has now surpassed the number of people infected with Ebola, SARS and MERS combined.

    As those numbers continue to climb, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now urging local hospitals to get out their pandemic plans and start preparing.

    Doctors across the United States are using a novel coronavirus tracker created by Johns Hopkins University to prepare for a possible pandemic or outbreak.

    Firefighters, ambulance crews and clinic workers are on the front lines of trying to prevent an outbreak of the new coronavirus in southeast Wisconsin by isolating those who are sick.

    https://www.wisn.com/article/cdc-urges-local-hospitals-to-develop-pandemic-plan/30918555

    ========================
    Over 1,700 frontline medics infected with coronavirus in China, presenting new crisis for the government
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/index.html

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:13pm

    #26

    stpaulmercantile

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    Time to put on our Big Boy Pants

    Chris’s Is it Unstoppable post is helping me deal with my own fears about this virus.  I feel like a young child who is facing a doctor appointment where he will get 3 shots.   The fear, uncertainty and continued angst about the upcoming appointment occupies all his time and paralyzes the boy.  His mom then tells him that it’s going to happen and there’s nothing he can do to stop it, so it is time for him to put on his big boy pants, get the shots, experience the pain, then move on.

    I have been a Prepper since 1998.  I have enough supplies to self-quarantine for at least three months.  I have masks, protective suits, alternate ways to heat my home, generators and fuel.  I have water filters that remove bacteria from water so I can use rainwater or river water.  I have multiple HEPA filtration units, all of which have UV lights to kill bacteria and viruses.  I have medical supplies, prescription meds and a stockpile of antibiotics and other commonly prescribed prescription meds.  I have defensive items.  I even have a friend who lives in a remote location where I could retreat to with all my “stuff”.  I’ve been preparing for something like this for more than 20 years.  But I find myself as scared of the next several months as that little boy waiting for his shots.

    It now looks probable that this virus is unstoppable and that almost every one of us will eventually be exposed to it.  Some of us will breeze through it, some will get sick, others very sick, and a small percentage will die.  I will still do my best to avoid being exposed, but it is time for me to face the fact most of the 7.5 billion people on earth will probably eventually be exposed and even I won’t be able to avoid exposure forever.

    I’m trying to turn my fear into acceptance that it’s coming, that we can’t avoid exposure forever, so it is time to put on my big boy pants, face it as bravely as I can, and hope that I will make it through.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:15pm

    Mr Curious

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    Not genetically engineered?

    James, I'm certainly willing to entertain the possibility that this is NOT man made. However, the Dailymail article you posted is beyond lame. They don't offer any evidence to make their case. That article also says that this is an epidemic, not a pandemic. Their use of the term 'conspiracy theory' allows them not to discuss any actual data but rather discredit anybody who brings up the topic.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:29pm

    #28
    planfortomorrow

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    news, hair stood on end. You were born for this Chris.

    I just heard that Singapore has the next highest out break of Ninja Virus. They also have had temperatures into the 80's now suggesting that the Virus may not die off when the weather changes. Just another question mark to a the list of out of sort information.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:49pm

    LeMon3

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    LeMon3 said:

    Mr. C and James, it seems to me that the origins of the virus are at this point irrelevant and that the attempts to pinpoint the origin as "manmade" are simply the need to apportion blame. The main issue I have with this is that in most other areas where this behaviour occurs, once some party has been blamed, it's "job done" and time to get back to watching TV or whatever. More useful to work out how to respond to the threat than to find someone to be responsible for our upcoming pain, methinks...

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:51pm

    #30
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Nice CM/PP shout-out from Mike Maloney on his informative new video re: Covid-2019

    What I'm Doing To Prepare For Coronavirus/Covid-19 - Mike Maloney

    https://youtu.be/9DC6zqHmbqA

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:55pm

    #31
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    9 ways to talk to people who spread coronavirus myths

    The spread of misinformation about the novel coronavirus, now known as COVID-19, seems greater than the spread of the infection itself.

    The World Health Organisation (WHO), government health departments and others are trying to alert people to these myths.

    But what’s the best way to tackle these if they come up in everyday conversation, whether that’s face-to-face or online? Is it best to ignore them, jump in to correct them, or are there other strategies we could all use?

    Source

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:56pm

    #32
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    When is a myth not a myth?

    The Globe and Mail (see link to myth above) is soothing and needs to be considered. But are they also saying "peace in our time" ?

