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Oil Is Sinking The Markets

Subprime comparisons are now too obvious to ignore
Monday, January 25, 2016, 7:47 PM

A vast, enormous amount of junk-rated oil debt is in deep trouble. Everybody knows this, but saying so has been taboo up until now, at least in polite conversations.

But the parallels to the sub-prime market's role as the "pin that popped the bubble" in 2008 are now too obvious to ignore. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like 2008

Liquidity is drying up & the banks are weakening fast
Thursday, January 21, 2016, 3:16 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • It's Looking Like 2008 All Over Again
    • Liquidity is drying up & the banks are weakening fast
  • Oil At The Epicenter
    • The ripple effect of the losses will be wider than anyone expects
  • Financial Sector Leading The Way Down
    • The banks are getting hammered for their loan exposure
  • Gold Set To Shine Again
    • Will 2016 finally see a safety-driven rebound?
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And.....It's Gone!

Market value everywhere is vaporizing fast
Wednesday, January 20, 2016, 12:00 PM

The deflation monster was evident across the global markets today, and the possibility of a market crash remains as high as ever.

In the overnight session on Tuesday, everything fell apart.

We can now clearly see the tracks of the deflation monster stomping across the world stage. While a retreat into bonds (safety) has happened, that’s just the normal first reaction to such a terrible financial situation.  However, those bonds will prove to be roach motels as the next stage of this monster will be massive bond defaults of all varieties. » Read more

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Why This Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008

And what you can do to prepare
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

Executive Summary

  • There are too many signs of deflation to deny it's winning the day
  • Why China's weakening will accelerate the global economy's decent
  • Why this next crisis will be worse than 2008
  • What will it look like if things really get out of control (how bad could things get?)
  • The best investments to be making now, before the rout

If you have not yet read The Deflation Monster Has Arrived, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Too Many Warning Signs To Talk About

The deflationary monster is here and there are almost too many warning signs to list, let alone fully describe.

So I’ll just list and link them…you can follow up on the details if you want, it’s the ‘general vibe’ I want to get across.

Here are the signs of a weak economy that we are dealing with:

The pattern here is one of rapidly slowing economic activity and mounting pain starting “from the outside in” as emerging markets and the poor people within the core countries bear the brunt at first. Things always get rolling to the downside starting with the weakest, peripheral elements first.

Copper and oil are providing very clear signs that economic activity is not just slow, but in rapid retreat. Wal-Mart tells us that its shoppers are having trouble. The fresh all-time lows in a variety of currencies, plus massive weakness in others, is telling us that the virtuous portion of the liquidity cycle that the Fed, et al., unleashed on the world has entered the vicious part of the cycle.

The pain will spread to the center with increasing speed. The main question is if the authorities can stop that before the momentum becomes too great to halt? And what will happen if they cannot?

The answer to that is... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: A Lot Of Deterioration...

The global economy's woes have worsened quickly
Thursday, January 14, 2016, 2:26 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • A Lot Of Deterioration
    • Why 2016 is off to a very grim start
  • There Will Be Blood
    • The carnage from the drop in oil prices will be horrific
  • Ugly, Ugly Data
    • The economic numbers are shouting sickness worldwide
  • Gold
    • Why 2016 will mark the low
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Why A Crash Is Likely

And why we've passed Peak Easy
Friday, January 8, 2016, 1:41 AM

Executive Summary

  • Why a crash is likely
  • Why the machines have won, and regular investors should flee these markets
  • Why the coming oil company bankruptcies will trigger a deflationary rout
  • Why we've passed Peak Easy

If you have not yet read Markets Are Correcting Hard, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Larger Lesson (Why A Crash Is Likely)

Look, the financial markets are broken -- the US, in China, and largely everywhere else around the globe. The sad fact is that the regulators have utterly failed to impose any meaningful limits on the rise of the computers and their high frequency hi-jinks.

Now those computers dominate the entire market landscape for better and, eventually, worse.

The reason I say ‘worse’ is because the computers deliver the appearance, but not the reality, of market liquidity.

As long as they detect that everything is operating normally, or at least within their accepted bands or limits, then they indeed provide plenty of liquidity. But when events exceed those limits?

The computers just shut down, revealing the true lack of market depth. The key story of all markets, bonds, commodities, futures and equities, is that each has experienced a vast diminishment of liquidity.

Share volumes are down on the equity exchanges as fewer and fewer participants are willing play a rigged game. That’s not just... » Read more

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The Deflationary Wave Builds

2016 is already off to a worrisome start
Tuesday, January 5, 2016, 2:32 AM

Well, the New Year got off to a rocky start in the world markets.  Why it has taken so long for the equity markets to react to an obvious weakening global economic environment is beyond us.  We write that knowing that it may take even longer still for reality to catch up to the world’s financial markets.

Part of the reason for the delay, of course, is that the world’s central banks have been fighting off reality with a coordinated series of actions designed to prop up financial markets for as long as possible. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: An Economy Of Bureaucracy

It what we now have. But it can't last much longer.
Saturday, January 2, 2016, 5:41 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Why We're Headed For A Systemic Reset
    • Too much bloat
  • An Economy Of Bureaucracy
    • No bureaucracy ever reduced itself by choice
  • Why We Need To Starve The System
    • Opt out with our energy and our dollars
  • Why We'll Need To Do More With Less
    • Much of "business as usual" won't be around for much longer
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Putting Our Health Into Our Own Hands

The (very doable) basics of prevention
Tuesday, December 29, 2015, 3:34 PM

Executive Summary

  • The obesity epidemic
  • Failings of the national healthcare system
  • New models for obtaining care
  • The basics of prevention

If you have not yet read The Rising Threats To Our Health, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed some of the major global health issues that will challenge households, economies and nation-states around the world as the global population ages and lifestyle/pollution/age-related chronic diseases affect hundreds of millions of people.

In Part 2, we look at issues that are specific to the U.S. and other developed economies, and consider the impacts of these issues on us as individuals: the bottom line is prevention is in our court.

Overweight/Obesity

While many of the problems listed in Part 1 are found mostly in developing economies (severe pollution, etc.), many others are pressing issues in both developing and developed economies (smoking, chronic lifestyle disorders such as metabolic syndrome, hypertension, heart disease, etc.)

The U.S. leads the world in percentages of overweight (generally defined as a body mass index (BMI) of over 25) and obese (BMI over 30) residents, though a number of countries are close behind.

While the specific causes of metabolic syndrome (pre-diabetes) and the causal connections of obesity to other conditions such as inflammation, sleep disorders, etc. are still under investigation, it’s clear that... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Over Our Skis

Why a wipe-out is likely soon
Thursday, December 24, 2015, 6:31 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • More & More Bad Data
    • Recent economic metrics are terrible
  • Over Our Skis
    • A return to recession is pretty much baked in the cake for 2016
  • Signs Of A Consumer Slowdown
    • Chris shares some intelligence from Amazon
  • The Big Short
    • A good reminder of the risks we're living under