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Off The Cuff: Rate Hike!

What does it portend?
Friday, December 18, 2015, 1:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Rate Hike!
    • The Fed raises interest rates for the 1st time in a decade
  • Shock Wave
    • Even a small rate increase can disrupt today's highly-leveraged economy
  • The Beginning Of The End
    • The 'Debt Is Good' Era May Finally Be Ending
  • Modern Game Of Thrones
    • How The Power Structure Clings To Its Control

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Pop! It’s Time.

The end of the (most recent) bubble era is here
Monday, December 14, 2015, 1:51 AM

The Federal Reserve is a serial bubble blower; and it has done it again. As we’ve been saying for a long time (too long, it seems), when this bubble comes apart, massive disruption and economic pain will follow.

Based on recent events, it seems that the time has finally arrived to say: This is it.

It’s done. Put a fork in it. It’s over. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Will She, Or Won't She?

Will the Fed raise rates for the 1st time in a decade?
Sunday, December 13, 2015, 2:13 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Sins Of The Past
    • We are approaching 2007 levels of instability
  • Credit Spread Warnings
    • Rising spreads are bad news for bonds
  • Slowing GDP
    • Weakness reigns in the face of the next Fed hike
  • Will She Or Won't She?
    • All eyes this week on Janet Yellen

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Using Gold to Protect Yourself In Advance of the Greatest Wealth Transfer of Our Lifetime

Where & how much to buy, when to sell
Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 12:52 PM

Executive Summary

  • Calculating the "floor" beneath which gold will likely not fall
  • The coming Great Wealth Transfer, which almost certainly will occur in our lifetime
  • How much to invest in gold
  • How to invest in gold
  • Exit strategies: when will it make sense to sell your holdings? And what should you exchange them for?

If you have not yet read The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Floor

The one place that I most like to buy something is as close to its replacement value as I can.  And the replacement value for gold is both below its current price of $1,080 and rising steadily. There’s a floor under the price of gold which, like any mined substance, is determined by the cost to get more of it out of the ground.

As has been true for all mining and oil production, the all-in costs of getting gold out of the ground have been rising, and rising sharply, for many years.  Currently the all-in cost to produce gold, across the whole industry, is more than $1,200 per ounce.

Here in late 2015 we are seeing lots of signs of obvious distress among gold producers because the price of gold is below their cost of production.  This will cause supply to... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: What The Rich Are Worrying About

Chris reports from his tour of high net worth conferences
Friday, December 4, 2015, 3:01 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • What The Rich Are Worrying About
    • Return 'of' capital, vs return 'on'
  • The Future Of The Dollar & Gold
    • Both are likely to rise materially over the next year
  • Why Should We Fear Deflation?
    • Most of us should welcome it
  • Market Psychology Is Reversing
    • Fear is starting to overwhelm greed

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Murder And Mayhem In The Middle East

Why it matters to those living in the West
Monday, November 30, 2015, 9:03 PM

To understand what’s happening in Syria right now, you have to understand the tactics and motivations of the US and NATO -- the three parties sharing interwoven aims and goals in the Middle East/North African (MENA) region.

The main point here is that as resources become tight, the ruling powers can be expected to act in increasingly desperate ways. » Read more

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Off the Cuff: The Fed Is Scared

Nomi Prins provides first-hand evidence
Saturday, November 28, 2015, 4:38 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Nomi Prins discuss:

  • Rumor-Driven Markets
    • All that matters now is what folks think the central banks will do
  • The Fed Is Scared
    • Out of ideas and increasingly out of options
  • The Trump Card
    • The weakening economy will eventually trump delusional markets
  • Anxiety Builds
    • Lots of signs that those in the game want to get out

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Why The Coming Currency Crisis Will Push The USD Higher

Which will crush stocks
Wednesday, November 25, 2015, 1:11 PM

Executive Summary

  • Other currencies are inflating faster than the USD
  • The USD is still backed by a preponderance of the world's assets
  • The potential for a global currency crisis is rising
  • Why USD will be the (initial) safe haven when it arrives

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the technical evidence in support of a second move higher in a multi-year U.S. dollar rally. Here in Part 2, we ask: What conditions might drive such a move higher?

To answer this question, let’s start with another question: What’s scarce in the world of foreign exchange (FX)?

We ask this because capital, profits and gains flow to what’s scarce and in demand. This boils down to supply and demand: gains go to whatever is in high demand and scarce, and whatever is not in demand and over-supplied will lose value.

Supply and Demand

Like every other commodity, currencies respond to supply and demand: whatever currency is scarce and in demand will rise, while currencies that are in oversupply and not in demand will decline.

Though many presume the world is awash in dollars as a result of Federal Reserve quantitative easing, the reality is that expansion of USD via bank loans (credit) and Fed money-creation is modest compared to the expansion of other global currencies such as China’s renminbi (RMB), a.k.a. yuan.

Consider this chart of bank credit expansion in the U.S. and in China since the onset of the “Great Recovery” in early 2009: China’s bank credit has soared by 260%, a sum that is roughly 140% of China’s entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while U.S. bank credit rose by a modest 12% of U.S. GDP.

If we compare M2 money supply, we find... » Read more

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Russian Jet Shot Down By NATO Member

A very dangerous provocation by NATO
Tuesday, November 24, 2015, 2:35 PM

This morning two Turkish F-16 fighters shot down a Russian jet, claiming that it was in Turkey’s airspace after it had ignored repeated warnings.

There are two problems with this story. The first is that Russia claims to have evidence that the Russian jet never left Syrian airspace.  The second is that even if the Russian jet had strayed into Turkish airspace, Turkey knew there was zero threat to its security from a single Russian jet. Everybody and their uncle knows what Russian jets are doing in the area.

This means that NATO, of which Turkey is a member, had given a greenlight to the idea of shooting down Russian planes. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Race For The Exit

Everybody's dancing near the doorway
Friday, November 20, 2015, 4:18 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Fab 5
    • Without these 5 stocks, the S&P would be negative for the year
  • The "Positive" Impact Of The Paris Attacks
    • Are they kidding???
  • The Insatiable Military Industrial Complex
    • Crisis is being fabricated to keep it fed
  • Housing Is Looking Sick
    • More and more weakness is showing

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more