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:01pm

    Barbara

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    Rural Apartments? HIGH RISK

    In a lot of rural areas, with large stocks of aging housing and decreasing populations, non-transient working people have houses.  There is a large underclass who are either on welfare or working at minimum wage who flock to the apartments as they are built.
    I'd be really careful about an apartment building. The neighbors will NOT be self-sufficient nor respectful of your rights.

    Rent an old farmhouse or an old house left vacant when it's elderly owner died.  you know how to camp out.  It's just easier inside a house.  Ask the locals what's empty and how to contact the family to talk about rental.  You're looking for an empty farmhouse on an acreage where the owner has bought up additional acreage leaving them with two houses.  Also, some farmers with off-farm jobs live in a more convenient town and commute to the farm instead of the other way, leaving a house empty.  They will rent to you and they will be great neighbors.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:03pm

    #34
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    US: Feds employ early warning systems, flu patients to be tested for Covid-2019

    Feds Employ ‘Early Warning System’; San Francisco Flu Patients To Be Tested For Coronavirus

    "Calling it an “early warning system,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced Friday that flu patients in San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago would also undergo testing for the coronavirus."

    https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-san-francisco-flu-patients-tested-for-coronavirus/

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:18pm

    #35
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    China diagnosing Covid-2019 patients via CT scans; photos of normal vs. infected CT scans

     

    China is diagnosing coronavirus patients by looking for 'ground glass' in their lungs. Take a look at the CT scans.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-2

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:23pm

    #36

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Genetically Engineered

    Cui Bono - who benefits? Also, if you follow the money it takes you to high places and the uber rich.

    LeMon3 - the point isn't about assigning blame it is about holding people accountable for the deaths and suffering of countless people. If we as a society choose to ignore who, how, and why we condone and even enable the next incident. Mass murder should not be dismissed lightly.

    It behoves us all to ask for answers or we will relive the past, over and over.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:33pm

    #37
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    China has come to a full stop

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-disintegrating-steel-demand-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero

    This is not going to restart in a week or 2. It will be months...

    Start stocking up...

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:35pm

    #38
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    India: Man Kills Himself After Mistakenly Thinking That He Had Covid-2019, to Prevent Spread to His Family

    Man Kills Himself After Mistakenly Thinking That He Has Coronavirus

    "A man has taken his own life after mistakenly thinking that he had been infected with coronavirus. It was gathered that he died by hanging himself from a tree in a bid to avoid the transmission of the virus to his family in India."

    "The family of 50-year-old Bala Krishna said he had obsessively watched videos about the spread of the disease after contracting viral fever he wrongly thought was coronavirus."

    https://9jaflaver.com/man-kills-himself-after-mistakenly-thinking-that-he-has-coronavirus-photo/

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:45pm

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    3+

    I concur

    Cheapseats,

    Having now sat through that Senate testimony link you provided, I agree with you that it is worth the time to listen to (as someone noted - skip forward to minute 18 for the start of the testimony). It fits with a lot of what has been said here for a while now, so this is a precocious community, not alarmist. Dr. Gottleib was the most articulate on the matter and especially on where the danger lies for the rest of the world. Namely the number of 'çases' that we haven't detected as of yet.

    He's referring to exactly what I spelled out 8 days ago in my Math and Mortality post. Namely that we likely have several ongoing outbreaks in the US that haven't risen to a noticeable level yet.

    His comparison to Singapore is apt. The number of Chinese visitors to Singapore and the United States are comparable (3.4 vs 3 million/yr). However, the nation of Singapore is actually a city-state so all the infections are concentrated in one place and much more easily detected. They are also an amazingly organized and equipped country. Stay times in Singapore are likely shorter than the US but it's interesting that if you simply scale by annual visitors (~90% for the US) and number of current cases in Singapore (67) and the modeled expectation for infected people being caught ~25% then 0.9 x 67 x .25 = 15 (which just happens to be the number of currently known cases in the United States).... eerie.

    Perhaps that's just coincidental but it would equate to having another 45 unknown and undetected but infected people running around somewhere in the country. That's actually a very back of the envelope number but it gets the point across. There are likely several spreading outbreaks in the US (and other countries for that matter).

    Hence the estimation by one of the speakers that we will probably start seeing outbreaks crop up across the country within the next 2-4 weeks as those doubling times and delayed complication rates start adding up to unusual concentrations of emergency room visits with unexplained pneumonia symptoms.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 1:56pm

    #40
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 412

    re: indian man - what did he think he had ebola?

    This guy was a raging lunatic - You have about 80% chance of mild and about 50-90% chance of surviving severe.  That makes no sense..  this is 90% plus survivable..   this makes no sense - he and his family was not infirm in anyway.. this is really nuts.  I do not think there is much loss - he was gone long ago..

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:10pm

    #41
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    2+

    Chinese military knew...

    曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
    @jenniferatntd
    This is really a bombshell. Naval University of Engineering in #Wuhan, one of the five comprehensive military universities of PLA (official info: http://bit.ly/2URmJ5x) issued a lockdown notice on Jan. 2, 18 days BEFORE the gov. admitted there was an epidemic, 21 days BEFORE..

    Image

    Image

    10:47 PM · Feb 14, 2020·Twitter Web App

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:13pm

    #42
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1+

    Uptick desease count coming...

    Chinese experts said that there may be a surge on #COVID19 confirmed recently as more cities outside #Wuhan in Hubei include clinically diagnosed cases and medical staff may face more pressure. http://bit.ly/2Srokx5

     

    I think that Chris can upgrade his doom scenario for the financial world.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:14pm

    #43
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 412

    5+

    The window to prep is almost closed. _ this is going to be much worse than I or we anticipated

    I have said this was issue since about 23 of Jan.  This was a real deal. but it was not going to be a humanity ender in any way.. I did think we will have overwhelmed medical and additional deaths of all causes due to that..  But now I see this as much much worse economically than I originally thought.  I do see starvation and other required resources being an issue during this plague.  AND I now believe there will be significant very very significant social unrest - as health and death issues become more severe - but when the true economic impacts begins to surface, I see something much much worse than I ever imagined as a rational man.   I am not in panic mode.. I am too old for this but have young child whom I am greatly concerned about the future.  And , I do not have the resources to prep or protect her for the next few years , that I expect to be very very bad.   ( even if you survive the virus )

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:38pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    Indian man's suicide: unstable yes, let's see how the MSM runs with this.

    IMO, yes, I think this man had perhaps some mental health problems that led him to commit suicide. Any crisis will push individuals that are already unstable over the edge. This story hasn't hit MSM yet. If it does, I think it will be used as an example of the dangers of profiteering trolls and conspiracy theorists that are pushing the Covid-2019 "infodemic" of misinformation, causing panic among the public.  We'll see.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:41pm

    #45

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 444

    3+

    Well, it's official: Hawai'i has Covid-19

    Department of Health just did a presser -- Japanese tourist who was on Oahu and Maui for 11 days developed symptoms on 2/3 and upon return to Japan was hospitalized for Covid-19.

    I've basically been acting as if it was here for a couple weeks.  Now we know.  Big change that this will cause is the rank and file will start to panic and prep.

    Better to be a year early than a day late.  Prepare accordingly...

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:45pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 184

    2+

    Reply to Nordicjack

    There is plenty of time to prepare the stores are FULL of stuff. Maybe take a break from looking at all this news. Singapore, with its 5 million people and 67 reported cases, is not in a state of chaos. Until your immediate area is reporting 100s of cases things will remain normal.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 3:44pm

    Snow Eater

    Snow Eater

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    Joined: Feb 09 2020

    Posts: 28

    3+

    Thanks for Hawaii info

    Christ well there it is. I am supposed to go to Maui in a couple of weeks and I have been biting my nails wondering what I should do. I have been so sure my friends won't take this virus seriously that I haven't even talked to them about it yet. This might finally be the piece of media I can show them.

    Poor Hawaii.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 4:43pm

    pangiagreg

    pangiagreg

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 28 2009

    Posts: 17

    1+

    Good point

    I think your comment is relevant for further consideration.

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 1:37am

    #49
    boutique1976

    boutique1976

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 4

    3+

    Thank you for your daily videos!

    I own a busy retail store in a busy tourist location and have hundreds of thousands of people come through a year from all over the world. My daughter works with me. My husband is a full time FF/EMT and my son is a full time FF/EMT and his new wife is a stewardess for a major airline. We are all exposed daily to lots of people from all over the world, so you can imagine how terrifying this is for our family- I envy those of you who can self isolate. I am a big believer in being  prepared not scared so we are making sure we have supplies and medicine, we are peppers so we know how to hunt and live off the land but that is not easy or something that you want to have to do to survive. I get off work and watch your videos every night and I am so thankful for all the hard work you put into them, its keeping me up to date and making me feel less alone in facing this monster of a virus! I am also trying to enjoy the day and live in the moment because thats really all we have, situations like this have a way of bringing you back to what is important! stock up on your elderberry, Vit C  and try and get extra rest! Wishing all of you health and strength and we face this!

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 2:27am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    4+

    Mark Cochrane

    I’m working under the assumption that there are some undiagnosed people in the USA.  There was a daily flight to JFK from Wuhan, which was only cancelled in late January.  I believe one to LAX as well.  There could have been 30k people from Wuhan flying to the USA since the infection began till flights were stopped.  I’m assuming Dr Gottlieb is correct and that there will be identified outbreaks in major cities by mid April, and self sustaining epidemic by mid May. I’m also assuming that stocks will run low from supply chain disruptions by them.  The .gov will quarantine and prevent secondary effects on the economy, supply chain and social order.  The rationing of essential supplies will require a heavy hand.  More people will probably be impacted by the secondary effects than covid 19 itself.

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 5:31am

    #51

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 283

    1+

    Still no 'confirmed' case in Mongolia, but impact is being felt on the economy

    Mongolia's gov't is still keeping mum about the rumored coronavirus death in Khuvsgul Province. I still entertain the possibility it was a spurious rumor, but the fact that the gov't here has given zero evidence to the contrary about the quarantined person is not helping their case. In fact the news will only mention the 'fake news consequences' angle of the story and avoid any mention of the person in question:

    COVID-19: fake news arrests

    https://news.mn/en/790905/

    Just on a side note, the social adaptations here in Ulaanbaatar might speak to what other places might experience if/when this spreads widely. Restaurants and food courts are still open, but seem to be doing less business. The school & university shutdowns have been extended almost another month to the end of March. Businesses that run on children's activities or child care are shut down, but presumably still need to pay rent and other expenses (and their employees are without jobs in the meantime). The coal exports (and presumably other mineral exports) to China have been stopped after some of the coal truck drivers got flu-like symptoms, so that means even more people without jobs. That is likely to be followed by some of the mining workers being let go or put on extended unpaid leave (and those are well-paid jobs compared to the national average). I can't imagine them getting through this without social capital and systems of support with family & friends.

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 6:22am

    #52
    GreenCebu

    GreenCebu

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 5

    Estimate of how many undetected cases there might be

    I made this plot of confirmed cases versus the exposure to Chinese tourists. I think this can be used to estimate how many undetected cases there might be in countries. Countries like Japan, Singapore , Germany and France are at the top of the envelope, all plot in a line as of Feb 7, all probably find the most cases, these 4 have an R squared of 99%. Then the distance of the other countries to this line can give us an estimate of the number of undetected cases. Thailand more than 80, US thirty, Phil 10, all as of Feb 7. Here is the plot. And the volume data.Here is the table The red line is a regression through all the points.

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 9:20am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    3+

    Who benefits

    Cui bono? I can't imagine that this is 'good' for the uber rich. Such a diabolical plan would require them to first have a vaccine for themselves, I would think. Have they thought about supply chains for their private jets, the health of all their servants etc... This seems more like an accidental release. Or maybe a bat had relations with a snake... we just don't know at this point. We may never know.

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 1:29pm

    dreinmund

    dreinmund

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2011

    Posts: 37

    dreinmund said:

    Re: Senate hearing

    This was good and informative, until Sen. Harris made it outright political. What a shame.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 4:43pm

    MillenialFalcon

    MillenialFalcon

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 29 2016

    Posts: 14

    Give Jonas Salk A Little Credit

    This is a reply to the person who said we have never controlled a pandemic before.  I haven't heard Chris make any references to ROs of Polio.  Even at the higher end of the estimate, I believe this Covid-19 is very similar to Polio.  There have been virus outbreaks since 1919 that were controlled & have been almost completely eradicated.  Thanks for providing all your services Chris & Adam but a little balance might help some of these newer members gain a little more perspective.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 8:19pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 67

    re: Salk

    There is some debate as to the efficacy of the vaccine to curb polio outside of mainstream science.  The argument has been made that the outbreak was already on the decline when the vaccine was introduced.

    While I am not going to argue for or against, it may be interesting to note that there do not appear to be any studies of the efficacy of a vaccine vs. not vaccinating (a control group) in which side effects are tracked.  (If you believe that there are no harmful possible side effects, one need only read the insert which comes with the vaccine itself.)  It may also be interesting to note that a vaccine is supposed to protect the recipient from disease, yet people who can't be bothered to hold the door open for me in a rainstorm are terrified that I might NOT get a vaccine... like they care if I get sick or not?  As a vaccinated person, they are protected, right?

    Or is something strange here?  Nevermind, what are the Kardashians up to these days?

    We have been told that a SARS vaccine was produced and served only to supercharge the body's negative reaction to the virus in mice.  We cannot confirm nor disprove that a SARS vaccine was introduced in Wuhan or elsewhere in China.

    We also have to deal with the asymptomatic spread of the virus and the rate of contagion; I'm not even sure that we have proof that it is not transmitted as an aerosol.  Too many unknowns to declare "all clear" quite yet.  My signal that it's probably okay is a month after the Superbowl- the US equivalent to Wuhan's CNY exodus.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 9:06pm

    #57
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 29

    Questions

    If the coronavirus can in theory be transmitted 24 days after infection does that support the theory that this outbreak occurred due to a lab accident (did someone get infected who did not quarantine themselves for the proper 24 day time period)? Also does anyone really believe this new virus outbreak was not a Chinese lab accident? Really?

    Why do I not see an analysis (sick, severe, deaths) by ethnic background of patients? I want to understand if the ace2 argument has any validity. Does this virus hit Asians much harder than non-Asians or is that a bogus theory?

    How can China lock down 760 million people and yet we still see its stock market rise? Does this make any sense to anyone?

    Why are we not discussing what happens to those who get a severe dose of this disease and recover? Are they permanently damaged (e.g., lungs scarred, heart damaged, kidneys damaged, etc.)? Is their life span shortened?

    If the r naught is as high as 4-6 as stated in many articles (and supported by the numbers from the ship off Japan) than this disease should be almost everywhere in China and if that is the case then either China is hiding many many deaths or the death rate is very very very low.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 9:27pm

    #58

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    3+

    Your Questions Have Been Covered Extensively Here

    Truth9834, your questions have been extensively covered here, you just have to take some time and read thru the old post comments.

    If the coronavirus can in theory be transmitted 24 days after infection does that support the theory that this outbreak occurred due to a lab accident (did someone get infected who did not quarantine themselves for the proper 24 day time period)? Also does anyone really believe this new virus outbreak was not a Chinese lab accident? Really?

    The answer to that is up for debate. Some say it may be a accidental release and others say its natural. Read the threads.

    Why do I not see an analysis (sick, severe, deaths) by ethnic background of patients? I want to understand if the ace2 argument has any validity. Does this virus hit Asians much harder than non-Asians or is that a bogus theory?

    Extensive analysis has been shown here in comments. Ethnic background doesn't seem to be a factor. Neither does smoking. Read the threads.

    How can China lock down 760 million people and yet we still see its stock market rise? Does this make any sense to anyone?

    Chris and others have spoken at length on how the Markets are being used to send the signal "All is Fine". It doesn't make any sense to those of us who have been following this. Again read the threads.

    Why are we not discussing what happens to those who get a severe dose of this disease and recover? Are they permanently damaged (e.g., lungs scarred, heart damaged, kidneys damaged, etc.)? Is their life span shortened?

    Repeated discussion by many here that it appears you can get the virus a second time and that early damage can cause severe complications, including heart failure". Did I suggest, read the threads?

    If the r naught is as high as 4-6 as stated in many articles (and supported by the numbers from the ship off Japan) than this disease should be almost everywhere in China and if that is the case then either China is hiding many many deaths or the death rate is very very very low.

    Very early on, we realized the Chinese numbers were fake.

    I know people who are just realizing that the situation is serious AND who are just finding Peak Prosperity want answers BUT Chris and the community have been covering this for almost three weeks.

    Take some time and read what has been written here please. There is a huge amount of informative and informative posts by dozens of people who answer your questions in depth. Take your own safety in your own hands, don't expect others to hold them for you.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 9:39pm

    #59

    thatchmo

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 13 2008

    Posts: 194

    2+

    Uighurs...

    I wonder how all those tormented Uighurs are doing out in Xinjiang.....?  Any Covid-19 cases seen out there?  If those people are highly susceptible to the virus, CCP might "discover" a large outbreak "out west"- unfortunately too far away from available State resources to contain....Then again, losing all those folks might hinder the reported organ harvesting program in China.  Can't imagine that program having many customers (recipients, anyway) in the near term, given the current situation.  Now that I think about it, as the CCP seems preoccupied with other matters, perhaps it's time for a bit of insurrection out west.......Best to all, Aloha, Steve

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 10:20pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    2+

    Truth9834, dtrammel: good questions, good summary. A more robust PP search function could help.

    Truth9834, Welcome to the PP tribe!

    Truth, those are all very good questions; dtrammel, you've provided a succinct update on where the PP community discussions are (or are not) on those questions.

    This whole coronavirus topic is complex and dynamic, with new information, research and events coming out daily or even hourly. The PP discussion threads are very dense, but they do provide a great deal of perspective and some answers (which are not always definitive) to the questions you've raised, Truth. So it'll take some dedicated time to dig through the threads, Truth, but I think it will be time well spent as it'll provide you with great insight.

    I've followed this coronavirus discussion and videos pretty closely over the past several weeks, but there are times when I can't keep up and/or locate posts for specific information or from specific PP members. This must be especially difficult for new PP members trying to become familiar with the site overall and the extensive and content-heavy coronavirus threads, articles and videos.

    Not whining, but I'll put in my vote again for a more robust search/advanced search function for the PP website. This might help one search by terms (e.g., "ACE", "oxygen", masks, "bioweapon", "elderberry", "CDC") when wanting to explore posts and other content on the PP site. Some PP members have suggested pulling together a summary list about a particular subtopic. Dtrammel, you've done a great job of consolidating information into one location for some key subtopics.  An improved search function will help make that process easier and quicker.

    I know Chris, Adam and the PP team are working 'round the clock to keep us informed and keep this site working well.  My hope is that they will find a breather for their own well-being. Time, energy and technology permitting, I think that a more robust PP search function would be a great improvement and benefit for all concerned.

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  • Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - 3:26am

    #61
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1+

    Re : A more robust PP search function could help.

    Yes i agree. The many general post lines are obscuring info. Maybe to set up fixed post lines.

    I personally make sometimes a summary which i save on my computer.

    But also like yesterday i found this table about 1000 genomes on zerohedge and put it on peakprosperity.

     

    A day later the table was gone.

    It seems that by copy and paste the link to this, in this case zerohedge,  is posted on the peakprosperity and not a hard copy. Google is providing the workings of this link (NOT !). Luckily i found it somewhere on the internet again. Now i made a hard copy on my computer, made a PDF of it and then uploaded it to peakprosperity. Now a hard copy is on peakprosperity.

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  • Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - 7:04am

    #62

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    3+

    Yes, Search Would Be Great

    We work with what we have.

    I realize what a job it is to read thru all the posts and comments. I'm not unsympathetic to new members and their desire to find the answers. This is scary s41t. But there are quite a few of us, who are putting together long and detailed summaries on all the subjects Truth9836 asked about.

    I've actually been trying to put together three collections of comments from the many video posts, in order by date.

    Coronavirus: Home Preparation, Deep Pantry & Gardening

    Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements

    Coronavirus: Sanitation, Personal Protective Equipment and Self Quarantine

    Which I will begin posting in the next day or two. I wanted to see if Adam could get us a dedicated Covid19 forum set up. The threads on various subjects are getting posted every where right now. I've pmed him and asked.

    That should help some.

    ADDED: Last two subjects are now posted in the forums.

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  • Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - 10:57am

    MillenialFalcon

    MillenialFalcon

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 29 2016

    Posts: 14

    1+

    Re Salk

    The comment section here has gone nutty. There were 60,000 cases of polio in one year in the USA in 1952 before the vaccine. There were only 100 cases in the entire decade of the 1960s. And only 10 cases in the 1970s.   Just think about that For a few seconds...  This was pre genetic testing for viruses. Probably a lot more asymptomatic cases in the 50s...

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  • Sat, May 09, 2020 - 2:02pm

    Madnaija

    Madnaija

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 09 2020

    Posts: 1

    Madnaija said:

    Download Naija latest Songs from https://Madnaija.com

    Nice content

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  • Thu, May 21, 2020 - 6:56am

    #65
    Emmexdon

    Emmexdon

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2020

    Posts: 1

    Corona

    it is very stoppable

    https://zaloaded.com

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